Papers by Crispin Emmanuel Diaz
Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 2017
Asian Transport Studies, 2022
Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 2010
This paper identifies empirically the institutional spillover effects stemming from the road cons... more This paper identifies empirically the institutional spillover effects stemming from the road construction project funded by foreign aid and analyzes the mechanism of the effects by examining the behavioral process of the main actors including the donor, recipient, consultant company and local organizations. The Circumferential Road No.3 Construction Project in Manila, Philippines is used for the case study. First, we examine the project purposes, the project processes and the project results by reviewing pertinent literature and by interviewing local stakeholders. Then, we analyze the institutional spillover observed in the projects. We focus on the single key event in the case and examine the spillover effects by identifying the major actors, mapping the institutional mechanisms/organizations involved, and investigating the key event.
The charging of fees for the use of infrastructure facilities such as toll roads necessarily pric... more The charging of fees for the use of infrastructure facilities such as toll roads necessarily prices out potential users whose willingness-to-pay is exceeded by the toll fees that are charged. This means that economic gains, such as travel time and vehicle operating cost savings, may not be realized for those who have been priced-out. It becomes necessary to verify if the cost-recovery aspect does not adversely affect the project's economic viability. A description of the current level of willingness Philippine motorists to pay for the use of toll roads is presented and the implication of the current toll fees structures is discussed. Some lessons from the Philippine case are presented.
Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 2005
The FX type of para-transit service emerged about ten years ago and has become a significant part... more The FX type of para-transit service emerged about ten years ago and has become a significant part of the public transport system. However, in its current form, the operations are not complying with the actual permissions granted by the public transport regulatory agencies. Bringing operations in line with existing franchise requirements appear as challenges to continued existence in current form. Based on the financial analysis conducted considering passenger occupancy and fare structure, it appears that the FX operations under recently proposed regimes will lose the financial viability that they currently enjoy. Although these results are based on information on services between Manila City and Quezon City only, these results provide an indication of the possible outcome. In support of its continued existence, it is proposed that FX services be placed under the Filcab classification, allowing continued service similar to their present condition, but under a rationalized allocation of the service.
Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 2010
Charging for the use of toll roads consequently prices-out potential users whose willingness-to-p... more Charging for the use of toll roads consequently prices-out potential users whose willingness-to-pay is exceeded by toll fees that are charged. Therefore, economic gains such as travel time and vehicle operating cost savings will not be realized for those who have been priced-out. This reduction in the number of users may weaken the project's economic feasibility and financial viability. This presents a challenge to implementing projects though Public-Private-Partnership arrangements. A decision framework integrating objectives of the public sector and private proponent was proposed and applied to a prospective bypass road project. The analysis showed that the project was not viable for PPP within the current limits to public contribution to PPP projects. However, this test application demonstrated that it is possible, using a joint analysis of economic viability of the project and financial viability for the private partner, to show the feasible range of arrangements suitable wi...
In 2003, as part of the City of Manila’s urban renewal program, a section of Rizal Avenue, which ... more In 2003, as part of the City of Manila’s urban renewal program, a section of Rizal Avenue, which is a major national arterial road, was pedestrianized, thereby closing the road to vehicular traffic. Because of this, vehicles that were originally traveling along this road section were diverted to the adjacent local streets which do not have enough capacity to handle heavy traffic volumes. Coupled with heavy volumes of pedestrians and high roadside friction in the downtown area, this resulted in massive congestion and travel delays. Commuters have also suffered with the increase in in-vehicle and out-of-vehicle travel time. On the part of the jeepney drivers, the re-routing meant longer travel distances, hence additional fuel consumption, but without a corresponding increase in fares. This paper attempts to estimate these costs brought about by the project to gain an understanding of its impact on society.
Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 2011
Many researches and foreign case studies have shown that the provision of amenities in public tra... more Many researches and foreign case studies have shown that the provision of amenities in public transportation facilities can help increase public transport ridership. However, the range of public transport terminal amenities is broad and diverse, such that it would be too costly and impractical to include all of them in any terminal, especially in the Philippine setting. Thus, a study was undertaken to determine the terminal conditions and amenities preferred by the trip makers, specifically those within the central business districts. Preferences of trip-makers to/from Makati CBD on up to 15 terminal amenities had been collected through on-site and email surveys. The data was processed and analyzed to identify some patterns or trends in these preferences which could help improve the planning of terminal facilities.
Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 2011
The archipelagic nature of the Philippines gives rise to relatively unique transportation system ... more The archipelagic nature of the Philippines gives rise to relatively unique transportation system requirements. As a result, travel demand models from other countries may not be entirely applicable to an inter-island scenario. The objective of this paper is to identify the determinants of mode choice for inter-island travellers in the Philippines, using data describing travel between Manila and Busuanga Island, where the main choices for travellers that were considered were air travel and sea travel. Using data from a stated preference experiment conducted on ship travellers, this paper applies binary choice logit models to evaluate the impact of fare differences, trip characteristics and the socio-economic attributes of respondents on their mode choice.
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2017
A model of modal choice and destination choice was developed to simulate urban travel demand in D... more A model of modal choice and destination choice was developed to simulate urban travel demand in Davao City, Philippines, and to evaluate fare-setting scenarios relevant to the possible introduction of a new public transportation (PT) system. This nested logit model, combining modal choice and destination choice, was estimated with local person trip survey data collected in 2015 that included data points on 3,531 households, 7,639 individuals, and 15,372 trips. Then, six fare scenarios were developed, incorporating four elements of the fare system, boarding charge, per-kilometer charge, charge distance, and transfer charge, based on the fare system in use in the Philippines. Five evaluation indexes were then applied: average individual benefit, new PT operator’s profit, social surplus, modal share of PT, and regional equity with respect to accessibility. The results demonstrated that ( a) a lower fare increases an individual’s benefit from the trip, ( b) a new PT operator’s profit as...
Built Environment Project and Asset Management, 2013
Purpose – The purpose of this study is to compare revenue guarantee programs in a build-operation... more Purpose – The purpose of this study is to compare revenue guarantee programs in a build-operation-transfer project (BOT). Two types of revenue guarantee programs are formulated: a payment-based annual revenue guarantee program and a period-extension-based cumulative revenue guarantee program. Design/methodology/approach – Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the real option approach. This method is applied to a toll road project in the Philippines wherein the expected payoffs of the government and the concessionaire are simulated over an evaluation period that includes the concession period. The condition under which the expected government return in one program is equal to that in the other program is shown. These programs are then evaluated by incorporating a project risk factor into the project return. Findings – The results show that the cumulative revenue guarantee program is preferred to the annual revenue guarantee program. However, the optimal solution depends on the gove...
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2010
This paper examines the institutional spillover effect observed in a port development project fun... more This paper examines the institutional spillover effect observed in a port development project funded by foreign aid by using the Batangas Port Development Project in the Philippines as a case study. The project's purposes, processes, and results were examined by reviewing the literature and interviewing local actors. Next, the focus was on the key single event—demolition—to identify the institutional impact. In the project planning process, the local executing agency experienced difficulty in finding suitable relocation sites for affected residents. Together with some nongovernmental organizations, local residents started to oppose the project. The donor requested that the executing agency find a peaceful solution in negotiations with opposition groups. Although the executing agency made great efforts—including the introduction of an interagency committee—to build a consensus with the local opposition groups, the group finally demolished residential structures without notifying ...
… Research Board 91st …, 2012
This study proposes a method to compare revenue guarantee programs in a build-operation-transfer ... more This study proposes a method to compare revenue guarantee programs in a build-operation-transfer project. Two types of revenue guarantee programs are formulated: a payment-based annual revenue guarantee program and a period-extension-based cumulative revenue guarantee program. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the real option approach. This method is applied to a toll road project in the Philippines wherein the expected payoffs of the government and the concessionaire are simulated over an evaluation period that includes the concession period. The condition under which the expected government return in one program is equal to that in the other program is shown. These programs are then evaluated by incorporating a project risk factor into the project return. The results show that for the analyzed project the cumulative revenue guarantee program is preferred to the annual revenue guarantee program. However, the optimal solution depends on the government's return-risk preference. Keywords Public-private partnership, Build-Operate-Transfer, toll road, annual revenue guarantee, cumulative revenue guarantee, Philippines, real option approach One of the most critical risks in BOT-based toll road project is the uncertainty of travel demand. To deal with demand-oriented risk, governments have adopted revenue guarantee programs in some cases. Vasallo (2) describes the revenue guarantee program as having two variables: the trigger variable and the compensation mode. The trigger variable is defined as what initiates the guarantee. When a trigger variable exceeds a predetermined threshold, the guarantee is activated while the compensation is carried out. The trigger variable is grouped into three types: (i) annual revenue, (ii) cumulative revenue, and (iii) profits/internal rate of return (IRR). The compensation mode is defined as the manner of compensating the concessionaire when required. This compensation mode is grouped into three modes: (i) payment, (ii) toll, and (iii) period extension. Theoretically, nine combinations may be derived using two of the aforementioned variables, but the "annual revenue plus payment" program and the "cumulative revenue plus period extension" program are the most widely adopted. This study deals with these two programs. This paper refers to these programs as payment-based annual revenue guarantee (PARG) program and the period-extension-based cumulative revenue guarantee (PCRG) program respectively. It is supposed that the government enters into a BOT contract with a concessionaire regarding investment in a toll road and its operation. The contract defines the share of project cost allocated to the government and the concessionaire. It also gives the concessionaire the right-to-operate over the toll road during the concession period while requiring the concessionaire to transfer its right to the government at the end of the concession period. It is assumed that the future traffic volume is forecasted by the government, but this volume is uncertain due to unknown factors. The PARG program is defined as a scheme whereby the contract predetermines the annual minimum revenue of the concessionaire. If the observed annual revenue proves to be lower than the predetermined minimum revenue in a given year, the gap between the observed revenue and the minimum revenue is refunded to the concessionaire in this year by the government. The decision concerning the refund is made every year by monitoring the annual revenue. On the other hand, the PCRG program is defined as a scheme whereby the contract allows the concessionaire to extend the concession period if a given condition is satisfied. The condition is typically that the cumulative revenue of the concessionaire does not reach the predetermined cumulative revenue in the last year of the concession period. The PARG program was introduced in the 1990s and was applied in many countries, including Korea, Colombia, Chile, and Malaysia. However, it has recently been losing popularity because it often resulted in contingent liabilities for the government. In contrast, the PCRG program has been growing in popularity. For example, two bridges in Lisbon, the Severn Crossing in the UK, and the least present value of revenues (LPVR) auctions in Chile adopted the PCRG program (2, 3, 4). The PCRG program does not require the government to pay monetary compensation to the concessionaire, even when it fails to earn the expected revenue; instead, the program requires the government to give the concessionaire the right to extend the concession period. Although the two revenue guarantee programs have been widely implemented in BOT contracts, no method has been proposed to compare them in a given project. This may leads to the wrong choice of the revenue guarantee mechanism in the project. It might be said that the government should prefer the PCRG to the PARG in any case because the PCRG does not require the government to pay any monetary compensation. However, it should be noted that, under the PCRG program, the governments pay an opportunity cost even if they are not required to pay monetary compensation. The opportunity cost comprises the expected toll revenue that the government could earn through the concessionaire with the termination of the concession period. This may hold true even if the contract requires the government to change from a toll to a toll-free arrangement after the concession period; the user benefit stemming from a toll-free operation could be regarded as one of the major factors the government is required to maximize. This paper aims to propose a method to compare the PARG with the PCRG in a given BOT project. It shows the condition under which the expected government payoff in the PCRG program is equal to that in the PARG program. It also suggests a suitable mechanism from a viewpoint of government risk-return preference. This paper uses the real option approach with Monte Carlo simulation in a case study. The case of a toll road project in the Philippines is used in the case study. The paper is organized as follows. The motivation for and goals of this study are explained in the first section. Next, the methodology is described. The PARG and PCRG are formulated and the real option approach using the Monte Carlo simulation is explained. Then, the case study is presented. The simulation results are summarized and their implications discussed. Finally, the conclusion mentions further research issues.
Proceedings of the …, 2005
Page 1. ALLOCATION OF ELECTRONIC TOLL COLLECTION LANES AT TOLL PLAZAS CONSIDERING SOCIAL OPTIMIZA... more Page 1. ALLOCATION OF ELECTRONIC TOLL COLLECTION LANES AT TOLL PLAZAS CONSIDERING SOCIAL OPTIMIZATION OF SERVICE TIMES AND DELAY Crispin Emmanuel D. Diaz Assistant Professor School of Urban ...
IATSS …, 1996
Home Contact Us Directory E-Newsletter Follow Us RSS, About TRB. Annual Meeting. Calendar. Commit... more Home Contact Us Directory E-Newsletter Follow Us RSS, About TRB. Annual Meeting. Calendar. Committees & Panels. Programs. Projects. Publications. Resources & Databases. TRID HOME. RECENTLY PUBLISHED. RECENTLY ADDED. ADVANCED SEARCH. ...
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Papers by Crispin Emmanuel Diaz