Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best av... more Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best available climate information. Climate projections, however, often inform adaptation strategies after being interpreted once or several times. This process affects the original message put forward by climate scientists when presenting the basic climate projections, in particular regarding uncertainties. The nature of this effect and its implications for decision-making are as yet poorly understood. This chapter explores the nature and consequences of (a) the communication tools used by scientists and experts and (b) changes in the communicated information as it travels through the decision-making process. It does so by analyzing observatories; the interpretative steps taken in a sample of 25 documents, pertaining to the field of public policies for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies. Five phases in the provisioning of climate information are distinguished: pre-exist...
Either partially or entirely, tourism is undoubtedly an inevitable part of those geophysical forc... more Either partially or entirely, tourism is undoubtedly an inevitable part of those geophysical forces that affects and is affected by (climate) changes characterising the Anthropocene. Response to this global scenario requires a systemic view about uncertainty affecting the tourism industry (e.g. geopolitical developments, political instability, legislation changes, economic crises, healthy risks, or changing consumers' trends). Conceptualising future challenges differently from the status quo might require a paradigm change, in which tourism education and research should have a pivotal role in transforming tourism favouring sustainability from transdisciplinary, critical, and holistic approaches. Although approaches for implementing environmental education in tourism programs vary from courses, conferences and classrooms debates about sustainability to total curriculum redesign, teaching tourism in the Anthropocene requires enforced guidance on conceptualisations, skills, tools, and methods to transform the tourism activity until it becomes sustainable. Therefore, the intersection of tourism and education is a robust framework for configuring an educational innovation agenda in tourism that contains both the tourism industry' s challenges and the primary reflections from students and researchers about the future of tourism regarding sustainability and climate change scenarios. However, both universities and the tourism sector are shaped by the current world development, so the paradox is that they are both shaped by reality while they have the potential to change it. This paradox presents a challenge for tourism educators to be part of the world and not distant from it by promoting new technologies, fieldwork, and students' involvement approaches. This challenge could be emphasised to overcome traditional education limitations, focused on acquiring theoretical knowledge and monolithic thinking without exchanging perspectives about sustainable development principles. The lack of practical application of learning could demotivate students, and this claims to adapt teaching methodologies to student learning preferences while considering that instructors should no longer be seen as mere content transmitters. Consequently, education should be strongly aligned with active and participatory learning processes (including first-person experiences) because it encourages learners to ask critical reflective questions, clarify values, envision more positive futures, think systemically, respond through applied learning, and explore dialectics. Teaching tourism from sustainability requires educators and researchers to develop innovative pedagogic practices such as contextualised knowledge, problem-based learning, improvisational workshops and case study to develop tools and acquire skills focused on thinking transversally and systemically about sustainability of the tourism industry. This Special Issue, entitled Teaching tourism in the Anthropocene, aims to provide examples of consistent progress on methods, tools, and approaches related to environmental challenges and sustainable gaps when teaching and learning on tourism. This collection emphasizes the relevance of new technologies, fieldwork, and students' involvement to deepen how new paradigms in teaching tourism could respond more efficiently to local and global tourism demands and environmental challenges occurring in the Anthropocene. Although this Special Issue' s content is directly addressed to an academic and research audience, the aim is to engage a broader audience to understand teaching tourism from an anthropocentric perspective. The reason is simple: it is essential to educate and investigate effectively, but also it is necessary to communicate effectively, which implies connecting with the public and promoting knowledge exchange beyond academia.
Introduction In recent decades, signs of the increasing human influence on the Earth’s systems ha... more Introduction In recent decades, signs of the increasing human influence on the Earth’s systems have become stronger. Paul Crutzen (see e.g. Crutzen, 2002) and others even argue that we have entered a new geological epoch: the age of man or Anthropocene. Humankind has interfered with the Earth’s processes so much that the results will likely be clearly visible in the sediment layers that are currently forming. Scientific debate has shifted from discussing the justification of using the term to defining which anthropogenic signatures in the geological record fulfil the formal requirements for the recognition of such a new epoch (Lewis and Maslin, 2015). If these are fulfilled, the Holocene, with its stable and benign climate fostering humanity as we know it, is over and we have entered an epoch of human-caused change. The earthly processes that humans affect range from the global climate to local biota. Humanity has upset the climate system, primarily by burning fossil fuels. Humanity appropriates more than half the Earth’s primary production and uses a large share of the Earth’s land, leading to large-scale extinctions of plant and animal species as outlined by Michael C. Hall (this volume). In addition, the large-scale use of chemical fertilizers has fundamentally changed the nitrogen and phosphorous cycles. Growing populations and increasing irrigation have lowered ground water levels around the world (Ehrlich et al., 2012; Rockstrom et al., 2009). Humanity lives beyond the means that the Earth systems provide, which is not sustainable in the long run. The challenge is to reorganize society in such a way as to respect the planet’s ecological boundaries. Tourism will have to do its share. In this chapter, we discuss the role of tourism in affecting the earthly processes, in particular the climate system. The chapter presents the mitigation challenge that tourism is facing, and analyses if and how tourism can meet the necessary reduction targets while remaining an economically healthy sector.
The Routledge Handbook of Tourism and Sustainability, 2015
Lamers, M., Eijgelaar, E., & Amelung, B. (2015). The Environmental Challenges of Cruise T... more Lamers, M., Eijgelaar, E., & Amelung, B. (2015). The Environmental Challenges of Cruise Tourism: Impacts and Governance. In C. M. Hall, S. Gössling & D. Scott (Eds.), The Routledge Handbook of Tourism and Sustainability (pp. 430-439). Abingdon, UK: Routledge.
The PESETA research project integrates a set of high-resolution climate change projections and ph... more The PESETA research project integrates a set of high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modelling framework to quantify the impacts of climate change on vulnerable aspects of Europe. Four market impact categories are considered (agriculture, river floods, coastal systems, and tourism) and one non-market category (human health). Considering the market impacts, without public adaptation and if the climate of the 2080s occurred today, the EU annual welfare loss would be in the range of 0.2% to 1%, depending on the climate scenario. However, there is large variation across different climate futures, EU regions and impact categories. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and higher sea level rise result in more severe economic damage for the EU. Southern Europe, the British Isles and Central Europe North appear to be the most sensitive regions to climate change. Northern Europe is the only region with net economic benefits, mainly driven by the positi...
This study explores the effects of observed changes in rainfall, temperature and land cover on th... more This study explores the effects of observed changes in rainfall, temperature and land cover on the physical and sightseeing aspects of trekking in Kilimanjaro National Park. The impact analysis is organised around hazard-activity pairs approach, combinations of environmental change aspects (such as higher temperatures) and tourism activities (such as trekking and sightseeing). The results suggest that higher temperatures and reduced rainfall have lowered the risks of landslides, rock fall and mountain sickness, improving physical trekking conditions. Changes in land cover have affected sightseeing: there now are more flowers and groundsels to admire and less wildlife, waterfalls and snow. In the short term, the disappearing snow may give rise to "last chance tourism", increasing visitation, but eventually, the loss of snow and forest cover will likely decrease the number of tourists. The paper concludes that effective management of the attractions in the expanding heathlands is the most promising option to limit the losses.
Kolguev Island in the Russian Arctic has a unique tundra ecosystem and an indigenous Nenets popul... more Kolguev Island in the Russian Arctic has a unique tundra ecosystem and an indigenous Nenets population whose livelihood is traditionally based on reindeer herding. The Nenets faced a major crisis in 2013-2014 when the reindeer population collapsed. Widely different explanations for this collapse were put forward. This lack of a shared perspective points at the failure of genuine joint knowledge production (JKP) in the island's UNEP-GEF's ECORA project (2004-2009). The ECORA project aimed to achieve integrated ecosystem management by stimulating dialog and mutual learning among indigenous people, state agencies, and scientists. This paper analyses the failure of ECORA's JKP, using a recently developed framework of conditions for successful JKP. The results suggest that ECORA met none of these conditions. It failed at bringing the scientific and indigenous knowledge systems together, and the produced knowledge did not resonate with indigenous people's perception of living in Kolguev.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2016
Tourism is at the same time a major contributor to and victim of global environmental problems ... more Tourism is at the same time a major contributor to and victim of global environmental problems Addressing tourism's environmental challenges requires a socio-ecological systems approach Agent-based (ABM) modelling unpacks the links between people's travel decisions and the tourism system as a whole ABM provides a platform for integrating knowledge, disciplines and stakeholders ABM is a strong tool for characterising and assessing the dynamics of tourism's sustainability issues
Coastal regions and islands are among the most popular tourist destinations. They are also highly... more Coastal regions and islands are among the most popular tourist destinations. They are also highly vulnerable to climate change. Much of the literature on vulnerability, including IPCC reports, states that vulnerability is dynamic. However, vulnerability conceptualisations in the tourism realm have so far taken a static perspective. Static conceptualisation underestimates inherent uncertainties stemming from actor interactions (with one another and their environment) and processes. The interactions and processes are important for developing adaptive strategies in a dynamic world. Hence, frameworks for analysing tourism vulnerability as a dynamic phenomenon are urgently needed. This paper outlines the first steps taken towards a dynamic approach for analysing vulnerability of Caribbean coastal tourism. The approach consists of (1) a conceptual framework focusing on human-human and human-environment interactions at the actor level and (2) an evolutionary methodology. The methodology engages both Caribbean climate change experts and regional actors. Regional actors both respond to and help develop the framework through interactive, or companion, modelling. By focusing on interactions and processes, the approach is expected to yield key insights into the development of vulnerability through time, crucial information for adaptive management.
Antarctica attracts tourists who want to explore its unique nature and landscapes. Antarctic tour... more Antarctica attracts tourists who want to explore its unique nature and landscapes. Antarctic tourism has rapidly grown since 1991 and is currently picking up again after the recent global economic downturn. Tourism activities are subject to the rules of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) and the decisions made by the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties (ATCPs), but within this context, the industry has considerable freedom to self-organise. The industry is self-regulated by a voluntary member-based group, the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO). Researchers and policy-makers express concern about IAATO's ability to deal with further tourism development and the environmental consequences. This study applies a new approach to understand what affects self-regulation, consisting of a literature review and agent-based modelling (ABM). The review identifies four challenges for self-regulation: operator commitment, tourism growth, operator diversification, and accidents. The ABM simulations help conceptualise the complex concepts and theories surrounding self-regulation. Self-regulation is measured by the capacity of the simulated self-regulatory system to maintain a majority membership at the end of 20 years. The model suggests that a number of the challenges are nonlinear and have tipping points. This approach provides insights that industry officials and policy-makers can use to proactively regulate Antarctic tourism.
Agent-based modelling (ABM) is an emerging approach in tourism research. Despite the natural fit ... more Agent-based modelling (ABM) is an emerging approach in tourism research. Despite the natural fit between theories of tourism as a complex, interconnected system, and the generative approach supported in ABM, there has been only limited integration within mainstream tourism research. This research letter reports on a recent gathering of tourism ABM researchers to define the main challenges that face the adoption of ABM in tourism research. These include technical, communications, and novelty issues. In response to these challenges, three potential strategies to ease adoption are outlined: education, awareness, and interdisciplinary teams. These findings are framed as a call for increased attention to the fit of ABM within tourism research, and a framework for negotiating constraints to adoption of this technology.
Much research has been devoted to quantifying optimal or unacceptable climate conditions both gen... more Much research has been devoted to quantifying optimal or unacceptable climate conditions both generally and for specific tourism segments or activities over the last 10 years. This knowledge is not incorporated in the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), which has also been subject to other substantial critiques. To more accurately assess the climatic suitability of destinations for leisure tourism, the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) was developed. A major advancement of the HCI is that its variable rating scales and the component weighting system are based on this aforementioned literature of tourists' stated climatic preferences. This paper will discuss the design of the HCI and how the limitations of the TCI were overcome. It then presents an inter-comparison of the results from HCI:Urban and TCI for geographically diverse urban destinations across Europe. The results illustrate how the HCI:Urban rates the climate of many cities higher than the TCI, particularly in shoulder seasons and the winter months, which is more consistent with observed visitation patterns. The results empirically demonstrate that use of the TCI should be discontinued.
Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a way of representing complex systems of autonomous agents or actor... more Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a way of representing complex systems of autonomous agents or actors, and of simulating the multiple potential outcomes of these agents’ behaviors and interactions in the form of a range of alternatives or futures. Despite the complexity of the tourism system, and the power and flexibility of ABM to overcome the assumptions such as homogeneity, linearity, equilibrium, and rationality typical of traditional modeling techniques, ABM has received little attention from tourism researchers and practitioners. The purpose of this paper is to introduce ABM to a wider tourism audience. Specifically, the appropriateness of tourism as a phenomenon to be subjected to ABM is established; the power and benefits of ABM as an alternative scientific mechanism are illuminated; the few existing applications of ABM in the tourism arena are summarized; and, a range of potential applications in the areas of tourism planning, development, marketing and management is proposed.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2016
In the Arctic region global environmental change creates economic opportunities for various secto... more In the Arctic region global environmental change creates economic opportunities for various sectors, which is increasing pressure on marine biological resources. Next to state governance arrangements, informational governance instruments deployed by non-state actors, such as private certification schemes, mapping exercises and observation systems, play a progressive role in introducing ecosystem-based approaches for governing the marine environment. In this paper we review recent academic literature to understand the role of environmental information in Arctic marine governance. Our review reveals that environmental information may on one hand enable safe or sustainable operations of actors by creating legitimacy and building trust, while on the other hand the participation and empowerment of some actors may constrain other actors, leading to conflict and controversy. We conclude that the growing importance of environmental information in Arctic marine governance is driven both by state management systems and non-state actors, that currently the enabling role of information dominates the literature, but that the constraining role of information will likely increase in future Arctic marine governance.
The Russian Barents Sea represents a celebrated example of sustainable fisheries management owing... more The Russian Barents Sea represents a celebrated example of sustainable fisheries management owing to effective and stable bilateral cooperation between Norway and Russia. The success of the state regime has not ruled out the emergence of private certification of the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC). The current study investigates the intended and unintended implications of the emergence and implementation of MSC certification in the Russian Barents Sea region. The employed conceptual framework builds on the literature on private informational governance, more specifically by providing an analytical prism of three core concepts: transparency, participation and trust. Based on interviews with stakeholders closely involved in MSC certification in Russia and literature analysis, this study concludes that MSC performs primarily a supplementary commercial function for Russian Barents Sea fisheries, which are already generally considered as sustainable, by ensuring access to the world market of sustainable fish and potentially providing a premium price. The certification mechanism has little to add to the wellestablished practices at sea, but it does urge companies to prioritise attention to such environmental issues as bycatch, discards and negative effects of bottom trawling through encouraging cooperation between fishing companies, NGOs and research institutions. Our analysis also suggests that indirectly MSC certification contributes to a growing divide between larger-scale, internationally oriented, distantwater fishing companies and the smaller-scale coastal fisheries dependent on state support. Finally, our analysis draws attention to the distrust of the Russian state in transnational private governance arrangements, like MSC, the implications of which are currently unclear.
• Rejoinder to claims of Shani and Arad (2014) • Extent of scientific consensus on climate change... more • Rejoinder to claims of Shani and Arad (2014) • Extent of scientific consensus on climate change indicated • Evidence for climate change is observational and predictive • Extent of tourism related emissions indicated • Concern of climate denial for scientific debate and communication ABSTRACT Shani and Arad (2014) claimed that tourism scholars tend to endorse the most pessimistic assessments regarding climate change, and that anthropogenic climate change was a fashionable and highly controversial scientific topic. This brief rejoinder provides the balance that is missing from such climate change denial and skepticism studies on climate change and tourism. Recent research provides substantial evidence that reports on anthropogenic climate change are accurate, and that humaninduced greenhouse gas emissions, including from the tourism industry, play a significant role in climate change. Some positive net effects may be experienced by some destinations in the short-term, but in the long-term all elements of the tourism system will be impacted. The expansion of tourism emissions at a rate greater than efficiency gains means that it is increasingly urgent that the tourism sector acknowledge, accept and respond to climate change. Debate on tourism-related adaptation and mitigation measures is to be encouraged and welcomed. Climate change denial is not.
Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best av... more Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best available climate information. Climate projections, however, often inform adaptation strategies after being interpreted once or several times. This process affects the original message put forward by climate scientists when presenting the basic climate projections, in particular regarding uncertainties. The nature of this effect and its implications for decision-making are as yet poorly understood. This chapter explores the nature and consequences of (a) the communication tools used by scientists and experts and (b) changes in the communicated information as it travels through the decision-making process. It does so by analyzing observatories; the interpretative steps taken in a sample of 25 documents, pertaining to the field of public policies for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies. Five phases in the provisioning of climate information are distinguished: pre-exist...
Either partially or entirely, tourism is undoubtedly an inevitable part of those geophysical forc... more Either partially or entirely, tourism is undoubtedly an inevitable part of those geophysical forces that affects and is affected by (climate) changes characterising the Anthropocene. Response to this global scenario requires a systemic view about uncertainty affecting the tourism industry (e.g. geopolitical developments, political instability, legislation changes, economic crises, healthy risks, or changing consumers' trends). Conceptualising future challenges differently from the status quo might require a paradigm change, in which tourism education and research should have a pivotal role in transforming tourism favouring sustainability from transdisciplinary, critical, and holistic approaches. Although approaches for implementing environmental education in tourism programs vary from courses, conferences and classrooms debates about sustainability to total curriculum redesign, teaching tourism in the Anthropocene requires enforced guidance on conceptualisations, skills, tools, and methods to transform the tourism activity until it becomes sustainable. Therefore, the intersection of tourism and education is a robust framework for configuring an educational innovation agenda in tourism that contains both the tourism industry' s challenges and the primary reflections from students and researchers about the future of tourism regarding sustainability and climate change scenarios. However, both universities and the tourism sector are shaped by the current world development, so the paradox is that they are both shaped by reality while they have the potential to change it. This paradox presents a challenge for tourism educators to be part of the world and not distant from it by promoting new technologies, fieldwork, and students' involvement approaches. This challenge could be emphasised to overcome traditional education limitations, focused on acquiring theoretical knowledge and monolithic thinking without exchanging perspectives about sustainable development principles. The lack of practical application of learning could demotivate students, and this claims to adapt teaching methodologies to student learning preferences while considering that instructors should no longer be seen as mere content transmitters. Consequently, education should be strongly aligned with active and participatory learning processes (including first-person experiences) because it encourages learners to ask critical reflective questions, clarify values, envision more positive futures, think systemically, respond through applied learning, and explore dialectics. Teaching tourism from sustainability requires educators and researchers to develop innovative pedagogic practices such as contextualised knowledge, problem-based learning, improvisational workshops and case study to develop tools and acquire skills focused on thinking transversally and systemically about sustainability of the tourism industry. This Special Issue, entitled Teaching tourism in the Anthropocene, aims to provide examples of consistent progress on methods, tools, and approaches related to environmental challenges and sustainable gaps when teaching and learning on tourism. This collection emphasizes the relevance of new technologies, fieldwork, and students' involvement to deepen how new paradigms in teaching tourism could respond more efficiently to local and global tourism demands and environmental challenges occurring in the Anthropocene. Although this Special Issue' s content is directly addressed to an academic and research audience, the aim is to engage a broader audience to understand teaching tourism from an anthropocentric perspective. The reason is simple: it is essential to educate and investigate effectively, but also it is necessary to communicate effectively, which implies connecting with the public and promoting knowledge exchange beyond academia.
Introduction In recent decades, signs of the increasing human influence on the Earth’s systems ha... more Introduction In recent decades, signs of the increasing human influence on the Earth’s systems have become stronger. Paul Crutzen (see e.g. Crutzen, 2002) and others even argue that we have entered a new geological epoch: the age of man or Anthropocene. Humankind has interfered with the Earth’s processes so much that the results will likely be clearly visible in the sediment layers that are currently forming. Scientific debate has shifted from discussing the justification of using the term to defining which anthropogenic signatures in the geological record fulfil the formal requirements for the recognition of such a new epoch (Lewis and Maslin, 2015). If these are fulfilled, the Holocene, with its stable and benign climate fostering humanity as we know it, is over and we have entered an epoch of human-caused change. The earthly processes that humans affect range from the global climate to local biota. Humanity has upset the climate system, primarily by burning fossil fuels. Humanity appropriates more than half the Earth’s primary production and uses a large share of the Earth’s land, leading to large-scale extinctions of plant and animal species as outlined by Michael C. Hall (this volume). In addition, the large-scale use of chemical fertilizers has fundamentally changed the nitrogen and phosphorous cycles. Growing populations and increasing irrigation have lowered ground water levels around the world (Ehrlich et al., 2012; Rockstrom et al., 2009). Humanity lives beyond the means that the Earth systems provide, which is not sustainable in the long run. The challenge is to reorganize society in such a way as to respect the planet’s ecological boundaries. Tourism will have to do its share. In this chapter, we discuss the role of tourism in affecting the earthly processes, in particular the climate system. The chapter presents the mitigation challenge that tourism is facing, and analyses if and how tourism can meet the necessary reduction targets while remaining an economically healthy sector.
The Routledge Handbook of Tourism and Sustainability, 2015
Lamers, M., Eijgelaar, E., & Amelung, B. (2015). The Environmental Challenges of Cruise T... more Lamers, M., Eijgelaar, E., & Amelung, B. (2015). The Environmental Challenges of Cruise Tourism: Impacts and Governance. In C. M. Hall, S. Gössling & D. Scott (Eds.), The Routledge Handbook of Tourism and Sustainability (pp. 430-439). Abingdon, UK: Routledge.
The PESETA research project integrates a set of high-resolution climate change projections and ph... more The PESETA research project integrates a set of high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modelling framework to quantify the impacts of climate change on vulnerable aspects of Europe. Four market impact categories are considered (agriculture, river floods, coastal systems, and tourism) and one non-market category (human health). Considering the market impacts, without public adaptation and if the climate of the 2080s occurred today, the EU annual welfare loss would be in the range of 0.2% to 1%, depending on the climate scenario. However, there is large variation across different climate futures, EU regions and impact categories. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and higher sea level rise result in more severe economic damage for the EU. Southern Europe, the British Isles and Central Europe North appear to be the most sensitive regions to climate change. Northern Europe is the only region with net economic benefits, mainly driven by the positi...
This study explores the effects of observed changes in rainfall, temperature and land cover on th... more This study explores the effects of observed changes in rainfall, temperature and land cover on the physical and sightseeing aspects of trekking in Kilimanjaro National Park. The impact analysis is organised around hazard-activity pairs approach, combinations of environmental change aspects (such as higher temperatures) and tourism activities (such as trekking and sightseeing). The results suggest that higher temperatures and reduced rainfall have lowered the risks of landslides, rock fall and mountain sickness, improving physical trekking conditions. Changes in land cover have affected sightseeing: there now are more flowers and groundsels to admire and less wildlife, waterfalls and snow. In the short term, the disappearing snow may give rise to "last chance tourism", increasing visitation, but eventually, the loss of snow and forest cover will likely decrease the number of tourists. The paper concludes that effective management of the attractions in the expanding heathlands is the most promising option to limit the losses.
Kolguev Island in the Russian Arctic has a unique tundra ecosystem and an indigenous Nenets popul... more Kolguev Island in the Russian Arctic has a unique tundra ecosystem and an indigenous Nenets population whose livelihood is traditionally based on reindeer herding. The Nenets faced a major crisis in 2013-2014 when the reindeer population collapsed. Widely different explanations for this collapse were put forward. This lack of a shared perspective points at the failure of genuine joint knowledge production (JKP) in the island's UNEP-GEF's ECORA project (2004-2009). The ECORA project aimed to achieve integrated ecosystem management by stimulating dialog and mutual learning among indigenous people, state agencies, and scientists. This paper analyses the failure of ECORA's JKP, using a recently developed framework of conditions for successful JKP. The results suggest that ECORA met none of these conditions. It failed at bringing the scientific and indigenous knowledge systems together, and the produced knowledge did not resonate with indigenous people's perception of living in Kolguev.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2016
Tourism is at the same time a major contributor to and victim of global environmental problems ... more Tourism is at the same time a major contributor to and victim of global environmental problems Addressing tourism's environmental challenges requires a socio-ecological systems approach Agent-based (ABM) modelling unpacks the links between people's travel decisions and the tourism system as a whole ABM provides a platform for integrating knowledge, disciplines and stakeholders ABM is a strong tool for characterising and assessing the dynamics of tourism's sustainability issues
Coastal regions and islands are among the most popular tourist destinations. They are also highly... more Coastal regions and islands are among the most popular tourist destinations. They are also highly vulnerable to climate change. Much of the literature on vulnerability, including IPCC reports, states that vulnerability is dynamic. However, vulnerability conceptualisations in the tourism realm have so far taken a static perspective. Static conceptualisation underestimates inherent uncertainties stemming from actor interactions (with one another and their environment) and processes. The interactions and processes are important for developing adaptive strategies in a dynamic world. Hence, frameworks for analysing tourism vulnerability as a dynamic phenomenon are urgently needed. This paper outlines the first steps taken towards a dynamic approach for analysing vulnerability of Caribbean coastal tourism. The approach consists of (1) a conceptual framework focusing on human-human and human-environment interactions at the actor level and (2) an evolutionary methodology. The methodology engages both Caribbean climate change experts and regional actors. Regional actors both respond to and help develop the framework through interactive, or companion, modelling. By focusing on interactions and processes, the approach is expected to yield key insights into the development of vulnerability through time, crucial information for adaptive management.
Antarctica attracts tourists who want to explore its unique nature and landscapes. Antarctic tour... more Antarctica attracts tourists who want to explore its unique nature and landscapes. Antarctic tourism has rapidly grown since 1991 and is currently picking up again after the recent global economic downturn. Tourism activities are subject to the rules of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) and the decisions made by the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties (ATCPs), but within this context, the industry has considerable freedom to self-organise. The industry is self-regulated by a voluntary member-based group, the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO). Researchers and policy-makers express concern about IAATO's ability to deal with further tourism development and the environmental consequences. This study applies a new approach to understand what affects self-regulation, consisting of a literature review and agent-based modelling (ABM). The review identifies four challenges for self-regulation: operator commitment, tourism growth, operator diversification, and accidents. The ABM simulations help conceptualise the complex concepts and theories surrounding self-regulation. Self-regulation is measured by the capacity of the simulated self-regulatory system to maintain a majority membership at the end of 20 years. The model suggests that a number of the challenges are nonlinear and have tipping points. This approach provides insights that industry officials and policy-makers can use to proactively regulate Antarctic tourism.
Agent-based modelling (ABM) is an emerging approach in tourism research. Despite the natural fit ... more Agent-based modelling (ABM) is an emerging approach in tourism research. Despite the natural fit between theories of tourism as a complex, interconnected system, and the generative approach supported in ABM, there has been only limited integration within mainstream tourism research. This research letter reports on a recent gathering of tourism ABM researchers to define the main challenges that face the adoption of ABM in tourism research. These include technical, communications, and novelty issues. In response to these challenges, three potential strategies to ease adoption are outlined: education, awareness, and interdisciplinary teams. These findings are framed as a call for increased attention to the fit of ABM within tourism research, and a framework for negotiating constraints to adoption of this technology.
Much research has been devoted to quantifying optimal or unacceptable climate conditions both gen... more Much research has been devoted to quantifying optimal or unacceptable climate conditions both generally and for specific tourism segments or activities over the last 10 years. This knowledge is not incorporated in the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), which has also been subject to other substantial critiques. To more accurately assess the climatic suitability of destinations for leisure tourism, the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) was developed. A major advancement of the HCI is that its variable rating scales and the component weighting system are based on this aforementioned literature of tourists' stated climatic preferences. This paper will discuss the design of the HCI and how the limitations of the TCI were overcome. It then presents an inter-comparison of the results from HCI:Urban and TCI for geographically diverse urban destinations across Europe. The results illustrate how the HCI:Urban rates the climate of many cities higher than the TCI, particularly in shoulder seasons and the winter months, which is more consistent with observed visitation patterns. The results empirically demonstrate that use of the TCI should be discontinued.
Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a way of representing complex systems of autonomous agents or actor... more Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a way of representing complex systems of autonomous agents or actors, and of simulating the multiple potential outcomes of these agents’ behaviors and interactions in the form of a range of alternatives or futures. Despite the complexity of the tourism system, and the power and flexibility of ABM to overcome the assumptions such as homogeneity, linearity, equilibrium, and rationality typical of traditional modeling techniques, ABM has received little attention from tourism researchers and practitioners. The purpose of this paper is to introduce ABM to a wider tourism audience. Specifically, the appropriateness of tourism as a phenomenon to be subjected to ABM is established; the power and benefits of ABM as an alternative scientific mechanism are illuminated; the few existing applications of ABM in the tourism arena are summarized; and, a range of potential applications in the areas of tourism planning, development, marketing and management is proposed.
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2016
In the Arctic region global environmental change creates economic opportunities for various secto... more In the Arctic region global environmental change creates economic opportunities for various sectors, which is increasing pressure on marine biological resources. Next to state governance arrangements, informational governance instruments deployed by non-state actors, such as private certification schemes, mapping exercises and observation systems, play a progressive role in introducing ecosystem-based approaches for governing the marine environment. In this paper we review recent academic literature to understand the role of environmental information in Arctic marine governance. Our review reveals that environmental information may on one hand enable safe or sustainable operations of actors by creating legitimacy and building trust, while on the other hand the participation and empowerment of some actors may constrain other actors, leading to conflict and controversy. We conclude that the growing importance of environmental information in Arctic marine governance is driven both by state management systems and non-state actors, that currently the enabling role of information dominates the literature, but that the constraining role of information will likely increase in future Arctic marine governance.
The Russian Barents Sea represents a celebrated example of sustainable fisheries management owing... more The Russian Barents Sea represents a celebrated example of sustainable fisheries management owing to effective and stable bilateral cooperation between Norway and Russia. The success of the state regime has not ruled out the emergence of private certification of the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC). The current study investigates the intended and unintended implications of the emergence and implementation of MSC certification in the Russian Barents Sea region. The employed conceptual framework builds on the literature on private informational governance, more specifically by providing an analytical prism of three core concepts: transparency, participation and trust. Based on interviews with stakeholders closely involved in MSC certification in Russia and literature analysis, this study concludes that MSC performs primarily a supplementary commercial function for Russian Barents Sea fisheries, which are already generally considered as sustainable, by ensuring access to the world market of sustainable fish and potentially providing a premium price. The certification mechanism has little to add to the wellestablished practices at sea, but it does urge companies to prioritise attention to such environmental issues as bycatch, discards and negative effects of bottom trawling through encouraging cooperation between fishing companies, NGOs and research institutions. Our analysis also suggests that indirectly MSC certification contributes to a growing divide between larger-scale, internationally oriented, distantwater fishing companies and the smaller-scale coastal fisheries dependent on state support. Finally, our analysis draws attention to the distrust of the Russian state in transnational private governance arrangements, like MSC, the implications of which are currently unclear.
• Rejoinder to claims of Shani and Arad (2014) • Extent of scientific consensus on climate change... more • Rejoinder to claims of Shani and Arad (2014) • Extent of scientific consensus on climate change indicated • Evidence for climate change is observational and predictive • Extent of tourism related emissions indicated • Concern of climate denial for scientific debate and communication ABSTRACT Shani and Arad (2014) claimed that tourism scholars tend to endorse the most pessimistic assessments regarding climate change, and that anthropogenic climate change was a fashionable and highly controversial scientific topic. This brief rejoinder provides the balance that is missing from such climate change denial and skepticism studies on climate change and tourism. Recent research provides substantial evidence that reports on anthropogenic climate change are accurate, and that humaninduced greenhouse gas emissions, including from the tourism industry, play a significant role in climate change. Some positive net effects may be experienced by some destinations in the short-term, but in the long-term all elements of the tourism system will be impacted. The expansion of tourism emissions at a rate greater than efficiency gains means that it is increasingly urgent that the tourism sector acknowledge, accept and respond to climate change. Debate on tourism-related adaptation and mitigation measures is to be encouraged and welcomed. Climate change denial is not.
The period leading to and immediately after the release of the IPCC’s fifth series of climate cha... more The period leading to and immediately after the release of the IPCC’s fifth series of climate change assessments saw substantial efforts by climate change denial interests to portray anthropogenic climate change (ACC) as either unproven theory or a negligible contribution to natural climate variability, including the relationship between tourism and climate change. This paper responds to those claims by stressing that the extent of scientific consensus suggests that human-induced warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Secondly, it responds in the context of tourism research and ACC, highlighting tourism’s significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, as well as climate change’s potential impacts on tourism at different scales. The paper exposes the tactics used in ACC denial papers to question climate change science by referring to non-peer reviewed literature, outlier studies and misinterpretation of research, as well as potential links to think-tanks and interest groups. The paper concludes that climate change science does need to improve its communication strategies but that the world-view of some individuals and interests likely precludes acceptance. The connection between ACC and sustainability illustrates the need for debate on adaptation and mitigation strategies, but that debate needs to be grounded in scientific principles not unsupported skepticism.
Shani and Arad (2014) claimed that tourism scholars tend to endorse the most pessimistic assessme... more Shani and Arad (2014) claimed that tourism scholars tend to endorse the most pessimistic assessments regarding climate change, and that anthropogenic climate change was a “fashionable” and “highly controversial scientific topic”. This brief rejoinder provides the balance that is missing from such climate change denial and skepticism studies on climate change and tourism. Recent research provides substantial evidence that reports on anthropogenic climate change are accurate, and that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, including from the tourism industry, play a significant role in climate change. Some positive net effects may be experienced by some destinations in the short-term, but in the long-term all elements of the tourism system will be impacted. The expansion of tourism emissions at a rate greater than efficiency gains means that it is increasingly urgent that the tourism sector acknowledge, accept and respond to climate change. Debate on tourism-related adaptation and mitigation measures is to be encouraged and welcomed. Climate change denial is not.
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Papers by Bas Amelung
Keywords: climate change denial; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); climate change consensus; climate models; climate change mitigation; greenhouse gas emissions