Papers by ömer uğur bulut
DergiPark (Istanbul University), Aug 27, 2023
Sağlıklı bir toplumun varlığı için, bireylerin gereksinim duyduğu sağlık hizmetlerinin sunulması ... more Sağlıklı bir toplumun varlığı için, bireylerin gereksinim duyduğu sağlık hizmetlerinin sunulması gerekmektedir. Ülke içerisinde kamu idaresinin, özel kesimin, sivil toplum ve bireylerin sağlık hizmetlerine yönelik gerçekleştirdiği bütün harcamalar, sağlık harcamalarını oluşturmaktadır. Bu araştırmanın amacı, Türk sağlık sistemi içerisinde yapılan sağlık harcamaları ile sağlık hizmeti kullanım düzeyi arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesidir. Çalışmamız, herhangi bir saha çalışmasını veya bireyler üzerinde bir girişim yapılmasını gerekli kılmadığından etik kurul izni gerektiren bir çalışma değildir. Türkiye'ye ait 2002-2020 yılları arasındaki sağlık istatistik yıllığı verilerinin kullanıldığı çalışmada, sağlık hizmeti kullanım düzeyi için; yatak doluluk oranı ve hasta memnuniyet oranı değişkenleri; sağlık harcamaları içinse cari sağlık harcamaları, kişi başına sağlık harcamaları ve yatırım harcamaları seçilmiştir. Söz konusu değişkenlere yönelik oluşturulan ekonometrik modellerin tahmininde ve diğer analizlerde Vektör Otoregresif Model (VAR) kullanılmıştır. Yapılan ekonometrik analizler neticesinde; Türkiye gerçekleşen cari sağlık harcamalarının, sağlık kurumlarındaki yatak doluluk oranını pozitif yönde etkileyerek %14 oranında arttırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak; sağlık harcamaları ve sağlık hizmeti kullanım düzeyi arasında çok boyutlu ve farklı etki derecelerine sahip bir ilişki olduğu ortaya konulmuştur.
Journal of business theory and practice, May 26, 2017
In our study, the selected financial liberalization and pre-crisis indicators which is inspired b... more In our study, the selected financial liberalization and pre-crisis indicators which is inspired by the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart known as KLR approach is analyzed. For Turkish economy, the completion of the financial liberalization process in the time interval after 1989, the effects of shock, causality relationship and interact with each of these indicators is surveyed through the VAR model and Toda-Yamamoto test. The purpose of this study to show that financial liberalization indicators of hot money movements, real interest rates and credit growth triggered the crisis which were experienced in Turkey after 1989 by adversely effecting the pre-crisis indicators. In addition to this purpose, the most effective indicators of financial liberalization on pre-crisis indicators will be determined for Turkish economy. According to VAR model and Toda-Yamamoto causality test, the negative impact on the pre-crisis indicators, description of these indicators percentage and the causality relationship of hot money movements and real interest rates are more than the credit growth. The results will give ideas on policy makers in Turkey about the effectiveness of the financial liberalization in economic crises.
International journal of business and social research, Dec 17, 2016
We investigate the impact of the hot money movements on current account and real sector leading c... more We investigate the impact of the hot money movements on current account and real sector leading crisis indicators under VAR (Vector Autoregressive) framework using quarterly data for a long period of 1991-2014. Our findings show that hot money movements have negative impact on current account deficit and foreign trade deficit pre-crisis indicators. We further show that they lead to instability in growth and inflation pre-crisis indicators.
Kafkas üniversitesi iktisadi ve idari bilimler fakültesi dergisi, Dec 31, 2019
The research seeks to analyze the current account deficit in Turkish economy between 2006 and 201... more The research seeks to analyze the current account deficit in Turkish economy between 2006 and 2018 on the financial resources by taking into account the sustainability conditions. To this end, we have not restricted the current account deficit with a single indicator. In the research, where four different Vector Autoregressive Models have been created, Zivot-Andrews unit root test has been utilized to see the impact of structural changes in the relevant period. The availability and effectiveness of the financing sources that impact the sustainability of the current account deficit as a policy tool have been analyzed by utilizing the method of Impulse-Response and Variance Decomposition in these models. The empirical findings have indicated that the current account deficit in Turkish economy between 2006-2018 was financed by rather hot money movements and shortterm external debt that have speculative and fragile structure. These results indicate that growth should be disregarded for reducing current account deficit to sustainable level for Turkish economy.
Çalışmada finansal liberalizasyonun istihdam yaratıcı etkisinin Türkiye ekonomisi özelinde zaman ... more Çalışmada finansal liberalizasyonun istihdam yaratıcı etkisinin Türkiye ekonomisi özelinde zaman serisi modelleriyle analiz edilmesine odaklanılmıştır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda çalışmanın ampirik analiz bölümünde finansal liberalizasyonu temsilen KOF finansal küreselleşme endeksi ile istihdam oranlarının uzun dönem ilişkisi ve bu ilişkinin derecesi test edilmiştir. Finansal liberalizasyonun uzun dönemde istihdam oranları üzerindeki etkinliği için Johansen Eşbütünleşme testi, uzun dönem katsayıların analizi için ise FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, 1988/2017 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisinde KOF finansal küreselleşme endeksi ile istihdam oranları arasında uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir. FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR testlerine göre, KOF finansal küreselleşme endeksinin istihdam oranlarını uzun dönemde azaltıcı etkisinin olduğu görülmüştür. Bu sonuçlar, finansal liberalizasyonun uzun dönemde istihdam oranlarını etkilediğine, ancak istihdam oranlarının ilgili dönemde negatif yönlü bir tepki verdiğine işaret etmektedir.
Sosyo ekonomi, Jan 31, 2023
In this study, the determinant of volatility expectations in the markets, which the VIX index can... more In this study, the determinant of volatility expectations in the markets, which the VIX index can determine, in other words, the scale of investors' fear about the markets on hot money movements and foreign direct investments, is investigated. The long-term relationship between the variables included in the research has been determined by Maki cointegration analysis, considering multiple structural breaks. The structural break periods determined in the Maki test have been included in the model as dummy variables, and the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) tests have been used. The coefficients calculated in the empirical analysis reveal the negative and reducing effect of the structural break periods and the VIX volatility index, more in hot money movements. Finally, it has been seen that the effects of structural break periods determined in multiple structural break tests on foreign direct investments and hot money inflows are decreasing.
Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi
The objective of the study is to assess the asymmetric effect of electricity consumption on econo... more The objective of the study is to assess the asymmetric effect of electricity consumption on economic growth. In this context, the scope of the study in this regard includes information about the Turkish economy from 2005 to 2020. With the aid of quarterly data, two different approaches have been used in econometric analysis. In order to increase the predictive power of the analysis, the industrial production index has been used in the models as independent variable. In models where economic growth is the dependent variable, the asymmetric effect of electricity consumption is reflected by the NARDL model, and the causality relationship is reflected by the Toda-Yamamoto test. The NARDL model results show a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables of the empirical application, and the analysis's findings support this. Conversely, it has been seen that positive changes in electricity consumption boost growth, and negative changes in consumption diminish growth, bot...
Turkiye ekonomisi 1980’lerden sonra sermaye hareketlerine getirilen kisitlamalari kaldirmis ve bu... more Turkiye ekonomisi 1980’lerden sonra sermaye hareketlerine getirilen kisitlamalari kaldirmis ve bu baglamda uluslararasi ekonomi ile butunlesmistir. Zamanla disa bagimlilik duzeyi her gecen yil artan ulke ekonomisinde, makroekonomik gostergelerde bozulmalar meydana gelmis, ekonomik ve finansal krizler yasanmis ve dis soklara karsi daha kirilgan bir yapi olusmustur. Bu calisma ile Turkiye’de sermaye hareketleri kalemlerinden spekulatif ve kirilgan bir yapiya sahip olan sicak para hareketleri bilesenlerinin tutarliligi ve ekonomik buyume ile iliskisi 1998-2017 donem araligi icin ilgili degiskenlere ait ceyrek donemlik veriler yardimiyla ekonometrik olarak ortaya konulmaya calisilmistir. Yapilan ekonometrik calisma sonuclari; sicak para hareketleri bilesenleri ile ekonomik buyume arasinda uzun donemde esbutunlesik bir iliski oldugunu ve ilgili bilesenlerden ekonomik buyumeye dogru tek yonlu nedensellik iliskisi bulundugunu ortaya koymustur. Ayrica, olusturulan vektor hata duzeltme model...
Calismada finansal liberalizasyonun istihdam yaratici etkisinin Turkiye ekonomisi ozelinde zaman ... more Calismada finansal liberalizasyonun istihdam yaratici etkisinin Turkiye ekonomisi ozelinde zaman serisi modelleriyle analiz edilmesine odaklanilmistir. Bu amac dogrultusunda calismanin ampirik analiz bolumunde finansal liberalizasyonu temsilen KOF finansal kuresellesme endeksi ile istihdam oranlarinin uzun donem iliskisi ve bu iliskinin derecesi test edilmistir. Finansal liberalizasyonun uzun donemde istihdam oranlari uzerindeki etkinligi icin Johansen Esbutunlesme testi, uzun donem katsayilarin analizi icin ise FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yontemleri kullanilmistir. Elde edilen bulgulara gore, 1988/2017 donemi Turkiye ekonomisinde KOF finansal kuresellesme endeksi ile istihdam oranlari arasinda uzun donemde istatistiksel olarak anlamli iliski oldugu tespit edilmistir. FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR testlerine gore, KOF finansal kuresellesme endeksinin istihdam oranlarini uzun donemde azaltici etkisinin oldugu gorulmustur. Bu sonuclar, finansal liberalizasyonun uzun donemde istihdam oranlarini etkiledigi...
Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2019
The research seeks to analyze the current account deficit in Turkish economy between 2006 and 201... more The research seeks to analyze the current account deficit in Turkish economy between 2006 and 2018 on the financial resources by taking into account the sustainability conditions. To this end, we have not restricted the current account deficit with a single indicator. In the research, where four different Vector Autoregressive Models have been created, Zivot-Andrews unit root test has been utilized to see the impact of structural changes in the relevant period. The availability and effectiveness of the financing sources that impact the sustainability of the current account deficit as a policy tool have been analyzed by utilizing the method of Impulse-Response and Variance Decomposition in these models. The empirical findings have indicated that the current account deficit in Turkish economy between 2006-2018 was financed by rather hot money movements and shortterm external debt that have speculative and fragile structure. These results indicate that growth should be disregarded for reducing current account deficit to sustainable level for Turkish economy.
Kafkas Universitesi Veteriner Fakultesi Dergisi, 2019
Turkish economy may have removed restrictions on capital movements and within this context it has... more Turkish economy may have removed restrictions on capital movements and within this context it has integrated the international economy since the 1980s. The level of dependence on the outside of the country's economy has increased, macroeconomic indicators have deteriorated, economic crises have occurred, and a more fragile structure against external shocks has emerged. In this study, stability of hot money movements components which have a fragile structure from speculative capital movements' components in Turkey and the relationship with economic growth have tried to be presented econometrically with the help of the quarterly data for the period between 1998-2017. Longterm cointegrated relationship between the components of the hot money movements and economic growth, and one-way causality relationship from the related components to economic growth is obtained. Vector Error Correction model has shown that the long-term relationship between the components of hot money movements and economic growth provides a temporary stability.
Journal of Business Theory and Practice, 2017
In our study, the selected financial liberalization and pre-crisis indicators which is inspired b... more In our study, the selected financial liberalization and pre-crisis indicators which is inspired by the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart known as KLR approach is analyzed. For Turkish economy, the completion of the financial liberalization process in the time interval after 1989, the effects of shock, causality relationship and interact with each of these indicators is surveyed through the VAR model and Toda-Yamamoto test. The purpose of this study to show that financial liberalization indicators of hot money movements, real interest rates and credit growth triggered the crisis which were experienced in Turkey after 1989 by adversely effecting the pre-crisis indicators. In addition to this purpose, the most effective indicators of financial liberalization on pre-crisis indicators will be determined for Turkish economy. According to VAR model and Toda-Yamamoto causality test, the negative impact on the pre-crisis indicators, description of these indicators percentage and the causality relationship of hot money movements and real interest rates are more than the credit growth. The results will give ideas on policy makers in Turkey about the effectiveness of the financial liberalization in economic crises.
International Journal of Business and Social Research, 2016
We investigate the impact of the hot money movements on current account and real sector leading c... more We investigate the impact of the hot money movements on current account and real sector leading crisis indicators under VAR (Vector Autoregressive) framework using quarterly data for a long period of 1991-2014. Our findings show that hot money movements have negative impact on current account deficit and foreign trade deficit pre-crisis indicators. We further show that they lead to instability in growth and inflation pre-crisis indicators.
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Papers by ömer uğur bulut