Papers by Wilfried Rickels
Wirtschaftsdienst, 2021
Die Klimakonferenz hat erneut gezeigt, dass es einfacher ist, sich auf internationaler Ebene auf ... more Die Klimakonferenz hat erneut gezeigt, dass es einfacher ist, sich auf internationaler Ebene auf allgemeine und möglichst in der Zukunft liegende, unverbindliche Emissionsreduktionsziele zu einigen-so wie 2015 in Paris-als auf kurzfristige, konkrete Maßnahmen für einzelne Länder. Anders als das Kyoto-Protokoll statuiert das Übereinkommen von Paris keine einzelstaatlichen quantifi zierten Emissionsreduktionspfl ichten (Rickels et al., 2020) und Vertragsparteien sind völkerrechtlich nicht individuell verpfl ichtet, die von ihnen notifi zierten national festgelegten Beiträge auch zu erreichen (Mayer, 2018). Sie müssen "nur" bestmögliche Bemühungen anstellen sowie geeignete Maßnahmen treffen, um das kollektive Ziel der Temperaturbegrenzung zu erreichen (Voigt, 2016). So sind viele der kritischen Kommentare verfehlt, da sie den schwierigen, multilateralen Prozess an einer falschen Erwartungshaltung messen. Bemerkenswert ist, dass viele kleine, aber echte Fortschritte erzielt wurden, die wenn sie umgesetzt werden, die Lücke zum 1,5 °C-Ziel reduzieren.
... Trading Scheme - Can we expect an efficient allowance market 2008? by Wilfried Rickels, Vicki... more ... Trading Scheme - Can we expect an efficient allowance market 2008? by Wilfried Rickels, Vicki Duscha, Andreas Keller, and Sonja Peterson No. 1387 | November 2007 Page 2. ... 2008? by Wilfried Rickels, Vicki Duscha, Andreas Keller, and Sonja Peterson November 2007 ...
Under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), operators must surrender allowances c... more Under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), operators must surrender allowances corresponding to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from their installations. The supply of allowances in the EU ETS decreases linearly and, all else equal, is expected to end around 2057. An earlier cutoff date is likely to follow from the European Council's recent decision that the EU should reach net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Scenarios published by the European Commission even anticipate a net-negative cap in the EU ETS from 2045 onwards, generated through carbon dioxide (CO 2) removals. Upholding emissions trading, in the long run, therefore entails significant use of credits resulting from atmospheric CO 2 removal activities. However, in its current form, the ETS Directive does not contain any legal basis for generating CO 2 removal credits. Integrating CO 2 removal into the EU ETS would, thus, require fundamental amendments of the ETS Directive, waiving the currently mandatory association binding emitting activities to the adoption of emission abatement technologies. The next policy window for such amendments will open in 2021, following the decision on a more ambitious EU 2030 emission reduction target. This conceptual paper explores various design options for integrating negative emissions technologies (NETs) into the EU ETS. We discuss their potential implications for emissions trading at large and address the specificity of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): repealing the provision that installations exclusively using biomass are not covered by the ETS Directive, BE(CCS) installations could in principle fall within the scope of the ETS Directive. Theoretically, it would be possible to consider free allocation of biogenic credits to BE(CCS) installations. Bioenergy operators could avoid having to surrender these biogenic allowances through the use of CCS and instead sell them on the EU ETS market, having implicitly received credits for the removal of CO 2 from the atmosphere.
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.
Klimawandel in Deutschland, 2016
Engineering the climate via Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is increasingly considered as a comp... more Engineering the climate via Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is increasingly considered as a component of future climate policies. We study the strategic incentives for countries to choose the level of SRM at different times in the future, accounting for the regionally uneven effect of SRM on climate variables, heterogeneous preferences of countries for the state of the global climate, and climate change adjusted GDP growth rates. We find that even though some countries would have significant gains from realizing their individually preferred level of SRM, the economic incentives for many countries are not sufficient to consider unilateral SRM implementation to be beneficial. In contrast, several countries have strong incentives to join coalitions to prevent that too much SRM is applied. The likely scenario is that a coalition will set a level of SRM close to the global efficient level.
Christoph M. Schmidt, RWI und Ruhr-Universitat Bochum, sieht in der Ratsprasidentschaft Deutschla... more Christoph M. Schmidt, RWI und Ruhr-Universitat Bochum, sieht in der Ratsprasidentschaft Deutschlands eine Moglichkeit, einen Neuaufbruch der europaischen Klimapolitik einzuleiten, mit einem einheitlichen und umfassenden CO2-Preis als Leitinstrument des European Green Deal. Dass die weltweiten Emissionen selbst im Zuge der Coronakrise nur moderat zuruckgegangen seien, verdeutliche zudem, dass die globalen klimapolitischen Anstrengungen bislang viel zu gering waren. Andreas Loschel, Universitat Munster, und Karen Pittel, ifo Institut, schlagen eine allgemeine Bepreisung von CO2 als zentrales Instrument zur effizienten Erreichung der Klimaziele vor. Der insbesondere in Deutschland begonnene Prozess der umfassenden CO2-Bepreisung sollte durch Corona-Pandemie und aktuelle Wirtschaftskrise nicht ins Stocken geraten. Im Gegenteil: Bestehe Einigkeit uber hohere EU-Klimaziele, dann sollten hohere CO2-Preise das Instrument der Wahl fur die Politik sein. Andere Ansatze zur Erreichung der Klima...
Das klassische und das erweiterte Drei-Säulen-Modell 1.6 > Im klassischen Drei-Säulen-Modell werd... more Das klassische und das erweiterte Drei-Säulen-Modell 1.6 > Im klassischen Drei-Säulen-Modell werden Ökologie, Ökonomie und Soziales als gleichberechtigte Stützen der Nachhaltigkeit dargestellt. Dieses Modell, Ende der 1990er Jahre entwickelt, hatte das Ziel, einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung den Weg zu ebnen. Ihm liegt die Auffassung zugrunde, dass ökonomische, soziale und ökologische Belange zusammenhängen und im Sinne einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung eine untrennbare Einheit bilden. Eine Weiterentwicklung ist das sogenannte gewichtete Drei-Säulen-Modell. Um die große Bedeutung der Ökologie hervorzuheben, wird sie in dem Entwurf als Fundament dargestellt. Gebildet wird dieses von den beiden Faktoren natürliche Ressourcen und Klima. Auf dem Fundament ruhen die Säulen Ökonomie, Soziales und-neu hinzugekommen-Kultur. In den vergangenen 20 Jahren wurden noch zahlreiche Modifikationen des Drei-Säulen-Modells entwickelt. Kritisiert wird, dass die klassische Variante zwar eine Gleichberechtigung von Ökologie, Ökonomie und Sozialem anzeige, aber nicht umsetze. In vielen Fällen hätten wirtschaftliche Belange heute noch immer Vorrang vor ökologischen oder sozialen Maßnahmen.
Frontiers in Climate, 2021
In one of the central scenarios for meeting an European Union-wide net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) ... more In one of the central scenarios for meeting an European Union-wide net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target by 2050, the emissions cap in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) becomes net negative. Despite this ambition, no mechanism allows for the inclusion of CO2 removal credits (CRCs) in the EU ETS to date. Amending the EU ETS legislation is required to create enabling conditions for a net negative cap. Here, we conceptually discuss various economic, legal, and political challenges surrounding the integration of CRCs into the EU ETS. To analyze cap-and-trade systems encompassing negative emissions, we introduce the effective (elastic) cap resulting from the integration of CRCs in addition to the regulatory (inelastic) cap, the latter now being binding for the net emissions only. Given current cost estimates for BECCS and DACCS, minimum quantities for the use of removals, as opposed to ceilings as currently discussed, would be required to promote the near-term...
Nature Climate Change, 2021
Carbon sequestration and storage in mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass meadows is an essential ... more Carbon sequestration and storage in mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass meadows is an essential coastal ‘blue carbon’ ecosystem service for climate change mitigation. Here we offer a comprehensive, global and spatially explicit economic assessment of carbon sequestration and storage in three coastal ecosystem types at the global and national levels. We propose a new approach based on the country-specific social cost of carbon that allows us to calculate each country’s contribution to, and redistribution of, global blue carbon wealth. Globally, coastal ecosystems contribute a mean ± s.e.m. of US$190.67 ± 30 bn yr−1 to blue carbon wealth. The three countries generating the largest positive net blue wealth contribution for other countries are Australia, Indonesia and Cuba, with Australia alone generating a positive net benefit of US$22.8 ± 3.8 bn yr−1 for the rest of the world through coastal ecosystem carbon sequestration and storage in its territory.
Environmental Research Letters, 2021
Assessing climate policies involving temporary overshoot of temperature targets require an accura... more Assessing climate policies involving temporary overshoot of temperature targets require an accurate representation of carbon cycle and climate dynamics. Here, we compare temperature overshoot climate policies obtained with the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) integrated assessment model using two different climate-carbon cycle sub-models: First, the original DICE implementation, and second an implementation of the Finite Amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) simple climate model. We analyze in a cost-effectiveness framework the minimum abatement and carbon dioxide removal costs for compliance against a (future) ceiling on temperatures. In our set up, the magnitude of the overshoot is not limited by temperature impacts, but simply by the temperature dynamics such that from a certain compliance date onwards a temperature ceiling cannot be exceeded anymore. We show that the rather sluggish temperature response and underestimation of carbon sinks in the most recent version of DICE implies that the additional future temperature change after a cessation of a given CO2 emission scenario is significantly overestimated compared to the zero emission commitments obtained with FaIR and complex earth system models. However, investigating climate policies which allow for a temporary temperature overshoot, this inertia translates into more than twice as high optimal carbon price compared to FaIR and consequently in rather strict climate policies. For compliance with the 1.5°C target from 2100 onwards and non-CO2-warming of 0.2°C, the mean optimal carbon prices in the year 2030 are 173USD/tCO2 and 56USD/tCO2 for DICE and FaIR, respectively. Still, the dynamics towards the target suggest that improved understanding of and accounting for (limited) reversibility of vulnerable Earth system components is required to derive appropriate overshoot climate policies.
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative... more This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY
Environmental and Resource Economics, 2020
Most states have implemented quite strict measures designed to slow down the spread of the corona... more Most states have implemented quite strict measures designed to slow down the spread of the coronavirus among their populations. For most sectors, these measures have resulted in a significant reduction of economic activity, output, and hence also output-related emissions. Commitment to these measures, apparently regardless of the economic costs involved, is considered by some people to be a blueprint for the commitment required to mitigate climate change and to achieve the Paris climate targets. However, when it comes to devising an efficient climate policy, the differences between the two crises-cororonavirus and climate change-need to be taken more seriously than the similarities. Alarming have been the various calls to put a quick end to corona prevention measures and the restrictions they place on public and economic activity, indicative as they are of the priority accorded to high discount rates and the absence of precautionary thinking among policymakers. Both the differences between the two crises themselves and the similarities in the reluctance to focus on achieving (more) long-term benefits emphasize once again the need for long-term commitment to climate policies in line with agreed targets.
Environmental Research Letters, 2019
Intentionally removing carbon from the atmosphere with negative emission technologies (NETs) will... more Intentionally removing carbon from the atmosphere with negative emission technologies (NETs) will be important to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century and to limit global warming to 2°C or even 1.5°C (IPCC, 2018). Model scenarios that consider NETs as part of mitigation pathways are still largely restricted to afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), while the "[f]easibility and sustainability of [NETs] use could be enhanced by a portfolio of options deployed at substantial, but lesser scales, rather than a single option at very large scale" (IPCC 2018, p. 19). Here, we show the results from an anonymous expert survey, including 32 Earth-System-Model (ESM) experts and 18 Integrated-Assessment-Model (IAM) experts, about the role of NETs in future climate policies and about how well the various technologies are represented in current models. We find that they strongly support the view that technology portfolios are requires to achieve negative emissions, however, the responses show that the number and range of NETs that can be assessed in IAMs is small and that IAMs and ESMs are rather applied to analyze technologies separately than in combination. IAM experts in particular consider BECCS as part of a future NETs portfolio; but at the same time, all experts judge the constraints BECCS would face regarding future overall feasibility and more particularly regarding resource competition to be the highest. Regarding the assessment of constraints the ESM experts are much more skeptical than the IAM experts; they also think that the BECCS carbon removal pathways are less sufficiently represented in ESMs compared to what the IAM experts thinks about the representation in their models. Despite the perceived need for NETs portfolios, the range of NETs which can be assessed in IAMs is rather small and ocean NETs have, so far, mostly been overlooked by the IAM experts.
Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, 2019
ZusammenfassungEine rasche Reduktion der Treibhausgasemissionen ist essentiell, wenn ambitioniert... more ZusammenfassungEine rasche Reduktion der Treibhausgasemissionen ist essentiell, wenn ambitionierter Klimaschutz erreicht werden soll. Bei der Abschätzung der dafür notwendigen Anstrengungen und der Bewertung des zukünftigen Beitrags von Technologien, die es erlauben, der Atmosphäre CO2 zu entziehen (negative Emissionstechnologien, NETs), gehen die Meinungen und die Interpretationen des aktuellen Sonderberichts des Weltklimarats stark auseinander. Interpretationen, die sich auf eher große verbleibende CO2-Budgets stützen und damit gleichzeitig die Rolle von NETs für die Erreichung des Temperaturziels herunterspielen, führen nicht zu verantwortungsvollen oder realistischen Einschätzungen der zukünftigen (Forschungs-)Herausforderung: Wir müssen bereits jetzt die Wirksamkeit verschiedener NETs, ihre Grenzen und ihre Wechselwirkungen verstehen, wenn die international angestrebten CO2-Konzentrationspfade realistisch sein sollen. Eine verfrühte Festlegung auf bestimmte NETs sollte vermiede...
Marine Policy, 2019
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.
Earth's Future, 2018
To maintain the chance of keeping the average global temperature increase below 2 ∘ C and to limi... more To maintain the chance of keeping the average global temperature increase below 2 ∘ C and to limit long-term climate change, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) is becoming increasingly necessary. We analyze optimal and cost-effective climate policies in the dynamic integrated assessment model (IAM) of climate and the economy (DICE2016R) and investigate (1) the utilization of (ocean) CDR under different climate objectives, (2) the sensitivity of policies with respect to carbon cycle feedbacks, and (3) how well carbon cycle feedbacks are captured in the carbon cycle models used in state-of-the-art IAMs. Overall, the carbon cycle model in DICE2016R shows clear improvements compared to its predecessor, DICE2013R, capturing much better long-term dynamics and also oceanic carbon outgassing due to excess oceanic storage of carbon from CDR. However, this comes at the cost of a (too) tight short-term remaining emission budget, limiting the model suitability to analyze low-emission scenarios accurately. With DICE2016R, the compliance with the 2 ∘ C goal is no longer feasible without negative emissions via CDR. Overall, the optimal amount of CDR has to take into account (1) the emission substitution effect and (2) compensation for carbon cycle feedbacks.
Earth's Future, 2016
Radiation management (RM), as an option to engineer the climate, is highly controversial and suff... more Radiation management (RM), as an option to engineer the climate, is highly controversial and suffers from a number of ethical and regulatory concerns, usually studied in the context of the objective to mitigate the global mean temperature. In this article, we discuss the idea that RM can be differentiated and scaled in several dimensions with potential objectives being to influence a certain climate parameter in a specific region. Some short-lived climate forcers (e.g., tropospheric aerosols) exhibit strong geographical and temporal variability, potentially leading to limited-area climate responses. Marine cloud brightening and thinning or dissolution of cirrus clouds could be operated at a rather local scale. It is therefore conceivable that such schemes could be applied with the objective to influence the climate at a regional scale. From a governance perspective, it is desirable to avoid any substantial climate effects of regional RM outside the target region. This, however, could prove impossible for a sustained, long-term RM. In turn, regional RM during limited time periods could prove more feasible without effects beyond the target area. It may be attractive as it potentially provides the opportunity to target the suppression of some extreme events such as heat waves. Research is needed on the traceability of regional RM, for example, using detection and attribution methods. Incentives and implications of regional RM need to be examined, and new governance options have to be conceived.
Earth's Future, 2016
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development includes a set of 17 sustainable development goals (S... more The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development includes a set of 17 sustainable development goals (SDG) with 169 specific targets. As such, it could be a step forward in achieving efficient governance and policies for global sustainable development. However, the current indicator framework with its broad set of individual indicators prevents straightforward assessment of synergies and trade-offs between the various indicators, targets, and goals, thus, heightening the significance of policy guidance in achieving sustainable development. With our detailed analysis of SDG 14 (Ocean) for European Union (EU) coastal states, we demonstrate how the (complementary) inclusion of composite indicators that aggregate the individual indicators by applying a generalized mean can provide important additional information and facilitate the assessment of sustainable development in general and in the SDG context in particular. Embedded in the context of social choice theory, the generalized mean varies the specification of substitution elasticity and thus allows: (a) for a straightforward distinction between a concept of weak and strong sustainability and (b) for straightforward sensitivity analysis. We show that while in general the EU coastal states have a fairly balanced record at the SDG 14 level, certain countries like Slovenia and Portugal with a fairly balanced and a fairly unbalanced showing, respectively, rank very differently in terms of the two concepts of strong sustainability.
Weltweit werden etwa 3 Billionen US-Dollar staatlicher Hilfen ausgegeben, um den Absturz der Welt... more Weltweit werden etwa 3 Billionen US-Dollar staatlicher Hilfen ausgegeben, um den Absturz der Weltwirtschaft abzubremsen. Dieser Nachfrageschub von 4,7 Prozent des Welteinkommens hat zuallererst die Aufgabe, die Spirale gestrichener Investitionspläne, reduzierter Produktion, gesunkener Beschäftigung, gepaart mit schrumpfenden Einkommen und damit weiter sinkender Nachfrage, zu stoppen. Gleichzeitig sollten die Programme aber die Weltwirtschaft nach der Krise wieder auf einen nachhaltigen Wachstumspfad
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Papers by Wilfried Rickels