Papers by Miguel Angel Santos
Social Science Research Network, 2020
Social Science Research Network, 2016
Social Science Research Network, 2022
Social Science Research Network, 2023
Social Science Research Network, 2020
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2021
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Oct 1, 2020
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Mar 1, 2020
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Apr 1, 2019
In the decade 1999-2009, Jordan experienced an impressive growth acceleration, tripling its expor... more In the decade 1999-2009, Jordan experienced an impressive growth acceleration, tripling its exports and increasing income per capita by 38%. Since then, a number of external shocks that include the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009), the Arab Spring (2011), the Syrian Civil War (2011), and the emergence of the Islamic State (2014) have affected Jordan in significant ways and thrown its economy out of balance. Jordan's debt-to-GDP ratio has ballooned from 55% (2009) to 94% (2018). The economy has continued to grow amidst massive fiscal adjustment and balance of payments constraints, but the large increase in populationby 50% between 2008 and 2017driven by massive waves of refugees has resulted in a 12% cumulative loss in income per capita (2010-2017). Moving forward, debt sustainability will require not only continued fiscal consolidation but also faster growth and international support to keep interest payments on the debt contained. We have developed an innovative framework to align Jordan's growth strategy with its changing factor endowments. The framework incorporates service industries into an Economic Complexity analysis, utilizing the Dun and Bradstreet database, together with an evaluation of the evolution of Jordan's comparative advantages over time. Combining several tools to identify critical constraints faced by sectors with the greatest potential, we have produced a roadmap with key elements of a strategy for Jordan to return to faster, more sustainable and more inclusive growth that is consistent with its emerging comparative advantages.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 4, 2021
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018
SSRN Electronic Journal
Venezuela is at a breaking point. The political, economic, financial, social and humanitarian cri... more Venezuela is at a breaking point. The political, economic, financial, social and humanitarian crisis that has gripped the country is intensifying. This unsustainable situation raises several urgent questions: Which path will the embattled OPEC country take out of the current turmoil? What type of political transition lies ahead? What short-term and long-term impact will the crisis have on its ailing oil industry, economy and bond debt? What would be the best and most effective prescription for oil and economic recovery under a new governance regime? To discuss these matters, the Center on Global Energy Policy brought together on June 19, 2017 a group of about 45 experts, including oil industry executives, investment bankers, economists and political scientists from leading think tanks and universities, consultants, and multilateral organization representatives. This note provides some of the highlights from that roundtable discussion, which was held under the Chatham House rule.
The empirical literature on the contributions of human capital investments to economic growth sho... more The empirical literature on the contributions of human capital investments to economic growth shows mixed results. While evidence from OECD countries demonstrates that human capital accumulation is associated with growth accelerations, the substantial efforts of developing countries to improve access to and quality of education, as a means for skill accumulation, did not translate into higher income per capita. In this Element, we propose a framework, building on the principles of 'growth diagnostics', to enable practitioners to determine whether human capital investments are a priority for a country's growth strategy. We then discuss and exemplify different tests to diagnose human capital in a place, drawing on the Harvard Growth Lab's experience in different development context, and discuss various policy options to address skill shortages.
ERN: Economic Growth & Aggregate Productivity in Developing Economies (Topic), 2016
Venezuela has an oil-dependent economy subject to large exogenous shocks and a rigid labor market... more Venezuela has an oil-dependent economy subject to large exogenous shocks and a rigid labor market. These features go straight to the heart of two weaknesses of real business cycle (RBC) theory widely reported in the literature: neither shocks are volatile enough nor real salaries sufficiently flexible as required by the RBC framework to replicate the behavior of the economy. We calibrate a basic RBC model and compare a set of relevant statistics from RBC-simulated time series with actual data for Venezuela and the benchmark case of the United States (1950-2008). Despite Venezuela being a heavily regulated economy, RBC-simulated series provide a good t, in particular with regard to labor markets.
Academia Revista Latinoamericana De Administracion, 2010
How to cite Complete issue More information about this article Journal's homepage in redalyc.org ... more How to cite Complete issue More information about this article Journal's homepage in redalyc.org Scientific Information System Network of Scientific Journals from Latin America, the Caribbean, Spain and Portugal Non-profit academic project, developed under the open access initiative Consejo latinoamericano de escuelas de administración, cladea
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Papers by Miguel Angel Santos
A medida que se deterioran las condiciones del país, también cambian las estrategias y los apoyos requeridos para lograr su recuperación. Veinte años de chavismo han dejado a Venezuela en una condición de invalidez tal que rescatarla va a requerir ayuda internacional en la acepción más clásica del término. América Latina y la comunidad internacional deben entenderlo así y asumir el rescate de la nación latinoamericana como una urgencia.