Papers by Mathew Hauer
Many sea-level rise (SLR) assessments focus on populations presently inhabiting vulnerable coasta... more Many sea-level rise (SLR) assessments focus on populations presently inhabiting vulnerable coastal communities, but to date no studies have attempted to model the destinations of these potentially displaced persons. With millions of potential future migrants in heavily populated coastal communities, SLR scholarship focusing solely on coastal communities characterizes SLR as primarily a coastal issue, obscuring the potential impacts in landlocked communities created by SLR-induced displacement. Here I address this issue by merging projected populations at risk of SLR 1 with migration systems simulations to project future destinations of SLR migrants in the United States. I find that unmitigated SLR is expected to reshape the US population distribution, potentially stressing landlocked areas unprepared to accommodate this wave of coastal migrants—even after accounting for potential adaptation. These results provide the first glimpse of how climate change will reshape future population distributions and establish a new foundation for modelling potential migration destinations from climate stressors in an era of global environmental change.
Although general patterns of food insecurity in the United States are known, few studies have att... more Although general patterns of food insecurity in the United States are known, few studies have attempted to estimate small area food security or account for ongoing socioeconomic changes. Here we address these issues by producing small area estimates of food insecurity in the Atlanta metropolitan area using two methodologies: fixed effects modeling and demographic metabolism. In both cases, we use county-level data from the Current Population Survey to determine the association between food insecurity and demographic predictors. These associations are then applied to tract-level data from the 2009 to 2013 American Community Survey and projected data for 2020 to create small area estimates of food insecurity. We find broad consensus between our two methods. For both time periods, food insecurity is highest in southern sections of the city of Atlanta and its neighboring suburbs. Projections to 2020, however, show that food insecurity rates are projected to increase in outer-ring suburbs east and west of the city while decreasing in the urban core. These results highlight the need to further adapt antihunger efforts for often sprawling suburban communities, where poverty rates are increasing but spatial mismatch combined with poor transit access might hinder access to food assistance.
Disproportionate minority contact (DMC) in the U.S. juvenile justice system persists despite subs... more Disproportionate minority contact (DMC) in the U.S. juvenile justice system persists despite substantial efforts to reduce it. The juvenile justice system is comprised of a series of interconnected stages, yet few studies to-date use methods to measure DMC that take the cascading nature of the decision-making process into account. Our study addresses this gap by applying life table analysis to identify the cumulative nature of DMC across multiple stages of the juvenile justice system using data from 2008 to 2010 in Georgia that include white, black, and Hispanic/Latino youth. We then compare these state-level results to life tables from a national sample of black youth and a subnational sample of Hispanic/Latino youth. Our findings show that arrest/referral accounts for the greatest proportion of total system-wide DMC for black youth, but most of the total DMC for Hispanic/Latino youth results from later stages.
Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most apparent climate change stressors facing human society. A... more Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most apparent climate change stressors facing human society. Although it is known that many people currently inhabit areas vulnerable to SLR, few studies have accounted for ongoing population growth when assessing the potential magnitude of future impacts. Here we address this issue by coupling a small area population projection with a SLR vulnerability assessment across all United States (US) coastal counties. We find that a 2100 SLR of 0.9m places a land area projected to house 4.2 million people at risk of inundation, while 1.8m affects 13.1 million people -- approximately three times larger than indicated by current populations. These results suggest that the absence of protective measures could lead to US population movements of a magnitude similar to the 20th century Great Migration of southern African-Americans. Furthermore, our population projection approach can be readily adapted to assess other hazards or to model future per capita economic impacts.
Population and Environment, 2015
It is increasingly apparent that stressors associated with anthropocentric climate change are lik... more It is increasingly apparent that stressors associated with anthropocentric climate change are likely to have dramatic effects on future human settlement patterns. Although sea-level rise is one of the best understood implications of climate change, geographically precise estimation of potential population displacement due to tidewater inundation has proven remarkably problematic. At least within the USA, these problems partially stem from methodological limitations of population projection methodology at sub-county scales. Using a case study of coastal Georgia, USA, this paper develops and demonstrates a new housing unitbased population projection method that is applied at the sub-county scale of Census Block Groups. These projections are then overlaid with spatiotemporally explicit assessments of future sea-level rise inundation provided through the Sea Level Affecting Marsh Model (SLAMM). We find that between 62,000 and 159,000 people are at risk of between 1 and 2 m of sea-level rise by 2100 in coastal Georgia.
Indirect estimation methodologies of the total fertility rate (TFR) have a long history within de... more Indirect estimation methodologies of the total fertility rate (TFR) have a long history within demography and have provided important techniques applied demographers can use when data is sparse or lacking. However new methodologies for approximating the total fertility rate have not been proposed in nearly 30 years. This study presents a novel method for indirectly approximating the total fertility rate using an algebraic rearrangement of the general fertility rate (GFR) through the known relationship between GFR and TFR. It then compares the proposed method to the well-known Bogue-Palmore method. These methods are compared in 196 countries and include overall errors as well as characteristics of the countries that contribute to fertility behavior. Additionally, these methods were compared geographically to find any geographical patterns. We find this novel method is not only simpler than the Bogue-Palmore method, requiring fewer data inputs, but also has reduced algebraic and absolute errors when compared with the Bogue-Palmore method and specifically outperforms the Bogue-Palmore method in developing countries. We find that our novel method may be useful estimation procedure for demographers. Citation: Hauer M, Baker J, Brown W (2013) Indirect Estimates of Total Fertility Rate Using Child Woman/Ratio: A Comparison with the Bogue-Palmore Method. PLoS ONE 8(6): e67226.
This paper is a 3D Geovisualization of subcounty estimates of historic housing density in the
20-... more This paper is a 3D Geovisualization of subcounty estimates of historic housing density in the
20-county metro Atlanta Region for 1940-2009 using the Hammer Method. Representing
information spatially and temporally, by themselves, are well developed techniques for
demographers to use. Representing information spatio-temporally, together, however, is
underdeveloped in the demographic literature. This paper includes a number of contemporary
geovisualization techniques that can be employed to better visually represent demographic data in
a more intuitive manner. Policymakers and other consumers of demographic data could greatly
benefit from improved representations of the spatio-temporal data that demographers produce.
Reports by Mathew Hauer
Working Papers by Mathew Hauer
Effects on the migration systems of evacuees and migrants affected by the Great East Japan Earthq... more Effects on the migration systems of evacuees and migrants affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami provide an example of how climate change may affect population mobility. Most migration models, based on other natural disasters, suggest that environmentally induced migration is short-distance. Data limitations, however, have prevented a more nuanced examination of the migration systems of evacuees and permanent migrants. Using a unique dataset, we compare and contrast the pre-(2010), peri-(2011), and post-(2012-2013) migration systems of permanent migrants and temporary evacuees of the earthquake and tsunami for the three most adversely affected prefectures – Fukushima, Iwate, and Miyagi. We find that peri-and post-disaster migration – expressed as both proportions of total flows and destinations – is largely identical to pre-disaster migration suggesting that migrants leveraged pre-existing ties, ties present in the pre-disaster period, in the peri-and post-disaster periods. While the magnitude of flows increased in the wake of the disaster, the proportions and destinations of migrants remain largely intact. We also find evidence of a different migration system for temporary evacuees—one emphasizing short rather than long distance moves. This suggests the presence of two separate migration systems for evacuees and migrants where evacuees seem to emphasize short distance migration while migrants emphasize pre-existing ties. Our results demonstrate that past migration systems can potentially be used to predict future emigrations from environmental stressors, an increasingly important finding given the anticipated population displacements due to climate change.
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Papers by Mathew Hauer
20-county metro Atlanta Region for 1940-2009 using the Hammer Method. Representing
information spatially and temporally, by themselves, are well developed techniques for
demographers to use. Representing information spatio-temporally, together, however, is
underdeveloped in the demographic literature. This paper includes a number of contemporary
geovisualization techniques that can be employed to better visually represent demographic data in
a more intuitive manner. Policymakers and other consumers of demographic data could greatly
benefit from improved representations of the spatio-temporal data that demographers produce.
Reports by Mathew Hauer
Working Papers by Mathew Hauer
20-county metro Atlanta Region for 1940-2009 using the Hammer Method. Representing
information spatially and temporally, by themselves, are well developed techniques for
demographers to use. Representing information spatio-temporally, together, however, is
underdeveloped in the demographic literature. This paper includes a number of contemporary
geovisualization techniques that can be employed to better visually represent demographic data in
a more intuitive manner. Policymakers and other consumers of demographic data could greatly
benefit from improved representations of the spatio-temporal data that demographers produce.