Abstract The emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus
planipennis) is decimating native ashes (Fraxinus
sp... more Abstract The emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis) is decimating native ashes (Fraxinus sp.) throughout midwestern North America, killing millions of trees over the years. With plenty of ash available throughout the continent, the spread of this destructive insect is likely to continue. We estimate that the insect has been moving along a ‘‘front’’ at about 20 km/year since about 1998, but more alarming is its long-range dispersal into new locations facilitated by human activities. We describe a spatially explicit cell-based model used to calculate risk of spread in Ohio, by combining the insect’s flight and short-range dispersal (‘‘insect flight’’) with human-facilitated, long-range dispersal (‘‘insect ride’’). This hybrid model requires estimates of EAB abundance, ash abundance, major roads and traffic density, campground size and usage, distance from the core infested zone, wood products industry size and type of wood usage, and human population density. With the ‘‘insect flight’’ model, probability of movement is dependent on EAB abundance in the source cells, the quantity of ash in the target cells, and the distances between them. With the ‘‘insect-ride’’ model, we modify the value related to ash abundance based on factors related to potential human-assisted movements of EAB-infested ash wood or just hitchhiking insects. We attempt to show the advantage of our model compared to statistical approaches and to justify its practical value to field managers working with imperfect knowledge. We stress the importance of the road network in distributing insects to new geographically dispersed sites in Ohio, where 84% were within 1 km of a major highway.
Abstract The emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus
planipennis) is decimating native ashes (Fraxinus
sp... more Abstract The emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis) is decimating native ashes (Fraxinus sp.) throughout midwestern North America, killing millions of trees over the years. With plenty of ash available throughout the continent, the spread of this destructive insect is likely to continue. We estimate that the insect has been moving along a ‘‘front’’ at about 20 km/year since about 1998, but more alarming is its long-range dispersal into new locations facilitated by human activities. We describe a spatially explicit cell-based model used to calculate risk of spread in Ohio, by combining the insect’s flight and short-range dispersal (‘‘insect flight’’) with human-facilitated, long-range dispersal (‘‘insect ride’’). This hybrid model requires estimates of EAB abundance, ash abundance, major roads and traffic density, campground size and usage, distance from the core infested zone, wood products industry size and type of wood usage, and human population density. With the ‘‘insect flight’’ model, probability of movement is dependent on EAB abundance in the source cells, the quantity of ash in the target cells, and the distances between them. With the ‘‘insect-ride’’ model, we modify the value related to ash abundance based on factors related to potential human-assisted movements of EAB-infested ash wood or just hitchhiking insects. We attempt to show the advantage of our model compared to statistical approaches and to justify its practical value to field managers working with imperfect knowledge. We stress the importance of the road network in distributing insects to new geographically dispersed sites in Ohio, where 84% were within 1 km of a major highway.
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Papers by Anantha Prasad
planipennis) is decimating native ashes (Fraxinus
sp.) throughout midwestern North America, killing
millions of trees over the years. With plenty of ash
available throughout the continent, the spread of this
destructive insect is likely to continue. We estimate
that the insect has been moving along a ‘‘front’’ at
about 20 km/year since about 1998, but more alarming
is its long-range dispersal into new locations
facilitated by human activities. We describe a
spatially explicit cell-based model used to calculate
risk of spread in Ohio, by combining the insect’s
flight and short-range dispersal (‘‘insect flight’’) with
human-facilitated, long-range dispersal (‘‘insect
ride’’). This hybrid model requires estimates of
EAB abundance, ash abundance, major roads and
traffic density, campground size and usage, distance
from the core infested zone, wood products industry
size and type of wood usage, and human population
density. With the ‘‘insect flight’’ model, probability of
movement is dependent on EAB abundance in the
source cells, the quantity of ash in the target cells, and
the distances between them. With the ‘‘insect-ride’’
model, we modify the value related to ash abundance
based on factors related to potential human-assisted
movements of EAB-infested ash wood or just
hitchhiking insects. We attempt to show the advantage
of our model compared to statistical approaches
and to justify its practical value to field managers
working with imperfect knowledge. We stress the
importance of the road network in distributing insects
to new geographically dispersed sites in Ohio, where
84% were within 1 km of a major highway.
planipennis) is decimating native ashes (Fraxinus
sp.) throughout midwestern North America, killing
millions of trees over the years. With plenty of ash
available throughout the continent, the spread of this
destructive insect is likely to continue. We estimate
that the insect has been moving along a ‘‘front’’ at
about 20 km/year since about 1998, but more alarming
is its long-range dispersal into new locations
facilitated by human activities. We describe a
spatially explicit cell-based model used to calculate
risk of spread in Ohio, by combining the insect’s
flight and short-range dispersal (‘‘insect flight’’) with
human-facilitated, long-range dispersal (‘‘insect
ride’’). This hybrid model requires estimates of
EAB abundance, ash abundance, major roads and
traffic density, campground size and usage, distance
from the core infested zone, wood products industry
size and type of wood usage, and human population
density. With the ‘‘insect flight’’ model, probability of
movement is dependent on EAB abundance in the
source cells, the quantity of ash in the target cells, and
the distances between them. With the ‘‘insect-ride’’
model, we modify the value related to ash abundance
based on factors related to potential human-assisted
movements of EAB-infested ash wood or just
hitchhiking insects. We attempt to show the advantage
of our model compared to statistical approaches
and to justify its practical value to field managers
working with imperfect knowledge. We stress the
importance of the road network in distributing insects
to new geographically dispersed sites in Ohio, where
84% were within 1 km of a major highway.