SAPAG

X Y
Año Dda XY X^2
2002 10 20,020 4,008,004
2003 20 40,060 4,012,009
2004 30 60,120 4,016,016
2005 45 90,225 4,020,025 n 11
2006 70 140,420 4,024,036
2007 90 180,630 4,028,049 b 25.59
2008 125 251,000 4,032,064 a - 51,250.95
2009 150 301,350 4,036,081
2010 180 361,800 4,040,100
2011 220 442,420 4,044,121
2012 270 543,240 4,048,144
SUM 22,077 1,210 2,431,285 44,308,649 -
PROM 2007 110
2013 263.55
2014 289.14
2015 314.73
2016 340.32
2017 365.91 450
2018 391.50
400

EXCEL 350
X Y Y=AX+B
300
Año Dda Ft1 Ft2 A 25.591
1 10 -18.0 B -43.545 250 f(x) = 1.87062937062
R²
f(x)==0.998546496750
2 20 7.6 25.5909090909
200 R² = 0.958594931349
3 30 33.2
4 45 58.8 Y=aX^2+bX+c 150
5 70 84.4 a 1.8706
100
6 90 110.0 b 3.1434
7 125 135.6 c 5.0909 50
8 150 161.2
0
9 180 186.8 1 2 3 4
10 220 212.4 -50
11 270 238.0 proyección demanda Proyecto
12 263.55 263.5 312.18 5.27 dado el ciclo de vida del pr
13 289.14 289.1 362.09 5.78 nuestro proyecto pretende
14 314.73 314.7 415.74 6.29
15 340.32 340.3 473.13 6.81
16 365.91 365.9 534.26 7.32
17 391.50 391.5 599.13 7.83
 450

400

350

300

250 f(x) = 1.87062937062937 x² + 3.14335664335664 x + 5.09090909090913

R²
f(x)==0.998546496750089
25.5909090909091 x − 43.5454545454545
200 R² = 0.958594931349422

150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-50
manda Proyecto
do el ciclo de vida del producto, y la competencia, y los datos de demanda
estro proyecto pretende abarcar el 2% de la demanda potencial
 SAPAG: PROMEDIOS MÓVILES CENTRADOS
Año Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño Total
2002 2 3 4 1 10
2003 5 6 7 2 20
2004 7 10 10 3 30
2005 10 17 16 2 45
2006 13 20 28 9 70
2007 19 34 34 3 90
2008 27 39 48 11 125
2009 26 44 58 22 150
2010 38 51 70 21 180
2011 44 67 81 28 220
2012 51 79 107 33 270
2013 60.42 84.96 95.30 22.87 263.55
Periodos Dda PM4 PMC IE Ft
2002 1 2
2 3
3 4 2.50 2.88 1.39
4 1 3.25 3.63 0.28
2003 5 5 4.00 4.38 1.14
6 6 4.75 4.88 1.23
7 7 5.00 5.25 1.33
8 2 5.50 6.00 0.33
2004 9 7 6.50 6.88 1.02
10 10 7.25 7.38 1.36
11 10 7.50 7.88 1.27
12 3 8.25 9.13 0.33
13 10 10.00 10.75 0.93
14 17 11.50 11.38 1.49
15 16 11.25 11.63 1.38
16 2 12.00 12.38 0.16
17 13 12.75 14.25 0.91
18 20 15.75 16.63 1.20
19 28 17.50 18.25 1.53
20 9 19.00 20.75 0.43
21 19 22.50 23.25 0.82
22 34 24.00 23.25 1.46
23 34 22.50 23.50 1.45
24 3 24.50 25.13 0.12
25 27 25.75 27.50 0.98
26 39 29.25 30.25 1.29
27 48 31.25 31.13 1.54
28 11 31.00 31.63 0.35
29 26 32.25 33.50 0.78
30 44 34.75 36.13 1.22
31 58 37.50 39.00 1.49
32 22 40.50 41.38 0.53
33 38 42.25 43.75 0.87
34 51 45.25 45.13 1.13
35 70 45.00 45.75 1.53
36 21 46.50 48.50 0.43
37 44 50.50 51.88 0.85
38 67 53.25 54.13 1.24
39 81 55.00 55.88 1.45
40 28 56.75 58.25 0.48
41 51 59.75 63.00 0.81
42 79 66.25 66.88 1.18
43 107 67.50
44 33
45 60.42 60.42
46 84.96 84.96
47 95.30 95.30
48 22.87 22.87
Año Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño
2002 1.39 0.28
2003 1.14 1.23 1.33 0.33
2004 1.02 1.36 1.27 0.33
2005 0.93 1.49 1.38 0.16
2006 0.91 1.20 1.53 0.43
2007 0.82 1.46 1.45 0.12
2008 0.98 1.29 1.54 0.35
2009 0.78 1.22 1.49 0.53
2010 0.87 1.13 1.53 0.43
2011 0.85 1.24 1.45 0.48
2012 0.81 1.18
IE Promedio 0.91 1.28 1.44 0.34 3.97
Ajuste 0.92 1.29 1.45 0.35 4.00
dda S/ Estac 65.89 65.89 65.89 65.89
dda C / estac 60.42 84.96 95.30 22.87 263.55

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
0 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
DESCOMPOSICIÓN
Año Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño Total
2002 2 3 4 1 10
2003 5 6 7 2 20
2004 7 10 10 3 30
2005 10 17 16 2 45
2006 13 20 28 9 70
2007 19 34 34 3 90
2008 27 39 48 11 125
2009 26 44 58 22 150
2010 38 51 70 21 180
2011 44 67 81 28 220
2012 51 79 107 33 270
Promedio 22.0 33.6 42.1 12.3
IE 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.4 4.0

Per Dda IE Desestacion Ft desestac ft Estacional

1 2 0.80 2.50
2 3 1.22 2.45
3 4 1.53 2.61
4 1 0.45 2.24
5 5 0.80 6.25
6 6 1.22 4.91
7 7 1.53 4.57
8 2 0.45 4.48
9 7 0.80 8.75
10 10 1.22 8.18
11 10 1.53 6.53
12 3 0.45 6.72
13 10 0.80 12.50
14 17 1.22 13.90
15 16 1.53 10.45
16 2 0.45 4.48
17 13 0.80 16.25
18 20 1.22 16.35
19 28 1.53 18.29
20 9 0.45 20.17
21 19 0.80 23.75
22 34 1.22 27.80
23 34 1.53 22.21
24 3 0.45 6.72
25 27 0.80 33.75
26 39 1.22 31.89
27 48 1.53 31.36
28 11 0.45 24.65
29 26 0.80 32.50
30 44 1.22 35.97
31 58 1.53 37.89
32 22 0.45 49.30
33 38 0.80 47.50
34 51 1.22 41.70
35 70 1.53 45.73
36 21 0.45 47.06
37 44 0.80 55.00
38 67 1.22 54.78
39 81 1.53 52.92
40 28 0.45 62.74
41 51 0.80 63.75
42 79 1.22 64.59
43 107 1.53 69.91
44 33 0.45 73.94
45 51.10 0.80 63.8729 51.10
46 80.10 1.22 65.4895 80.10
47 102.71 1.53 67.1061 102.71
48 30.67 0.45 68.7227 30.67
 Gran Pro 27.5

120

100

y=ax+b 80
a 1.6166
b -8.8741 60 f(x) = 1.61662457438237 x − 8.87405292360338
R² = 0.912150528585257
40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
Sapag Descomposición
2 2
120
3 3
4 4
100
1 1
5 5
80
6 6
7 7
60
2 2
7 7
40
10 10
10 10
20
3 3
10 10
0
17 17 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
16 16
2 2
13 13
20 20
28 28
9 9
19 19
34 34
34 34
3 3
27 27
39 39
 48 48
11 11
26 26
44 44
58 58
22 22
38 38
51 51
70 70
21 21
44 44
67 67
81 81
28 28
51 51
79 79
107 107
33 33
60.42 51.10
84.96 80.10
95.30 102.71
22.87 30.67
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

8 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Año Dda PM3 Error EABS Error% Error^2 PM5
2004 38
2005 42
2006 45
2007 48 41.67 6.33 6.33333333 13% 40.11
2008 38 45.00 -7.00 7 18% 49.00
2009 45 43.67 1.33 1.33333333 3% 1.78 42.2
2010 35 43.67 -8.67 8.66666667 25% 75.11 43.6
2011 29 39.33 -10.33 10.3333333 36% 106.78 42.2
2012 36.33 39
SUM -18.33 33.67 272.78
Prom - 4 7 19.0% 54.56
 Alfa 0.3
Error EABS Error% Error^2 Alis Exponen Error EABS
#N/A
38 4 4
39.2 5.8 5.8
40.94 7.06 7.06
43.058 -5.058 5.058
2.80 2.8 7% 7.84 41.5406 3.4594 3.4594
-8.60 8.6 20% 73.96 42.57842 -7.57842 7.57842
-13.20 13.2 31% 174.24 40.304894 -11.304894 11.304894
36.9134258
-19.00 24.60 256.04 -3.62 34.46
- 6 8 19.2% 85.35 - 1 7
 Alfa 0.4
Error% Error^2 Alis Exponen Error EABS Error% Error^2
#N/A
0.10526316 16 38 4 4 0.10526316 16
0.14795918 33.64 39.6 5.4 5.4 0.13636364 29.16
0.17244748 49.8436 41.76 6.24 6.24 0.14942529 38.9376
0.11746946 25.583364 44.256 -6.256 6.256 0.14135936 39.137536
0.08327756 11.9674484 41.7536 3.2464 3.2464 0.07775138 10.539113
0.17798735 57.4324497 43.05216 -8.05216 8.05216 0.18703266 64.8372807
0.2804844 127.800628 39.831296 -10.831296 10.831296 0.27192929 117.316973

272.63 -6.25 34.63 270.77

16.6% 54.53 - 1 7 16.5% 54.15
FO COSTO ANUALES MILLONES $
Zonas MO MAT PRIM TRANSP OTROS Total Recíproco
A 9.1 10.7 3.2 7.5 30.5 0.03278689
B 9.7 10.3 3.8 7.5 31.3 0.03194888
C 8.9 11.8 3.9 7.5 32.1 0.03115265
0.09588842

FS Clima Vivienda Educación Sum Pref Wj

Clima 1 1 2 0.5
Vivienda 0 1 1 0.25
Eduación 0 1 1 0.25
4
Clima
Factor A B C SUM Rj
A 1 1 2 0.5
B 1 1 2 0.5
C 0 0 0 0
4
FO FO 75%
0.34192749 FS 25%
0.33318813
0.32488438
1.00

MPL A 0.31894562