Análisis de Una Serie Histórica de Tránsito Mopt - Invias Y Proyección Del Número de Ejes Sencillos Equivalentes de 80 KN

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ANÁLISIS DE UNA SERIE HISTÓRICA DE TRÁNSITO MOPT - INVIAS Y PROYECC

Estación 204
Sector Ocaña - Chapinero

Aforo de camiones. Aforo de camiones.


Composición
Total para siete (7) días. % del TPDS.
Año TPDS
%
% Autos % Buses C2P C2G C3C4 C5 >C5 %C2P %C2G
Camiones
1989 784 62% 6% 32% 952 772 25 2 0 17.3% 14.1%
1990 929 64% 6% 30% 548 1,408 9 0 0 8.4% 21.7%
1991 957 64% 5% 31% 1,265 781 11 4 0 18.9% 11.7%
1992 1,035 69% 4% 27% 854 1,103 11 1 0 11.8% 15.2%
1993 1,053 67% 4% 29% 882 1,135 59 9 8 12.0% 15.4%
1994 1,148 61% 6% 33% 975 1,619 28 3 7 12.1% 20.1%
1995 1,157 74% 4% 22% 473 1,356 2 1 1 5.8% 16.7%
1996 1,223 57% 5% 38% 1,146 2,062 13 2 0 13.4% 24.1%
1997 1,248 65% 5% 30% 771 1,849 21 3 1 8.8% 21.2%
1998 1,452 67% 4% 29% 758 2,115 20 4 16 7.5% 20.8%
1999 1,214 76% 5% 19% 805 754 30 0 0 9.5% 8.9%
2000 1,360 72% 5% 23% 756 1,377 19 5 7 7.9% 14.5%
2001 1,301 78% 5% 17% 573 997 8 0 4 6.3% 10.9%
2002 1,556 77% 3% 20% 696 1,451 14 12 3 6.4% 13.3%
2003 1,795 81% 6% 13% 797 1,331 13 1 24 6.3% 10.6%
2004 1,958 79% 3% 18% 807 1,491 36 15 149 5.9% 10.9%
2005 1,863 80% 3% 17% 852 1,265 10 0 69 6.5% 9.7%
2006 2,094 81% 3% 16% 463 1,914 7 0 3 3.2% 13.1%
2007 2,331 79% 3% 18% 574 1,560 72 180 619 3.5% 9.6%
2008 2,440 80% 2% 18% 941 1,102 147 102 710 5.5% 6.5%
2009 2,330 76% 4% 21% 703 1,980 105 61 508 4.3% 12.1%
2010 2,294 76% 3% 20% 630 1,452 211 320 659 3.9% 9.0%
(1) En ausencia de un FDV para los buses, tome 1.00.
(2) Si se dispone de varios FDV para la clase C3C4, emplee el mayor de todos.

6.00

5.75

5.50

f(x) = 0.0178622384572822 x + 4.97947667180336


(W18)

5.25 R² = 0.473570426029028
5.75

5.50

log(W18) f(x) = 0.0178622384572822 x + 4.97947667180336


5.25 R² = 0.473570426029028

5.00

4.75

4.50
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Año - 1988

log(W18) Linear (log(W18)) log(W18 futuro). log(W18 futuro) Conf.=90%


Conf. = 50%
INVIAS Y PROYECCIÓN DEL NÚMERO DE EJES SENCILLOS EQUIVALENTES DE 80 kN.

Aforo de camiones.
Factor de deterioro vehicular (FDV) Factor Factor de NESE
% del TPDS.
direccional carril histórico
%C3C4 %C5 %>C5 B(1) C2P C2G C3C4(2) C5 >C5 (FD) (FCa) real (W18)

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 0.10 2.80 6.70 5.30 5.90 0.50 1.00 72,066
0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 0.10 2.80 6.70 5.30 5.90 0.50 1.00 115,957
0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.00 0.10 2.80 6.70 5.30 5.90 0.50 1.00 71,518
0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.50 1.00 119,131
0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.50 1.00 129,935
0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.50 1.00 162,990
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.50 1.00 111,899
0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 230,540
0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 201,519
0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 226,142
0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 104,460
0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 160,433
0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 118,408
0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 161,605
0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.90 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.50 1.00 141,472
0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.90 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.50 1.00 163,690
0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.90 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.50 1.00 138,219
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.50 1.00 144,548
0.4% 1.1% 3.8% 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.50 1.00 252,790
0.9% 0.6% 4.2% 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.50 1.00 235,877
0.6% 0.4% 3.1% 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.50 1.00 263,143
1.3% 2.0% 4.1% 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.50 1.00 283,151

Promedio de X
No. De datos
∑▒(𝒙−𝑿 ̅ )^
𝟐

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000
18
600,000

500,000

400,000

W18
300,000

200,000

100,000

29 31 33 35 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Año - 1988
turo) Conf.=90% NESE histórico real (W18) Linear (NESE histórico real (W18) )
W18 futuro. Conf. = 50% W18 futuro Conf.=90%
NTES DE 80 kN.

[log(W18) -
Año (variable (𝒙−𝑿 ̅ )^
log(W18) log(W18 modelo) log(W18
X) 𝟐 modelo)]²

4.86 1 110.25 5.00 0.0195


5.06 2 90.25 5.02 0.0024
4.85 3 72.25 5.03 0.0320
5.08 4 56.25 5.05 0.0006
5.11 5 42.25 5.07 0.0020
5.21 6 30.25 5.09 0.0157
5.05 7 20.25 5.10 0.0031
5.36 8 12.25 5.12 0.0576
5.30 9 6.25 5.14 0.0268
5.35 10 2.25 5.16 0.0384
5.02 11 0.25 5.18 0.0248
5.21 12 0.25 5.19 0.0001
5.07 13 2.25 5.21 0.0193
5.21 14 6.25 5.23 0.0005
5.15 15 12.25 5.25 0.0095
5.21 16 20.25 5.27 0.0027
5.14 17 30.25 5.28 0.0205
5.16 18 42.25 5.30 0.0201
5.40 19 56.25 5.32 0.0069
5.37 20 72.25 5.34 0.0012
5.42 21 90.25 5.36 0.0042
5.45 22 110.25 5.37 0.0062

Promedio de X 11.50 ∑▒[log⁡(𝑊18)−log⁡(𝑊18 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑜) ]^𝟐


No. De datos 22 0.3141
∑▒(𝒙−𝑿 ̅ )^
𝟐 885.50 Error de estimación, Sw 0.13
27 29 31 33 35

o real (W18) )
%
Proyección del tránsito para el diseño estructural de pavimentos
Periodo de diseño estructural 15 años 2014 - 2028

log(W18 Confiabilidad
Año (variable W18 futuro. σ de
Año futuro). Corrección
X) Conf. = 50% pronóstico
Conf. = 50% 90%

2014 26 5.4449 278,548 0.1419 1.282 0.1819


2015 27 5.4628 290,269 0.1438 1.282 0.1843
2016 28 5.4807 302,482 0.1458 1.282 0.1868
2017 29 5.4986 315,210 0.1478 1.282 0.1894
2018 30 5.5165 328,473 0.1500 1.282 0.1922
2019 31 5.5344 342,295 0.1522 1.282 0.1950
2020 32 5.5523 356,697 0.1545 1.282 0.1980
2021 33 5.5702 371,706 0.1569 1.282 0.2011
2022 34 5.5881 387,347 0.1594 1.282 0.2042
2023 35 5.6060 403,645 0.1619 1.282 0.2075
2024 36 5.6239 420,630 0.1645 1.282 0.2108
2025 37 5.6418 438,329 0.1672 1.282 0.2142
2026 38 5.6597 456,773 0.1699 1.282 0.2178
2027 39 5.6776 475,992 0.1727 1.282 0.2213
2028 40 5.6955 496,021 0.1756 1.282 0.2250

∑▒ 〖𝑾𝟏𝟖〗 _𝒇𝒖𝒕𝒖
𝒓𝒐
de pavimentos
2014 - 2028

log(W18 futuro) W18 futuro

Conf.=90% Conf.=90%

5.6268 423,446
5.6471 443,695
5.6675 465,046
5.6880 487,560
5.7087 511,300
5.7294 536,332
5.7503 562,728
5.7713 590,560
5.7923 619,906
5.8135 650,849
5.8347 683,474
5.8560 717,874
5.8775 754,143
5.8989 792,384
5.9205 832,703

Conf. = 50% Conf.=90%

5,664,417 9,072,000
ANÁLISIS DE UNA SERIE HISTÓRICA DE TRÁNSITO MOPT - INVIAS Y PROYECC
Estación 224
Sector Chapinero - Alto del Pozo

Aforo de camiones. Aforo de camiones.


Composición
Total para siete (7) días. % del TPDS.
Año TPDS
%
% Autos % Buses C2P C2G C3C4 C5 >C5 %C2P %C2G
Camiones
1989 294 57% 6% 37% 322 389 46 0 0 15.6% 18.9%
1990 339 57% 5% 38% 498 286 126 0 0 21.0% 12.1%
1991 291 59% 6% 35% 340 375 1 0 0 16.7% 18.4%
1992 333 56% 4% 40% 291 527 112 3 1 12.5% 22.6%
1993 406 51% 4% 45% 441 766 50 9 3 15.5% 27.0%
1994 350 51% 7% 42% 425 570 29 3 3 17.3% 23.3%
1995 374 55% 7% 38% 476 505 14 0 0 18.2% 19.3%
1996 330 54% 8% 38% 382 464 35 0 0 16.5% 20.1%
1997 376 57% 5% 38% 361 628 13 4 0 13.7% 23.9%
1998 560 65% 5% 30% 470 683 26 4 7 12.0% 17.4%
1999 559 61% 4% 35% 749 580 42 0 0 19.1% 14.8%
2000 507 60% 5% 35% 583 575 43 6 6 16.4% 16.2%
2001 671 68% 4% 28% 872 432 6 0 2 18.6% 9.2%
2002 609 71% 4% 25% 704 351 11 1 2 16.5% 8.2%
2003 837 75% 12% 13% 717 474 9 4 19 12.2% 8.1%
2004 719 65% 3% 32% 565 825 37 17 164 11.2% 16.4%
2005 852 76% 4% 20% 462 665 5 1 63 7.7% 11.2%
2006 889 74% 4% 22% 452 924 4 0 0 7.3% 14.8%
2007 1,381 69% 6% 25% 489 460 387 179 933 5.1% 4.8%
2008 1,146 61% 5% 34% 901 849 110 88 771 11.2% 10.6%
2009 1,050 66% 8% 26% 670 674 62 42 488 9.1% 9.2%
2010 1,457 65% 6% 29% 624 614 517 447 822 6.1% 6.0%
(1) En ausencia de un FDV para los buses, tome 1.00.
(2) Si se dispone de varios FDV para la clase C3C4, emplee el mayor de todos.

6.00

5.75

5.50

5.25
f(x) = 0.0312890024240722 x + 4.56036809453905
R² = 0.700818606343661
(W18)

5.00
5.75

5.50

5.25
f(x) = 0.0312890024240722 x + 4.56036809453905
R² = 0.700818606343661
log(W18)
5.00

4.75

4.50

4.25

4.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Año - 1988

log(W18) Linear (log(W18)) log(W18 futuro). log(W18 futuro) Conf.=90%


Conf. = 50%
INVIAS Y PROYECCIÓN DEL NÚMERO DE EJES SENCILLOS EQUIVALENTES DE 80 kN.

Aforo de camiones.
Factor de deterioro vehicular (FDV) Factor Factor de NESE
% del TPDS.
direccional carril histórico
%C3C4 %C5 %>C5 B(1) C2P C2G C3C4(2) C5 >C5 (FD) (FCa) real (W18)

2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 0.10 2.80 6.70 5.30 5.90 0.50 1.00 40,491
5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 0.10 2.80 6.70 5.30 5.90 0.50 1.00 47,279
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 0.10 2.80 6.70 5.30 5.90 0.50 1.00 31,623
4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.50 1.00 61,759
1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.50 1.00 77,991
1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.50 1.00 64,498
0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.50 1.00 61,625
1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 60,735
0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 71,873
0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 83,692
1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 82,069
1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 78,702
0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 69,904
0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 57,844
0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.90 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.50 1.00 87,066
0.7% 0.3% 3.3% 0.90 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.50 1.00 109,066
0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.90 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.50 1.00 78,012
0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.50 1.00 83,299
4.0% 1.9% 9.7% 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.50 1.00 248,144
1.4% 1.1% 9.6% 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.50 1.00 221,382
0.8% 0.6% 6.6% 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.50 1.00 158,666
5.1% 4.4% 8.1% 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.50 1.00 295,022

Promedio de X
No. De datos
∑▒(𝒙−𝑿 ̅ )^
𝟐

800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000
18
700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

W18 300,000

200,000

100,000

29 31 33 35 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Año - 1988
turo) Conf.=90% NESE histórico real (W18) Linear (NESE histórico real (W18) )
W18 futuro. Conf. = 50% W18 futuro Conf.=90%
NTES DE 80 kN.

[log(W18) -
Año (variable (𝒙−𝑿 ̅ )^
log(W18) log(W18 modelo) log(W18
X) 𝟐 modelo)]²

4.61 1 110.25 4.59 0.0002


4.67 2 90.25 4.62 0.0027
4.50 3 72.25 4.65 0.0238
4.79 4 56.25 4.69 0.0110
4.89 5 42.25 4.72 0.0307
4.81 6 30.25 4.75 0.0038
4.79 7 20.25 4.78 0.0001
4.78 8 12.25 4.81 0.0007
4.86 9 6.25 4.84 0.0002
4.92 10 2.25 4.87 0.0024
4.91 11 0.25 4.90 0.0001
4.90 12 0.25 4.94 0.0016
4.84 13 2.25 4.97 0.0151
4.76 14 6.25 5.00 0.0559
4.94 15 12.25 5.03 0.0081
5.04 16 20.25 5.06 0.0006
4.89 17 30.25 5.09 0.0401
4.92 18 42.25 5.12 0.0413
5.39 19 56.25 5.16 0.0574
5.35 20 72.25 5.19 0.0252
5.20 21 90.25 5.22 0.0003
5.47 22 110.25 5.25 0.0488

Promedio de X 11.50 ∑▒[log⁡(𝑊18)−log⁡(𝑊18 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑜) ]^𝟐


No. De datos 22 0.3701
∑▒(𝒙−𝑿 ̅ )^
𝟐 885.50 Error de estimación, Sw 0.14
27 29 31 33 35

o real (W18) )
%
Proyección del tránsito para el diseño estructural de pavimentos
Periodo de diseño estructural 15 años 2014 - 2028

log(W18 Confiabilidad
Año (variable W18 futuro. σ de
Año futuro). Corrección
X) Conf. = 50% pronóstico
Conf. = 50% 90%

2014 26 5.3742 236,701 0.1541 1.282 0.1975


2015 27 5.4055 254,390 0.1561 1.282 0.2000
2016 28 5.4368 273,401 0.1582 1.282 0.2028
2017 29 5.4681 293,833 0.1605 1.282 0.2056
2018 30 5.4994 315,791 0.1628 1.282 0.2086
2019 31 5.5307 339,391 0.1652 1.282 0.2117
2020 32 5.5620 364,754 0.1677 1.282 0.2149
2021 33 5.5933 392,013 0.1703 1.282 0.2183
2022 34 5.6246 421,308 0.1730 1.282 0.2217
2023 35 5.6559 452,793 0.1757 1.282 0.2252
2024 36 5.6872 486,631 0.1786 1.282 0.2289
2025 37 5.7185 522,998 0.1815 1.282 0.2326
2026 38 5.7498 562,082 0.1844 1.282 0.2364
2027 39 5.7811 604,088 0.1875 1.282 0.2403
2028 40 5.8124 649,232 0.1906 1.282 0.2442

∑▒ 〖𝑾𝟏𝟖〗 _𝒇𝒖𝒕𝒖
𝒓𝒐
de pavimentos
2014 - 2028

log(W18 futuro) W18 futuro

Conf.=90% Conf.=90%

5.5717 372,953
5.6055 403,222
5.6396 436,085
5.6737 471,768
5.7080 510,518
5.7424 552,604
5.7769 598,317
5.8116 647,976
5.8463 701,926
5.8811 760,544
5.9161 824,237
5.9511 893,452
5.9862 968,672
6.0214 1,050,425
6.0566 1,139,284

Conf. = 50% Conf.=90%

6,169,406 10,331,984
ANÁLISIS DE UNA SERIE HISTÓRICA DE TRÁNSITO MOPT - INVIAS Y PROYECC
Estación 184 Novedades: 1990. Conteo esporádico
Sector Alto del Pozo - Sardinata 2009. Datos de TPDS tomado de AY

Aforo de camiones. Aforo de camiones.


Composición
Total para siete (7) días. % del TPDS.
Año TPDS
%
% Autos % Buses C2P C2G C3C4 C5 >C5 %C2P %C2G
Camiones
1989 124 41% 17% 42% 167 199 3 0 0 19.2% 22.9%
1991 217 40% 7% 53% 330 468 10 0 0 21.7% 30.8%
1992 255 35% 8% 57% 507 511 5 2 0 28.4% 28.6%
1993 169 38% 10% 52% 225 368 11 3 0 19.0% 31.1%
1994 172 30% 13% 57% 184 489 10 0 0 15.3% 40.6%
1995 254 35% 12% 53% 389 345 189 40 0 21.9% 19.4%
1996 370 33% 9% 58% 351 1,130 5 5 5 13.6% 43.6%
1997 241 47% 9% 44% 208 501 13 9 0 12.3% 29.7%
1998 496 48% 4% 48% 286 1,209 155 6 8 8.2% 34.8%
1999 247 53% 14% 33% 157 383 38 2 0 9.1% 22.2%
2000 290 56% 9% 35% 172 515 12 1 2 8.5% 25.4%
2001 422 54% 7% 39% 440 686 33 0 0 14.9% 23.2%
2002 373 69% 9% 22% 192 347 35 0 0 7.4% 13.3%
2003 512 48% 4% 48% 286 1,209 155 6 8 8.0% 33.7%
2004 714 61% 4% 35% 448 928 67 65 257 9.0% 18.6%
2005 623 71% 7% 22% 293 604 4 1 68 6.7% 13.9%
2006 669 73% 6% 21% 284 722 0 0 1 6.1% 15.4%
2007 1,068 72% 6% 22% 314 494 67 161 601 4.2% 6.6%
2008 994 64% 6% 30% 316 605 143 103 894 4.5% 8.7%
2009 1,327 65% 6% 29% 481 705 265 227 1,023 5.2% 7.6%
2010 1,481 56% 8% 36% 712 903 423 382 1,293 6.9% 8.7%
(1) En ausencia de un FDV para los buses, tome 1.00.
(2) Si se dispone de varios FDV para la clase C3C4, emplee el mayor de todos.

6.25

6.00

5.75

5.50

5.25 f(x) = 0.0387851039480246 x + 4.44275310884988


log(W18)

R² = 0.604835404236288
5.00
5.75

5.50

5.25 f(x) = 0.0387851039480246 x + 4.44275310884988


log(W18) R² = 0.604835404236288
5.00

4.75

4.50

4.25

4.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Año - 1988

log(W18) Linear (log(W18)) log(W18 futuro). log(W18 futuro) Conf.=90%


Conf. = 50%
INVIAS Y PROYECCIÓN DEL NÚMERO DE EJES SENCILLOS EQUIVALENTES DE 80 kN.
Conteo esporádico
Datos de TPDS tomado de AYESA. Camiones interpolados.

Aforo de camiones.
Factor de deterioro vehicular (FDV) Factor Factor de NESE
% del TPDS.
direccional carril histórico
%C3C4 %C5 %>C5 B(1) C2P C2G C3C4(2) C5 >C5 (FD) (FCa) real (W18)

0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 0.10 2.80 6.70 5.30 5.90 0.50 1.00 19,334
0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 0.10 2.80 6.70 5.30 5.90 0.50 1.00 39,543
0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.50 1.00 61,843
0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.50 1.00 38,067
0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.50 1.00 43,125
10.6% 2.2% 0.0% 1.00 2.16 2.16 4.39 4.21 4.42 0.50 1.00 72,919
0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 118,926
0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 56,984
4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 137,056
2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 48,650
0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 57,124
1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 82,689
1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 1.14 3.44 3.76 4.40 4.72 0.50 1.00 45,772
4.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.90 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.50 1.00 101,659
1.3% 1.3% 5.1% 0.90 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.50 1.00 130,036
0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 0.90 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.50 1.00 67,295
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.90 2.15 2.15 3.15 4.21 5.31 0.50 1.00 63,121
0.9% 2.2% 8.0% 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.50 1.00 163,925
2.1% 1.5% 12.8% 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.50 1.00 210,982
2.9% 2.4% 11.0% 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.50 1.00 271,234
4.1% 3.7% 12.5% 1.00 1.01 2.72 3.72 4.88 5.23 0.50 1.00 370,338

Promedio de X
No. De datos
∑▒(𝒙−𝑿 ̅ )^
𝟐

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000
W18
1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

W18
600,000

400,000

200,000

29 31 33 35 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Año - 1988
turo) Conf.=90% NESE histórico real (W18) Linear (NESE histórico real (W18) ) W18 futuro. Conf. = 50%
W18 futuro Conf.=90%
NTES DE 80 kN.

[log(W18) -
Año (variable (𝒙−𝑿 ̅ )^
log(W18) log(W18 modelo) log(W18
X) 𝟐 modelo)]²

4.29 1 119.95 4.48 0.0381


4.60 3 80.15 4.56 0.0014
4.79 4 63.24 4.60 0.0374
4.58 5 48.34 4.64 0.0032
4.63 6 35.43 4.68 0.0017
4.86 7 24.53 4.71 0.0220
5.08 8 15.62 4.75 0.1037
4.76 9 8.72 4.79 0.0013
5.14 10 3.81 4.83 0.0937
4.69 11 0.91 4.87 0.0333
4.76 12 0.00 4.91 0.0230
4.92 13 1.10 4.95 0.0009
4.66 14 4.19 4.99 0.1059
5.01 15 9.29 5.02 0.0003
5.11 16 16.38 5.06 0.0025
4.83 17 25.48 5.10 0.0753
4.80 18 36.57 5.14 0.1163
5.21 19 49.67 5.18 0.0012
5.32 20 64.76 5.22 0.0111
5.43 21 81.86 5.26 0.0309
5.57 22 100.95 5.30 0.0741

Promedio de X 11.95 ∑▒[log⁡(𝑊18)−log⁡(𝑊18 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑜) ]^𝟐


No. De datos 21 0.7774
∑▒(𝒙−𝑿 ̅ )^
𝟐 790.95 Error de estimación, Sw 0.20
27 29 31 33 35

W18 futuro. Conf. = 50%


Proyección del tránsito para el diseño estructural de pavimentos
Periodo de diseño estructural 15 años 2014 - 2028

log(W18 Confiabilidad
Año (variable W18 futuro. σ de
Año futuro). Corrección
X) Conf. = 50% pronóstico
Conf. = 50% 90%

2014 26 5.4516 282,879 0.2304 1.282 0.2952


2015 27 5.4904 309,314 0.2336 1.282 0.2994
2016 28 5.5292 338,221 0.2370 1.282 0.3038
2017 29 5.5680 369,828 0.2406 1.282 0.3084
2018 30 5.6068 404,390 0.2444 1.282 0.3132
2019 31 5.6456 442,181 0.2483 1.282 0.3181
2020 32 5.6844 483,504 0.2523 1.282 0.3233
2021 33 5.7232 528,689 0.2565 1.282 0.3287
2022 34 5.7620 578,096 0.2608 1.282 0.3342
2023 35 5.8008 632,121 0.2652 1.282 0.3399
2024 36 5.8396 691,194 0.2698 1.282 0.3457
2025 37 5.8784 755,788 0.2744 1.282 0.3517
2026 38 5.9172 826,418 0.2792 1.282 0.3578
2027 39 5.9560 903,649 0.2841 1.282 0.3641
2028 40 5.9948 988,098 0.2891 1.282 0.3704

∑▒ 〖𝑾𝟏𝟖〗 _𝒇𝒖𝒕𝒖
𝒓𝒐
de pavimentos
2014 - 2028

log(W18 futuro) W18 futuro

Conf.=90% Conf.=90%

5.7468 558,250
5.7898 616,291
5.8330 680,715
5.8764 752,244
5.9200 831,679
5.9637 919,915
6.0077 1,017,948
6.0519 1,126,887
6.0962 1,247,967
6.1407 1,382,568
6.1853 1,532,224
6.2301 1,698,645
6.2750 1,883,738
6.3201 2,089,629
6.3652 2,318,684

Conf. = 50% Conf.=90%

8,534,369 18,657,385

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