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    Suavizamiento Holt-Winters (Tendencia)

    Cargado por

    Carlos Dianderas
    The document shows the results of two different forecasting models - Holt-Winters with only trend (top) and Holt-Winters with both trend and seasonality (bottom). Each model smoothes the actual demand data over time and uses the smoothed values to generate forecasts. The forecasts are compared to the actual subsequent demand values to evaluate forecast accuracy.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Descargue como XLSX, PDF, TXT o lea en línea desde Scribd

    Suavizamiento Holt-Winters (Tendencia)

    Cargado por

    Carlos Dianderas
    23 vistas3 páginas
    The document shows the results of two different forecasting models - Holt-Winters with only trend (top) and Holt-Winters with both trend and seasonality (bottom). Each model smoothes the actual demand data over time and uses the smoothed values to generate forecasts. The forecasts are compared to the actual subsequent demand values to evaluate forecast accuracy.

    Descripción original:

    Metodo de PCP

    Título original

    Holt Winters

    Derechos de autor

    © © All Rights Reserved

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    XLSX, PDF, TXT o lea en línea desde Scribd

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    The document shows the results of two different forecasting models - Holt-Winters with only trend (top) and Holt-Winters with both trend and seasonality (bottom). Each model smoothes the actual demand data over time and uses the smoothed values to generate forecasts. The forecasts are compared to the actual subsequent demand values to evaluate forecast accuracy.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Descargue como XLSX, PDF, TXT o lea en línea desde Scribd
    Descargar como xlsx, pdf o txt
    23 vistas3 páginas

    Suavizamiento Holt-Winters (Tendencia)

    Cargado por

    Carlos Dianderas
    The document shows the results of two different forecasting models - Holt-Winters with only trend (top) and Holt-Winters with both trend and seasonality (bottom). Each model smoothes the actual demand data over time and uses the smoothed values to generate forecasts. The forecasts are compared to the actual subsequent demand values to evaluate forecast accuracy.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Descargue como XLSX, PDF, TXT o lea en línea desde Scribd
    Descargar como xlsx, pdf o txt
    de 3

    Pronostico Tendencia Pronostico SUAVIZAMIENTO HOLT-WINTERS (TEN

    Periodo Demanda Suavizado Suavizada con TendenciMAD


    X 0.8 0.4 F
    1 1750 1750 0 0
    2 1742 1743.6 -2.56 1750.00 8.00
    3 1805 1792.21 17.91 1741.04 63.96 E(t) = Pronostico Suavizado
    4 1620 1658.02 -42.93 1810.12 190.12 T(t) = Tendencia Suavizada
    5 1488 1513.42 -83.60 1615.09 127.09 X(t) = Demanda real
    6 1376 1386.76 -100.82 1429.82 53.82 F(t+1) = Demanda pronosticada
    7 1193 1211.59 -130.56 1285.94 92.94
    8 1014 1027.41 -152.01 1081.03 67.03
    9 1200 1135.08 -48.14 875.39 324.61
    10 1288 1247.79 16.20 1086.94 201.06
    11 1457 1418.40 77.96 1263.99 193.01
    12 1354 1382.47 32.41 1496.36 142.36
    13 1477 1464.58 52.29 1414.88 62.12
    14 1475 1483.37 38.89 1516.86 41.86
    15 1450 1464.45 15.77 1522.26 72.26
    16 1480.22 117.16

    Pronostico Tendencia EstacionalidaPronostico SUAVIZAMIENTO HOLT-WIN


    Periodo Demanda Suavizado Suavizada Suavizada Tend/Estaci MAD
    X 0.8 0.4 0.3 Y
    1 1750 1750 0 1 0
    2 1742 1743.60 -2.56 0.9997 1750 8
    3 1805 1792.61 18.07 1.00 1740.56 64.4392953
    4 1620 1655.70 -43.92 0.99 1814.08 194.078744 E(t) = Pronostico Suavizado
    5 1488 1518.92 -81.07 0.99 1603.47 115.474982 T(t) = Tendencia Suavizada
    6 1376 1399.17 -96.54 0.99 1423.89 47.888239 S(t) = Estacionalidad suavizada
    7 1193 1226.29 -127.08 0.98 1287.30 94.3001109 X(t) = Demanda real
    8 1014 1044.55 -148.94 0.98 1081.21 67.2080544 F(t+1) = Demanda pronosticada
    9 1200 1158.96 -43.60 1.00 877.48 322.516428
    10 1288 1257.14 13.11 1.00 1111.40 176.600633
    11 1457 1413.98 70.61 1.01 1276.45 180.549715
    12 1354 1366.70 23.45 1.01 1503.21 149.214253
    13 1477 1452.59 48.43 1.01 1398.48 78.5209572
    14 1475 1469.40 35.78 1.01 1514.88 39.8798807
    15 1450 1452.28 14.62 1.00 1516.64 66.6361704
    16 1474.02 114.664819
    IENTO HOLT-WINTERS (TENDENCIA)

    co Suavizado
    2000
    ia Suavizada

    nda pronosticada 1500

    1000 Column B
    Column C
    Column D
    500 Column E

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

    -500

    UAVIZAMIENTO HOLT-WINTERS ADITIVO (TENDENCIA Y ESTACIONALIDAD)

    (t) = Pronostico Suavizado


    (t) = Tendencia Suavizada 2000
    (t) = Estacionalidad suavizada
    (t) = Demanda real
    (t+1) = Demanda pronosticada 1500

    Column B
    1000
    Column C
    Column D
    Column E
    500
    Column F

    0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    -500

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