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2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma

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For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections. For the other Senate election in Oklahoma held in parallel, see 2022 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma.
Not to be confused with 2022 Oklahoma Senate election.

2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
← 2016 November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2028 →
 
Nominee James Lankford Madison Horn
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 739,960 369,370
Percentage 64.30% 32.10%
Lankford:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Horn:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

James Lankford
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

James Lankford
Republican

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oklahoma.[1] Incumbent senator James Lankford won re-election to a second full term, defeating cybersecurity professional Madison Horn (no relation to former U.S. Representative Kendra Horn, who ran for the concurrent special election to the Class II seat) in a landslide, winning all 77 counties with more than 50% of the vote in each.

Lankford was first elected in 2014 special election with 68% of the vote, succeeding retiring fellow Republican Tom Coburn.[2] He won re-election to a first full term in 2016 with 68% of the vote.[3]

The primary elections for the Republican, Democratic, and Libertarian parties' nominations took place on June 28, 2022, with runoffs taking place on August 23, 2022.[1] All candidates had to file between the days of April 13–15, 2022.[1]

Despite his comfortable victory, with slightly over 64% of the vote received this was Lankford's worst performance in his career, as in each of his previous two elections he won nearly 68%. This also marked the best performance by a Democratic candidate since 2004 in the Class III seat.

Republican primary

[edit]

On March 16, 2021, Jackson Lahmeyer announced his campaign for the Republican nomination for United States Senate seat held by James Lankford. While Lankford had not formally announced, he was expected to run for reelection.[4] On April 6, Lankford officially announced he would seek reelection in an interview with the Tulsa World.[5] The Oklahoman reported that Joan Farr announced her candidacy for the Oklahoma and Kansas U.S. Senate seats sometime in August.[6] On September 28, state senator Nathan Dahm announced his campaign for Lankford's seat.[6] In November the Tulsa World reported that Jessica Jean Garrison, the daughter of former state senator Earl Garrison, would also campaign in the contested Republican primary.[7] On February 28, 2022, Nathan Dahm announced he had switched his campaign to the special election in the Class 2 seat.[8] Jessica Jean Garrison also switched her campaign to the special election when filing. Lankford won the June primary with 67% of the vote.[9]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew before filing

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]

James Lankford and Jackson Lahmeyer courted the endorsement of Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States, but Trump did not endorse a candidate prior to the primary.[10][11]

On June 29, 2021, Lankford's campaign published its supposed endorsement by state representative Kevin McDugle. McDugle later went on social media claiming to have never made the endorsement; Lankford's campaign subsequently removed his name from their endorsement list.[12]

Jackson Lahmeyer
Federal Executive Branch officials
State Senators
State representatives
Mayors
Individuals
Organizations
James Lankford
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide elected officials
State legislators
Individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Labor unions

Debates

[edit]

The Oil & Gas Workers Association of Oklahoma offered to host a debate for the Republican primary. Invitations were extended to candidates Jackson Lahmeyer and James Lankford, but Lankford refused the invitation.[52]

2022 Republican primary debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Joan
Farr 		Jackson
Lahmeyer 		James
Lankford
1 Cancelled Oil & Gas Workers Association of Oklahoma - - N I I

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joan
Farr 		Jackson
Lahmeyer 		James
Lankford 		Other Undecided
Amber Integrated (R) June 6–9, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 4% 12% 68% – 15%
SoonerPoll April 25 – May 11, 2022 306 (LV) ± 5.6% 2% 8% 74% – 16%
Amber Integrated (R) March 24–27, 2022 455 (LV) ± 4.6% 0% 10% 63% 3%[b] 24%
Amber Integrated (R) December 15–19, 2021 253 (RV) ± 6.2% – 8% 56% 12%[c] 24%
Amber Integrated (R) September 29 – October 3, 2021 253 (RV) ± 6.2% – 21% 62% 4%[d] 12%

Results

[edit]
Primary results by county:
  Lankford
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican James Lankford (incumbent) 243,132 67.83%
Republican Jackson Lahmeyer 94,572 26.38%
Republican Joan Farr 20,761 5.79%
Total votes 358,465 100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Madison Horn, cybersecurity professional[53][54]

Eliminated in runoff

[edit]

Eliminated in initial primary

[edit]
  • Arya Azma, security trader[56]
  • Dennis Baker[56]
  • Jo Glenn, attorney[57]
  • Brandon Wade, machinery assembler[56]

Failed to file

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

First round

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Initial primary results by county:
Map legend
  •   Horn—40–50%
  •   Horn—<40%
  •   Bollinger—<40%
  •   Baker—<40%
  •   Bollinger/Baker tie—<40%
  •   Wade—<40%
Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Madison Horn 60,691 37.19%
Democratic Jason Bollinger 27,374 16.77%
Democratic Dennis Baker 22,467 13.77%
Democratic Jo Glenn 21,198 12.99%
Democratic Brandon Wade 19,986 12.25%
Democratic Arya Azma 11,478 7.03%
Total votes 163,194 100.0%

Runoff

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Madison Horn 60,929 65.48%
Democratic Jason Bollinger 32,121 34.52%
Total votes 93,050 100.0%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[62] Solid R November 19, 2021
Inside Elections[63] Solid R January 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[64] Safe R November 3, 2021
Politico[65] Solid R April 1, 2022
RCP[66] Safe R January 10, 2022
Fox News[67] Solid R May 12, 2022
DDHQ[68] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[69] Solid R June 30, 2022
The Economist[70] Safe R September 7, 2022

Endorsements

[edit]
James Lankford (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide elected officials
State Senators
State Representatives
Individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Labor unions
Madison Horn (D)
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		James
Lankford (R) 		Madison
Horn (D) 		Other
[e] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight September 15 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 56.9% 34.9% 8.2% Lankford +22.0
270towin October 11 - November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 54.3% 36.8% 8.9% Lankford +17.5
Average 55.6% 35.8% 8.6% Lankford +19.8
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		James
Lankford (R) 		Madison
Horn (D) 		Other Undecided
Ascend Action (R) November 5–6, 2022 682 (LV) ± 3.8% 56% 36% 3%[f] 4%
Amber Integrated (R) October 26–28, 2022 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 38% 7%[g] 3%
Emerson College October 25–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 57% 33% 3%[h] 8%
62% 34% 4%[i] –
Ascend Action (R) October 24–28, 2022 749 (LV) ± 3.6% 51% 35% 5%[j] 9%
Amber Integrated (R) October 13–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 36% 7%[k] 4%
Ascend Action (R) October 10–12, 2022 638 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 37% 3%[l] 9%
SoonerPoll October 3–6, 2022 301 (LV) – 52% 40% 2%[m] 6%
Amber Integrated (R) September 19–21, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 34% – 14%
–(L)[n] September 15–18, 2022 2,989 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 27% 11%[o] 13%
SoonerPoll September 2–7, 2022 402 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 35% 4%[p] 13%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 522 (RV) ± 6.3% 59% 29% – 12%

Results

[edit]
2022 United States Senate election in Oklahoma[80][81]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican James Lankford (incumbent) 739,960 64.30% −3.44%
Democratic Madison Horn 369,370 32.10% +7.52%
Independent Michael Delaney 20,907 1.82% N/A
Libertarian Kenneth Blevins 20,495 1.78% −1.22%
Total votes 1,150,732 100.0%
Turnout 1,150,732 50.12%
Registered electors 2,295,906
Republican hold

By congressional district

[edit]

Lankford won all 5 congressional districts.[82]

District Lankford Horn Representative
1st 59.0% 37.6% Kevin Hern
2nd 73.3% 23.3% Markwayne Mullin (117th Congress)
Josh Brecheen (118th Congress)
3rd 70.1% 26.2% Frank Lucas
4th 63.1% 33.0% Tom Cole
5th 57.6% 38.9% Stephanie Bice

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Garrison with 3%
  3. ^ Dahm with 9%, "Other" with 3%
  4. ^ Dahm with 3%, "Other" with 1%
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ Delaney (I) with 2%; Blevins (L) with 1%
  7. ^ Delaney (I) with 4%; Blevins (L) with 3%
  8. ^ Delaney (I) with 2%; Blevins (L) with 1%
  9. ^ Delaney (I) with 3%; Blevins (L) with 1%
  10. ^ Delaney (I) with 3%; Blevins (L) with 2%
  11. ^ Delaney (I) with 4%; Blevins (L) with 3%
  12. ^ Delaney (I) with 2%; Blevins (L) with 1%
  13. ^ Delaney with 2%; Blevins with 0%
  14. ^ This poll was conducted in-house by and for Natalie Bruno's campaign for Governor
  15. ^ Blevins with 9%; Delaney with 2%
  16. ^ Delaney with 4%

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c "2022 Statutory Election Dates and Deadlines" (PDF). oklahoma.gov. Oklahoma State Election Board. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 25, 2022. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  2. ^ "Federal, State, Legislative and Judicial Races General Election — November 4, 2014". Oklahoma.gov. Oklahoma State Election Board. Archived from the original on April 8, 2021. Retrieved March 25, 2021.
  3. ^ "Federal, State, Legislative and Judicial Races General Election — November 8, 2016". Oklahoma.gov. Oklahoma State Election Board. Archived from the original on April 8, 2021. Retrieved March 25, 2021.
  4. ^ a b Krehbiel, Randy (March 17, 2021). "Tulsa pastor challenges Lankford for Senate with boost from Trump loyalist Michael Flynn". Tulsa World. Retrieved March 19, 2021.
  5. ^ a b Krehbiel, Randy (April 6, 2021). "Sen. Lankford says reelection bid will be about him being him". Tulsa World. Retrieved April 7, 2021.
  6. ^ a b c Casteel, Chris (September 28, 2021). "State senator Nathan Dahm joins race against incumbent Sen. James Lankford". The Oklahoman. Retrieved September 29, 2021.
  7. ^ a b Krehbiel, Randy (November 14, 2021). "Political notebook: State and local officials awaiting details on infrastructure bill money". Tulsa World. Retrieved November 14, 2021.
  8. ^ a b Canfield, Kevin (February 28, 2022). "Mayor Bynum won't run for Senate; Nathan Dahm shifts campaign to Inhofe's seat". Tulsa World. Retrieved February 28, 2022.
  9. ^ a b c "OK Election Results - June 28, 2022". Oklahoma State Election Board.
  10. ^ Swan, Jonathan (March 17, 2021). "Kissing the ring: Inside the GOP courtship of Trump's endorsement". Axios. Retrieved March 21, 2021.
  11. ^ Mantyla, Kyle (December 14, 2021). "Right Wing Bonus Tracks: The Dumb Vote". Right Wing Watch. Retrieved January 4, 2022.
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  13. ^ Gilbert, Amanda (March 16, 2021). "Former Trump advisor Michael Flynn endorses Tulsa pastor challenging Lankford for Senate seat". Fox 23. Retrieved March 18, 2021.
  14. ^ Krehbiel, Randy (August 19, 2021). "Lankford's 2022 campaign launch contrasts with primary opponent's". Tulsa World. Retrieved August 22, 2021.
  15. ^ Martin, Stacy (May 28, 2022). "Jackson Lahmeyer poses the question: Can he beat James Lankford?". The Oklahoma City Sentinel. Retrieved May 29, 2022. Also in Lahmeyer's corner: ... Senator Warren Hamilton R-Oklahoma
  16. ^ Gorman, Reese (September 12, 2021). "Republican primary a "real time test" of party's state". The Norman Transcript. Retrieved September 12, 2021.
  17. ^ a b Brown, Trevor (June 6, 2022). "The Misinformation Election: Lies, Conspiracy Theories Prominent in Many GOP Races". Oklahoma Watch. Retrieved June 6, 2022. The U.S. Senate hopeful [Lahmeyer] has received endorsements ... from ... Roger Stone, retired Gen. Michael Flynn, MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
  18. ^ Mantyla, Kyle (July 19, 2021). "Right Wing Bonus Tracks: Commander of the Spirit Force". Right Wing Watch. Retrieved July 23, 2021.
  19. ^ Guff, Samantha; Russell, Lacey (May 29, 2021). "How a pastor's spread of Covid misinformation divided one Tennessee family B". CNN. Retrieved July 23, 2021.
  20. ^ Cillizza, Chris (July 7, 2021). "The Big Lie is now a litmus test for this Republican senator". CNN. Retrieved July 7, 2021.
  21. ^ Krehbiel, Randy (November 23, 2021). "GOP hopeful Jackson Lahmeyer endorsed by Trump ally Roger Stone". Tulsa World. Retrieved November 24, 2021.
  22. ^ Krehbiel, Randy (July 17, 2021). "U.S. Senate Challenger Lahmeyer reports $200,000 in second quarter contributions". Tulsa World. Retrieved July 18, 2021.
  23. ^ Brodey, Sam (July 7, 2021). "Oklahoma GOP Turns on Senator for Not Worshipping Trump Enough". The Daily Beast. Retrieved July 8, 2021.
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  25. ^ Krehbiel, Randy (May 22, 2022). "Political notebook: Abortion bill aftershocks reverberate". Tulsa World. Retrieved May 22, 2022.
  26. ^ Brooks, Emily (July 6, 2021). "James Lankford's election-truther challenger gets 'unheard of' boost from GOP officials". Washington Examiner. Retrieved July 8, 2021.
  27. ^ Martin, Stacy (June 22, 2022). "Jackson Lahmeyer gains endorsement and gives one – and he shows well in polling". The Oklahoma City Sentinel. Retrieved June 23, 2022.
  28. ^ a b c Krehbiel, Randy (April 22, 2022). "Political notebook: State election board to hear 12 contested candidacy petitions". Tulsa World. Retrieved April 24, 2022.
  29. ^ "2022 OKHPR-PAC Primary Race Endorsements". OKHPR. June 4, 2022. Retrieved June 5, 2022.
  30. ^ "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Jackson Lahmeyer for U.S. Senate". Republicans for National Renewal. December 17, 2021. Retrieved May 20, 2022.
  31. ^ a b Casteel, Chris (March 5, 2022). "Sen. James Lankford challenger Jackson Lahmeyer claims support of grassroots Republicans". The Oklahoman. Retrieved March 6, 2022.
  32. ^ a b Felder, Ben (April 10, 2021). "Inhofe defends his vote for Biden's win as Republican officials call for party unity". The Frontier. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  33. ^ a b Reese, Gorman (January 16, 2022). "Senator claims country under tyranny at Cleveland County GOP event". The Norman Transcript. Retrieved February 1, 2022.
  34. ^ a b Krehbiel, Randy (March 27, 2022). "Political notebook: Deadline behind it, Legislature looks for a breather". Tulsa World. Retrieved March 27, 2022.
  35. ^ a b Felder, Ben (March 29, 2021). "In pro-Trump Oklahoma, a challenge to an incumbent senator taps into election anger". The Frontier. Retrieved March 29, 2021.
  36. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd "Lankford Announces First Leadership Endorsements One-Year Out from GOP Primary". Oklahoma Farm Report. June 29, 2021. Retrieved August 7, 2021.
  37. ^ a b Krehbiel, Randy (October 17, 2021). "Political notebook: Polling indicates Oklahomans more concerned about COVID and less happy with elected leaders". Tulsa World. Retrieved October 17, 2021.
  38. ^ a b McGuinan, Patrick (September 8, 2021). "With Susan B. Anthony List endorsement in hand, James Lankford leavens state endorsements with Mike Pompeo's strong affirmation". The Oklahoma City Sentinel. Retrieved March 20, 2022.
  39. ^ a b Krehbiel, Randy (September 19, 2021). "Political notebook: Trump called Tulsa rally 'biggest f—ing mistake' in new Bob Woodward book". Tulsa World. Retrieved September 19, 2021.
  40. ^ a b c d Casteel, Chris (February 12, 2022). "James Lankford buys ad time as opponent fumes about conservative group's endorsement". The Oklahoman. Retrieved February 12, 2022.
  41. ^ a b Gorman, Reese (March 14, 2022). "On The Trail #2". The Frontier. Retrieved March 14, 2022.
  42. ^ a b "Editorial: Tulsa Beacon endorsements". Tulsa Beacon. June 16, 2022. Retrieved June 26, 2022.
  43. ^ a b "Political notebook: Hofmeister event in Tulsa Sunday". Tulsa World. May 15, 2022. Retrieved May 15, 2022.
  44. ^ a b c d Krehbiel, Randy (June 5, 2022). "Political notebook: Markwayne Mullin says Second Amendment "purity" takes priority in gun violence discussions". Tulsa World. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
  45. ^ a b McGuinan, Patrick (May 28, 2022). "Boosted with NFIB endorsement, James Lankford leads Jackson Lahmeyer in U.S. Senate race as June 28 Republican primary nears". The Oklahoma City Sentinel. Retrieved May 29, 2022. Sen. Lankford's re-election drive secured the support of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). "Oklahoma small businesses are proud to endorse Senator Lankford for re-election," said the group's state director, Jerrod Shouse.
  46. ^ a b "NRA-PVF - Grades - Oklahoma". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved July 17, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
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  48. ^ a b Faught, Jamison (June 2, 2022). "Nat'l Right to Life endorses Lankford, Stitt for reelection, O'Connor for AG". Muskogee Politico. Archived from the original on June 2, 2022. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
  49. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates". Pro-Israel America. Archived from the original on December 20, 2021. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
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  51. ^ a b Krehbiel, Randy (February 20, 2022). "Political notebook: Conservative groups backing Treat bill turn on the heat". Tulsa World. Retrieved February 20, 2022.
  52. ^ Casteel, Chris (March 19, 2022). "Oklahoma Sen. James Lankford says he won't debate Jackson Lahmeyer, calls appeals a 'sideshow'". The Oklahoman. Retrieved March 19, 2022.
  53. ^ "Meet Madison Horn, the self-described "Conservative Democrat" running for US Senate in Oklahoma". KRMG. November 7, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
  54. ^ a b Krehbiel, Randy (June 28, 2022). "Sen. James Lankford wins GOP primary in race for second term". Tulsa World. Retrieved June 29, 2022.
  55. ^ Krehbiel, Randy (October 1, 2021). "Democrat Jason Bollinger enters U.S. Senate race". Tulsa World. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
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  58. ^ "Democratic Oklahoma City attorney jumps into US Senate race". Tulsa World. AP. September 30, 2021. Archived from the original on October 1, 2021. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
  59. ^ World, Randy Krehbiel and Kevin Canfield Tulsa (February 28, 2022). "Mayor Bynum won't run for Senate; Nathan Dahm shifts campaign to Inhofe's seat". Tulsa World. Retrieved March 1, 2022.
  60. ^ Casteel, Chris (March 15, 2022). "Kendra Horn files for Jim Inhofe's Senate seat". The Oklahoman. Retrieved March 15, 2022.
  61. ^ "OK Election Results - August 23, 2022". Oklahoma State Election Board.
  62. ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  63. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  64. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  65. ^ "Oklahoma Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.[permanent dead link]
  66. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
  67. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  68. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  69. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  70. ^ "The Economist's 2022 Senate Election forecast". The Economist. September 18, 2022. Retrieved September 18, 2022.
  71. ^ "Endorsement of Senator James Lankford". Truth Social.
  72. ^ "Endorsement: Sen. James Lankford should get another term, but needs to abandon divisiveness". October 28, 2022.
  73. ^ "Endorsed Candidates - National Women's Political Caucus". www.nwpc.org. Retrieved October 12, 2022.
  74. ^ "Media Center - No Dem Left Behind". www.nodemleftbehind.com. Retrieved October 12, 2022.
  75. ^ "2022 Mid Term Election Candidate Endorsements". www.okdemvets.org. Retrieved October 12, 2022.
  76. ^ "Political Endorsements - Sally's List". sallyslist.org. Retrieved October 12, 2022.
  77. ^ "2022 Candidates for Common Good". Vote Common Good. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  78. ^ "Oklahoma Endorsed Candidates 2022 | CWA District 6".
  79. ^ "Endorsement: Madison Horn for US Senate". The Black Wall Street Times. November 2, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  80. ^ "November 8 2022 Oklahoma Official results". results.okelections.us. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  81. ^ "Current Registration Statistics by County" (PDF). oklahoma.gov. November 1, 2022. Retrieved December 9, 2022.
  82. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
[edit]
Official campaign websites
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