2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska: Difference between revisions
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==Analysis== |
==Analysis== |
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Biden won only the two most populous counties in the state: [[Douglas County, Nebraska|Douglas County]], home to Omaha, by 11 points, approximately the same margin [[Lyndon B. Johnson]] won the county within [[1964 United States presidential election in Nebraska|1964]] and the best result for Democrats since that election, and [[Lancaster County, Nebraska|Lancaster County]], home to the state's second-largest city and state capital [[Lincoln, Nebraska|Lincoln]], where the [[University of Nebraska–Lincoln|University of Nebraska]] is located, by just under 8 points, another 56-year high for Democrats. While he didn't win the state's third largest, [[Sarpy County, Nebraska|Sarpy County]], a growing suburban county to the south of Omaha, which in all presidential elections from 1968 to 2016 except 2008 had backed the Republican candidate by at least 21 points, he reduced Trump's winning margin to only 11 points and won 43 percent of the vote there, again a 56-year best for Democrats. Biden also received more than 40 percent of the vote in two counties in the northeastern corner of the state: [[Thurston County, Nebraska|Thurston County]] |
Biden won only the two most populous counties in the state: [[Douglas County, Nebraska|Douglas County]], home to Omaha, by 11 points, approximately the same margin [[Lyndon B. Johnson]] won the county within [[1964 United States presidential election in Nebraska|1964]] and the best result for Democrats since that election, and [[Lancaster County, Nebraska|Lancaster County]], home to the state's second-largest city and state capital [[Lincoln, Nebraska|Lincoln]], where the [[University of Nebraska–Lincoln|University of Nebraska]] is located, by just under 8 points, another 56-year high for Democrats. While he didn't win the state's third largest, [[Sarpy County, Nebraska|Sarpy County]], a growing suburban county to the south of Omaha, which in all presidential elections from 1968 to 2016 except 2008 had backed the Republican candidate by at least 21 points, he reduced Trump's winning margin to only 11 points and won 43 percent of the vote there, again a 56-year best for Democrats. Biden also received more than 40 percent of the vote in two counties in the northeastern corner of the state: [[Thurston County, Nebraska|Thurston County]], of which Trump only won by a plurality of 49.6% and is home to a Native American majority, and [[Dakota County, Nebraska|Dakota County]], located to the north of the former and is home to a large Hispanic population.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Leip|first=Dave|title=2020 Presidential General Election Results - Nebraska|url=https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2020&fips=31&f=0&off=0&elect=0|website=Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections}}</ref> |
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Per [[exit poll]]s by the [[Associated Press]], Trump's strength in Nebraska came from [[White Americans|whites]], who constituted 90% of the electorate, and specifically from [[Protestantism|Protestants]] with 70%. Post-election, many rural Nebraskans expressed worries about [[Trade policy of Donald Trump|trade]] and the [[Economic policy of Donald Trump administration|economy]] under a Biden presidency,<ref>{{Cite news|last=Searcey|first=Dionne|date=2020-11-08|title=A Nation Votes for Joe Biden, and a Red State Shrugs|language=en-US|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/08/us/politics/nebraska-trump-biden.html|access-date=2020-11-09|issn=0362-4331}}</ref> with 59% of voters stating they trusted Trump more to handle [[Foreign trade of the United States|international trade]].<ref name=":14">{{Cite news|date=2020-11-03|title=Nebraska Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted|language=en-US|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/ap-polls-nebraska.html|access-date=2020-11-09|issn=0362-4331}}</ref> Joe Biden improved on [[Hillary Clinton]]'s performance in Nebraska, as he did in most other states. Despite his loss, Biden's 374,583 votes are the most received by a Democratic candidate for president statewide in Nebraska, surpassing the previous record set by [[Franklin D. Roosevelt]] in the [[1932 United States presidential election in Nebraska|1932 landslide]]. |
Per [[exit poll]]s by the [[Associated Press]], Trump's strength in Nebraska came from [[White Americans|whites]], who constituted 90% of the electorate, and specifically from [[Protestantism|Protestants]] with 70%. Post-election, many rural Nebraskans expressed worries about [[Trade policy of Donald Trump|trade]] and the [[Economic policy of Donald Trump administration|economy]] under a Biden presidency,<ref>{{Cite news|last=Searcey|first=Dionne|date=2020-11-08|title=A Nation Votes for Joe Biden, and a Red State Shrugs|language=en-US|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/08/us/politics/nebraska-trump-biden.html|access-date=2020-11-09|issn=0362-4331}}</ref> with 59% of voters stating they trusted Trump more to handle [[Foreign trade of the United States|international trade]].<ref name=":14">{{Cite news|date=2020-11-03|title=Nebraska Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted|language=en-US|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/ap-polls-nebraska.html|access-date=2020-11-09|issn=0362-4331}}</ref> Joe Biden improved on [[Hillary Clinton]]'s performance in Nebraska, as he did in most other states. Despite his loss, Biden's 374,583 votes are the most received by a Democratic candidate for president statewide in Nebraska, surpassing the previous record set by [[Franklin D. Roosevelt]] in the [[1932 United States presidential election in Nebraska|1932 landslide]]. |
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| Elections in Nebraska |
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 Government |
The 2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Nebraska has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, two from the state at large, and one each from the three congressional districts.[3]
Located in the conservative Great Plains, Nebraska is one of the most reliably Republican states in the country, having backed the Democratic presidential nominee only once since 1936, during Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide, and having gone to the Republican nominee by a double-digit margin in every presidential election since. However, Nebraska is one of two states, the other being Maine, to allocate its electoral votes by congressional district. A candidate receives one electoral vote for each district won while the statewide winner receives an additional two electoral votes. Ever since Nebraska first adopted this system in 1992, in practice the Republican nominee has almost always won all three districts, and hence all the state's electoral votes. The first time it split its electoral votes came in 2008 when Barack Obama carried Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, anchored by Omaha, and thus received one electoral vote from the state despite losing statewide. The 2nd district returned to the Republican column in the following two elections, but in 2020 it was considered a key battleground.
Trump carried Nebraska statewide by 19 points on Election Day, down from 25 points in 2016. Biden was able to flip the 2nd district, carrying it by 6.6 points, the best Democratic performance since Nebraska first adopted its system of allocation by district, and the first time in this period that the district has voted more Democratic than the nation. Trump received the state's other four electoral votes. Before the election, all news organizations declared Nebraska a safe red state, while most organizations viewed the 2nd district as either leaning towards Biden or a tossup. This was the first election in which both Nebraska and Maine split their electoral votes.
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on May 12, 2020.
Republican primary
Donald Trump was declared the winner in the Republican primary,[4] and thus received all of Nebraska's 36 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[5]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 243,721 | 91.4 | 36 |
| Bill Weld | 22,934 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Total | 266,655 | 100% | 36 |
Democratic primary
Joe Biden was declared the winner in the Democratic primary.[4]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[7] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 126,444 | 76.83 | 29 |
| Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 23,214 | 14.10 | |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 10,401 | 6.32 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 4,523 | 2.75 | |
| Total | 164,582 | 100% | 29 |
Libertarian primary
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 Election results by county
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Jo Jorgensen was declared the winner of the Libertarian primary and went on to win the LP nomination.[8]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Jo Jorgensen | 508 | 27.8% |
| Jacob Hornberger | 444 | 24.3% |
| Adam Kokesh | 263 | 14.4% |
| Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn) | 254 | 13.9% |
| Max Abramson (withdrawn) | 182 | 10.0% |
| Dan Behrman | 177 | 9.7% |
| Total | 1,828 | 100% |
General election
Final predictions
| Source | Ranking (statewide) | Ranking (1st) | Ranking (2nd) | Ranking (3rd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D (flip) | Solid R |
| Inside Elections[11] | Solid R | Solid R | Tilt D (flip) | Solid R |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Safe R | Safe R | Lean D (flip) | Safe R |
| Politico[13] | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D (flip) | Solid R |
| RCP[14] | Solid R | Solid R | Tossup | Solid R |
| Niskanen[15] | Safe R | Safe R | Tossup | Safe R |
| CNN[16] | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D (flip) | Solid R |
| The Economist[17] | Safe R | Not given | Not given | Not given |
| CBS News[18] | Likely R | Likely R | Lean D (flip) | Likely R |
| 270towin[19] | Safe R | Safe R | Lean D (flip) | Safe R |
| ABC News[20] | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D (flip) | Solid R |
| NPR[21] | Likely R | Lean R | Lean D (flip) | Likely R |
| NBC News[22] | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D (flip) | Solid R |
| 538[23] | Solid R | Solid R | Lean D (flip) | Solid R |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[24] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 42.5% | 52.1% | 5.4% | Trump +9.7 |
Statewide
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[25] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,742 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56%[c] | 43% | − | − | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[25] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 2,423 (LV) | – | 53% | 46% | − | − | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[25] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 799 (LV) | – | 57% | 41% | − | − | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[25] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 560 (LV) | – | 53% | 47% | − | − | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[25] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 910 (LV) | – | 54% | 44% | − | − | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[25] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 267 (LV) | – | 56% | 42% | − | − | 2% |
in Nebraska's 1st congressional district
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategies 360/Kate Bolz[26][A] | Jul 16–22, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | − | − | – |
in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
| Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Nevada[27] | Oct 30 – Nov 2, 2020 | 191 (LV) | ± 7% | 44% | 50% | 5% | – | – |
| Change Research[28] | Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 50% | 2% | 0%[d] | 0% |
| Emerson College[29] | Oct 29–30, 2020 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48%[e] | 50% | – | 2%[f] | – |
| FM3 Research/Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC[30][B] | Oct 1–4, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 42% | 53% | − | 5%[g] | – |
| Siena College/NYT[31] | Sep 25–27, 2020 | 420 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 41% | 48% | 4% | 1%[h] | 6%[i] |
| Global Strategy Group/House Majority PAC[32][C] | Sep 14–16, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 50% | − | 1%[j] | 3%[i] |
| Global Strategy Group/House Majority PAC[32][C] | Jul 27–29, 2020 | 400 (LV) | – | 45% | 51% | − | 2%[k] | 3%[i] |
| GQR/Kara Eastman[33][D] | Jun 30 – Jul 5, 2020 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.37% | 44% | 51% | − | – | – |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department/Ally Mutnick[34][E] | May 7–10, 2020 | 448 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 41% | 52% | − | – | – |
Electoral slates
These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[35]
| Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party |
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party |
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party |
|---|---|---|
| Darlene Starman (At-large) Steve Nelson (At-large) George Olmer (District 1) Mark Quandahl (District 2) Teresa Ibach (District 3) |
Roger Wess (At-large) Peg Lippert (At-large) Larry Wright (District 1) Precious McKesson (District 2) Kathy Moore Jensen (District 3) |
Ben Backus (At-large) Laura Ebke (At-large) Trevor Reilly (District 1) Margaret Austgen (District 2) Patrick Birkel (District 3) |
Results
As expected, Trump easily carried the state at large. However, because Nebraska (along with Maine) allocates its remaining electoral votes by congressional district, Joe Biden was able to win an electoral vote from Nebraska's second district, which covers the increasingly liberal Omaha metro area. Barack Obama also won the same district in 2008 before it went back to the Republican column in 2012 and 2016.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
556,846 | 58.22% | −0.53% | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
374,583 | 39.17% | +5.47% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
20,283 | 2.12% | −2.49% | |
| Write-in | 4,671 | 0.49% | −1.41% | ||
| Total votes | 956,383 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican win | |||||
By county
| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 10,085 | 68.83% | 4,213 | 28.75% | 355 | 2.42% | 5,872 | 40.08% | 14,653 |
| Antelope | 3,093 | 86.23% | 452 | 12.60% | 42 | 1.17% | 2,641 | 73.63% | 3,587 |
| Arthur | 260 | 91.23% | 21 | 7.37% | 4 | 1.40% | 239 | 83.86% | 285 |
| Banner | 362 | 88.08% | 43 | 10.46% | 6 | 1.46% | 319 | 77.62% | 411 |
| Blaine | 280 | 88.33% | 35 | 11.04% | 2 | 0.63% | 245 | 77.29% | 317 |
| Boone | 2,653 | 82.24% | 499 | 15.47% | 74 | 2.29% | 2,154 | 66.77% | 3,226 |
| Box Butte | 4,002 | 76.96% | 1,051 | 20.21% | 147 | 2.83% | 2,951 | 56.75% | 5,200 |
| Boyd | 1,010 | 87.45% | 135 | 11.69% | 10 | 0.86% | 875 | 75.76% | 1,155 |
| Brown | 1,470 | 87.29% | 191 | 11.34% | 23 | 1.37% | 1,279 | 75.95% | 1,684 |
| Buffalo | 16,640 | 70.18% | 6,350 | 26.78% | 721 | 3.04% | 10,290 | 43.40% | 23,711 |
| Burt | 2,580 | 69.00% | 1,063 | 28.43% | 96 | 2.57% | 1,517 | 40.57% | 3,739 |
| Butler | 3,542 | 78.40% | 873 | 19.32% | 103 | 2.28% | 2,669 | 59.08% | 4,518 |
| Cass | 10,121 | 66.04% | 4,737 | 30.91% | 468 | 3.05% | 5,384 | 35.13% | 15,326 |
| Cedar | 4,174 | 83.23% | 725 | 14.46% | 116 | 2.31% | 3,449 | 68.77% | 5,015 |
| Chase | 1,740 | 87.00% | 226 | 11.30% | 34 | 1.70% | 1,514 | 75.70% | 2,000 |
| Cherry | 2,844 | 87.00% | 373 | 11.41% | 52 | 1.59% | 2,471 | 75.59% | 3,269 |
| Cheyenne | 3,813 | 79.84% | 855 | 17.90% | 108 | 2.26% | 2,958 | 61.94% | 4,776 |
| Clay | 2,848 | 79.78% | 632 | 17.70% | 90 | 2.52% | 2,216 | 62.08% | 3,570 |
| Colfax | 2,636 | 70.75% | 1,025 | 27.51% | 65 | 1.74% | 1,611 | 43.24% | 3,726 |
| Cuming | 3,507 | 78.65% | 870 | 19.51% | 82 | 1.84% | 2,637 | 59.14% | 4,459 |
| Custer | 5,090 | 84.69% | 786 | 13.08% | 134 | 2.23% | 4,304 | 71.61% | 6,010 |
| Dakota | 3,926 | 57.59% | 2,744 | 40.25% | 147 | 2.16% | 1,182 | 17.34% | 6,817 |
| Dawes | 2,931 | 70.61% | 1,082 | 26.07% | 138 | 3.32% | 1,849 | 44.54% | 4,151 |
| Dawson | 6,524 | 70.98% | 2,497 | 27.17% | 170 | 1.85% | 4,027 | 43.81% | 9,191 |
| Deuel | 871 | 84.24% | 141 | 13.64% | 22 | 2.12% | 730 | 70.60% | 1,034 |
| Dixon | 2,335 | 75.47% | 651 | 21.04% | 108 | 3.49% | 1,684 | 54.43% | 3,094 |
| Dodge | 10,984 | 64.85% | 5,544 | 32.73% | 410 | 2.42% | 5,440 | 32.12% | 16,938 |
| Douglas | 119,159 | 43.09% | 150,350 | 54.37% | 7,031 | 2.54% | -31,191 | -11.28% | 276,540 |
| Dundy | 883 | 88.04% | 105 | 10.47% | 15 | 1.49% | 778 | 77.57% | 1,003 |
| Fillmore | 2,359 | 74.94% | 693 | 22.01% | 96 | 3.05% | 1,666 | 52.93% | 3,148 |
| Franklin | 1,437 | 83.16% | 276 | 15.97% | 15 | 0.87% | 1,161 | 67.19% | 1,728 |
| Frontier | 1,229 | 84.99% | 189 | 13.07% | 28 | 1.94% | 1,040 | 71.92% | 1,446 |
| Furnas | 2,163 | 83.13% | 399 | 15.33% | 40 | 1.54% | 1,764 | 67.80% | 2,602 |
| Gage | 7,445 | 66.96% | 3,385 | 30.44% | 289 | 2.60% | 4,060 | 36.52% | 11,119 |
| Garden | 1,016 | 84.67% | 161 | 13.42% | 23 | 1.91% | 855 | 71.25% | 1,200 |
| Garfield | 933 | 86.71% | 133 | 12.36% | 10 | 0.93% | 800 | 74.35% | 1,076 |
| Gosper | 893 | 79.66% | 215 | 19.18% | 13 | 1.16% | 678 | 60.48% | 1,121 |
| Grant | 375 | 93.28% | 20 | 4.98% | 7 | 1.74% | 355 | 88.30% | 402 |
| Greeley | 1,016 | 80.70% | 229 | 18.19% | 14 | 1.11% | 787 | 62.51% | 1,259 |
| Hall | 16,189 | 66.21% | 7,681 | 31.42% | 580 | 2.37% | 8,508 | 34.79% | 24,450 |
| Hamilton | 4,309 | 77.42% | 1,118 | 20.09% | 139 | 2.49% | 3,191 | 57.33% | 5,566 |
| Harlan | 1,615 | 83.51% | 282 | 14.58% | 37 | 1.91% | 1,333 | 68.93% | 1,934 |
| Hayes | 494 | 92.16% | 34 | 6.34% | 8 | 1.50% | 460 | 85.82% | 536 |
| Hitchcock | 1,264 | 85.99% | 185 | 11.90% | 31 | 2.11% | 1,089 | 74.09% | 1,470 |
| Holt | 4,769 | 85.93% | 686 | 12.36% | 95 | 1.71% | 4,083 | 73.57% | 5,550 |
| Hooker | 376 | 85.07% | 59 | 13.35% | 7 | 1.58% | 317 | 71.72% | 442 |
| Howard | 2,786 | 79.35% | 648 | 18.46% | 77 | 2.19% | 2,138 | 60.89% | 3,511 |
| Jefferson | 2,616 | 70.13% | 1,016 | 27.24% | 98 | 2.63% | 1,600 | 42.89% | 3,730 |
| Johnson | 1,518 | 67.98% | 647 | 28.97% | 68 | 3.05% | 871 | 39.01% | 2,233 |
| Kearney | 2,822 | 78.02% | 701 | 19.38% | 94 | 2.60% | 2,121 | 58.64% | 3,617 |
| Keith | 3,544 | 81.12% | 763 | 17.46% | 62 | 1.42% | 2,781 | 63.66% | 4,369 |
| Keya Paha | 476 | 89.81% | 49 | 9.25% | 5 | 0.94% | 427 | 80.56% | 530 |
| Kimball | 1,563 | 83.27% | 268 | 14.28% | 46 | 2.45% | 1,295 | 68.99% | 1,877 |
| Knox | 3,721 | 79.04% | 905 | 19.22% | 82 | 1.74% | 2,816 | 59.82% | 4,708 |
| Lancaster | 70,092 | 44.58% | 82,293 | 52.34% | 4,830 | 3.08% | -12,201 | -7.76% | 157,215 |
| Lincoln | 13,071 | 76.16% | 3,692 | 21.51% | 400 | 2.33% | 9,379 | 54.65% | 17,163 |
| Logan | 407 | 90.44% | 38 | 8.44% | 5 | 1.12% | 369 | 82.00% | 450 |
| Loup | 370 | 81.50% | 75 | 16.52% | 9 | 1.98% | 295 | 64.98% | 454 |
| Madison | 11,940 | 75.48% | 3,478 | 21.99% | 401 | 2.53% | 8,462 | 53.49% | 15,819 |
| McPherson | 275 | 91.06% | 17 | 5.63% | 10 | 3.31% | 258 | 85.43% | 302 |
| Merrick | 3,419 | 79.85% | 743 | 17.35% | 120 | 2.80% | 2,676 | 62.50% | 4,282 |
| Morrill | 2,113 | 82.60% | 386 | 15.09% | 59 | 2.31% | 1,727 | 67.51% | 2,558 |
| Nance | 1,437 | 78.44% | 359 | 19.60% | 36 | 1.96% | 1,078 | 58.84% | 1,832 |
| Nemaha | 2,428 | 70.75% | 921 | 26.84% | 83 | 2.41% | 1,507 | 43.91% | 3,432 |
| Nuckolls | 1,857 | 80.56% | 409 | 17.74% | 39 | 1.70% | 1,448 | 62.82% | 2,305 |
| Otoe | 5,649 | 67.61% | 2,490 | 29.80% | 216 | 2.59% | 3,159 | 37.81% | 8,355 |
| Pawnee | 1,071 | 74.95% | 322 | 22.53% | 36 | 2.52% | 749 | 52.42% | 1,429 |
| Perkins | 1,321 | 85.50% | 199 | 12.88% | 25 | 1.62% | 1,122 | 72.62% | 1,545 |
| Phelps | 4,157 | 82.79% | 752 | 14.98% | 112 | 2.23% | 3,405 | 67.81% | 5,021 |
| Pierce | 3,462 | 86.29% | 480 | 11.96% | 70 | 1.75% | 2,982 | 74.33% | 4,012 |
| Platte | 12,186 | 77.51% | 3,260 | 20.74% | 275 | 1.75% | 8,926 | 56.77% | 15,721 |
| Polk | 2,291 | 79.36% | 530 | 18.36% | 66 | 2.28% | 1,761 | 61.00% | 2,887 |
| Red Willow | 4,525 | 82.72% | 811 | 14.83% | 134 | 2.45% | 3,714 | 67.89% | 5,470 |
| Richardson | 3,073 | 74.33% | 996 | 24.09% | 65 | 1.58% | 2,077 | 50.24% | 4,134 |
| Rock | 744 | 88.36% | 84 | 9.98% | 14 | 1.66% | 660 | 78.38% | 842 |
| Saline | 3,631 | 62.82% | 1,986 | 34.36% | 163 | 2.82% | 1,645 | 28.46% | 5,780 |
| Sarpy | 51,979 | 54.04% | 41,206 | 42.84% | 3,008 | 3.12% | 10,773 | 11.20% | 96,193 |
| Saunders | 9,108 | 71.23% | 3,331 | 26.05% | 347 | 2.72% | 5,777 | 45.18% | 12,786 |
| Scotts Bluff | 10,952 | 70.55% | 4,196 | 27.03% | 376 | 2.42% | 6,756 | 43.52% | 15,524 |
| Seward | 6,490 | 70.55% | 2,438 | 26.50% | 271 | 2.95% | 4,052 | 44.05% | 9,199 |
| Sheridan | 2,292 | 85.39% | 340 | 12.67% | 52 | 1.94% | 1,952 | 72.72% | 2,684 |
| Sherman | 1,322 | 77.76% | 343 | 20.18% | 35 | 2.06% | 979 | 57.58% | 1,700 |
| Sioux | 642 | 87.82% | 72 | 9.85% | 17 | 2.33% | 570 | 77.97% | 731 |
| Stanton | 2,561 | 80.92% | 532 | 16.81% | 72 | 2.27% | 2,029 | 64.11% | 3,165 |
| Thayer | 2,308 | 77.22% | 624 | 20.88% | 57 | 1.90% | 1,684 | 56.34% | 2,989 |
| Thomas | 377 | 88.29% | 45 | 10.54% | 5 | 1.17% | 332 | 77.75% | 427 |
| Thurston | 1,180 | 49.60% | 1,122 | 47.16% | 77 | 3.24% | 58 | 2.44% | 2,379 |
| Valley | 1,901 | 81.10% | 412 | 17.58% | 31 | 1.32% | 1,489 | 63.52% | 2,344 |
| Washington | 8,583 | 68.85% | 3,554 | 28.51% | 330 | 2.64% | 5,029 | 40.34% | 12,467 |
| Wayne | 3,055 | 72.43% | 1,022 | 24.23% | 141 | 3.34% | 2,033 | 48.20% | 4,218 |
| Webster | 1,511 | 80.54% | 335 | 17.86% | 30 | 1.60% | 1,176 | 62.68% | 1,876 |
| Wheeler | 438 | 87.08% | 59 | 11.73% | 6 | 1.19% | 379 | 75.35% | 503 |
| York | 5,337 | 74.53% | 1,630 | 22.76% | 194 | 2.71% | 3,707 | 51.77% | 7,161 |
| Totals | 556,846 | 58.22% | 374,583 | 39.17% | 24,954 | 2.61% | 182,263 | 19.05% | 956,383 |
By congressional district
Trump won 2 of the 3 congressional districts, while Biden won 1 district, which elected a Republican.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 56.0% | 41.1% | Jeff Fortenberry |
| 2nd | 45.5% | 52.0% | Don Bacon |
| 3rd | 75.6% | 22.4% | Adrian Smith |
Analysis
Biden won only the two most populous counties in the state: Douglas County, home to Omaha, by 11 points, approximately the same margin Lyndon B. Johnson won the county within 1964 and the best result for Democrats since that election, and Lancaster County, home to the state's second-largest city and state capital Lincoln, where the University of Nebraska is located, by just under 8 points, another 56-year high for Democrats. While he didn't win the state's third largest, Sarpy County, a growing suburban county to the south of Omaha, which in all presidential elections from 1968 to 2016 except 2008 had backed the Republican candidate by at least 21 points, he reduced Trump's winning margin to only 11 points and won 43 percent of the vote there, again a 56-year best for Democrats. Biden also received more than 40 percent of the vote in two counties in the northeastern corner of the state: Thurston County, of which Trump only won by a plurality of 49.6% and is home to a Native American majority, and Dakota County, located to the north of the former and is home to a large Hispanic population.[37]
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Nebraska came from whites, who constituted 90% of the electorate, and specifically from Protestants with 70%. Post-election, many rural Nebraskans expressed worries about trade and the economy under a Biden presidency,[38] with 59% of voters stating they trusted Trump more to handle international trade.[39] Joe Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's performance in Nebraska, as he did in most other states. Despite his loss, Biden's 374,583 votes are the most received by a Democratic candidate for president statewide in Nebraska, surpassing the previous record set by Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1932 landslide.
Notes
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ "Don't recall" and Would not vote with 0%
- ^ With voters tho lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Undecided, will vote for another candidate or refused to answer" with 5%
- ^ would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%
- ^ a b c Includes "Refused"
- ^ "Other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Other candidate" with 2%
Partisan clients
See also
- United States presidential elections in Nebraska
- Presidency of Joe Biden
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
References
- ^ "Voter Turnout". Nebraska Secretary of State Election Results. November 6, 2020. Retrieved December 1, 2020.
- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ a b "Joe Biden picks up more delegates in Nebraska primary win". CBS News. May 12, 2020.
- ^ "Nebraska Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved May 12, 2020.
- ^ "Official Report of the Nebraska Board of State Canvassers: Primary Election, May 12, 2020" (PDF). Nebraska Board of State Canvassers. June 8, 2020. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2020.
- ^ Winger, Richard (May 23, 2020). "Jo Jorgensen Wins Libertarian Presidential Nomination on Fourth Vote". Ballot Access Date. Retrieved May 24, 2020.
- ^ "Official Report of the Nebraska Board of State Canvassers - Primary Election May 12, 2020" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
- ^ Strategies 360/Kate Bolz
- ^ University of Nevada
- ^ Change Research
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ FM3 Research/Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC
- ^ Siena College/NYT
- ^ a b Global Strategy Group/House Majority PAC
- ^ GQR/Kara Eastman
- ^ DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department/Ally Mutnick
- ^ "Certificate of Ascertainment" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
- ^ "Official Results" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
- ^ Leip, Dave. "2020 Presidential General Election Results - Nebraska". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
- ^ Searcey, Dionne (November 8, 2020). "A Nation Votes for Joe Biden, and a Red State Shrugs". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- ^ "Nebraska Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
Further reading
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Nebraska
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Nebraska", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Nebraska: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Nebraska". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Nebraska at Ballotpedia
