Wikipedia

Opinion polling for the 1990 Serbian general election

In the run-up to the 1990 Serbian general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Serbia. Out of all organisations, the Institute for Political Studies in Belgrade, Institute of Social Sciences and Centre for Political Research, are known that they carried out opinion polling, including one unknown independent firm.[1]: 19  The results of such polls are displayed in this list. The date range for these opinion polls is from the beginning of the election campaign on 28 September to the 1990 election, which was held on 9 December 1990.[2][3]

Analysis

edit

According to a Washington Post report, opinion polls during the 1990 general election campaign were not very reliable, though they did name any polling firms.[4] The Los Angeles Times reported in their election coverage that in opinion polls for the presidential elections, Milošević had a modest lead over Drašković.[5] Academic Vladimir B. Sotirović [sr] noted that after the September opinion poll, the electoral support of SPS vastly increased due to its status as the governing party and due to media control.[6]: 13  The Washington Post reported that, according to one opinion poll, SPO could have received the largest number of seats in the National Assembly.[4] A parliamentary election exit poll showed that DS enjoyed strong support in Belgrade.[7]

The Institute of Social Sciences and Centre for Political Research opinion polls in October and November saw two thirds of all respondents say that they would take part in the 1990 general elections.[1]: 24  According to their analysis, the average respondent who said that they would take part in the elections was either a follower or a member of a political party, a pensioner, an ethnic Serb, a public sector worker, or a high school educated male.[1]: 25  Those who were undecided were identified as the youth, technical workers, unemployed, Yugoslavs, non-Serbs, and independent voters.[1]: 26  While those who rejected taking part in the elections were identified as students, Yugoslavs, and housewives.[1]: 26 

The newspaper of Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO), Srpska reč, published an opinion poll on 20 November, that it also conducted, in which out of 1,500 respondents, 711 favoured SPO and 251 favoured Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) in the parliamentary election. In the same opinion poll, 848 favoured Vuk Drašković, the president of SPO, and 220 favoured Slobodan Milošević, the president of SPS, for the presidential election.[8] Political scientist Zoran Slavujević reported that a similar event occurred with the Novi Sad-based polling firm Scientia, which was led by a DS member and also argued with the Institute for Political Studies in Belgrade.[8]

Graphical summary

edit
 
 
A local regression chart of poll results for the parliamentary and presidential elections from September to 9 December 1990

Poll results

edit

Parliamentary election

edit
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size SPS SPO DS SRSJS Others Lead
1990 election 9 December – 48.1 16.5 7.8 1.5 26.1 31.6
IDN/CPI[9] December 1,400 50.1 17.2 8.1 4.1 20.5[a] 32.9
IPS[10] December ? 36.9 13.5 – – 49.6 23.4
IDN/CPI[11] 23–25 November 1,400 34.6 12.8 4.8 3.4 44.4[b] 21.8
IDN/CPI[12] October 1,400 30.9 8.7 2.3 2.1 56.0[c] 22.2
Unknown independent firm[6]: 13  September ? 26.0 11.0 13.0 – 50.0[d] 13.0

Second round

edit
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size SPS SPO DS SRSJS Others Lead
IDN/CPI[9] December 1,400 22.9 10.3 2.4 1.1 63.3[e] 22.9
IDN/CPI[11] 23–25 November 1,400 40.4 17.5 9.6 7.2 25.3[f] 22.9

Presidential election

edit
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Slobodan Milošević Vuk Drašković Ivan Đurić Vojislav Šešelj Blažo Perović Sulejman Ugljanin Others Lead
1990 election 9 December – 67.7 16.9 5.7 1.9 1.2 2.3 4.3 50.8
IDN/CPI[9] December 1,400 55.4 16.1 9.0 2.1 0.9 0.6 45.4[g] 39.3
IDN/CPI[11] 23–25 November 1,400 44.1 10.5 – – – – 45.4[h] 33.6
IDN/CPI[12] October 1,400 41.5 5.2 – – – – 53.3[i] 36.3

Notes

edit
  1. ^ VMDK/DZVM: 2.0%, ZS: 0.9%, NSS: 0.6%, AA: 0.5%, PVD/PDD: 0.4%, UJDI: 0.4%, SČP: 0.4%, SK–PJ: 0.3%, NRS: 0.2%, SJ: 0.2%, SNO: 0.1%, DSR: 0.1%, DS (D–G): 0.1%, DF: 0.1%, LS: 0.1%, NS: 0.1%, ND–PZS: 0.1%, RPJ: 0.1%, SDPJ: 0.1%, SDS: 0.1%, SDA: 0.1%, SSP: 0.1%, Independents: 9.4%, Did not vote: 4.2%.[9]
  2. ^ ZS: 0.5%, SNO: 0.4%, DSHV: 0.4%, UJDI: 0.4%, VMDK/DZVM: 0.3%, SJ: 0.3%, NSS: 0.2%, ND–PZS: 0.2%, NRS: 0.1%, DSR: 0.1%, DF: 0.1%, HMDSJ: 0.1%, JDHS: 0.1%, NKP: 0.1%, RPJ: 0.1%, SDPJ: 0.1%, SDS: 0.1%, SDA: 0.1%, PZLjP: 0.1%, PNH: 0.1%, SSPS: 0.1%, SČP: 0.1%, VRNRS: 0.1%, Nationalistic party: 0.1%, Undecided: 31.5%, Will not vote: 6.4%, N/A: 2.1%.[11]
  3. ^ NRS: 0.7%, SJ: 0.7%, ZS: 0.6%, SNO: 0.4%, NSS: 0.4%, PVD/PDD: 0.3%, SDS: 0.2%, VMDK/DZVM: 0.1%, DSHV: 0.1%, LS: 0.1%, ND–PZS: 0.1%, NKP: 0.1%, RPJ: 0.1%, SDSS: 0.1%, SDPJ: 0.1%, SSS: 0.1%, SRS: 0.1%, UJDI: 0.1%, SČP: 0.1%, VRNRS: 0.1%, Undecided: 41.6%, Will not vote: 8.4%, N/A: 1.3%.[12]
  4. ^ 45% of respondents did not have a clear opinion.[6]: 13 
  5. ^ UOS: 3.0%, VMDK/DZVM: 1.3%, UJDI: 0.7%, PVD/PDD: 0.4%, SJ: 0.3%, DS (D–G): 0.1%, DF: 0.1%, RPJ: 0.1%, RS: 0.1%, ZS: 0.1%, SK–PJ: 0.1%, No second round: 29.9%, Did not vote: 21.8%, N/A: 5.4%.[9]
  6. ^ Undecided: 18.1%, I would not vote: 6.4%, N/A: 0.7%.[11]
  7. ^ Did not vote: 9.0%, Other: 1.4%.[9]
  8. ^ Bogdan Trifunović (SPS): 1.4%, Dragoljub Mićunović (DS): 1.0%, Ante Marković (SRSJ): 0.6%, Budimir Košutić (SPS): 0.4%, Kosta Čavoški (Independent): 0.1%, Nebojša Popov (UJDI): 0.1%, Stanko Radmilović (SPS): 0.1%, Borisav Jović (SPS): 0.1%, Ratko Marković (SPS): 0.1%, House of Karađorđević (Independent): 0.1%, Dobrica Ćosić (Independent): 0.1%, Brana Crnčević (SPS): 0.1%, Undecided: 33.1%, Will not vote: 6.0%, N/A: 2.3%.[11]
  9. ^ Ante Marković (SRSJ): 0.4%, Dragoljub Mićunović (DS): 0.3%, Nebojša Popov (UJDI): 0.2%, Kosta Čavoški (DS): 0.2%, Aleksandar Bakočević (SPS): 0.1%, Stanko Radmilović (SPS): 0.1%, Undecided: 39.9%, Will not vote: 7.8%, N/A: 4.2%, Will vote for myself: 0.1%.[12]

References

edit
  1. ^ a b c d e Mihailović, Srećko (1990). "Sondaža javnog mnjenja uoči prvih višestranačkih izbora u Srbiji" [Public opinion survey before the first multi-party elections in Serbia]. Sociološki pregled (in Serbian) (1). ISSN 0085-6320.
  2. ^ Sokolović, Zoran (28 September 1990). "Odluka o raspisivanju izbora za predsednika Republike Srbije, odluka o raspisivanju izbora za narodne poslanike u Narodnu skupštinu Republike Srbije i odluka o imenovanju predsednika, sekretara, članova i zamenika članova Republičke izborne komisije" [Decision on calling for elections for the President of the Republic of Serbia, decision on calling for elections for deputies to the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia and decision on appointing the president, secretary, members and deputy members of the Republic Electoral Commission]. Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia (in Serbian). 1: 30. ISSN 0353-8389.
  3. ^ "Prvi višestranački izbori (1990)" [First multi-party elections (1990)]. B92 (in Serbian). 9 March 2020. Retrieved 10 July 2024.
  4. ^ a b Harden, Blaine (9 December 1990). "Elections Today May Determine Yugoslavia's Fate;Two Top Candidates in Serbia Focus on Virulent Nationalism". The Washington Post. pp. A29. ProQuest 307331582. Retrieved 14 July 2024.
  5. ^ Williams, Carol J. (10 December 1990). "Serbian Incumbents Headed for an Election Victory Yugoslavia: Former Communists also appear to have done well in Montenegro". Los Angeles Times. p. 8. ProQuest 281250588. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
  6. ^ a b c Sotirović, Vladislav B. (2010). "The Multiparty Elections in Serbia in 1990". Politikos mokslų almanachas. 1 (6). ISSN 2029-0225.
  7. ^ "Fraud alleged as Serbs hold first free vote in 50 years". Toronto Star. 10 December 1990. pp. A12. ProQuest 436315015. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
  8. ^ a b Orlović, Slaviša (2011). Partije i izbori u Srbiji: 20 godina [Parties and elections in Serbia: 20 years] (in Serbian) (1 ed.). Belgrade: Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Faculty of Political Sciences, Centre for Democracy. p. 288. ISBN 9788684031497. OCLC 785849369.
  9. ^ a b c d e f Klingemann, Hans-Dieter; Ljiljana, Baćević (1997). "Izborna Studija, Srbija 1990 (3. talas)" [Election Study Serbia 1990 (3rd Wave)]. GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences. doi:10.4232/1.2903. Retrieved 20 July 2024.
  10. ^ "Istraživanja: SPS i Milošević" [Research: SPS and Milošević]. Politika ekspres (in Serbian). No. 9606. 5 December 1990. p. 1. ISSN 0032-3381.
  11. ^ a b c d e f Klingemann, Hans-Dieter; Ljiljana, Baćević (1997). "Izborna Studija, Srbija 1990 (2. talas)" [Election Study Serbia 1990 (2nd Wave)]. GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences. doi:10.4232/1.2902. Retrieved 20 July 2024.
  12. ^ a b c d Klingemann, Hans-Dieter; Ljiljana, Baćević (1997). "Izborna Studija, Srbija 1990 (1. talas)" [Election Study Serbia 1990 (1st Wave)]. GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences. doi:10.4232/1.2901. Retrieved 20 July 2024.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_for_the_1990_Serbian_general_election&oldid=1237425115"