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2024 United States presidential election in Maryland

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election in Maryland took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Maryland voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

2024 United States presidential election in Maryland
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout72.84%[1] Decrease 1.79 pp
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,902,577 1,035,550
Percentage 62.62% 34.08%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Due to the progressive and culturally Northeastern influence of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area—home to the majority of Maryland's population and most of Maryland's significant African American population—Democrats have consistently won Maryland's electoral votes by double-digit margins since 1992. While regions like Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore remain rural, conservative, culturally Southern, and predominantly white, their impact is outweighed by the state's urban centers. In 2020, Joe Biden from neighboring Delaware won Maryland by 33 points. Maryland was widely expected to remain a safe blue state in 2024.[3]

Harris comfortably won the state by about 28.5%, but by a margin 4 points lower than Joe Biden. Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee to surpass one million votes in Maryland since George W. Bush in 2004. Larry Hogan, who was concurrently running for the U.S. Senate, ran 17 points ahead of Trump.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2024 Maryland Democratic presidential primary

The Maryland Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024,[4] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

Maryland Democratic primary, May 14, 2024[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 591,523 87.1% 95 95
Uncommitted 66,168 9.8%
Marianne Williamson 12,935 1.9%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 8,188 1.2%
Total: 678,814 100.0% 95 23 118

Republican primary

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Main article: 2024 Maryland Republican presidential primary

The Maryland Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024,[4] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

Maryland Republican primary, May 14, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 205,996 77.7% 37 0 37
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 56,506 21.3% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 2,607 1.0% 0 0 0
Total: 265,109 100.0% 37 0 37

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[6] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[7] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] Safe D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[10] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[11] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[12] Safe D June 12, 2024
538[13] Solid D June 11, 2024
RCP[14] Solid D June 26, 2024
NBC News[15] Safe D October 6, 2024

Polling

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Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Morning Consult[16] October 22–31, 2024 490 (LV) ± 5.0% 64% 31% 5%
ActiVote[17] October 6–30, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 64% 37% –
Braun Research[18][A] October 17–22, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.6% 61% 33% 7%[b]
1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 59% 34% 7%[c]
Emerson College[19] October 19–21, 2024 865 (LV) ± 3.2% 64% 34% 2%
63% 33% 4%[d]
Morning Consult[16] October 10–15, 2024 490 (LV) ± 4.0% 64% 31% 4%
ActiVote[20] September 8 – October 14, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 63% 37% –
Braun Research[21][A] September 19–23, 2024 1,012 (LV) ± 3.5% 64% 32% 5%[e]
1,012 (RV) ± 3.5% 62% 32% 6%[f]
Morning Consult[16] September 9–18, 2024 516 (LV) ± 4.0% 61% 33% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[22] September 16–17, 2024 543 (RV) ± 4.2% 64% 33% 3%
Emerson College[23] September 12–13, 2024 890 (LV) ± 3.2% 65% 33% 2%
63% 32% 5%
Morning Consult[16] August 30 – September 8, 2024 516 (LV) ± 4.0% 62% 34% 4%
Gonzales Research[24] August 24–30, 2024 820 (RV) ± 3.5% 56% 35% 10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[25][B] August 14–20, 2024 700 (LV) ± 4.0% 64% 32% 4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Undecided
Chism Strategies[26] October 28–30, 2024 510 (LV) ± 4.34% 56% 33% 0% 0% 1% 10%[g]
YouGov[27][h] October 23–27, 2024 500 (LV) ± 5.2% 61% 34% – 0% 2% 5%
University of Maryland, Baltimore County[28] September 23–28, 2024 863 (LV) ± 3.3% 57% 35% 2% 0% 1% 5%[i]
Braun Research[21][A] September 19–23, 2024 1,012 (LV) ± 3.5% 63% 31% – 1% 1% 5%[j]
1,012 (RV) ± 3.5% 61% 31% – 1% 1% 6%[k]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[25][B] August 14–20, 2024 700 (LV) ± 4.0% 59% 29% 5% 1% 1% 5%
Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[29] June 19–20, 2024 635 (V) ± 3.9% 56% 30% 15%
Emerson College[30] May 6–8, 2024 1,115 (RV) ± 2.9% 56% 35% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[31][C] May 6–7, 2024 719 (V) ± 3.7% 60% 32% 8%
Emerson College[32] February 12–13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 55% 32% 13%
Gonzales Research[33] January 23 – February 2, 2024 815 (RV) ± 3.5% 53% 32% 15%
Gonzales Research[34] September 18–28, 2023 818 (LV) ± 3.5% 56% 30% 13%
Gonzales Research[35] May 30 – June 6, 2023 841 (RV) ± 3.5% 52% 35% 13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[30] May 6–8, 2024 1,115 (RV) ± 2.9% 50% 33% 6% 4% 1% 6%
Emerson College[32] February 12−13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 32% 6% 1% 1% 13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Gonzales Research[33] January 23 – February 2, 2024 815 (RV) ± 3.5% 45% 28% 18% 9%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Gonzales Research[33] January 23 – February 2, 2024 815 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 36% 14%
Gonzales Research[34] September 18–28, 2023 818 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 36% 11%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Gonzales Research[34] September 18–28, 2023 818 (LV) ± 3.5% 56% 35% 9%
Gonzales Research[35] May 30 – June 6, 2023 841 (RV) ± 3.5% 51% 37% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Vivek
Ramaswamy
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Gonzales Research[34] September 18–28, 2023 818 (LV) ± 3.5% 56% 29% 15%

Results

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2024 United States presidential election in Maryland[36][37]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
1,902,577 62.62% −2.74%
Republican
1,035,550 34.08% +1.93%
Green
33,134 1.09% +0.57%
Independent
28,819 0.95% N/A
Libertarian
15,570 0.51% −0.59%
Write-in 22,684 0.75% +0.08%
Total votes 3,038,334 100.00%

By county

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County Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Allegany 9,231 28.72% 22,141 68.90% 765 2.38% -12,910 -40.18% 32,137
Anne Arundel 171,945 55.19% 128,892 41.37% 10,735 3.45% 43,053 13.82% 311,572
Baltimore 249,958 60.53% 149,560 36.22% 13,397 3.24% 100,398 24.31% 412,915
Baltimore City 195,109 84.55% 27,984 12.13% 7,661 3.32% 167,125 72.42% 230,754
Calvert 23,438 43.25% 29,361 54.18% 1,392 2.57% -5,923 -10.93% 54,191
Caroline 4,860 29.76% 11,053 67.69% 417 2.55% -6,193 -37.93% 16,330
Carroll 36,867 35.91% 62,273 60.66% 3,511 3.42% -25,406 -24.75% 102,651
Cecil 17,628 33.37% 33,871 64.11% 1,332 2.52% -16,243 -30.74% 52,831
Charles 63,454 68.90% 26,145 28.39% 2,498 2.71% 37,309 40.51% 92,097
Dorchester 6,954 41.46% 9,390 55.99% 428 2.55% -2,436 -14.53% 16,772
Frederick 82,409 52.79% 68,753 44.04% 4,952 3.17% 13,656 8.75% 156,114
Garrett 3,456 21.82% 11,983 75.66% 399 2.52% -8,527 -53.84% 15,838
Harford 62,453 41.61% 83,050 55.33% 4,587 3.06% -20,597 -13.72% 150,090
Howard 124,764 68.44% 49,425 27.11% 8,102 4.44% 75,339 41.33% 182,291
Kent 5,251 47.19% 5,561 49.97% 316 2.84% -310 -2.78% 11,128
Montgomery 386,581 74.45% 112,637 21.69% 20,003 3.85% 273,944 52.76% 519,221
Prince George's 347,038 85.90% 45,008 11.14% 11,963 2.96% 302,030 74.76% 404,009
Queen Anne's 11,273 34.85% 20,200 62.45% 874 2.70% -8,927 -27.60% 32,347
St. Mary's 23,531 39.91% 33,582 56.96% 1,841 3.12% -10,051 -17.05% 58,954
Somerset 4,054 39.99% 5,805 57.27% 278 2.74% -1,751 -17.28% 10,137
Talbot 11,119 48.70% 11,125 48.73% 586 2.57% -6 -0.03% 22,830
Washington 27,260 37.17% 44,054 60.07% 2,018 2.75% -16,794 -22.90% 73,332
Wicomico 21,513 45.86% 24,065 51.30% 1,334 2.84% -2,552 -5.44% 46,912
Worcester 12,431 37.81% 19,632 59.71% 818 2.49% -7,201 -21.90% 32,881
Totals 1,902,577 62.62% 1,035,550 34.08% 100,207 3.30% 867,027 28.54% 3,038,334


Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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Harris won 7 of 8 congressional districts.[38]

District Harris Trump Representative
1st 40.17% 56.99% Andy Harris
2nd 57.48% 39.17% Dutch Ruppersberger (118th Congress)
Johnny Olszewski (119th Congress)
3rd 59.84% 36.30% John Sarbanes (118th Congress)
Sarah Elfreth (119th Congress)
4th 85.00% 11.77% Glenn Ivey
5th 65.11% 32.03% Steny Hoyer
6th 51.25% 45.51% David Trone (118th Congress)
April McClain-Delaney (119th Congress)
7th 77.68% 19.12% Kweisi Mfume
8th 76.01% 20.17% Jamie Raskin

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
  3. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Undecided" with 2%
  5. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
  6. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by the University of Maryland, College Park.
  9. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  10. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
  11. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland, College Park
  2. ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
  3. ^ This poll was commissioned by EMILY's List, which supports Biden.

References

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  1. ^ "Official 2024 Presidential General Election turnout" (PDF). Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
  2. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  3. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  4. ^ a b "Legislation - HB0535". Maryland General Assembly. Archived from the original on April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
  5. ^ "Maryland Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. May 21, 2024. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  12. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  13. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  15. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  16. ^ a b c d Morning Consult
  17. ^ ActiVote
  18. ^ Braun Research
  19. ^ Emerson College
  20. ^ ActiVote
  21. ^ a b Braun Research
  22. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  23. ^ Emerson College
  24. ^ Gonzales Research
  25. ^ a b Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
  26. ^ Chism Strategies
  27. ^ YouGov
  28. ^ University of Maryland, Baltimore County
  29. ^ "Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 11". Public Policy Polling. June 24, 2024.
  30. ^ a b Mumford, Camille (May 9, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Alsobrooks 42%, Trone 41%". Emerson Polling.
  31. ^ "Public Policy Polling (D)" (PDF).
  32. ^ a b Mumford, Camille (February 15, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Former Gov. Larry Hogan Starts Strong in Election for Open Senate Seat". Emerson Polling.
  33. ^ a b c "Gonzales Research" (PDF).
  34. ^ a b c d "Gonzales Research" (PDF).
  35. ^ a b Sears, Bryan P. (June 14, 2023). "Poll: Biden's independent voter trouble and a hypothetical contest against Wes Moore".
  36. ^ "Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results for President and Vice President of the United States". elections.maryland.gov. Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  37. ^ "Data Files for the 2024 Presidential Election Results". elections.maryland.gov. Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
  38. ^ "Maryland State Board of Elections".
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