The 2016 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary was held on Tuesday March 1, as one of the Republican Party's 2016 presidential primaries. Massachusetts was one of eleven states that held both their Democratic and Republican presidential primaries on that day, dubbed "Super Tuesday". 42 delegates were allocated proportionally to all candidates who received at least 5 percent of the vote in the primary.
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State of the Campaign
editDonald Trump won the Massachusetts primary comfortably, in keeping with polls that had shown him with double-digit leads over his primary rivals in the state. Trump's victory also reflected his relative strength among Republicans in the Northeastern United States.[1] Trump received about 49% of the vote statewide. John Kasich and Marco Rubio came in second and third, respectively, each with about 18% of the vote. Ted Cruz came in fourth with just under 10% of the vote. Of the state's 42 delegates, Trump received 22 of them, Kasich and Rubio each received eight, and Cruz received four.[2][3]
Donald Trump enjoyed the endorsement of former Senator Scott Brown, who stumped for him in Massachusetts and New Hampshire ahead of the primary.[4]
Endorsements
edit- Newspapers
- The Boston Globe[5]
- Daily Hampshire Gazette (Northampton)[6]
- Scott Brown, former U.S. Senator
Polling
editAggregate polls
edit| Source of poll
aggregation |
Dates
administered |
Dates
updated |
Marco Rubio Republican |
Donald Trump Republican |
Ted Cruz Republican |
John Kasich Republican |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | until March 1, 2016 | March 1, 2016 | 18.5% | 45.3% | 11.0% | 15.3% | Trump +26.8 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until March 1, 2016 | March 1, 2016 | 19.2% | 50.0% | 9.9% | 15.6% | Trump +30.8 |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary results | March 1, 2016 | Donald Trump48.99% | John Kasich17.94% | Marco Rubio17.75% | Ted Cruz 9.50%, Ben Carson 2.57%, Jeb Bush 1.03%, Chris Christie 0.30%, Rand Paul 0.29%, Carly Fiorina 0.18%, Jim Gilmore 0.12%, Mike Huckabee 0.11%, Mike Huckabee 0.08%, George Pataki 0.08%, Rick Santorum 0.05% |
| Emerson College[7]
Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 408 |
February 26–28, 2016 | Donald Trump 51% |
Marco Rubio
20% |
John Kasich
14% |
Ted Cruz 10%, Ben Carson 1%, Undecided 1% |
| UMass Amherst/WBZ[8]
Margin of error: ± 6.3% Sample size: 292 |
February 24–26, 2016 | Donald Trump 47% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
Ted Cruz
15% |
John Kasich 11%, Ben Carson 2%, Other 7%, Don't Know 3% |
| Suffolk University[9]
Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500 |
February 24–26, 2016 | Donald Trump 42.6% |
Marco Rubio
19.8% |
John Kasich
17% |
Ted Cruz 8.8%, Ben Carson 3.8%, Other 1%, Don't Know 7% |
| MassINC/WBUR[10]
Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 386 |
February 21–23, 2016 | Donald Trump 39% |
Marco Rubio
18% |
John Kasich
17% |
Ted Cruz 9%, Ben Carson 5%, Don't Know 12% |
| Emerson College[11]
Margin of error: ± 5.7% Sample size: 289 |
February 19–21, 2016 | Donald Trump 50% |
Marco Rubio
16% |
John Kasich
13% |
Ted Cruz 10%, Ben Carson 2% |
| Suffolk University
Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 134 |
November 19–22, 2015 | Donald Trump 32% |
Marco Rubio
18% |
Ted Cruz 10% | Jeb Bush 7%, Ben Carson 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Chris Christie 4%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 14% |
| Emerson College
Margin of error: ± 5.9% Sample size: 271 |
October 16–18, 2015 | Donald Trump 47.8% |
Ben Carson
13.9% |
Marco Rubio
11.8% |
Jeb Bush 7.1%, Carly Fiorina 6.5%, Ted Cruz 5.1%, John Kasich 2.8%, Chris Christie 2.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.9%, Mike Huckabee 0.4%, Rand Paul 0.1%, Undecided 1.4% |
| Emerson College
Margin of error: ± ? Sample size: 216 |
March 14–19, 2015 | Jeb Bush 19% |
Scott Walker 19% |
Ben Carson
13% |
Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Other/Undecided 28% |
| Suffolk University Archived 2014-08-26 at the Wayback Machine
Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400 |
August 21–24, 2014 | Chris Christie 11% |
Paul Ryan 11% |
Jeb Bush 10.75% |
Rand Paul 10.5%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Scott Walker 6.75%, Marco Rubio 5.75%, Rick Perry 4.75%, Ted Cruz 4.25%, Bobby Jindal 3.5%, Rick Santorum 2.75%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.75%, John Kasich 1%, Undecided 18.25%, Other 0.5%, Refused 0.5% |
| Mitt Romney 48.62% |
Chris Christie
7.69% |
Paul Ryan
5.54% |
Jeb Bush 5.23%, Ted Cruz 3.69%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 3.38%, Bobby Jindal 3.38%, Rand Paul 3.38%, Scott Walker 3.38%, Mike Huckabee 3.08%, Marco Rubio 2.77%, Rick Perry 1.54%, John Kasich 1.23%, Rick Santorum 1.23%, Undecided 4.92%, Refused 0.92% |
Analysis
editMassachusetts was Trump's best Super Tuesday state. According to exit polls by Edison Research, Trump's base were white non-college voters, whom he swept with 63% of the vote in a five-way contest.[12]
According to Pew Research, Massachusetts has the lowest percentage of Evangelicals of any Super Tuesday contest, but the highest percentage of Catholics.[13]
Aside from a few Kasich-voting towns in the Boston Metro, Trump swept every town in the state.
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ Nelson, Libby (March 1, 2016). "Donald Trump wins Massachusetts Republican primary". Vox. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
- ^ "Massachusetts Primary Election Results 2016". The New York Times. September 29, 2016. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
- ^ Thadani, Trisha (March 1, 2016). "Massachusetts gives Trump biggest Super Tuesday win; Clinton edges Sanders". USA Today. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
- ^ Strauss, Daniel. "Scott Brown to endorse Donald Trump". POLITICO. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
- ^ "Republicans should vote for John Kasich in N.H." The Boston Globe. January 25, 2016.
- ^ "Our endorsement in GOP primary contest: Gov. John Kasich". Retrieved February 25, 2016.
- ^ "EMERSON POLL: CRUZ CLINGS TO NARROW LEAD IN TEXAS; TRUMP ROMPS IN BAY STATE, CLINTON PULLS AWAY FROM SANDERS" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
- ^ "UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Likely Primary Voters" (PDF). YouGov. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
- ^ "FINAL FEBRUARY MASS. GOP LIKELY VOTERS" (PDF). Suffolk University. Retrieved February 28, 2016.
- ^ "WBUR Poll: In Mass., Clinton Edges Sanders, While Trump Leads Big". WBUR. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
- ^ "EMERSON POLL: IN MASSACHUSETTS CLINTON, SANDERS IN A DEAD HEAT; TRUMP TROUNCES ALL GOP RIVALS" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved February 22, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 11, 2022.
- ^ Lipka, Michael. "A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states". Pew Research Center. Retrieved June 11, 2022.
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