Visibility is a simple indicator of air quality, and its drastic decrease is often related to poo... more Visibility is a simple indicator of air quality, and its drastic decrease is often related to poor air quality resulting from an increase in aerosol (particulate matter PM) concentration. Visibility is also related to water vapor due to the hygroscopicity of aerosols. As a result, water vapor may considerably influence PM measurements especially in the case of low-cost PM sensors which typically measure the ambient (wet) size of PM. Several possibilities are available to eliminate the effect of aerosol hygroscopicity on PM10 measurements, and we aimed to discuss and compare three of the methods: gravimetry (mass change of aerosol filters due to RH variation), application of the AIM model (based on aerosol chemical composition) and estimation derived from visibility data. In this work, we discuss how hygroscopic growth factors, obtained from different methods, are related, as well as the relevance of the hygroscopic growth rate derived from visibility observations in PM10 measurements. Moreover, since in PM monitoringincluding the low-cost PM sensorsa quasi-real time, appropriate and simple method would be desirable for consideration of aerosol hygroscopicity, we aimed to construct a proxy for this purpose. We found that the visibility-derived mass growth rate could serve as a simple basis for these requirements. aerosol concentration control changes in dry extinction/visibility (e.g., Jung et al., 2009; Cheng et al., 2011). The dependence of visibility on water vapor is due to the hygroscopicity of the aerosol particles. Because of hygroscopic growth, the scattering of the particles increases significantly at high relative humidity (RH) levels (Chen et al., 2019;
Air pollution can severely affect the health of citizens living in urban environment. Monitoring ... more Air pollution can severely affect the health of citizens living in urban environment. Monitoring and assessment of air pollution by applying appropriate modeling tools are essential to provide information on air quality to the public. Several air quality forecast and information systems exist in Europe calculating present and predicted concentrations and potential exceedances using a combination of weather forecasting and chemical composition simulations. This paper presents an air quality prediction model system for the area of Budapest. The forecasting modeling system recently consists of a version of the WRF meteorological model and the CHIMERE chemistry transport model. The model system calculates the PM10, NO2, SO2 and O3 concentration values for the city area with 1-h temporal resolution. In this work we present the results of the validation of the prediction system. In the evaluation work, the PM10, NO2 and O3 data detected by the air quality monitoring network of Budapest, as well as the forecasted air pollutant concentration values of the air quality prediction model system are used.
Although small rural settlements are only minor individual sources of greenhouse gases and air po... more Although small rural settlements are only minor individual sources of greenhouse gases and air pollution, their high overall occurrence can significantly contribute to the total emissions of a region or country. Emissions from a rural lifestyle may be remarkably different than those of urban and industrialized regions, but nevertheless they have hardly been studied so far. Here, flux measurements at a tall-tower eddy covariance monitoring site and the footprint model FFP are used to determine the real-world wintertime CO, N 2 O, and CO 2 emissions of a small village in western Hungary. The recorded emission densities, dominantly resulting from residential heating, are 3.5, 0.043, and 72 µg m −2 s −1 for CO, N 2 O, and CO 2 , respectively. While the measured CO and CO 2 emissions are comparable to those calculated using the assumed energy consumption and applying the according emission factors, the nitrous oxide emissions exceed the expected value by a magnitude. This may indicate that the nitrous oxide emissions are significantly underestimated in the emission inventories, and modifications in the methodology of emission calculations are necessary. Using a three-dimensional forward transport model, we further show that, in contrast to the flux measurements, the concentration measurements at the regional background monitoring site are only insignificantly influenced by the emissions of the nearby village.
ATMO_PLAN-egy levegőminőség-tervezési alkalmazás Összefoglalás: A légszennyezés nemcsak helyi szi... more ATMO_PLAN-egy levegőminőség-tervezési alkalmazás Összefoglalás: A légszennyezés nemcsak helyi szintű, hanem egész Európát és a Földet érintő probléma. A levegőszennyezéséhez az ipari folyamatok, a közlekedés, a lakossági tüzelés, valamint a mezőgazdaság is egyaránt hozzájárul. A szennyezőanyagok koncentrációja térben és időben is nagy változékonyságot mutat, de jellemzően a forrásokhoz közel alakulnak ki magas koncentrációk. A városi környezetben a PM, az NO 2 és az O 3 koncentrációinak emelkedése okoz legtöbbször gondot. A légkör állapotáról a mérések biztosítják a legpontosabb információt. A monitoring állomások mérései azonban csak adott helyszínre és időpontra vonatkoznak. Olyan esetben, amikor a monitoring állomásoktól távoli területek levegőminőségét kell értékelni, egyedül a számítógépes modellek jelentik a megoldást. A levegőminőségi modellek olyan számítógépes szoftverek, amelyek matematikai eszközöket használnak, hogy azokat a fizikai és kémiai folyamatokat szimulálják, amelyek a szennyezőanyagok koncentrációinak kialakulásáért felelnek. A modell segítségével valójában a források és a kialakult levegőminőség közötti kapcsolatot határozhatjuk meg. A levegőminőség vizsgálatára alkalmas modelleket használhatjuk az aktuális, vagy egy múltbéli, magas szenynyeződéssel járó levegőminőségi helyzetek értékelésére, segítségükkel a szennyezőanyagok koncentrációja előrejelezhető, valamint közreműködésükkel a szennyezőanyagok bizonyos mértékű kibocsátását célzó intézkedéseknek a levegőminőség javulására gyakorolt hatását is lehet számszerűsíteni. Az előadásban egy olyan levegőminőség tervezését támogató online alkalmazást mutatunk be, amely a HungAIRy LIFE integrált projekt keretein belül került kifejlesztésre, és amely 10 magyarországi város ökömenedzsereinek munkáját fogja a közeljövőben megkönnyíteni.
Concentrations of 222 Rn at 0.1 m and 6.5 m height above ground level and 222 Rn flux density wer... more Concentrations of 222 Rn at 0.1 m and 6.5 m height above ground level and 222 Rn flux density were measured during nights characterized by strong cooling, light winds and clear sky conditions in the Carpathian Basin in Hungary. A very stable boundary layer (vSBL) formed on 14 nights between 15 August and 3 September 2009. On 12 nights, an estimated 72% (s.d. 20%) of 222 Rn emitted from the surface since sunset was retained within the lowest 6.5 m above the ground until sunrise the following morning. On two nights an intermittent increase in wind speed at 9.4 m height was followed by a rise in temperature at 2.0 m height, indicating a larger atmospheric motion that resulted in 222 Rn at 0.1 m around sunrise being the same as around the preceding sunset. It does not seem to be rare in a large continental basin for a vSBL to be nearly completely decoupled from the atmosphere above for the entire period from sunset to sunrise.
Ground-level or tropospheric ozone (O 3) is an oxidant air pollutant that has harmful effect on h... more Ground-level or tropospheric ozone (O 3) is an oxidant air pollutant that has harmful effect on human health and vegetation, however, it is a short-lived greenhouse gas. Ozone is a secondary pollutant; which means that it is not directly emitted in the ambient air, but also produced from the photochemical oxidation of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), methane (CH 4), or carbon monoxide (CO) in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NO x). It is destroyed both photochemically and through deposition to the surface. Summarizing the chemistry of ozone is complex and non-linear. Background concentrations of ground-level ozone in Europe do not show a significant downward trend, but in Hungary essential reduction (-0.28 μg/m 3) was observed at K-puszta station in the last decades. In the monthly distribution the amplitude decrease with increase in altitude, at K-puszta 45.1 μg/m 3 , while at Nyírjes 36.6 μg/m 3 amplitudes were observed. Based on our data we found that the ozone gradient is about +1.4 μg/m 3 /m. Breathing ozone can result in a number of negative health effects that are observed in relevant segments of the population. Ozone also is known as the air pollutant most damaging to agricultural crops and other plants. This article gives a general overview of the ozone problem focusing on the Hungarian specialties.
ʊThe precise knowledge of the beginning and the end of the growing season is necessary for the ca... more ʊThe precise knowledge of the beginning and the end of the growing season is necessary for the calculation of climatic indicators with evident effect on grapevine production. The aim of this study is to develop suitable methods on the basis of thermal conditions that can be used for calculation of the beginning, the end, and the length of the growing season for every single year. The two most accurate methods ('5mid' and 'int') are selected using the root-mean-square error compared to the reference growing season values based on averaging the daily mean temperature for several decades. In case of the '5mid' method, the beginning (or the end) is the middle day of the first (or last) 5-day period with temperature not less than 10 °C. In case of the 'int' method, the beginning (or the end) of the growing season is the day after March 15 (or September 15), when the smoothed series of daily temperature using the monthly average temperatures of March and April (or September and October) exceeds 10 °C (or falls below 10 °C). As a next step, several climatic indicators (e.g., Huglin index and hydrothermal coefficient) are calculated for Hungary for three time periods (1961í1990, 2021í2050, and 2071í2100*) using the '5mid' and 'int' methods. For this purpose, the bias-corrected daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and daily precipitation outputs of three different regional climate models (RegCM, ALADIN, and PRECIS) are used. Extreme temperature and precipitation 218 indices are also evaluated as they determine the risk of grapevine production. The spatial distributions of the indicators are presented on maps. We compare the indicators for the past and for the future using one-way completely randomized robust ANOVA (analysis of variance). Results suggest that changes of temperature conditions in the 21st century will favor the production of red grapevine and late-ripening cultivars. Furthermore, drought seasons will be longer and extreme high summer temperatures will become more frequent, which are clearly considered as high risk factors in grapevine production. Besides the negative effects, the risk of winter frost damage is expected to decrease, which is evidently a favorable change in terms of grapevine production.
This paper presents a Eulerian dispersion model - MEDIA - which was adapted at the Hungarian Mete... more This paper presents a Eulerian dispersion model - MEDIA - which was adapted at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Its aim is to provide forecasts for the dispersion of pollution in case of accidental release of potentially dangerous materials into the atmosphere. The model is part of the emergency response system of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, which can be operated on request. The model can be used in real time mode. The model calculates air concentration fields at 10 different sigma layers, and deposition field (dry plus wet) for 24/36/48 hours depending on the forecasting time of the driving numerical weather prediction model. Forecasted data used are gained from two different numerical weather prediction models: the ECMWF and the ALADIN/LACE. In this paper we compare the concentration and deposition fields in case of ECMWF and ALADIN/LACE, and present some new results which provide the decision makers with some new information on the time evolution of the polluted material. An interesting weather situation was selected to present our results. The influence of dry and wet deposition was examined separately. For the covering abstract see ITRD E122175.
ATMO_PLAN-egy levegőminőség-tervezési alkalmazás Összefoglalás: A légszennyezés nemcsak helyi szi... more ATMO_PLAN-egy levegőminőség-tervezési alkalmazás Összefoglalás: A légszennyezés nemcsak helyi szintű, hanem egész Európát és a Földet érintő probléma. A levegőszennyezéséhez az ipari folyamatok, a közlekedés, a lakossági tüzelés, valamint a mezőgazdaság is egyaránt hozzájárul. A szennyezőanyagok koncentrációja térben és időben is nagy változékonyságot mutat, de jellemzően a forrásokhoz közel alakulnak ki magas koncentrációk. A városi környezetben a PM, az NO 2 és az O 3 koncentrációinak emelkedése okoz legtöbbször gondot. A légkör állapotáról a mérések biztosítják a legpontosabb információt. A monitoring állomások mérései azonban csak adott helyszínre és időpontra vonatkoznak. Olyan esetben, amikor a monitoring állomásoktól távoli területek levegőminőségét kell értékelni, egyedül a számítógépes modellek jelentik a megoldást. A levegőminőségi modellek olyan számítógépes szoftverek, amelyek matematikai eszközöket használnak, hogy azokat a fizikai és kémiai folyamatokat szimulálják, amelyek a szennyezőanyagok koncentrációinak kialakulásáért felelnek. A modell segítségével valójában a források és a kialakult levegőminőség közötti kapcsolatot határozhatjuk meg. A levegőminőség vizsgálatára alkalmas modelleket használhatjuk az aktuális, vagy egy múltbéli, magas szenynyeződéssel járó levegőminőségi helyzetek értékelésére, segítségükkel a szennyezőanyagok koncentrációja előrejelezhető, valamint közreműködésükkel a szennyezőanyagok bizonyos mértékű kibocsátását célzó intézkedéseknek a levegőminőség javulására gyakorolt hatását is lehet számszerűsíteni. Az előadásban egy olyan levegőminőség tervezését támogató online alkalmazást mutatunk be, amely a HungAIRy LIFE integrált projekt keretein belül került kifejlesztésre, és amely 10 magyarországi város ökömenedzsereinek munkáját fogja a közeljövőben megkönnyíteni.
This paper presents a Eulerian dispersion model - MEDIA - which was adapted at the Hungarian Mete... more This paper presents a Eulerian dispersion model - MEDIA - which was adapted at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Its aim is to provide forecasts for the dispersion of pollution in case of accidental release of potentially dangerous materials into the atmosphere. The model is part of the emergency response system of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, which can be operated on request. The model can be used in real time mode. The model calculates air concentration fields at 10 different sigma layers, and deposition field (dry plus wet) for 24/36/48 hours depending on the forecasting time of the driving numerical weather prediction model. Forecasted data used are gained from two different numerical weather prediction models: the ECMWF and the ALADIN/LACE. In this paper we compare the concentration and deposition fields in case of ECMWF and ALADIN/LACE, and present some new results which provide the decision makers with some new information on the time evolution of the polluted ma...
This paper presents an application of the EDMS dispersion modelling system to airport air quality... more This paper presents an application of the EDMS dispersion modelling system to airport air quality calculations. The EDMS system is a combined emissions and dispersion model which can be used to produce an inventory of emissions generated at Budapest Ferihegy Airport, as well as to calculate pollutant concentrations on and around the airport. Daily average NO X concentration values are predicted for 24 hours, and these forecasted values are evaluated with the concentration values measured at the air pollution monitoring stations on the area of Budapest Ferihegy Airport.
⎯ An operational air quality forecasting model system has been developed and provides daily forec... more ⎯ An operational air quality forecasting model system has been developed and provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for the area of Hungary and three big cites of the country (Budapest, Miskolc, and Pécs). The core of the model system is the CHIMERE off-line chemical transport model. The AROME numerical weather prediction model provides the gridded meteorological inputs for the chemical model calculations. The horizontal resolution of the AROME meteorological fields is consistent with the CHIMERE horizontal resolution. The individual forecasted concentrations for the following 2 days are displayed on a public website of the Hungarian Meteorological Service. It is essential to have a quantitative understanding of the uncertainty in model output arising from uncertainties in the input meteorological fields. The main aim of this research is to probe the response of an air quality model to its uncertain meteorological inputs. Ensembles are one method to explore how uncertainty in meteorology affects air pollution concentrations. During the past decades, meteorological ensemble modeling has received extensive research and operational interest because of its ability to better characterize forecast uncertainty. One such ensemble forecast system is the one of the AROME model, which has an 11-member ensemble where each member is perturbed by initial and lateral boundary conditions. In this work we focus on wintertime particulate matter concentrations, since this pollutant is extremely sensitive to near-surface mixing processes. Selecting a number of extreme air pollution situations we will show what the impact of the meteorological uncertainty is on the simulated concentration fields using AROME ensemble members.
Although small rural settlements are only minor individual sources of greenhouse gases and air po... more Although small rural settlements are only minor individual sources of greenhouse gases and air pollution, their high overall quantity can significantly contribute to the total emissions of a region or country. The emissions of the rural lifestyle may be remarkably different from that of the urban and industrialized regions, but nevertheless they have been hardly studied so far. In this study, flux measurements at a tall-tower 20 eddy covariance monitoring site and the footprint model FFP are used to determine the real-world wintertime CO, N2O, and CO2 emissions of a small village in western Hungary. The recorded emission densities, dominantly derived from residential heating, are 3.5 µg m-2 s-1 , 0.043 µg m-2 s-1 , and 72 µg m-2 s-1 for CO, N2O, and CO2, respectively. While the measured CO and CO2 emissions are comparable with those calculated using the assumed energy consumption and applying the according emission factors, the nitrous oxide emission 25 exceeds the expected value by a magnitude. This may indicate that the nitrous oxide emissions are significantly underestimated in the emission inventories, and modifications in the methodology of emission calculations are necessary. Using a 3-dimensional forward transport model, we further show that, in contrast to the flux measurements, the concentration measurements at the regional background monitoring site are only insignificantly influenced by the emissions of the nearby village. 30
Visibility is a simple indicator of air quality, and its drastic decrease is often related to poo... more Visibility is a simple indicator of air quality, and its drastic decrease is often related to poor air quality resulting from an increase in aerosol (particulate matter PM) concentration. Visibility is also related to water vapor due to the hygroscopicity of aerosols. As a result, water vapor may considerably influence PM measurements especially in the case of low-cost PM sensors which typically measure the ambient (wet) size of PM. Several possibilities are available to eliminate the effect of aerosol hygroscopicity on PM10 measurements, and we aimed to discuss and compare three of the methods: gravimetry (mass change of aerosol filters due to RH variation), application of the AIM model (based on aerosol chemical composition) and estimation derived from visibility data. In this work, we discuss how hygroscopic growth factors, obtained from different methods, are related, as well as the relevance of the hygroscopic growth rate derived from visibility observations in PM10 measurements. Moreover, since in PM monitoringincluding the low-cost PM sensorsa quasi-real time, appropriate and simple method would be desirable for consideration of aerosol hygroscopicity, we aimed to construct a proxy for this purpose. We found that the visibility-derived mass growth rate could serve as a simple basis for these requirements. aerosol concentration control changes in dry extinction/visibility (e.g., Jung et al., 2009; Cheng et al., 2011). The dependence of visibility on water vapor is due to the hygroscopicity of the aerosol particles. Because of hygroscopic growth, the scattering of the particles increases significantly at high relative humidity (RH) levels (Chen et al., 2019;
Air pollution can severely affect the health of citizens living in urban environment. Monitoring ... more Air pollution can severely affect the health of citizens living in urban environment. Monitoring and assessment of air pollution by applying appropriate modeling tools are essential to provide information on air quality to the public. Several air quality forecast and information systems exist in Europe calculating present and predicted concentrations and potential exceedances using a combination of weather forecasting and chemical composition simulations. This paper presents an air quality prediction model system for the area of Budapest. The forecasting modeling system recently consists of a version of the WRF meteorological model and the CHIMERE chemistry transport model. The model system calculates the PM10, NO2, SO2 and O3 concentration values for the city area with 1-h temporal resolution. In this work we present the results of the validation of the prediction system. In the evaluation work, the PM10, NO2 and O3 data detected by the air quality monitoring network of Budapest, as well as the forecasted air pollutant concentration values of the air quality prediction model system are used.
Although small rural settlements are only minor individual sources of greenhouse gases and air po... more Although small rural settlements are only minor individual sources of greenhouse gases and air pollution, their high overall occurrence can significantly contribute to the total emissions of a region or country. Emissions from a rural lifestyle may be remarkably different than those of urban and industrialized regions, but nevertheless they have hardly been studied so far. Here, flux measurements at a tall-tower eddy covariance monitoring site and the footprint model FFP are used to determine the real-world wintertime CO, N 2 O, and CO 2 emissions of a small village in western Hungary. The recorded emission densities, dominantly resulting from residential heating, are 3.5, 0.043, and 72 µg m −2 s −1 for CO, N 2 O, and CO 2 , respectively. While the measured CO and CO 2 emissions are comparable to those calculated using the assumed energy consumption and applying the according emission factors, the nitrous oxide emissions exceed the expected value by a magnitude. This may indicate that the nitrous oxide emissions are significantly underestimated in the emission inventories, and modifications in the methodology of emission calculations are necessary. Using a three-dimensional forward transport model, we further show that, in contrast to the flux measurements, the concentration measurements at the regional background monitoring site are only insignificantly influenced by the emissions of the nearby village.
ATMO_PLAN-egy levegőminőség-tervezési alkalmazás Összefoglalás: A légszennyezés nemcsak helyi szi... more ATMO_PLAN-egy levegőminőség-tervezési alkalmazás Összefoglalás: A légszennyezés nemcsak helyi szintű, hanem egész Európát és a Földet érintő probléma. A levegőszennyezéséhez az ipari folyamatok, a közlekedés, a lakossági tüzelés, valamint a mezőgazdaság is egyaránt hozzájárul. A szennyezőanyagok koncentrációja térben és időben is nagy változékonyságot mutat, de jellemzően a forrásokhoz közel alakulnak ki magas koncentrációk. A városi környezetben a PM, az NO 2 és az O 3 koncentrációinak emelkedése okoz legtöbbször gondot. A légkör állapotáról a mérések biztosítják a legpontosabb információt. A monitoring állomások mérései azonban csak adott helyszínre és időpontra vonatkoznak. Olyan esetben, amikor a monitoring állomásoktól távoli területek levegőminőségét kell értékelni, egyedül a számítógépes modellek jelentik a megoldást. A levegőminőségi modellek olyan számítógépes szoftverek, amelyek matematikai eszközöket használnak, hogy azokat a fizikai és kémiai folyamatokat szimulálják, amelyek a szennyezőanyagok koncentrációinak kialakulásáért felelnek. A modell segítségével valójában a források és a kialakult levegőminőség közötti kapcsolatot határozhatjuk meg. A levegőminőség vizsgálatára alkalmas modelleket használhatjuk az aktuális, vagy egy múltbéli, magas szenynyeződéssel járó levegőminőségi helyzetek értékelésére, segítségükkel a szennyezőanyagok koncentrációja előrejelezhető, valamint közreműködésükkel a szennyezőanyagok bizonyos mértékű kibocsátását célzó intézkedéseknek a levegőminőség javulására gyakorolt hatását is lehet számszerűsíteni. Az előadásban egy olyan levegőminőség tervezését támogató online alkalmazást mutatunk be, amely a HungAIRy LIFE integrált projekt keretein belül került kifejlesztésre, és amely 10 magyarországi város ökömenedzsereinek munkáját fogja a közeljövőben megkönnyíteni.
Concentrations of 222 Rn at 0.1 m and 6.5 m height above ground level and 222 Rn flux density wer... more Concentrations of 222 Rn at 0.1 m and 6.5 m height above ground level and 222 Rn flux density were measured during nights characterized by strong cooling, light winds and clear sky conditions in the Carpathian Basin in Hungary. A very stable boundary layer (vSBL) formed on 14 nights between 15 August and 3 September 2009. On 12 nights, an estimated 72% (s.d. 20%) of 222 Rn emitted from the surface since sunset was retained within the lowest 6.5 m above the ground until sunrise the following morning. On two nights an intermittent increase in wind speed at 9.4 m height was followed by a rise in temperature at 2.0 m height, indicating a larger atmospheric motion that resulted in 222 Rn at 0.1 m around sunrise being the same as around the preceding sunset. It does not seem to be rare in a large continental basin for a vSBL to be nearly completely decoupled from the atmosphere above for the entire period from sunset to sunrise.
Ground-level or tropospheric ozone (O 3) is an oxidant air pollutant that has harmful effect on h... more Ground-level or tropospheric ozone (O 3) is an oxidant air pollutant that has harmful effect on human health and vegetation, however, it is a short-lived greenhouse gas. Ozone is a secondary pollutant; which means that it is not directly emitted in the ambient air, but also produced from the photochemical oxidation of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), methane (CH 4), or carbon monoxide (CO) in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NO x). It is destroyed both photochemically and through deposition to the surface. Summarizing the chemistry of ozone is complex and non-linear. Background concentrations of ground-level ozone in Europe do not show a significant downward trend, but in Hungary essential reduction (-0.28 μg/m 3) was observed at K-puszta station in the last decades. In the monthly distribution the amplitude decrease with increase in altitude, at K-puszta 45.1 μg/m 3 , while at Nyírjes 36.6 μg/m 3 amplitudes were observed. Based on our data we found that the ozone gradient is about +1.4 μg/m 3 /m. Breathing ozone can result in a number of negative health effects that are observed in relevant segments of the population. Ozone also is known as the air pollutant most damaging to agricultural crops and other plants. This article gives a general overview of the ozone problem focusing on the Hungarian specialties.
ʊThe precise knowledge of the beginning and the end of the growing season is necessary for the ca... more ʊThe precise knowledge of the beginning and the end of the growing season is necessary for the calculation of climatic indicators with evident effect on grapevine production. The aim of this study is to develop suitable methods on the basis of thermal conditions that can be used for calculation of the beginning, the end, and the length of the growing season for every single year. The two most accurate methods ('5mid' and 'int') are selected using the root-mean-square error compared to the reference growing season values based on averaging the daily mean temperature for several decades. In case of the '5mid' method, the beginning (or the end) is the middle day of the first (or last) 5-day period with temperature not less than 10 °C. In case of the 'int' method, the beginning (or the end) of the growing season is the day after March 15 (or September 15), when the smoothed series of daily temperature using the monthly average temperatures of March and April (or September and October) exceeds 10 °C (or falls below 10 °C). As a next step, several climatic indicators (e.g., Huglin index and hydrothermal coefficient) are calculated for Hungary for three time periods (1961í1990, 2021í2050, and 2071í2100*) using the '5mid' and 'int' methods. For this purpose, the bias-corrected daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and daily precipitation outputs of three different regional climate models (RegCM, ALADIN, and PRECIS) are used. Extreme temperature and precipitation 218 indices are also evaluated as they determine the risk of grapevine production. The spatial distributions of the indicators are presented on maps. We compare the indicators for the past and for the future using one-way completely randomized robust ANOVA (analysis of variance). Results suggest that changes of temperature conditions in the 21st century will favor the production of red grapevine and late-ripening cultivars. Furthermore, drought seasons will be longer and extreme high summer temperatures will become more frequent, which are clearly considered as high risk factors in grapevine production. Besides the negative effects, the risk of winter frost damage is expected to decrease, which is evidently a favorable change in terms of grapevine production.
This paper presents a Eulerian dispersion model - MEDIA - which was adapted at the Hungarian Mete... more This paper presents a Eulerian dispersion model - MEDIA - which was adapted at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Its aim is to provide forecasts for the dispersion of pollution in case of accidental release of potentially dangerous materials into the atmosphere. The model is part of the emergency response system of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, which can be operated on request. The model can be used in real time mode. The model calculates air concentration fields at 10 different sigma layers, and deposition field (dry plus wet) for 24/36/48 hours depending on the forecasting time of the driving numerical weather prediction model. Forecasted data used are gained from two different numerical weather prediction models: the ECMWF and the ALADIN/LACE. In this paper we compare the concentration and deposition fields in case of ECMWF and ALADIN/LACE, and present some new results which provide the decision makers with some new information on the time evolution of the polluted material. An interesting weather situation was selected to present our results. The influence of dry and wet deposition was examined separately. For the covering abstract see ITRD E122175.
ATMO_PLAN-egy levegőminőség-tervezési alkalmazás Összefoglalás: A légszennyezés nemcsak helyi szi... more ATMO_PLAN-egy levegőminőség-tervezési alkalmazás Összefoglalás: A légszennyezés nemcsak helyi szintű, hanem egész Európát és a Földet érintő probléma. A levegőszennyezéséhez az ipari folyamatok, a közlekedés, a lakossági tüzelés, valamint a mezőgazdaság is egyaránt hozzájárul. A szennyezőanyagok koncentrációja térben és időben is nagy változékonyságot mutat, de jellemzően a forrásokhoz közel alakulnak ki magas koncentrációk. A városi környezetben a PM, az NO 2 és az O 3 koncentrációinak emelkedése okoz legtöbbször gondot. A légkör állapotáról a mérések biztosítják a legpontosabb információt. A monitoring állomások mérései azonban csak adott helyszínre és időpontra vonatkoznak. Olyan esetben, amikor a monitoring állomásoktól távoli területek levegőminőségét kell értékelni, egyedül a számítógépes modellek jelentik a megoldást. A levegőminőségi modellek olyan számítógépes szoftverek, amelyek matematikai eszközöket használnak, hogy azokat a fizikai és kémiai folyamatokat szimulálják, amelyek a szennyezőanyagok koncentrációinak kialakulásáért felelnek. A modell segítségével valójában a források és a kialakult levegőminőség közötti kapcsolatot határozhatjuk meg. A levegőminőség vizsgálatára alkalmas modelleket használhatjuk az aktuális, vagy egy múltbéli, magas szenynyeződéssel járó levegőminőségi helyzetek értékelésére, segítségükkel a szennyezőanyagok koncentrációja előrejelezhető, valamint közreműködésükkel a szennyezőanyagok bizonyos mértékű kibocsátását célzó intézkedéseknek a levegőminőség javulására gyakorolt hatását is lehet számszerűsíteni. Az előadásban egy olyan levegőminőség tervezését támogató online alkalmazást mutatunk be, amely a HungAIRy LIFE integrált projekt keretein belül került kifejlesztésre, és amely 10 magyarországi város ökömenedzsereinek munkáját fogja a közeljövőben megkönnyíteni.
This paper presents a Eulerian dispersion model - MEDIA - which was adapted at the Hungarian Mete... more This paper presents a Eulerian dispersion model - MEDIA - which was adapted at the Hungarian Meteorological Service. Its aim is to provide forecasts for the dispersion of pollution in case of accidental release of potentially dangerous materials into the atmosphere. The model is part of the emergency response system of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, which can be operated on request. The model can be used in real time mode. The model calculates air concentration fields at 10 different sigma layers, and deposition field (dry plus wet) for 24/36/48 hours depending on the forecasting time of the driving numerical weather prediction model. Forecasted data used are gained from two different numerical weather prediction models: the ECMWF and the ALADIN/LACE. In this paper we compare the concentration and deposition fields in case of ECMWF and ALADIN/LACE, and present some new results which provide the decision makers with some new information on the time evolution of the polluted ma...
This paper presents an application of the EDMS dispersion modelling system to airport air quality... more This paper presents an application of the EDMS dispersion modelling system to airport air quality calculations. The EDMS system is a combined emissions and dispersion model which can be used to produce an inventory of emissions generated at Budapest Ferihegy Airport, as well as to calculate pollutant concentrations on and around the airport. Daily average NO X concentration values are predicted for 24 hours, and these forecasted values are evaluated with the concentration values measured at the air pollution monitoring stations on the area of Budapest Ferihegy Airport.
⎯ An operational air quality forecasting model system has been developed and provides daily forec... more ⎯ An operational air quality forecasting model system has been developed and provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for the area of Hungary and three big cites of the country (Budapest, Miskolc, and Pécs). The core of the model system is the CHIMERE off-line chemical transport model. The AROME numerical weather prediction model provides the gridded meteorological inputs for the chemical model calculations. The horizontal resolution of the AROME meteorological fields is consistent with the CHIMERE horizontal resolution. The individual forecasted concentrations for the following 2 days are displayed on a public website of the Hungarian Meteorological Service. It is essential to have a quantitative understanding of the uncertainty in model output arising from uncertainties in the input meteorological fields. The main aim of this research is to probe the response of an air quality model to its uncertain meteorological inputs. Ensembles are one method to explore how uncertainty in meteorology affects air pollution concentrations. During the past decades, meteorological ensemble modeling has received extensive research and operational interest because of its ability to better characterize forecast uncertainty. One such ensemble forecast system is the one of the AROME model, which has an 11-member ensemble where each member is perturbed by initial and lateral boundary conditions. In this work we focus on wintertime particulate matter concentrations, since this pollutant is extremely sensitive to near-surface mixing processes. Selecting a number of extreme air pollution situations we will show what the impact of the meteorological uncertainty is on the simulated concentration fields using AROME ensemble members.
Although small rural settlements are only minor individual sources of greenhouse gases and air po... more Although small rural settlements are only minor individual sources of greenhouse gases and air pollution, their high overall quantity can significantly contribute to the total emissions of a region or country. The emissions of the rural lifestyle may be remarkably different from that of the urban and industrialized regions, but nevertheless they have been hardly studied so far. In this study, flux measurements at a tall-tower 20 eddy covariance monitoring site and the footprint model FFP are used to determine the real-world wintertime CO, N2O, and CO2 emissions of a small village in western Hungary. The recorded emission densities, dominantly derived from residential heating, are 3.5 µg m-2 s-1 , 0.043 µg m-2 s-1 , and 72 µg m-2 s-1 for CO, N2O, and CO2, respectively. While the measured CO and CO2 emissions are comparable with those calculated using the assumed energy consumption and applying the according emission factors, the nitrous oxide emission 25 exceeds the expected value by a magnitude. This may indicate that the nitrous oxide emissions are significantly underestimated in the emission inventories, and modifications in the methodology of emission calculations are necessary. Using a 3-dimensional forward transport model, we further show that, in contrast to the flux measurements, the concentration measurements at the regional background monitoring site are only insignificantly influenced by the emissions of the nearby village. 30
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Papers by Zita Ferenczi