This paper sheds more light in the long run relationship of carbon emissions, economic growth, an... more This paper sheds more light in the long run relationship of carbon emissions, economic growth, and foreign direct investment. By investigating the relationship in the Philippines, we capture the dynamics of the carbon emissions, foreign direct investment and economic growth in a developing country. In theory, economic growth is driven by more production in the economy and vast investment inflows into the economy. Further, the theory suggests that more investment leads to more production in the economy which will contribute to more carbon emissions. Using annual time series data from 1970-2014, this time period captures the time span of robust economic growth experienced by the Philippines and the development of the three variables over time. These three variables are carbon dioxide damage as proxy for carbon emissions, foreign direct investment net inflows as proxy for foreign direct investment, and GDP as proxy for economic growth; and all of these datasets were retrieved from the World Bank. Standard time series econometric procedures are used to test the relationship of the carbon emissions, foreign direct investment, and economic growth. These tests include Stationarity tests, Granger causality test, Four cointegration techniques, and an Impulse Response Function to establish these relationships of economic growth and carbon emissions, foreign direct investment and carbon emissions and economic growth and foreign direct investment, These cointegration techniques include the Johansen's Cointegration Test, Engle-Granger Cointegration Test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Bounds Test, and Phillips-Ouliaris Cointegration Test. By using the results of these tests, we conclude that the three variables are cointegrated in the long run and there is evidence of unidirectional granger causality among the three variables.
With the existing trajectory path of the Philippines’ advancement aspirations, there is challenge... more With the existing trajectory path of the Philippines’ advancement aspirations, there is challenge that lies in sustaining and dramatically elevating the growth in foreign direct investments (FDI), which are critical for the country’s economic development. In light of the impending reforms that aim to fast track economic growth in the country, this paper provides an overview of the current economic landscape in view of foreign direct investments. We examined the prevailing political noises that dictate investment prospects and analyzed foreign direct investments across administrations and against its competition among neighbor countries. Tracking down foreign direct investments in the past 6 years from 2012 to 2017 shows that FDI since 2010 has exhibited an upward trend, but the “long game” in FDI is not built on quick spurts—it is more amply compared to a marathon underpinned by strong institutions and fundamentals. If we were to use a health analogy, the evidence presented suggests that ours is a generally healthy economy, posting impressive growth, but carrying some structural flaws. A successful cure will likely come at the hands of skilled and respected surgeons wielding scalpels, rather than those who would wield axes, doing more harm than good.
Since the beginning of the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, significant changes have ... more Since the beginning of the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, significant changes have been made to the Philippines’ foreign policy regime. Ties with the Peoples’ Republic of China have strengthened, while traditional allies like the USA and European Union have been antagonized. On a similar note Duterte has also allowed the operation of the Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs), where various sources suggest that the majority of Chinese nationals now in the Philippines are presently employed.<br><br>This analysis aims to provide a general assessment of the economic yield as well as the risks that has resulted from this foreign policy pivot of the Philippines. On one hand, increasing ties with China has resulted in an influx of tourism, investment, and infrastructure financing flows. For instance, based on the NEDA approved projects, China has been granted 12 infrastructure projects, the most awarded to other countries in 2018. However, negative effects have also been evident. In particular, the rising number of Chinese nationals - both legal and illegal - in the country has also raised concerns regarding our national security, both due to their disproportionate impacts on local property markets, and the potential dearth of employment benefits being extended to Filipinos. The balance of these emergent risks and benefits from the China rapprochement raises important questions on the sustainability of the gains from increasing ties with China, and underscore the need for continued monitoring through a combine economic and national security lens.
This paper sheds more light in the long run relationship of carbon emissions, economic growth, an... more This paper sheds more light in the long run relationship of carbon emissions, economic growth, and foreign direct investment. By investigating the relationship in the Philippines, we capture the dynamics of the carbon emissions, foreign direct investment and economic growth in a developing country. In theory, economic growth is driven by more production in the economy and vast investment inflows into the economy. Further, the theory suggests that more investment leads to more production in the economy which will contribute to more carbon emissions. Using annual time series data from 1970-2014, this time period captures the time span of robust economic growth experienced by the Philippines and the development of the three variables over time. These three variables are carbon dioxide damage as proxy for carbon emissions, foreign direct investment net inflows as proxy for foreign direct investment, and GDP as proxy for economic growth; and all of these datasets were retrieved from the World Bank. Standard time series econometric procedures are used to test the relationship of the carbon emissions, foreign direct investment, and economic growth. These tests include Stationarity tests, Granger causality test, Four cointegration techniques, and an Impulse Response Function to establish these relationships of economic growth and carbon emissions, foreign direct investment and carbon emissions and economic growth and foreign direct investment, These cointegration techniques include the Johansen's Cointegration Test, Engle-Granger Cointegration Test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Bounds Test, and Phillips-Ouliaris Cointegration Test. By using the results of these tests, we conclude that the three variables are cointegrated in the long run and there is evidence of unidirectional granger causality among the three variables.
With the existing trajectory path of the Philippines’ advancement aspirations, there is challenge... more With the existing trajectory path of the Philippines’ advancement aspirations, there is challenge that lies in sustaining and dramatically elevating the growth in foreign direct investments (FDI), which are critical for the country’s economic development. In light of the impending reforms that aim to fast track economic growth in the country, this paper provides an overview of the current economic landscape in view of foreign direct investments. We examined the prevailing political noises that dictate investment prospects and analyzed foreign direct investments across administrations and against its competition among neighbor countries. Tracking down foreign direct investments in the past 6 years from 2012 to 2017 shows that FDI since 2010 has exhibited an upward trend, but the “long game” in FDI is not built on quick spurts—it is more amply compared to a marathon underpinned by strong institutions and fundamentals. If we were to use a health analogy, the evidence presented suggests that ours is a generally healthy economy, posting impressive growth, but carrying some structural flaws. A successful cure will likely come at the hands of skilled and respected surgeons wielding scalpels, rather than those who would wield axes, doing more harm than good.
Since the beginning of the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, significant changes have ... more Since the beginning of the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, significant changes have been made to the Philippines’ foreign policy regime. Ties with the Peoples’ Republic of China have strengthened, while traditional allies like the USA and European Union have been antagonized. On a similar note Duterte has also allowed the operation of the Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs), where various sources suggest that the majority of Chinese nationals now in the Philippines are presently employed.<br><br>This analysis aims to provide a general assessment of the economic yield as well as the risks that has resulted from this foreign policy pivot of the Philippines. On one hand, increasing ties with China has resulted in an influx of tourism, investment, and infrastructure financing flows. For instance, based on the NEDA approved projects, China has been granted 12 infrastructure projects, the most awarded to other countries in 2018. However, negative effects have also been evident. In particular, the rising number of Chinese nationals - both legal and illegal - in the country has also raised concerns regarding our national security, both due to their disproportionate impacts on local property markets, and the potential dearth of employment benefits being extended to Filipinos. The balance of these emergent risks and benefits from the China rapprochement raises important questions on the sustainability of the gains from increasing ties with China, and underscore the need for continued monitoring through a combine economic and national security lens.
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