Foreign Exchange Market

We use an agent-based approach to model trading behaviour in high-frequency markets. This study focuses on the Foreign Exchange (FX) market. The initial part of this study is to observe the micro-behaviour of traders to define the stylized facts of their trading activities. This is performed using a high- frequency dataset of anonymised individual traders' historical transactions on an account

INSEAD An asymmetric information model of the bid-ask spread is developed for foreign exchange market subject to occasional government interventions. Traditional tests of the unbiasedness of the forward rate as a predictor of the future spot rate are shown to be inconsistent when the rates are measured as the average of their respective bid and ask quotes. Larger bid-ask spreads on Fridays are documented. Reliable evidence of asymmetric bid-ask spreads for all days of the week, albeit more pronounced on Fridays, are presented. The null hypotesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate continues to be rejected. The regression slope coefficients increase toward unity, however, indicating a less variable risk premium.

This paper explores the return volatility predictability inherent in high-frequency speculative returns. Our analysis focuses on a refinement of the more traditional volatility measures, the integrated Õolatility, which links the notion of volatility more directly to the return variance over the relevant horizon. In our empirical analysis of the foreign exchange market the integrated volatility is conveniently approximated by a cumulative sum of the squared intraday returns. Forecast horizons ranging from short intraday to 1-month intervals are investigated. We document that standard volatility models generally provide good forecasts of this economically relevant volatility measure. Moreover, the use of highfrequency returns significantly improves the longer run interdaily volatility forecasts, both in theory and practice. The results are thus directly relevant for general research methodology as well as industry applications. q 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: C15; C22; G15

Algorithmic trading has become the standard in the financial market. Traditionally, most algorithms have relied on rule-based expert systems which are a set of complex if/then rules that need to be updated manually to changing market conditions. Machine learning (ML) is the natural next step in algorithmic trading because it can directly learn market patterns and behaviors from historical trading data and factor this into trading decisions. In this paper, a complete end-to-end system is proposed for automated low-frequency quantitative trading in the foreign exchange (Forex) markets. The system utilizes several State of the Art (SOTA) machine learning strategies that are combined under an ensemble model to derive the market signal for trading. Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used to optimize the strategies for maximizing profits. The system also includes a money management strategy to mitigate risk and a back-testing framework to evaluate system performance. The models were trained on EUR...

Price discovery is a principal function of financial markets. Yet, especially for dealership markets, financial economists know little about how prices are determined. In this paper I analyze the process of price discovery in the multiple-dealer, interbank spot market for foreign exchange. I use DM/$ quotes to calculate interbank dealers’ “information shares,” their proportional contributions to the variance of innovations in the implicit, efficient exchange rate. These information shares are used to analyze relationships between price discovery and dealer characteristics. Unlike the U.S. equity markets, where regional exchanges contribute relatively little to price discovery, less-active interbank dealers play a large role, impounding most of the information into quotes. A pooled analysis of dealers’ intraday information shares indicates that the lower the relative bid-ask spread and the greater the number of regional foreign exchange branches, the higher is a dealer’s contribution...

Applying S. Taylor's approach (1986), we make an extensive analysis on the Japanese stock market, foreign exchange market and the Japanese Government Bond Futures market. The purpose of this paper is to empirically reveal the structure of the Japanese markets via Taylor's model rather than to propose a new model. For this reason, we include a variety of analyzed data particularly for the Japanese stock market and the foreign exchange market because the results can be used in a different manner. The paper consists of three parts. But each part can be read separately.

This paper relies on wavelet multiresolution analysis to capture the dependence structure of currency markets and reveal the complex dynamics across different timescales. It investigates the nature and direction of causal relationships among the most widely traded currencies denoted relative to the United States Dollar (USD), namely Euro (EUR), Great Britain Pound (GBP) and Japanese Yen (JPY). The timescale analysis involves the estimation of linear vis-à-vis nonlinear and spectral causality of wavelet components and aggregate series as well as the detection of short-vs. long-run linkages and cross-scale correlations. Moreover, this study attempts to probe into the micro-foundations of across-scale heterogeneity in the causality pattern on the basis of trader behavior with different time horizons. New stylized properties emerge in the volatility structure and the implications for the flow of information across scales are inferred. The examined period starts from the introduction of the Euro and covers the dot-com bubble, the financial crisis of 2007-2010 and the Eurozone debt crisis. Technically, this paper presents an invariant discrete wavelet transform that deals efficiently with phase shifts, dyadic-length and boundary effects. It also proposes a new entropy-based methodology for the determination of the optimal decomposition level. Overall, there is no indication of a global causal behavior that dominates at all timescales. When the nonlinear effects are accounted for, the evidence of dynamical bidirectional causality implies that the pattern of leads and lags changes over time. These results may prove useful to quantify the process of integration as well as influence the greater predictability of currency markets.

The purpose of this paper is to review the evidence on the profitability of technical analysis. The empirical literature is categorized into two groups, 'early' and 'modern' studies, according to the characteristics of testing procedures. Early studies indicate that technical trading strategies are profitable in foreign exchange markets and futures markets, but not in stock markets. Modern studies indicate that technical trading strategies consistently generate economic profits in a variety of speculative markets at least until the early 1990s. Among a total of 95 modern studies, 56 studies find positive results regarding technical trading strategies, 20 studies obtain negative results, and 19 studies indicate mixed results. Despite the positive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies, most empirical studies are subject to various problems in their testing procedures, e.g. data snooping, ex post selection of trading rules or search technologies, and difficulties in estimation of risk and transaction costs. Future research must address these deficiencies in testing in order to provide conclusive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies.

The book is addressed to professional traders, investors, and economists that would like to explore new possibilities in financial market trend analysis. The book elaborates on Complex Technical Analysis that bases on compound analysis of assets where standard technical analysis tools as Moving Average are influenced by more variables than the price of the single asset. The book delivers a new way of creating technical indicators and presents some of the new technical analysis tools as General Trend Indicator or Options Arbitrage Index.
Furthermore, the paper describes potential modifications for all of the existing technical analysis indicators focusing on new types of Moving Average – XMA and a new type of Relative Strength Index – XRSI that present enormous potential for application in trading and investing allowing to personalize both of the indicators.
What is more, the complex technical analysis theory, presented in the book, allows an investor to modify all of the technical tools he or she uses to reach more personalized goals. The modifications of standard technical analysis tools allow for the faster indication of buy/sell signals at once with fewer jigsaws creation. The presented modifications in RSI and Moving Averages enable using technical analysis in bigger scale examination of price trends, analyzing one particular economic sector, a country economy or even whole global economy patterns.
One of the most important new technical indicator introduced by the book the GTI - General Trend Indicator tracks the oversold and overbought levels in commodities, stocks, indices, bonds and currencies in the variety of scales, from one asset till global market analysis. The next indicator – The Arbitrage Index is the first technical indicator designed for Options trading that creates arbitrage in and out points, where options trading is profitable.
In outline, by introducing new technical indicators, the book focuses on a new way of creating technical analysis tools, and new applications for the technical analysis that goes beyond the single asset price trend examination.

This paper provides real-time evidence on the frequency, size, duration and economic significance of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market. We investigate deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency. The analysis unveils that: i) short-lived violations of CIP arise; ii) the size of CIP violations can be economically significant; iii) their duration is, on average, high enough to allow agents to exploit them, but low enough to explain why such opportunities have gone undetected in much previous research using data at lower frequency.

The  paper  focuses  on  analysing  monetary  policy  in  Serbia.  The  National  Bank  of  Serbia  chose  inflation  targeting,  which  sets  price  stability  as  the  main  objective  of  monetary  policy.  To  achieve  this  goal,  the  central  bank  uses  different  monetary  policy  instruments which analysis can provide us with the understanding of the main directions of their actions but also of the limitations of its application. Only through improvement of both instruments and monetary policy the central bank will create a better foundation for achieving monetary stability. In addition, the implementation of ex-change  rate  policy  is  entrusted  to  the  National  Bank  of  Serbia,  as  the main regulator of the financial system. A mere use of managed floating exchange rate, as the chosen exchange rate regime, is an appropriate solution in the current economic circumstances and in accordance with the desired objective of monetary policy.

Women empowerment has taken a center stage in the present development agenda. The study examines the role of financial inclusion in supporting women empowerment in Lango sub region, Northern Uganda. Using both purposive and simple random sampling a Sample of 126 respondents was selected with a response rate of 100% realized. The study found out that financial support appeared to be sparse, The regulations, supervision and monitoring of some of these firms was lacking, causing many women to lose their savings with such firms. The study therefore recommended that Government should establish buffers to serve as collateral security for women who intend to secure financial credit. Financial service providers should lower down the costs of operating accounts for the financial inclusiveness of women, particularly women from rural areas. Government should tighten monitoring, regulating and supervisory policies of financial service providers to restore public trust in financial institutions in Uganda. Financial services providers, government and other development partners should offer both formal and informal business education training.

We investigate triangular arbitrage within the spot foreign exchange market using highfrequency executable prices. We show that triangular arbitrage opportunities do exist, but that most have short durations and small magnitudes. We find intra-day variations in the number and length of arbitrage opportunities, with larger numbers of opportunities with shorter mean durations occurring during more liquid hours. We demonstrate further that the number of arbitrage opportunities has decreased in recent years, implying a corresponding increase in pricing efficiency. Using trading simulations, we show that a trader would need to beat other market participants to an unfeasibly large proportion of arbitrage prices to profit from triangular arbitrage over a prolonged period of time. Our results suggest that the foreign exchange market is internally self-consistent and provide a limited verification of market efficiency.

The stock market can be a great source of confusion for many people. The average person generally falls into one of two categories. The first believe investing is a form of gambling; they are certain that if you invest, you will more than likely end up losing your money. Often these fears are driven by the personal experiences of family members and friends who suffered similar fates or lived through the Great Depression - (Nelson, n.d.) “an economic slump in North America, Europe, and other industrialized areas of the world that began in 1929 and lasted until about 1939. Someone who believes along this line of thinking simply does not understand what the stock market is or why it exists.

The second category consists of those who know they should invest for the long-run, but don’t know where to begin. Many feel like investing is some sort of black-magic that only a few people hold the key to. More often than not, they leave their financial decisions up to professionals, and cannot tell you why they own a particular stock or mutual fund. Their investment style is blind faith or limited to this stock is going up, we should buy it. This group is in far more danger than the first. They invest like the masses and then wonder why their results are mediocre (or in some cases, devastating). This paper focuses on the stock exchange market highlighting its operations.


Keywords: Equities, Securities, Brokers & Traders.

The Information and Communication Technology and foreign exchange market is a vast subject. This Article considers the impact of technological advances on the foreign exchange management and focus on transparency to determine exchange rates, transparency relates to how efficiently dealers can aggregate information in foreign exchange. There are of course many other uses of information and communication technology (ICT) that have obviously influenced the markets like, it will focus on how to manage risk in Volatile condition of foreign exchange (Fx) rates with the help of technology and take appropriate decisions to avert risk and lead to profitability in the area of Marketing, Production and finance in international marketing.

Technica, or chartist, analysis of financial markets involves providing forecasts or trading advice on the basis of largely visual inspection of past prices, without regard to any underlying economic or ‘fundamental’ analysis. This paper reports the results of a questionnaire survey, conducted on behalf of the Bank of England, among chief foreign exchange dealers based in London in November 1988. Amongst other findings, it is revealed that at least 90 per cent of respondents place some weight on this form of non-fundamental analysis when forming views at one or more time horizons. There is also a skew towards reliance on technical, as opposed to fundamentalist, analysis at shorter horizons, which becomes steadily reversed as the length of horizon considered is increased. A very high proportion of chief dealers view technical and fundamental analysis as complementary forms of analysis and a substantial proportion suggest that technical advice may be self-fulfilling. (JEL F31)

In this paper we employ a Markov-Switching EGARCH model to investigate the dynamic linkage between stock price volatility and exchange rate changes for four emerging countries over the period 1994-2009. Results distinguish between two different regimes in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns. The first corresponds to a high mean-low variance regime and the second regime is characterized by a low mean and a high variance. Moreover, we provide strong evidence that the relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets is regime dependent and stockprice volatility responds asymmetrically to events in the foreign exchange market. Our results demonstrate that foreign exchange rate changes have a significant impact on the probability of transition across regimes.

Vietnam's foreign exchange (forex) market has remained relatively poorly developed despite more than two decades of general reform throughout the economy. This paper adopts a microstructure approach to the analysis of the root-causes underlying the operational deficiencies of this market. The analysis suggests that the authorities have tended to follow a de facto adjustable peg exchange rate regime which, in turn, has acted as a retardant to the development of the country's forex market. Consequently, market signals have become increasingly non-transparent. There are indications that market forces have often moved beyond the framework of current regulations.

Foreign Exchange we mean foreign currencies or more commonly, claims to foreign money balances. It includes all monetary instruments which give residents of one country a financial claim on another country.

The use of foreign exchange is a country principal means of settling its transactions with other countries. In the broader sense, the foreign exchange is related to the mechanism of foreign payments. It refers to the system whereby one currency is exchanged for or converted into another Foreign exchange also refers to the global market where currencies are traded virtually around-the-clock.

The term foreign exchange is usually abbreviated as "forex" and occasionally as "FX." Within its 17th year of operations, Mutual Trust Bank Limited has opened 110 branches across the country and has been dealing with a wide variety of Foreign exchange Credit and Deposit Products since its emergence.

This study deals with the performance of foreign exchange and the foreign exchange management practice of Mutual Trust Bank. The study is entitled as ‘Foreign Exchange Operation and Performance of Mutual Trust Bank Limited (MTBL)’. In this report consist up with four individual parts. In here the First part is the Introduction part & here briefly describe Rationale of the Study, Objective, Methodology, scope, Limitations and My Experiences during the report.

The Second part is Theoretical Aspects and here describe Concepts, Principals, techniques, Legal aspects etc. The third part is practical issues of Mutual Trust Bank (MTB), here described about the Overview of Mutual Trust Bank, financial analysis, Foreign Exchange Operation analysis, SWOT analysis, and findings.

The Final part is Concluding Notes here describe Recommendations and Conclusion. Foreign exchange is an important department of Mutual Trust Bank, which deals with import, export and foreign remittances. It bridges between importers and exporters. This department is playing an important role in enhancing export earnings, which aids economic growth and in turn it helps for the economic development. On the other hand, it also helps to meet those goods and service, which are most demand able and not adequate in our country

The forex market is the backbone of international trade and global investing. It is critical to support imports and exports, which are necessary to gain access to resources and to create additional demand for goods and services. Without the ability to trade in different currencies, companies’ prospects would be limited and global economic growth would suffer. Banks are one of the main element of the financial system of Bangladesh and have a huge impact on the overall economic condition of the country. A banking organization has different departments and functional areas, all of which must operate holistically if the firm is to be successful and one of them is the Foreign Exchange Department. My report shows the performance of Foreign Exchnage Department of Janata Bank Limited

This paper examine the causation between Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Economic Growth in Nigeria for a period of 57 years, ranges from 1960 to 2017 with the application of time series econometric techniques. The empirical results show that there is a strong and positive relationship between Real Exchange Rate (RER), Real Interest Rate (RIR) and Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP). Also, there is an evidence of long-run equilibrium bi-directional relationship between RER and RGDP. However, there is no causality between RIR and RGDP as evidenced by Pairwise Granger Causality Tests results.

This paper provides real-time evidence on the frequency, size, duration and economic significance of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market. We investigate deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency. The analysis unveils

Call money market in Bangladesh was basically developed under competitive environment of the financial market. However, the market could not develop as expected, rather it showed a wide range of seasonal fluctuations. The study reveals that in most cases, whenever excess reserve falls, the rate of interest in call money market rises and vice versa. It also shows that Non-bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) have played a major role in the recent fluctuations. Some Private Commercial Banks (PCBs) have taken the opportunity of borrowing money at low rates on the same day, thereby making the market volatile. Other reasons for the recent fluctuations are the expansion of credit and withdrawal of deposit by the public during Eid-festival. Demand for Cash by banks and financial institutions hit the inter bank repo market. Besides, some banks' borrowing of foreign currency from inter bank money market contributed to the increase in both exchange and call money rates.

Spot foreign exchange market today is the most volatile and liquid of all financial markets in the world. The present paper addresses in details the efficiency, liquidity and risk seen by a trader, particularly concentrating on analysis of high frequency data for intraday trading. The main findings of the research include the fact that the market was found to be efficient in weak form, which in particular means that technical analysis cannot be successfully applied to systematically get an above average profit from speculative trades, but fundamental analysis may increase the expected income. Carry trades were not found to be consistently profitable or generating non negative profit. Spot foreign exchange market was proven to be extremely liquid, and its liquidity is being independent from regional trading sessions. We also found no evidence on the spot forex market of hot potato trading that usually follows news announcements. Finally, five different risk measures have shown that t...

Foreign exchange bureaus (FOREX Bureaus) were established and first licensed in January 1995 with the main objective of fostering competition and narrowing the exchange rate spread in the spot foreign exchange market. The FOREX bureaus are expected to engage in spot transactions and may facilitate domestic money transfer if appointed as agents. There is an appeal to the Government to introduce regulations to govern operations on online FOREX trading because the companies working online are being harassed and extorted by police for operating illegally whereas there is no law that guides their operations.

The purpose of this report is to review the evidence on the profitability of technical analysis. To achieve this purpose, the report comprehensively reviews survey, theoretical and empirical studies regarding technical trading strategies. We begin by overviewing survey studies that have directly investigated market participants’ experience and views on technical analysis. The survey literature indicates that technical analysis has been

The paper summarizes the current theory of how a floating exchange rate is determined, dividing the subject into what determines the steady state and what determines the transition to steady state. The inadequacies of this model are examined, and an alternative "behavioral" model, which recognizes that the foreign exchange market is populated by both fundamentalists and chartists is presented. It is argued that the main importance of understanding the foreign exchange market for development strategy is to permit a correct appraisal of the dangers of Dutch disease. Empirically it seems that from the standpoint of promoting development it is preferable to have a mildly undervalued rate. The paper concludes by examining implications for exchange rate regimes.

Over the past decade or so, the spread of electronic trading has brought about significant changes in the structure of the interbank foreign exchange markets and the relationship between foreign exchange dealers and their clients. This article looks at the way foreign exchange transactions are executed based on the BIS triennial survey data, and provides some quantitative estimates of the importance of electronic trading across transaction types, counterparties and economies. JEL classification: F31, G15.

This paper asks whether the 'leverage effect ' -as defined by Black (1976) for stock markets-is also a characteristic of foreign exchange markets. The study focuses on five Latin American emerging markets which have adopted a floating exchange regime. It finds that the response of exchange rates to volatility shocks is characterized by long memory and symmetry in most countries. The response is asymmetric only in Brazil and Peru. A possible explanation for this asymmetry is the 'fear of floating' that induces side-effects on interest rates and inflation, which the market considers 'bad news'. The opposite direction of the asymmetry may be explained by the particular characteristics of each economy. JEL: C10, C22, F31, G10, G15 in volatility meaning that a large return is followed by another large return and a small return is followed by another small return.

The introduction of electronic broker systems in the foreign exchange (FX) market at the end of 1992 changed the structure of the market and opened new channels for trading. We study the impact of these systems on dealer behavior, using a unique data set on the complete transactions of four FX dealers. We find some support for an information effect in incoming trades conducted directly (bilaterally). For trades executed by electronic broker systems we find no information effects, but we find that sequences of trades in cumulative flow may be infomative for prices. The new electronic systems have changed how dealers control their inventories by introducing new channels for this purpose. Dealers use outgoing trades on electronic brokers to control inventory. Comparing our results to previous research indicates that the introduction of electronic brokers have changed the behavior of dealers. for helpful comments, and Richard Lyons for stimulating discussions. Any errors are entirely our own. Updated versions can be downloaded from Dagfinn Rimes homepage at

This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of intraday technical trading strategies selected using two methodologies, a genetic program and an optimized linear forecasting model. When realistic transaction costs and trading hours are taken into account, we find no evidence of excess returns to the trading rules derived with either methodology. Thus, our results are consistent with market efficiency. We do, however, find that the trading rules discover some remarkably stable patterns in the data.

This article introduces the subject of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market, with emphasis on its importance for questions of market efficiency. "Technicians" view their craft, the study of price patterns, as exploiting traders' psychological regularities. The literature on technical analysis has established that simple technical trading rules on dollar exchange rates provided 15 years of positive, risk-adjusted returns during the 1970s and 80s before those returns were extinguished. More recently, more complex and less studied rules have produced more modest returns for a similar length of time. Conventional explanations that rely on risk adjustment and/or central bank intervention do not plausibly justify the observed excess returns from following simple technical trading rules. Psychological biases, however, could contribute to the profitability of these rules. We view the observed pattern of excess returns to technical trading rules as being consistent with an adaptive markets view of the world.

We study dealer behavior in the foreign exchange spot market using a detailed data set on the complete transactions of four dealers. There is strong support for an information effect in incoming trades. Although there is evidence that the information effect increases with trade size in direct bilateral trades, the direction of a trade seems to be more important. The

We examine the presence or absence of asymmetric volatility in the exchange rates of Australian dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR), British pound (GBP) and Japanese yen (JPY), all against US dollar. Our investigation is based on a variant of the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility model, using daily realized variance and return series from 1996 to 2004. We find that a depreciation against USD leads to significantly greater volatility than an appreciation for AUD and GBP, whereas the opposite is true for JPY. Relative to volatility on days following a positive one-standard-deviation return, volatility on days following a negative one-standard-deviation return is higher by 6.6% for AUD, 6.1% for GBP, and 21.2% for JPY. The realized volatility of EUR appears to be symmetric. These results are robust to the removal of jump component from realized volatility and the sub-samplings defined by structural-changes. The asymmetry in AUD, GBP and JPY appears to be embedded in the continuous ...

This paper assessed empirically Nigeria's agricultural export and economic welfare. Data used for the study were obtained from secondary sources, bulk of which was collected from institutional and national databases over 1990-2005 and were analyzed using multiple regression and growth rate analysis. The results showed that agricultural output, inflation, subsidy, exchange rate, food import and export were statistically significant at various risk levels and have major implications on the economic welfare of Nigeria. Economic welfare was found to have grown at rate of 2.9% over the period and would be expected to reach N20, 480.64 million in 2010. The study suggested that Nigerian government should adopt appropriate monetary policies to ensure stability in the foreign exchange market in view of the bizarre implications of fluctuations on economic welfare.

This paper relies on wavelet multiresolution analysis to capture the dependence structure of currency markets and reveal the complex dynamics across different timescales. It investigates the nature and direction of causal relationships among the most widely traded currencies denoted relative to the United States Dollar (USD), namely Euro (EUR), Great Britain Pound (GBP) and Japanese Yen (JPY). The timescale analysis

According to the finance literature, risks associated with various financial instruments and their corresponding market segments could be stochastic and evolve continuously over time, reflecting the developments in the macroeconomy and the financial system. This study undertakes an empirical analysis of risk pricing for India's financial markets using Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Empirical results provide various insights about the nature of risk pricing underlying money, credit, bonds, equity and foreign exchange market segments. Broadly, all market segments, excepting the corporate bond market, showed the ability to price risks over the sample period. International integration was found to accentuate risk pricing in the domestic stock market. From policy perspective, these findings may contribute to financial stability analysis and serve useful for monitoring financial markets and devising strategies for their further developments in the Indian context.

The behavior of quote arrivals and bid-ask spreads is examined for continuously recorded deutsche mark-dollar exchange rate data over time, across locations, and by market participants. A pattern in the intraday spread and intensity of market activity over time is uncovered and related to theories of trading patterns. Models for the conditional mean and variance of returns and bid-ask spreads indicate volatility clustering at high frequencies. The proposition that trading intensity has an independent effect on returns volatility is rejected, but holds for spread volatility. Conditional returns volatility is increasing in the size of the spread.