Business & Management Studies: An International Journal (BMIJ), 2022
The current study predicts the future course of ships passing through the İstanbul Strait. In thi... more The current study predicts the future course of ships passing through the İstanbul Strait. In this direction, considering that the world economy is the biggest factor in the demand for maritime transport, the relationship between the GDPs and trade volumes of the Black S ea s tates, a nd s hip traffic is analyzed using regression estimation in two separate models. The included countries are Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. Then, considering the growth forecasts published by the IMF for the relevant states, it was estimated how much an increase in traffic would be in 2026 compared to 2020. Considering the coefficients obtained from the two models, in 2026, the GDP model proposes a 20.02% increase, and the trade volume model proposes a 28.8% increase in ship tonnage passing the strait. These results reveal the importance and necessity of strategies and projects developed to regulate the rise in strait traffic.
Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Jun 20, 2018
Not: İsimler, akademik ünvan ve alfabetik sıra gözetilerek sıralanmıştır. 2016 yılı 2. sayıdan it... more Not: İsimler, akademik ünvan ve alfabetik sıra gözetilerek sıralanmıştır. 2016 yılı 2. sayıdan itibaren dergimiz uluslararası endekslerde taranmaktadır Dergide yayınlanan yazılardaki görüşler ve bu konudaki sorumluluk yazarlarına aittir. Yayınlanan eserlerde yer alan içerikler kaynak gösterilmeden kullanılamaz. All the opinions written in articles are under responsibilities of the authors. The published contents in the articles cannot be used without being cited. Makalenin on-line kopyasına erişmek için / To reach the on-line copy of article: http://dergipark.gov.tr/uiibd GEMİ İNŞA AKTİVİTELERİNİN NAVLUN ORANLARINA TEPKİSİ Sadık Özlen BAŞER* Abdullah AÇIK** ÖZET: Deniz taşımacılığının diğer çoğu piyasadan farklı ekonomik özellikleri mevcuttur. Bu özellikler piyasada sürekli döngüsel hareketlerin yaşanmasına ve yanlış kararlar alan işletmelerin piyasadan silinmesine neden olmaktadır. Bu döngülere talep tarafındaki değişmelerin dışında en büyük etkiyi arz tarafının kısa dönemde inelastik olması katkıda bulunmaktadır. Bunun nedeni de gemi inşa sürecinin 1-3 yıl arasında sürebilmesi, ve bugün alınan sipariş kararının etkilerinin inşa süreci bittiğinde piyasaya yansımasıdır. Bu doğrultuda yatırım kararını etkileyen ana unsur gelir olduğu için, navlun oranlarıyla tamamlanan gemi tonajı arasında gecikmeli bir ilişki olması muhakkaktır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, teoride yerleşmiş olan bu gecikmeli ilişkiyi ampirik olarak test ederek mevcut literature katkıda bulunmaktır. Navlun gelirlerinin bir temsilcisi olarak navlun fiyatlarını baz alan Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi (BKYE) kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan veri 1985 ve 2017 yıllarını kapsayan yıllık gözlemlerden oluşmaktadır. Navlun gelirleriyle tamamlanan tonaj arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmek için korelasyon, regresyon ve çapraz korelason yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda tonajın gelirlerdeki değişime 2 yıl sonra tepki verdiği ve değişkenler arasında pozitif yönlü bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Maritime market has a derived demand structure, so a pickup in the world's economy will bring... more Maritime market has a derived demand structure, so a pickup in the world's economy will bring vitality to the market. Demolition prices in buoyant market are mainly affected by two factors: first, the demand for steel increases; second, the number of ships sent for demolition decreases because even old and obsolete ships can be profitably operated in good market conditions. So these two factors causes demolition prices to increase in parallel with freight rates. In this context aim of this study is to contribute existing limited literature by examining the relationship between shipping earnings and demolition prices at the macro level. Shipping earnings are represented by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), and scrap prices are represented by India Demolition Prices. Correlation and regression analyzes are used as methods to determine the statistical relationships between the variables in the study. The result of both analyzes confirms the positive significant relationship between the v...
Gemi ve yuk sahipleri icin navlunlarda yasanan belirsizlik buyuk riskler olusturmaktadir. Navlunl... more Gemi ve yuk sahipleri icin navlunlarda yasanan belirsizlik buyuk riskler olusturmaktadir. Navlunlarin oynakligini etkileyen faktorlerin tespit edilmesi, belirsizlikten kaynakli risklerin azaltilmasinda buyuk onem arz etmektedir. Bu calismanin amaci, emtia fiyatlari ile Capesize piyasasindaki navlun fiyatlari arasindaki oynaklik yayilimini ve risk transferini varyansta nedensellik testi araciligiyla incelemektir. Calismada Capesize navlunlari icin 3 farkli tasimacilik rotasi icerilirken, emtia fiyatlari olarak ise kuru dokme yuk piyasasinda tasinan 3 ana yukun fiyatlari ele alinmaktadir. Veri seti 234 aylik gozlemlerden olusmaktadir ve Ocak 2000 ile Haziran 2019 donemi arasini kapsamaktadir. Elde edilen sonuclara gore hem demir cevheri hem de komur fiyatlarindan tum navlunlara anlamli nedensellikler tespit edilmisken, bugday fiyati ve navlunlar arasinda ise karsilikli anlamli nedensellikler tespit edilmistir.
Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi
Petrol fiyatlari, 2013 yilinin baslarinda yaklasik 120$ seviyelerinde seyretmekte iken, 2016 yili... more Petrol fiyatlari, 2013 yilinin baslarinda yaklasik 120$ seviyelerinde seyretmekte iken, 2016 yilinin baslarina gelindiginde 27$ seviyelerine kadar istikrarli bir sekilde dusus gostermistir. Bu dususun, ulkelerin petrol taleplerini arttirici bir etkisinin olacagi muhakkaktir. Uluslararasi petrol ticaretinin en onemli araclarindan biri olan denizyoluyla petrol tasimaciligi da, bu gelismelerden dogrudan etkilenmistir. Tanker piyasasinda kisa donemde arz egrisi inelastiktir ve ani talep artislari navlunlarda da ani yukselmelere neden olmaktadir. Piyasaya yeni tasima kapasitesinin girmesi yaklasik 3 yil surdugu icin, bu calismada yaklasik 3 yillik bir surec incelenmis ve kisa donemde petrol fiyatlarinin tanker piyasasina etkileri incelenmeye calisilmistir. Bu calismanin amaci mevcut teoriye, yakin donemdeki bu olaganustu dususun etkilerini inceleyerek katkida bulunmaktir. Calismada tanker piyasasi, navlun, yeni insa, ikinci el ve hurda piyasasi olarak bolumlendirilmis ve her alt piyasa ayri olarak incelenmistir. Calismanin yontemi olarak korelasyon analizi yontemi kullanilmistir. Bulunan bulgulara gore navlun piyasasi ve ikinci el piyasasi petrol fiyatlarinin dususunden cok olumlu yonde etkilenmislerdir. Ancak petrol fiyatlarinin dususunun yeni insa piyasasina etkileri beklenen duzeyde olmamistir. Hurda piyasasina olan etkileri incelendiginde ise, teorinin ve hipotezin tersi bir durum olarak pozitif yonde bir iliski saptanmistir.
In this study, the average speeds of container, dry bulk and crude oil
fleets, which are the ma... more In this study, the average speeds of container, dry bulk and crude oil fleets, which are the main market types in maritime transportation, are estimated and analyzed by using external factors such as freight rate, bunker price, fleet size and interest rate. Freight and interest rates affect the average speeds positively, while bunker price and fleet size negatively affect in accordance with the theoretical justifications. The freight rate mostly affects the average speed of the container fleet, while bunker price, fleet size and interest rate mostly affect the average speed of the crude oil fleet; the average speed of the dry bulk fleet is least affected by the fuel price and fleet size; and the average speed of the container fleet is least affected by the interest rate. In general, when the coefficient sizes between the factors are considered, the most effective factor in average speeds of the three market is their fleet size. Thus, new dimensions have been added to the empirical literature stuck in the framework of freight rate and bunker price.
Bu calismanin amaci, dunyada ilk 10’a giren ve hisse degerlerine ulasilabilen duzenli hat tasimac... more Bu calismanin amaci, dunyada ilk 10’a giren ve hisse degerlerine ulasilabilen duzenli hat tasimaciligi yapan 8 sirketin hisse degerlerinde etkin piyasa hipotezinin gecerli olup olmadiginin tespit edilmesidir. Bu dogrultuda, zayif formda etkin piyasa hipotezinin test edilmesi icin nadiren kullanilan ve guncel bir yontem olan Brock, Dechert ve Scheinkman (BDS) testi kullanilmaktadir. Calismada kullanilan veri seti haftalik bazda 400 gozlemden olusmaktadir ve 5 Kasim 2010 ve 10 Temmuz 2018 tarihleri arasini kapsamaktadir. Arastirmanin sonucuna gore tum duzenli hat tasimaciligi sirketlerinin hisse degerlerinde zayif formda etkin piyasa hipotezi gecerli degildir. Bu sonuc sirketlerin hisse degerlerinin gecmis degerleriyle baglantili oldugunu gostermektedir. Bu sonuclar, bu hisse senetleriyle gecmis veriler kullanilarak ve ticari stratejiler gelistirilerek olaganustu karlar elde edilebilmesinin mumkun oldugunu gostermektedir.
Bu calismada Capesize gemilerinin ikinci el degerleri ile bu gemilerin en temel yuku olan demir c... more Bu calismada Capesize gemilerinin ikinci el degerleri ile bu gemilerin en temel yuku olan demir cevheri fiyati arasindaki iliskinin incelenmesi amaclanmaktadir. Bu dogrultuda serilerin icerdikleri soklar arasindaki nedensellik iliskisini tespit etmek icin asimetrik nedensellik testi kullanilmaktadir. Bu test degiskenlerdeki pozitif ve negatif soklari ayristirarak dogrusal olmayan iliskileri tespit edebilmektedir. Piyasadaki ajanlarin gelen sokun (haberin) turune gore farkli tepkiler verebilecekleri dusunuldugunde, bu yontem onemli bir avantaj saglamaktadir. Calismada kullanilan veri seti 227 aylik gozlemden olusmaktadir ve Temmuz 1999 ile Mayis 2018 tarihleri arasini kapsamaktadir. Elde edilen sonuclara gore, demir cevheri fiyatindaki pozitif soklar 5 yasindaki Capesize gemisinin degerindeki pozitif soklarin nedenidir. Ayrica demir cevherindeki negatif soklar da 5 yasindaki Capesize gemi degerindeki negatif soklarin nedenidir. Bu sonuclarin literature farkli bir bakis acisi kazandir...
Sermaye yogun tabiatindan oturu, konteyner terminallerinin etkin yonetimi, yapilan yatirimlardan ... more Sermaye yogun tabiatindan oturu, konteyner terminallerinin etkin yonetimi, yapilan yatirimlardan optimal faydanin saglanmasi acisindan oldukca onemlidir. Her ne kadar konteyner terminallerine yapilan yatirimlar operasyonel yonetimin etkinligini artirmak amaciyla yapiliyorsa da, hedeflenen ellecleme hacimlerine erisilemedigi halde, yapilan yatirimlarin beklenen faydayi saglamamasi riski mevcuttur. Bu sebeple karar vericilerin yuk potansiyeli konusundaki gorusleri onemli olsa da, eldeki kaynaklarin bu goruslere uygun sekilde degerlendirilmesi de bir o kadar onemlidir. Bu yolda karar vericilere, etkinligi zedelemeden hedef ciktiyi belirleme konusunda yardimci olacak metodolojik araclara ihtiyac vardir. Bu calismada, super etkinlik veri zarflama analizi ve regresyon analizinin birlikte kullanilmasi ile konteyner terminallerinin etkin olmasi icin cikti seviyesini tespit eden bir model gelistirilmistir. Model, Turkiye’de 2016 yilinda 50000 TEU ustu konteyner elleclemesi olan 17 konteyner ...
Bu calismanin amaci kuru dokme ve tanker piyasalarindaki navlun seviyelerinin korsan saldirilarin... more Bu calismanin amaci kuru dokme ve tanker piyasalarindaki navlun seviyelerinin korsan saldirilarina etkisinin olup olmadiginin tespit edilmesidir. Calismadaki orneklem 2008 ve 2018 donemleri arasini kapsayan aylik dokme ve tanker navlun endekslerinden ve yillik korsan saldirisi degerlerinden olusmaktadir. Korsan saldirisi degiskeni analizleri daha isabetli sekilde yurutebilmek icin kubik donusum ile aylik veriye donusturulmustur. Sonuclar navlun oranlarinin korsan saldirilarinin nedeni oldugunu, navlun seviyelerindeki degismelerin hem dokme gemilerinde hem de tanker gemilerindeki korsan saldirilarini anlamli bir sekilde pozitif yonde etkiledigini ve dokme piyasasindaki navlun degisimlerinin korsan saldirilarini daha fazla acikladigini gostermektedir. Bu sonuclar, artan navlun gelirlerinin korsanlari saldirmalari icin daha fazla motive ettigine isaret etmektedir.
The aim of this study is to determine the causal relationship between the tonnage of containers h... more The aim of this study is to determine the causal relationship between the tonnage of containers handled at the Turkish ports and major exchange rates. Especially the recent extreme rise in exchange rates in the country increases the motivation of the study. There have been certain studies in the port literature and the results of which contradict one another. It is thought that this situation stems from the use of methods that generate constant coefficients based on the whole sample. In this respect, it is hoped that this study also makes an important contribution to the literature by its method. Time-varying causality method, which allows to determine the causal relationship in the course of time by dividing whole sample into sub-samples instead of examining the causal relationship based on whole sample, is used in the study. The dataset consists of 178 monthly observations and covers the dates between January 2004 and October 2018. According to the results of the analysis carried out in the study, in some periods of the sample, significant causal relations are determined from exchange rates to the volume of container handled at the Turkish ports. In particular, there is a significant causality to the container tonnage handled from the excessive exchange rate increase in recent periods. Due to the derived demand structure, the demand for the ports also varies with the volume of trade. Exchange rate is one of the most important factors of international trade, however dominance of the factors can change over time. It is seen that the conducted studies about the topic have contradictory results. It is thought that this situation stems from methodological constraints and the result of the time-varying causal relation obtained in this study provides a solution to all these contradictions.
Due to the significant impact of port performance on overall performance of global supply chains,... more Due to the significant impact of port performance on overall performance of global supply chains, enhancing the efficiency of terminal operations is an important task for ports to achieve a competitive edge. By acknowledging the role that efficiency plays in port competition, there are many research in the literature revealing the relative efficiencies of ports that are under investigation and providing managerial implications for the ones that are relatively inefficient. However, in many cases, the results obtained from the efficiency analysis can be misleading on its own as the ports may have different natures in terms of their size, cargo flow potentials or the environment that they are embedded in. Therefore, focusing on Turkish container ports, our study aims to classify the ports by taking both their physical attributes and efficiency scores into consideration. In order to determine the efficiency scores our study applies data envelopment analysis and the classification of the...
Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi
Dry bulk freight market is one of the most important indicators of global economic activity as it... more Dry bulk freight market is one of the most important indicators of global economic activity as it is the market for the transportation of raw materials that make up final products. So, the world economy is one of the most important demand factors for maritime transport. But supply in the maritime market is inelastic and the market cannot immediately respond to sudden demand growth and rates declines in the short run. Therefore, the sudden increases and decreases in the economy result in extraordinary income changes in the freight market. In this framework, the influence of economic growth on freight rates is an important issue to be examined. This study aims to contribute to the current literature by empirically examining the effect of economic growth on the dry bulk market. World GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was selected as a measure of economic activities, and BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was chosen as a measure of dry bulk freight rates. The dataset covers the years between 1985 and 2016 on annual basis and consists of 32 observations. The relationship between variables was tried to be determined by correlation and regression analysis. According to the results of the study, the positive relationship between the variables was determine and the BDI's response to GDP changes was found to be greater. These results confirm how risky the maritime market is.
Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi
Denizcilik piyasasi turetilmis bir talep yapisina saiptir, bu yuzden dunya ekonomisindeki bir can... more Denizcilik piyasasi turetilmis bir talep yapisina saiptir, bu yuzden dunya ekonomisindeki bir canlanma piyasaya hareket getirecektir. Canli piyasalardaki gemi sokum fiyatlari ana olarak iki faktorden etkilenir: ilk olarak celige olan talebin artmasindan, ikinci olarak da iyi piyasa kosullarinda eski ve kohne gemiler bile karli isletilebileceginden dolayi sokume gonderilen gemi sayisinin azalmasindan. Bu yuzden bu iki faktor hurda fiyatlarinin navlun oranlarina parallel bir sekilde artmasina neden olur. Bu cercevede bu calismanin amaci mevcut kisitli literature navlun gelirleriyle hurda fiyatlari arasindaki makro duzeyde inceleyerek katkida bulunmaktir. Navlun gelirleri Baltic Dry Index ile, ve gemi sokum fiyatlari Hindistan Hurda Fiyatlari ile temsil edilmistir. Degiskenler arasindaki istatistiksel iliskiyi belirlemek icin korelasyon ve regresyon analizleri kullanilmistir. Her iki analizin sonuclari da pozitif yonde anlamli bir iliskinin varligini dogrulamistir.
World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research, 2020
Although Capesize type vessels are specialised in iron ore transportation, they can also be used ... more Although Capesize type vessels are specialised in iron ore transportation, they can also be used extensively in coal transportation. Panamax type vessels can also increase their share of iron ore cargoes, depending on the density in the Capesize market. This situation partially complicates the relationship between them and increases the need for an integrated model of relationships. In this direction, we analysed the volatility and risk spillover between commodity prices and freight markets with causality in variance test and Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) model, and we revealed a hierarchical structure in a single model. According to results, source of the risk and volatility in freight markets is the commodity prices and these prices are independent of each other. The volatility in commodity prices first spreads to the Panamax freight market and then to the Capesize freight market. Therefore, the Capesize stands out as the most dependent market to volatility.
Marine fuel price differences of supply centers have a significant effect on operators’ budgets, ... more Marine fuel price differences of supply centers have a significant effect on operators’ budgets, and so are closely monitored by traders, charterers and shipowners. The aim of this study is to determine the volatility spillovers between the prices of the major fuel centers in the world and to form a hierarchical structure based on the influence and dependence powers of these centers. For this purpose, an integrated structure of causality in variance and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) methods are used. The data set used in this study includes marine gas oil (MGO) prices for 8 fuel centers used extensively in the world, namely: Fujairah, Hong Kong, Houston, Istanbul, New York, Piraeus, Rotterdam, and Singapore. This data consists of 782 daily observations covering a 3-year-period between 14.04.2017 and 13.04.2020. The ISM results reveal that these fuel centers lie at 6 different levels based on their driving and dependence powers, sources of price volatility in the market are ...
The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between the container freight rates an... more The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between the container freight rates and the volume of container handled at Turkish ports. To do this, causality in variance analysis is used which enables to determine the volatility spillover from global container freight indices, which are Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), to container volume handled in Turkish ports. The data set used in the study consists of 93 observations on a monthly basis covering the dates between November 2010 and July 2018. According to the results obtained, a significant volatility spillover has been only detected from the CCFI variable to the container volume. In addition, it has been found that the container volume in Turkish ports has reacted negatively to a positive shock in China container freight index. It is hoped that these results will help the port operators in the policy development stages by providing a leading indicator.
Business & Management Studies: An International Journal (BMIJ), 2022
The current study predicts the future course of ships passing through the İstanbul Strait. In thi... more The current study predicts the future course of ships passing through the İstanbul Strait. In this direction, considering that the world economy is the biggest factor in the demand for maritime transport, the relationship between the GDPs and trade volumes of the Black S ea s tates, a nd s hip traffic is analyzed using regression estimation in two separate models. The included countries are Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. Then, considering the growth forecasts published by the IMF for the relevant states, it was estimated how much an increase in traffic would be in 2026 compared to 2020. Considering the coefficients obtained from the two models, in 2026, the GDP model proposes a 20.02% increase, and the trade volume model proposes a 28.8% increase in ship tonnage passing the strait. These results reveal the importance and necessity of strategies and projects developed to regulate the rise in strait traffic.
Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Jun 20, 2018
Not: İsimler, akademik ünvan ve alfabetik sıra gözetilerek sıralanmıştır. 2016 yılı 2. sayıdan it... more Not: İsimler, akademik ünvan ve alfabetik sıra gözetilerek sıralanmıştır. 2016 yılı 2. sayıdan itibaren dergimiz uluslararası endekslerde taranmaktadır Dergide yayınlanan yazılardaki görüşler ve bu konudaki sorumluluk yazarlarına aittir. Yayınlanan eserlerde yer alan içerikler kaynak gösterilmeden kullanılamaz. All the opinions written in articles are under responsibilities of the authors. The published contents in the articles cannot be used without being cited. Makalenin on-line kopyasına erişmek için / To reach the on-line copy of article: http://dergipark.gov.tr/uiibd GEMİ İNŞA AKTİVİTELERİNİN NAVLUN ORANLARINA TEPKİSİ Sadık Özlen BAŞER* Abdullah AÇIK** ÖZET: Deniz taşımacılığının diğer çoğu piyasadan farklı ekonomik özellikleri mevcuttur. Bu özellikler piyasada sürekli döngüsel hareketlerin yaşanmasına ve yanlış kararlar alan işletmelerin piyasadan silinmesine neden olmaktadır. Bu döngülere talep tarafındaki değişmelerin dışında en büyük etkiyi arz tarafının kısa dönemde inelastik olması katkıda bulunmaktadır. Bunun nedeni de gemi inşa sürecinin 1-3 yıl arasında sürebilmesi, ve bugün alınan sipariş kararının etkilerinin inşa süreci bittiğinde piyasaya yansımasıdır. Bu doğrultuda yatırım kararını etkileyen ana unsur gelir olduğu için, navlun oranlarıyla tamamlanan gemi tonajı arasında gecikmeli bir ilişki olması muhakkaktır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, teoride yerleşmiş olan bu gecikmeli ilişkiyi ampirik olarak test ederek mevcut literature katkıda bulunmaktır. Navlun gelirlerinin bir temsilcisi olarak navlun fiyatlarını baz alan Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi (BKYE) kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan veri 1985 ve 2017 yıllarını kapsayan yıllık gözlemlerden oluşmaktadır. Navlun gelirleriyle tamamlanan tonaj arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmek için korelasyon, regresyon ve çapraz korelason yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda tonajın gelirlerdeki değişime 2 yıl sonra tepki verdiği ve değişkenler arasında pozitif yönlü bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Maritime market has a derived demand structure, so a pickup in the world's economy will bring... more Maritime market has a derived demand structure, so a pickup in the world's economy will bring vitality to the market. Demolition prices in buoyant market are mainly affected by two factors: first, the demand for steel increases; second, the number of ships sent for demolition decreases because even old and obsolete ships can be profitably operated in good market conditions. So these two factors causes demolition prices to increase in parallel with freight rates. In this context aim of this study is to contribute existing limited literature by examining the relationship between shipping earnings and demolition prices at the macro level. Shipping earnings are represented by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), and scrap prices are represented by India Demolition Prices. Correlation and regression analyzes are used as methods to determine the statistical relationships between the variables in the study. The result of both analyzes confirms the positive significant relationship between the v...
Gemi ve yuk sahipleri icin navlunlarda yasanan belirsizlik buyuk riskler olusturmaktadir. Navlunl... more Gemi ve yuk sahipleri icin navlunlarda yasanan belirsizlik buyuk riskler olusturmaktadir. Navlunlarin oynakligini etkileyen faktorlerin tespit edilmesi, belirsizlikten kaynakli risklerin azaltilmasinda buyuk onem arz etmektedir. Bu calismanin amaci, emtia fiyatlari ile Capesize piyasasindaki navlun fiyatlari arasindaki oynaklik yayilimini ve risk transferini varyansta nedensellik testi araciligiyla incelemektir. Calismada Capesize navlunlari icin 3 farkli tasimacilik rotasi icerilirken, emtia fiyatlari olarak ise kuru dokme yuk piyasasinda tasinan 3 ana yukun fiyatlari ele alinmaktadir. Veri seti 234 aylik gozlemlerden olusmaktadir ve Ocak 2000 ile Haziran 2019 donemi arasini kapsamaktadir. Elde edilen sonuclara gore hem demir cevheri hem de komur fiyatlarindan tum navlunlara anlamli nedensellikler tespit edilmisken, bugday fiyati ve navlunlar arasinda ise karsilikli anlamli nedensellikler tespit edilmistir.
Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi
Petrol fiyatlari, 2013 yilinin baslarinda yaklasik 120$ seviyelerinde seyretmekte iken, 2016 yili... more Petrol fiyatlari, 2013 yilinin baslarinda yaklasik 120$ seviyelerinde seyretmekte iken, 2016 yilinin baslarina gelindiginde 27$ seviyelerine kadar istikrarli bir sekilde dusus gostermistir. Bu dususun, ulkelerin petrol taleplerini arttirici bir etkisinin olacagi muhakkaktir. Uluslararasi petrol ticaretinin en onemli araclarindan biri olan denizyoluyla petrol tasimaciligi da, bu gelismelerden dogrudan etkilenmistir. Tanker piyasasinda kisa donemde arz egrisi inelastiktir ve ani talep artislari navlunlarda da ani yukselmelere neden olmaktadir. Piyasaya yeni tasima kapasitesinin girmesi yaklasik 3 yil surdugu icin, bu calismada yaklasik 3 yillik bir surec incelenmis ve kisa donemde petrol fiyatlarinin tanker piyasasina etkileri incelenmeye calisilmistir. Bu calismanin amaci mevcut teoriye, yakin donemdeki bu olaganustu dususun etkilerini inceleyerek katkida bulunmaktir. Calismada tanker piyasasi, navlun, yeni insa, ikinci el ve hurda piyasasi olarak bolumlendirilmis ve her alt piyasa ayri olarak incelenmistir. Calismanin yontemi olarak korelasyon analizi yontemi kullanilmistir. Bulunan bulgulara gore navlun piyasasi ve ikinci el piyasasi petrol fiyatlarinin dususunden cok olumlu yonde etkilenmislerdir. Ancak petrol fiyatlarinin dususunun yeni insa piyasasina etkileri beklenen duzeyde olmamistir. Hurda piyasasina olan etkileri incelendiginde ise, teorinin ve hipotezin tersi bir durum olarak pozitif yonde bir iliski saptanmistir.
In this study, the average speeds of container, dry bulk and crude oil
fleets, which are the ma... more In this study, the average speeds of container, dry bulk and crude oil fleets, which are the main market types in maritime transportation, are estimated and analyzed by using external factors such as freight rate, bunker price, fleet size and interest rate. Freight and interest rates affect the average speeds positively, while bunker price and fleet size negatively affect in accordance with the theoretical justifications. The freight rate mostly affects the average speed of the container fleet, while bunker price, fleet size and interest rate mostly affect the average speed of the crude oil fleet; the average speed of the dry bulk fleet is least affected by the fuel price and fleet size; and the average speed of the container fleet is least affected by the interest rate. In general, when the coefficient sizes between the factors are considered, the most effective factor in average speeds of the three market is their fleet size. Thus, new dimensions have been added to the empirical literature stuck in the framework of freight rate and bunker price.
Bu calismanin amaci, dunyada ilk 10’a giren ve hisse degerlerine ulasilabilen duzenli hat tasimac... more Bu calismanin amaci, dunyada ilk 10’a giren ve hisse degerlerine ulasilabilen duzenli hat tasimaciligi yapan 8 sirketin hisse degerlerinde etkin piyasa hipotezinin gecerli olup olmadiginin tespit edilmesidir. Bu dogrultuda, zayif formda etkin piyasa hipotezinin test edilmesi icin nadiren kullanilan ve guncel bir yontem olan Brock, Dechert ve Scheinkman (BDS) testi kullanilmaktadir. Calismada kullanilan veri seti haftalik bazda 400 gozlemden olusmaktadir ve 5 Kasim 2010 ve 10 Temmuz 2018 tarihleri arasini kapsamaktadir. Arastirmanin sonucuna gore tum duzenli hat tasimaciligi sirketlerinin hisse degerlerinde zayif formda etkin piyasa hipotezi gecerli degildir. Bu sonuc sirketlerin hisse degerlerinin gecmis degerleriyle baglantili oldugunu gostermektedir. Bu sonuclar, bu hisse senetleriyle gecmis veriler kullanilarak ve ticari stratejiler gelistirilerek olaganustu karlar elde edilebilmesinin mumkun oldugunu gostermektedir.
Bu calismada Capesize gemilerinin ikinci el degerleri ile bu gemilerin en temel yuku olan demir c... more Bu calismada Capesize gemilerinin ikinci el degerleri ile bu gemilerin en temel yuku olan demir cevheri fiyati arasindaki iliskinin incelenmesi amaclanmaktadir. Bu dogrultuda serilerin icerdikleri soklar arasindaki nedensellik iliskisini tespit etmek icin asimetrik nedensellik testi kullanilmaktadir. Bu test degiskenlerdeki pozitif ve negatif soklari ayristirarak dogrusal olmayan iliskileri tespit edebilmektedir. Piyasadaki ajanlarin gelen sokun (haberin) turune gore farkli tepkiler verebilecekleri dusunuldugunde, bu yontem onemli bir avantaj saglamaktadir. Calismada kullanilan veri seti 227 aylik gozlemden olusmaktadir ve Temmuz 1999 ile Mayis 2018 tarihleri arasini kapsamaktadir. Elde edilen sonuclara gore, demir cevheri fiyatindaki pozitif soklar 5 yasindaki Capesize gemisinin degerindeki pozitif soklarin nedenidir. Ayrica demir cevherindeki negatif soklar da 5 yasindaki Capesize gemi degerindeki negatif soklarin nedenidir. Bu sonuclarin literature farkli bir bakis acisi kazandir...
Sermaye yogun tabiatindan oturu, konteyner terminallerinin etkin yonetimi, yapilan yatirimlardan ... more Sermaye yogun tabiatindan oturu, konteyner terminallerinin etkin yonetimi, yapilan yatirimlardan optimal faydanin saglanmasi acisindan oldukca onemlidir. Her ne kadar konteyner terminallerine yapilan yatirimlar operasyonel yonetimin etkinligini artirmak amaciyla yapiliyorsa da, hedeflenen ellecleme hacimlerine erisilemedigi halde, yapilan yatirimlarin beklenen faydayi saglamamasi riski mevcuttur. Bu sebeple karar vericilerin yuk potansiyeli konusundaki gorusleri onemli olsa da, eldeki kaynaklarin bu goruslere uygun sekilde degerlendirilmesi de bir o kadar onemlidir. Bu yolda karar vericilere, etkinligi zedelemeden hedef ciktiyi belirleme konusunda yardimci olacak metodolojik araclara ihtiyac vardir. Bu calismada, super etkinlik veri zarflama analizi ve regresyon analizinin birlikte kullanilmasi ile konteyner terminallerinin etkin olmasi icin cikti seviyesini tespit eden bir model gelistirilmistir. Model, Turkiye’de 2016 yilinda 50000 TEU ustu konteyner elleclemesi olan 17 konteyner ...
Bu calismanin amaci kuru dokme ve tanker piyasalarindaki navlun seviyelerinin korsan saldirilarin... more Bu calismanin amaci kuru dokme ve tanker piyasalarindaki navlun seviyelerinin korsan saldirilarina etkisinin olup olmadiginin tespit edilmesidir. Calismadaki orneklem 2008 ve 2018 donemleri arasini kapsayan aylik dokme ve tanker navlun endekslerinden ve yillik korsan saldirisi degerlerinden olusmaktadir. Korsan saldirisi degiskeni analizleri daha isabetli sekilde yurutebilmek icin kubik donusum ile aylik veriye donusturulmustur. Sonuclar navlun oranlarinin korsan saldirilarinin nedeni oldugunu, navlun seviyelerindeki degismelerin hem dokme gemilerinde hem de tanker gemilerindeki korsan saldirilarini anlamli bir sekilde pozitif yonde etkiledigini ve dokme piyasasindaki navlun degisimlerinin korsan saldirilarini daha fazla acikladigini gostermektedir. Bu sonuclar, artan navlun gelirlerinin korsanlari saldirmalari icin daha fazla motive ettigine isaret etmektedir.
The aim of this study is to determine the causal relationship between the tonnage of containers h... more The aim of this study is to determine the causal relationship between the tonnage of containers handled at the Turkish ports and major exchange rates. Especially the recent extreme rise in exchange rates in the country increases the motivation of the study. There have been certain studies in the port literature and the results of which contradict one another. It is thought that this situation stems from the use of methods that generate constant coefficients based on the whole sample. In this respect, it is hoped that this study also makes an important contribution to the literature by its method. Time-varying causality method, which allows to determine the causal relationship in the course of time by dividing whole sample into sub-samples instead of examining the causal relationship based on whole sample, is used in the study. The dataset consists of 178 monthly observations and covers the dates between January 2004 and October 2018. According to the results of the analysis carried out in the study, in some periods of the sample, significant causal relations are determined from exchange rates to the volume of container handled at the Turkish ports. In particular, there is a significant causality to the container tonnage handled from the excessive exchange rate increase in recent periods. Due to the derived demand structure, the demand for the ports also varies with the volume of trade. Exchange rate is one of the most important factors of international trade, however dominance of the factors can change over time. It is seen that the conducted studies about the topic have contradictory results. It is thought that this situation stems from methodological constraints and the result of the time-varying causal relation obtained in this study provides a solution to all these contradictions.
Due to the significant impact of port performance on overall performance of global supply chains,... more Due to the significant impact of port performance on overall performance of global supply chains, enhancing the efficiency of terminal operations is an important task for ports to achieve a competitive edge. By acknowledging the role that efficiency plays in port competition, there are many research in the literature revealing the relative efficiencies of ports that are under investigation and providing managerial implications for the ones that are relatively inefficient. However, in many cases, the results obtained from the efficiency analysis can be misleading on its own as the ports may have different natures in terms of their size, cargo flow potentials or the environment that they are embedded in. Therefore, focusing on Turkish container ports, our study aims to classify the ports by taking both their physical attributes and efficiency scores into consideration. In order to determine the efficiency scores our study applies data envelopment analysis and the classification of the...
Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi
Dry bulk freight market is one of the most important indicators of global economic activity as it... more Dry bulk freight market is one of the most important indicators of global economic activity as it is the market for the transportation of raw materials that make up final products. So, the world economy is one of the most important demand factors for maritime transport. But supply in the maritime market is inelastic and the market cannot immediately respond to sudden demand growth and rates declines in the short run. Therefore, the sudden increases and decreases in the economy result in extraordinary income changes in the freight market. In this framework, the influence of economic growth on freight rates is an important issue to be examined. This study aims to contribute to the current literature by empirically examining the effect of economic growth on the dry bulk market. World GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was selected as a measure of economic activities, and BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was chosen as a measure of dry bulk freight rates. The dataset covers the years between 1985 and 2016 on annual basis and consists of 32 observations. The relationship between variables was tried to be determined by correlation and regression analysis. According to the results of the study, the positive relationship between the variables was determine and the BDI's response to GDP changes was found to be greater. These results confirm how risky the maritime market is.
Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi
Denizcilik piyasasi turetilmis bir talep yapisina saiptir, bu yuzden dunya ekonomisindeki bir can... more Denizcilik piyasasi turetilmis bir talep yapisina saiptir, bu yuzden dunya ekonomisindeki bir canlanma piyasaya hareket getirecektir. Canli piyasalardaki gemi sokum fiyatlari ana olarak iki faktorden etkilenir: ilk olarak celige olan talebin artmasindan, ikinci olarak da iyi piyasa kosullarinda eski ve kohne gemiler bile karli isletilebileceginden dolayi sokume gonderilen gemi sayisinin azalmasindan. Bu yuzden bu iki faktor hurda fiyatlarinin navlun oranlarina parallel bir sekilde artmasina neden olur. Bu cercevede bu calismanin amaci mevcut kisitli literature navlun gelirleriyle hurda fiyatlari arasindaki makro duzeyde inceleyerek katkida bulunmaktir. Navlun gelirleri Baltic Dry Index ile, ve gemi sokum fiyatlari Hindistan Hurda Fiyatlari ile temsil edilmistir. Degiskenler arasindaki istatistiksel iliskiyi belirlemek icin korelasyon ve regresyon analizleri kullanilmistir. Her iki analizin sonuclari da pozitif yonde anlamli bir iliskinin varligini dogrulamistir.
World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research, 2020
Although Capesize type vessels are specialised in iron ore transportation, they can also be used ... more Although Capesize type vessels are specialised in iron ore transportation, they can also be used extensively in coal transportation. Panamax type vessels can also increase their share of iron ore cargoes, depending on the density in the Capesize market. This situation partially complicates the relationship between them and increases the need for an integrated model of relationships. In this direction, we analysed the volatility and risk spillover between commodity prices and freight markets with causality in variance test and Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) model, and we revealed a hierarchical structure in a single model. According to results, source of the risk and volatility in freight markets is the commodity prices and these prices are independent of each other. The volatility in commodity prices first spreads to the Panamax freight market and then to the Capesize freight market. Therefore, the Capesize stands out as the most dependent market to volatility.
Marine fuel price differences of supply centers have a significant effect on operators’ budgets, ... more Marine fuel price differences of supply centers have a significant effect on operators’ budgets, and so are closely monitored by traders, charterers and shipowners. The aim of this study is to determine the volatility spillovers between the prices of the major fuel centers in the world and to form a hierarchical structure based on the influence and dependence powers of these centers. For this purpose, an integrated structure of causality in variance and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) methods are used. The data set used in this study includes marine gas oil (MGO) prices for 8 fuel centers used extensively in the world, namely: Fujairah, Hong Kong, Houston, Istanbul, New York, Piraeus, Rotterdam, and Singapore. This data consists of 782 daily observations covering a 3-year-period between 14.04.2017 and 13.04.2020. The ISM results reveal that these fuel centers lie at 6 different levels based on their driving and dependence powers, sources of price volatility in the market are ...
The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between the container freight rates an... more The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between the container freight rates and the volume of container handled at Turkish ports. To do this, causality in variance analysis is used which enables to determine the volatility spillover from global container freight indices, which are Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), to container volume handled in Turkish ports. The data set used in the study consists of 93 observations on a monthly basis covering the dates between November 2010 and July 2018. According to the results obtained, a significant volatility spillover has been only detected from the CCFI variable to the container volume. In addition, it has been found that the container volume in Turkish ports has reacted negatively to a positive shock in China container freight index. It is hoped that these results will help the port operators in the policy development stages by providing a leading indicator.
IV. International Caucasus Central Asia Foreign Trade and Logistics Congress, 2018
The maritime sector is a capital intensive sector both in terms of liner and tramp shipping. Unli... more The maritime sector is a capital intensive sector both in terms of liner and tramp shipping. Unlike liner market, the tramp market is similar to that of the perfect competition market, so entry to and exit from the market is relatively easy. This relative ease allows more players to involve in the market and therefore large fluctuations have often occurred in the market. This situation causes inefficiency especially in dry bulk transportation. In this context, the purpose of this study is to determine the historical efficiency of the world dry bulk cargo transportation. The data set used in the study consists of annual observations covering the years 1980 and 2016. Both the input-oriented and output-oriented CCR models of data envelopment analysis (DEA) were used to determine efficiency of world seaborne dry bulk transportation. The projection values of the analysis were also used for interpretation of the results. As inputs, the world dry bulk cargo fleet and world gross domestic products (GDP) variables were selected, and the total amount of major dry bulk cargo transported in the world was selected as the output. According to the results of the study, it was found that major bulk cargo transportation in the world was efficient between 2004 and 2008, after which the efficiency decreased due to the increasing fleet and the slow economic growth. In addition, in recent years, the efficiency is at 86% level, and according to the projection values, it is necessary to increase the amount of cargo carried by 16% or to decrease dry bulk fleet by 14% in order for dry bulk transportation to be efficient.
VI. International Caucasus Central Asia Foreign Trade and Logistics Congress, 2018
Fleet productivity generally increases in two directions. First one is achieved by increasing the... more Fleet productivity generally increases in two directions. First one is achieved by increasing the speed of the vessels in the market conditions where high freight rates are observed, this causes an increase on the amount of cargo per unit capacity they carry at the unit time. The other one is related to the short run inelastic supply curve in shipping because of the time to build effect. When the demand increases occur, the amount of cargo carried per unit capacity increases since increase in the supply is limited in the short run. In this context, it is aimed to determine the relationship between freight rates and the amount of cargo carried per unit capacity in this study. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was selected as a measure of the freight rates, and the tonnage carried per DWT from the portion of the total cargo tonnage carried by the sea to the dry cargo fleet capacity during that year was selected as an indicator of the fleet productivity. The dataset used in the study consists of annual observations covering the period from 1985 to 2016. Correlation and regression methods were used to determine the econometric relationship between the variables. As a result of the study, a significant strong relationship was found between freight rates and productivity in the positive direction. According to the developed model, a 10% increase in the freight rate causes an increase of about 0.9% in fleet productivity.
International Congress of Management, Economy and Policy, 2019
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a composite index showing the freight levels of ship types used in the ... more Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a composite index showing the freight levels of ship types used in the transportation of raw materials that form the basis of the world economy. Since the maritime market has a derived demand structure, the demand for maritime market is mainly affected by the demand for these raw materials. In this respect, the upward trend in freight rates may also reflect the upward trend in demand for commodities, which are the raw materials for the global industry. With this structure, the BDI variable is an important indicator followed by most economists and investors. The aim of this study is to determine the econometric relationship between the BDI value, which is accepted by many researchers as one of the leading indicators of the global economy, and the search rate of it on Google, one of the most popular search engines in the world. In this respect, asymmetric causality test is used to determine the causality relationship between the variables by separating the shocks they contain as positive and negative. The data set used in the study covers the period between January 2004 and February 2019 and consists of 182 monthly observations. According to the results obtained, only one significant causal relationship from the negative shocks in the BDI variable to the positive shocks in the rate of search is determined. These results indicate that BDI is searched more when the trend is declining.
International Congress of Management, Economy and Policy, 2019
While the freight rate in the market is an income item for ship owners, it is a cost item for shi... more While the freight rate in the market is an income item for ship owners, it is a cost item for shippers. In this respect, freight rates have a dynamic structure since they are both influenced by demand and affect demand. Freight rates are also affected by some factors such as oil price, ship supply and amount of ship set to the demolition. This situation makes it difficult to examine them with linear methods. In this study, it is aimed to determine whether changes in the amount of export and import cargo handled in Turkish ports have an impact on freight rates in the ISTFIX region which consists of vessels mainly operated around Turkey. The dataset used in this study covers the periods between January 2008 and July 2018 and consists of 127 monthly observations. According to the results obtained using nonlinear causality analysis which allows to examine the lagged causality relationships between the variables, the bidirectional causality relations between the variables are determined. While there are continuous causalities from the export and import tonnages to ISTFIX index in all the lags, the causality relationship from ISTFIX index to tonnages occurs only in some lags.
Although it has recently come to the forefront with trade wars, most of the world trade has been ... more Although it has recently come to the forefront with trade wars, most of the world trade has been carried out between the US and China, and maritime transport plays an important role in this interaction. Trade between countries and therefore maritime transport can be differentiated over time by being directly affected by several macro factors. However, since it is very difficult to examine the effect of macro variables on trade by modeling all of these variables and it requires complex modeling, it is possible to use the analysis of the relations with the indicators that include the information of macro factors. One of the most widely used indicators is stock markets in countries. This study aims to determine the bidirectional frequency-domain causality relationship between the New York Stock Exchange, one of the largest US stock exchanges, and container freight between the US and China by taking advantage of the fact that stock exchanges often contain the timely information about current macro conditions. This method has been developed by Breitung and Candelon (2006) and enables causality analysis on different frequencies such as long-term, mid-term and short-term. The data set used in the study consists of 105 observations on a weekly basis and covers the dates between July 2017 and July 2019. According to the results, only causality relationship has been determined from New York Stock Exchange to USA West Coast-China / East Asia route. This shows that developments in the US stock market and therefore macro changes in the country affect the container freight rates from the US to China. However, no causal relationship has been identified to the container freight rates from China to the US.
2. Business and Organization Research Conference, 2019
The aim of this study is to investigate the asymmetric causality from iron ore price to freight m... more The aim of this study is to investigate the asymmetric causality from iron ore price to freight market through Capesize rates by considering the possible impact of 2008 global economic crisis. The study uses a monthly data set of 233 observations covering the period between January 2000 and June 2019. According to the structural break tests, a break has been detected in June 2008 and the analyzes have been applied for two separate periods as pre-crisis and post-crisis in addition to the whole period. The results for the whole period have revealed that positive shocks in iron ore price cause negative shocks and negative shocks cause both negative and positive shocks. The divided sample results have revealed that positive shocks in the iron ore prices are causes of the positive shocks in the freight rates in the pre-crisis period, while negative shocks in the ore prices are causes of the negative shocks in the freight rates, and negative shocks are the causes positive shocks in the post-crisis period. These results suggest that the impact of commodity prices on the freight market before and after the crisis may vary.
İzmir International Congress on Economics and Administrative Sciences, 2018
Despite technological advances, dependence on fossil fuels in the world is still ongoing and does... more Despite technological advances, dependence on fossil fuels in the world is still ongoing and does not seem to be ending soon. These resources have been randomly distributed around the world, and a great deal of their inter-country trade is carried out by sea. One of the most important of these sources is crude oil, which constitutes about 18% of the tonnage of the transport made in 2016. For this reason the crude oil transportation sector is very large and includes too many players. Also the sector is a capital intensive sector since it is carried out with huge vessels. For all these reasons, it is vital for shipping investors to know the structure and mechanics of freight rates, which is the main motivation and income for transportation activities. Undoubtedly, fluctuations in tanker freight rates are inevitably affected by fluctuations in oil prices. The impact of these fluctuations may theoretically be in two ways; first, as the demand for oil is affected by its price, the demand for its transport may be directly affected, and this may cause fluctuations in freight rates; secondly, as bunker cost is the biggest cost item in transportation activities, fuel prices may cause fluctuations in freight rates. For instance, if the price of oil increases, shipowners demand higher freights in the face of increased operation costs. In this context, the aim of this study is to determine the impact of positive or negative shocks of commodity price on the transportation sector by examining the asymmetric causality from crude oil price to freight rates in the tanker market. The data set consisting of 239 observations on a monthly basis covering August 1998 and June 2018 was used in the study. Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI), which is calculated based on certain routes in world crude oil transportation, and WTI spot crude oil price variables were used to determine asymmetric causality between oil price and freight rates. The asymmetric causality test developed by Hatemi-J (2012), enabling examination of causality by separating negative and positive shocks, was used. The results showed that positive shocks in crude oil prices are the cause of positive shocks in the freight rates in the tanker market. It is also determined that negative shocks in oil prices are the cause of negative shocks in the freight rates. According to these results, it can be said that cost-driven shocks are more influential than demand-driven shocks in the covered period.
İzmir International Congress on Economics and Administrative Sciences, 2018
Panamax is term for the size limits for ships travelling through the Panama Canal. These kind of ... more Panamax is term for the size limits for ships travelling through the Panama Canal. These kind of vessels are one of the common ship types used in the world dry bulk trade. They are generally used for raw material transportation such as grain, coal and iron ore. However, as is the case in the maritime market, the market in which these vessels are operated is also very volatile. Freight rates and asset values can change dramatically even in the very short run. In maritime markets, it is also possible to obtain huge revenues by not only transporting cargoes but also selling the ships when the time comes. Making this schedule is not easy, but one of the most important factors determining ship values is freight rates. Therefore, knowing the effects of changes in freight rates on the probability of peaking at asset prices can be a very important guide to shipping investors. In this direction, the aim of this study is to determine the price bubbles in the second hand Panamax market and to determine the impact of freight rates on the probability of the formation of these bubbles, if any. Bubble times in the secondhand market were determined using the generalized sup ADF method proposed by Philips et al. (2012) and the effect of freight rates on the probability of occurrence of these bubbles was calculated using the logistic regression method. The data set consists of 227 observations on a monthly basis covering between July 1999 and May 2018. The Baltic Panamax Index calculated based on the incomes of the Panamax vessels in a specific routes and the ship values of 5 years old these vessels were used as variables. According to the results of the research, the existence of 6 price bubbles in the secondhand market were identified and it was also determined that the freight rates are influential in the formation of these bubbles. The marginal effects obtained as a result of the logistic regression revealed that 1000 point increase in index increases the likelihood of price bubble formation by 11%. It is believed that these results guide the maritime stakeholders on the timing of sale and purchase decisions.
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Papers by Abdullah Açık
traffic is analyzed using regression estimation in two separate models. The included countries are Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. Then, considering the growth forecasts published by the IMF for the relevant states, it was estimated how much an increase in traffic would be in 2026 compared to 2020. Considering the coefficients obtained from the two models, in 2026, the GDP model proposes a 20.02% increase, and the trade volume model proposes a 28.8% increase in
ship tonnage passing the strait. These results reveal the importance and necessity of strategies and projects developed to regulate the rise in strait traffic.
fleets, which are the main market types in maritime transportation, are estimated and analyzed by using external factors such as freight rate, bunker price, fleet size and interest rate. Freight and interest rates affect the average speeds positively, while bunker price and fleet size negatively affect in accordance with the theoretical justifications. The freight rate mostly affects the average speed of the container fleet, while bunker price, fleet size and interest rate mostly affect the average speed of the crude oil fleet; the average speed of the dry bulk fleet is least affected by the fuel price and fleet size; and the average speed of the container fleet is least affected by the interest rate. In general, when the coefficient sizes between the factors are considered, the most effective factor in average speeds of the three market is their fleet size. Thus, new dimensions have been added to the empirical literature stuck in the framework of freight rate and bunker price.
traffic is analyzed using regression estimation in two separate models. The included countries are Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. Then, considering the growth forecasts published by the IMF for the relevant states, it was estimated how much an increase in traffic would be in 2026 compared to 2020. Considering the coefficients obtained from the two models, in 2026, the GDP model proposes a 20.02% increase, and the trade volume model proposes a 28.8% increase in
ship tonnage passing the strait. These results reveal the importance and necessity of strategies and projects developed to regulate the rise in strait traffic.
fleets, which are the main market types in maritime transportation, are estimated and analyzed by using external factors such as freight rate, bunker price, fleet size and interest rate. Freight and interest rates affect the average speeds positively, while bunker price and fleet size negatively affect in accordance with the theoretical justifications. The freight rate mostly affects the average speed of the container fleet, while bunker price, fleet size and interest rate mostly affect the average speed of the crude oil fleet; the average speed of the dry bulk fleet is least affected by the fuel price and fleet size; and the average speed of the container fleet is least affected by the interest rate. In general, when the coefficient sizes between the factors are considered, the most effective factor in average speeds of the three market is their fleet size. Thus, new dimensions have been added to the empirical literature stuck in the framework of freight rate and bunker price.