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Otaviano Canuto

World Bank, Board of Executive Directors, Executive Director

International Monetary Fund, Board of Executive Directors, Executive Director

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Otaviano Canuto, based in Washington, D.C, is a senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings Institution, an adjunct assistant professor at SIPA – Columbia University, a professorial lecturer of international affairs at the Elliott School of International Affairs - George Washington University, and principal of the Center for Macroeconomics and Development. He is a former vice-president and a former executive director at the World Bank, a former executive director at the International Monetary Fund and a former vice-president at the Inter-American Development Bank. He is also a former deputy minister for international affairs at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance and a former professor of economics at University of São Paulo and University of Campinas, Brazil.

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Videos by Otaviano Canuto

EMERGING MARKETS: ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL FRAGMENTATION

AMUNDI WORLD INVESTMENT FORUM June 9th, 2022 Paris, Carrousel du Louvre Otaviano Canuto, Seni... more

84 views

Bridging private finance and green infrastructure

The contrast between the scarcity of investments in infrastructure – particularly in non-advanced... more The contrast between the scarcity of investments in infrastructure – particularly in non-advanced economies – and the excess of savings invested in liquid and low-return assets in the global economy deserves to be confronted. Greening infrastructure in non-advanced economies would benefit from being able to attract greenbacks into the business. Building a bridge between private finance and (green) infrastructure would need the development of pipeline of projects with homogeneous regulations and standards, as well as with minimum mismatch between risks and comfort of private investors to manage them along project stages.
https://youtu.be/pkTUjjUKoAs

67 views

Globalization and technological learning

Cross-border technological diffusion has contributed to rising domestic productivity levels in ad... more Cross-border technological diffusion has contributed to rising domestic productivity levels in advanced and emerging economies and facilitated a partial reshaping of the global innovation landscape. However, there are local requisites to escalate the ladder of innovation capabilities.
https://youtu.be/caIuXm3PUvk

21 views

Secular stagnation and the big balance sheet economy

Private balance sheets have risen relative to GDP in advanced economies in the last decades, in t... more Private balance sheets have risen relative to GDP in advanced economies in the last decades, in tandem with a trend of decline in long-term real interest rates. Asset-driven macroeconomic cycles, along with a structural trend of rising influence of finance on income growth and distribution, have become part of the landscape. Underlying secular trends of stagnation may also be suggested, making the macroeconomic dynamics dependent on the balance sheet economy getting bigger and bigger.
https://youtu.be/2wlf1FhUuEk

28 views

Development through gender equality

Empirical evidence shows that gender inequality, including from legal gender-related restrictions... more Empirical evidence shows that gender inequality, including from legal gender-related restrictions, leads to the loss of growth opportunities, particularly in countries at earlier stages of development. The adverse effect of legal barriers to women’s participation in economic activities remains significant for countries at different stages of development. Time is now for investing in women and ensuring countries and the world can honor commitments and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals agreed upon to ensure a prosperous and sustainable world for generations to come.
https://youtu.be/z_e8Pth1MdI

99 views

Natural wealth and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

The conceptual framework of natural wealth that we approached in the previous video may be illust... more The conceptual framework of natural wealth that we approached in the previous video may be illustrated with cases drawn from Sub-Saharan Africa. With at least 250 million inhabitants in resource-rich African countries, natural assets are responsible for more than 80% of exports and 50% of government revenues in the region. As such, the high concentration of resource-rich countries in the area allows for direct comparisons with their resource-poor counterfactual regional neighbors.
We compare rates of economic growth, poverty reduction, governance, and sources of productivity growth in resource-rich and resource-poor countries. We contrast the landscapes during the commodity boom with the current one during the pandemic crisis.
https://youtu.be/MRmojSGmw8g

48 views

Brazil and South Korea - Two tales of a middle-income trap

The middle-income trap may well characterize the experience of Brazil and most of Latin America s... more The middle-income trap may well characterize the experience of Brazil and most of Latin America since the 1980s. Conversely, South Korea maintained its pace of evolution, reaching a high-income status.
Such divergence of economic growth can be related to their distinctive performances of domestic accumulation of technological and organizational capabilities. Their different approaches to global value chains and trade globalization reinforced such discrepancy in domestic accumulation processes.
https://youtu.be/EJlwTZB7POM

55 views

Trade globalization

In the 1990s and 2000s, the world manufacturing production to a substantial extent moved from adv... more In the 1990s and 2000s, the world manufacturing production to a substantial extent moved from advanced countries to some developing countries. This was the result of the combination of an increase of the labor supply in the global market economy, trade opening, and technological transformations that allowed for fragmentation of production processes. As a result, foreign trade expanded, and world poverty diminished. Such trade globalization process stabilized in the 2010s and tends to be partially reversed by the new wave of technological changes.
https://youtu.be/2MCClD4vbZw

74 views

China’s economic rebalancing

China’s growth trajectory in the second decade of the century has been one of a rebalancing towar... more China’s growth trajectory in the second decade of the century has been one of a rebalancing toward a new growth pattern, one in which domestic consumption is to rise relative to investments and exports, while a drive toward consolidating local insertion up the ladder of value added in global value chains also takes place. Services should also keep rising relative to manufacturing. Declining GDP growth rates from two digits in previous decades to 6% in 2019 - and likely lower ahead – would be the counterpart to rising wages and domestic mass-consumption, and to the transition toward higher weights of services and high tech.
https://youtu.be/rxh88VfgBvk

3 views

Global inequality

The global trend towards increasing globalization since the 1990s seems to have had two different... more The global trend towards increasing globalization since the 1990s seems to have had two different distributional consequences: income inequality between countries has declined, while economic inequality within countries has increased. However, technological progress has made the biggest contribution to rising income inequality over the past two decades. Domestic policies – fiscal policies, social protection - are the locus where inequality is to be tackled.
https://youtu.be/0Agd3OsrzZY

38 views

Financial globalization

Financial integration of countries and financial globalization led to an extraordinary rise of fo... more Financial integration of countries and financial globalization led to an extraordinary rise of foreign assets and liabilities as a share of GDP, followed by stability of total flows since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The apparent stability has been marked by an underlying metamorphosis of cross-border finance, with de-banking and rising foreign direct investment and non-banking financial flows. Blind spots and potential instability remain.
https://youtu.be/pU5LsFHGh80

32 views

Bloated central bank balance sheets

When the global financial crisis hit the international economy in 2008, central banks in major ad... more When the global financial crisis hit the international economy in 2008, central banks in major advanced economies widened their range of monetary policy instruments, increasingly resorting to unconventional tools. Initially to avoid a deepening of the financial destabilization and bankruptcy of solvent-but-illiquid private sector balance sheets, as it happened during the Great Depression of the 30s in the last century. Subsequently to fight economic stagnation and deflation risks as private agents deleveraged. While the “liability-driven” initial phase can be seen as “quantitative stabilizing”, the later “asset-driven” balance sheet expansion is the true “quantitative easing”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTFJCPSIA2A

41 views

Global current account imbalances

After peaking in 2007 at around 6% of world GDP, global current-account imbalances declined to 3%... more After peaking in 2007 at around 6% of world GDP, global current-account imbalances declined to 3% of world GDP in the last few years. But they have never left entirely the spotlight, albeit acquiring a different configuration from that which marked the trajectory prior to the global financial crisis (GFC).
This is not because they threaten global financial stability, but mainly because they reveal asymmetries in adjustment and post-GFC recovery between surplus and deficit economies, and because of the risk of sparking waves of trade protectionism. They also reveal the sub-par performance of the global economy in terms of foregone product and employment, i.e. a post-crisis global economic recovery below its potential.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YLPruhePo0&list=PLlaDy-aWvibatjjydl_-SISs8IMfr-tdi&index=8

25 views

Central banks and climate change

There are three major reasons for central banks to engage on climate change issues. The first is ... more There are three major reasons for central banks to engage on climate change issues. The first is the set of – physical and transition - risks to financial stability potentially brought about by natural disasters and trends derived from climate change. Second, the potential impact of climate change shocks and trends on economic growth and inflation and, therefore, on their monetary policy decisions. Finally, the possibility of using their balance sheets and their macroprudential toolkit to favor climate mitigation.
https://youtu.be/t0xraqSjkfc

171 views

Commodity price cycles

Commodity prices go through extended periods during which prices are well above or below their lo... more Commodity prices go through extended periods during which prices are well above or below their long-term price trend. The upswing phase in super cycles results from a lag between unexpected, persistent, and upward trends in commodity demand, matched with a typically slow-moving supply. Eventually, as adequate supply becomes available and demand growth slows, the cycle enters a downswing phase.
The latest super-cycle of commodity prices, starting in the mid-90s, reaching a peak by the time of the global financial crisis, and getting to the bottom by 2015, can be seen as associated to the developments of globalization that we have already dealt with in this series. More recently, some analysts have spoken that we might be on the verge of a new cycle, super-cycle or not.
https://youtu.be/D_4K0Qr5P_8

3 views

Middle-income trap

The “middle-income trap” has become a broad designation trying to capture the many cases of devel... more The “middle-income trap” has become a broad designation trying to capture the many cases of developing countries that succeeded in evolving from low- to middle-levels of per capita income, but then appeared to stall, losing momentum along the route toward the higher income levels of advanced economies. We need to approach middle-income countries as being in a complex transition phase between accumulation and innovation-based economies. Individual middle-income country experiences of falling into a “trap” may be approached as cases of lack of or failing performance in footing the bill in terms of appropriate policies and institutions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l3BqW48fj8

36 views

Natural resource-richness is basically a blessing, as stocks of natural wealth are among the fact... more Natural resource-richness is basically a blessing, as stocks of natural wealth are among the factors of production which help determine the output per worker of a country. But it may become a curse, depending on the quality of governance and on the policies adopted to cope with macroeconomic challenges that accompany it.
Natural wealth as a blessing supposes that the use of non-renewable resources must correspond to some extent to its transformation into the other types of assets. Such transformation passes by production diversification over time. Natural wealth must crowd-in other activities rather than crowd them out.
Blessing supposes governance features that avoid rent captures for patronage purposes and misallocation of resources, as well as appropriate policies to deal with macroeconomic challenges that come with resource richness, such as Dutch disease effects of booms, temptations to over-borrow, and periodic situations of commodity price busts.
https://youtu.be/O82KzJTLhFY

7 views

How to heal the Brazilian economy

The Brazilian economy has been suffering from a double disease in the last few decades: a combina... more The Brazilian economy has been suffering from a double disease in the last few decades: a combination of anemia in productivity increases and an obesity of the public sector. On the one hand, the mediocre performance of productivity in Brazil in recent decades has limited its GDP growth potential. On the other, the expansion of public spending has become increasingly incompatible with such limits on the potential expansion of GDP, particularly since the growing public spending has not achieved commensurate socioeconomic results.
https://youtu.be/c3F4AZnf4qE

2 views

The global economy and the pandemic

There remains tremendous uncertainty and prospects of a post-pandemic recovery vary greatly acros... more There remains tremendous uncertainty and prospects of a post-pandemic recovery vary greatly across countries, as it is bound to happen at different paces. And the divergence of per capita incomes in the world is rising as an aftermath of the pandemic. The pandemic will leave scars in labor markets and income distribution, besides higher public debts as a legacy. A higher pace of automation of jobs, as well as a partial reversal of globalization are also to be expected.
https://youtu.be/YvO0uDTFI2o

2 views

Lost in transition - emerging markets in the global economy

The growth and productivity performance of emerging market and developing economies since the 200... more The growth and productivity performance of emerging market and developing economies since the 2008 global financial crisis failed to repeat the achievements of the previous decade. Besides frustrating expectations that they might become the new growth pole in the global economy, their convergence to per capita incomes of advanced economies has suffered a setback. Nonetheless, the path of policies and reforms to be pursued in that direction remains the same. This is something accentuated by the coronavirus pandemic crisis.
https://youtu.be/KhSJ5g5O7K0

29 views

EMERGING MARKETS: ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL FRAGMENTATION

AMUNDI WORLD INVESTMENT FORUM June 9th, 2022 Paris, Carrousel du Louvre Otaviano Canuto, Seni... more

84 views

Bridging private finance and green infrastructure

The contrast between the scarcity of investments in infrastructure – particularly in non-advanced... more The contrast between the scarcity of investments in infrastructure – particularly in non-advanced economies – and the excess of savings invested in liquid and low-return assets in the global economy deserves to be confronted. Greening infrastructure in non-advanced economies would benefit from being able to attract greenbacks into the business. Building a bridge between private finance and (green) infrastructure would need the development of pipeline of projects with homogeneous regulations and standards, as well as with minimum mismatch between risks and comfort of private investors to manage them along project stages.
https://youtu.be/pkTUjjUKoAs

67 views

Globalization and technological learning

Cross-border technological diffusion has contributed to rising domestic productivity levels in ad... more Cross-border technological diffusion has contributed to rising domestic productivity levels in advanced and emerging economies and facilitated a partial reshaping of the global innovation landscape. However, there are local requisites to escalate the ladder of innovation capabilities.
https://youtu.be/caIuXm3PUvk

21 views

Secular stagnation and the big balance sheet economy

Private balance sheets have risen relative to GDP in advanced economies in the last decades, in t... more Private balance sheets have risen relative to GDP in advanced economies in the last decades, in tandem with a trend of decline in long-term real interest rates. Asset-driven macroeconomic cycles, along with a structural trend of rising influence of finance on income growth and distribution, have become part of the landscape. Underlying secular trends of stagnation may also be suggested, making the macroeconomic dynamics dependent on the balance sheet economy getting bigger and bigger.
https://youtu.be/2wlf1FhUuEk

28 views

Development through gender equality

Empirical evidence shows that gender inequality, including from legal gender-related restrictions... more Empirical evidence shows that gender inequality, including from legal gender-related restrictions, leads to the loss of growth opportunities, particularly in countries at earlier stages of development. The adverse effect of legal barriers to women’s participation in economic activities remains significant for countries at different stages of development. Time is now for investing in women and ensuring countries and the world can honor commitments and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals agreed upon to ensure a prosperous and sustainable world for generations to come.
https://youtu.be/z_e8Pth1MdI

99 views

Natural wealth and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

The conceptual framework of natural wealth that we approached in the previous video may be illust... more The conceptual framework of natural wealth that we approached in the previous video may be illustrated with cases drawn from Sub-Saharan Africa. With at least 250 million inhabitants in resource-rich African countries, natural assets are responsible for more than 80% of exports and 50% of government revenues in the region. As such, the high concentration of resource-rich countries in the area allows for direct comparisons with their resource-poor counterfactual regional neighbors.
We compare rates of economic growth, poverty reduction, governance, and sources of productivity growth in resource-rich and resource-poor countries. We contrast the landscapes during the commodity boom with the current one during the pandemic crisis.
https://youtu.be/MRmojSGmw8g

48 views

Brazil and South Korea - Two tales of a middle-income trap

The middle-income trap may well characterize the experience of Brazil and most of Latin America s... more The middle-income trap may well characterize the experience of Brazil and most of Latin America since the 1980s. Conversely, South Korea maintained its pace of evolution, reaching a high-income status.
Such divergence of economic growth can be related to their distinctive performances of domestic accumulation of technological and organizational capabilities. Their different approaches to global value chains and trade globalization reinforced such discrepancy in domestic accumulation processes.
https://youtu.be/EJlwTZB7POM

55 views

Trade globalization

In the 1990s and 2000s, the world manufacturing production to a substantial extent moved from adv... more In the 1990s and 2000s, the world manufacturing production to a substantial extent moved from advanced countries to some developing countries. This was the result of the combination of an increase of the labor supply in the global market economy, trade opening, and technological transformations that allowed for fragmentation of production processes. As a result, foreign trade expanded, and world poverty diminished. Such trade globalization process stabilized in the 2010s and tends to be partially reversed by the new wave of technological changes.
https://youtu.be/2MCClD4vbZw

74 views

China’s economic rebalancing

China’s growth trajectory in the second decade of the century has been one of a rebalancing towar... more China’s growth trajectory in the second decade of the century has been one of a rebalancing toward a new growth pattern, one in which domestic consumption is to rise relative to investments and exports, while a drive toward consolidating local insertion up the ladder of value added in global value chains also takes place. Services should also keep rising relative to manufacturing. Declining GDP growth rates from two digits in previous decades to 6% in 2019 - and likely lower ahead – would be the counterpart to rising wages and domestic mass-consumption, and to the transition toward higher weights of services and high tech.
https://youtu.be/rxh88VfgBvk

3 views

Global inequality

The global trend towards increasing globalization since the 1990s seems to have had two different... more The global trend towards increasing globalization since the 1990s seems to have had two different distributional consequences: income inequality between countries has declined, while economic inequality within countries has increased. However, technological progress has made the biggest contribution to rising income inequality over the past two decades. Domestic policies – fiscal policies, social protection - are the locus where inequality is to be tackled.
https://youtu.be/0Agd3OsrzZY

38 views

Financial globalization

Financial integration of countries and financial globalization led to an extraordinary rise of fo... more Financial integration of countries and financial globalization led to an extraordinary rise of foreign assets and liabilities as a share of GDP, followed by stability of total flows since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The apparent stability has been marked by an underlying metamorphosis of cross-border finance, with de-banking and rising foreign direct investment and non-banking financial flows. Blind spots and potential instability remain.
https://youtu.be/pU5LsFHGh80

32 views

Bloated central bank balance sheets

When the global financial crisis hit the international economy in 2008, central banks in major ad... more When the global financial crisis hit the international economy in 2008, central banks in major advanced economies widened their range of monetary policy instruments, increasingly resorting to unconventional tools. Initially to avoid a deepening of the financial destabilization and bankruptcy of solvent-but-illiquid private sector balance sheets, as it happened during the Great Depression of the 30s in the last century. Subsequently to fight economic stagnation and deflation risks as private agents deleveraged. While the “liability-driven” initial phase can be seen as “quantitative stabilizing”, the later “asset-driven” balance sheet expansion is the true “quantitative easing”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTFJCPSIA2A

41 views

Global current account imbalances

After peaking in 2007 at around 6% of world GDP, global current-account imbalances declined to 3%... more After peaking in 2007 at around 6% of world GDP, global current-account imbalances declined to 3% of world GDP in the last few years. But they have never left entirely the spotlight, albeit acquiring a different configuration from that which marked the trajectory prior to the global financial crisis (GFC).
This is not because they threaten global financial stability, but mainly because they reveal asymmetries in adjustment and post-GFC recovery between surplus and deficit economies, and because of the risk of sparking waves of trade protectionism. They also reveal the sub-par performance of the global economy in terms of foregone product and employment, i.e. a post-crisis global economic recovery below its potential.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YLPruhePo0&list=PLlaDy-aWvibatjjydl_-SISs8IMfr-tdi&index=8

25 views

Central banks and climate change

There are three major reasons for central banks to engage on climate change issues. The first is ... more There are three major reasons for central banks to engage on climate change issues. The first is the set of – physical and transition - risks to financial stability potentially brought about by natural disasters and trends derived from climate change. Second, the potential impact of climate change shocks and trends on economic growth and inflation and, therefore, on their monetary policy decisions. Finally, the possibility of using their balance sheets and their macroprudential toolkit to favor climate mitigation.
https://youtu.be/t0xraqSjkfc

171 views

Commodity price cycles

Commodity prices go through extended periods during which prices are well above or below their lo... more Commodity prices go through extended periods during which prices are well above or below their long-term price trend. The upswing phase in super cycles results from a lag between unexpected, persistent, and upward trends in commodity demand, matched with a typically slow-moving supply. Eventually, as adequate supply becomes available and demand growth slows, the cycle enters a downswing phase.
The latest super-cycle of commodity prices, starting in the mid-90s, reaching a peak by the time of the global financial crisis, and getting to the bottom by 2015, can be seen as associated to the developments of globalization that we have already dealt with in this series. More recently, some analysts have spoken that we might be on the verge of a new cycle, super-cycle or not.
https://youtu.be/D_4K0Qr5P_8

3 views

Middle-income trap

The “middle-income trap” has become a broad designation trying to capture the many cases of devel... more The “middle-income trap” has become a broad designation trying to capture the many cases of developing countries that succeeded in evolving from low- to middle-levels of per capita income, but then appeared to stall, losing momentum along the route toward the higher income levels of advanced economies. We need to approach middle-income countries as being in a complex transition phase between accumulation and innovation-based economies. Individual middle-income country experiences of falling into a “trap” may be approached as cases of lack of or failing performance in footing the bill in terms of appropriate policies and institutions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l3BqW48fj8

36 views

Natural resource-richness is basically a blessing, as stocks of natural wealth are among the fact... more Natural resource-richness is basically a blessing, as stocks of natural wealth are among the factors of production which help determine the output per worker of a country. But it may become a curse, depending on the quality of governance and on the policies adopted to cope with macroeconomic challenges that accompany it.
Natural wealth as a blessing supposes that the use of non-renewable resources must correspond to some extent to its transformation into the other types of assets. Such transformation passes by production diversification over time. Natural wealth must crowd-in other activities rather than crowd them out.
Blessing supposes governance features that avoid rent captures for patronage purposes and misallocation of resources, as well as appropriate policies to deal with macroeconomic challenges that come with resource richness, such as Dutch disease effects of booms, temptations to over-borrow, and periodic situations of commodity price busts.
https://youtu.be/O82KzJTLhFY

7 views

How to heal the Brazilian economy

The Brazilian economy has been suffering from a double disease in the last few decades: a combina... more The Brazilian economy has been suffering from a double disease in the last few decades: a combination of anemia in productivity increases and an obesity of the public sector. On the one hand, the mediocre performance of productivity in Brazil in recent decades has limited its GDP growth potential. On the other, the expansion of public spending has become increasingly incompatible with such limits on the potential expansion of GDP, particularly since the growing public spending has not achieved commensurate socioeconomic results.
https://youtu.be/c3F4AZnf4qE

2 views

The global economy and the pandemic

There remains tremendous uncertainty and prospects of a post-pandemic recovery vary greatly acros... more There remains tremendous uncertainty and prospects of a post-pandemic recovery vary greatly across countries, as it is bound to happen at different paces. And the divergence of per capita incomes in the world is rising as an aftermath of the pandemic. The pandemic will leave scars in labor markets and income distribution, besides higher public debts as a legacy. A higher pace of automation of jobs, as well as a partial reversal of globalization are also to be expected.
https://youtu.be/YvO0uDTFI2o

2 views

Lost in transition - emerging markets in the global economy

The growth and productivity performance of emerging market and developing economies since the 200... more The growth and productivity performance of emerging market and developing economies since the 2008 global financial crisis failed to repeat the achievements of the previous decade. Besides frustrating expectations that they might become the new growth pole in the global economy, their convergence to per capita incomes of advanced economies has suffered a setback. Nonetheless, the path of policies and reforms to be pursued in that direction remains the same. This is something accentuated by the coronavirus pandemic crisis.
https://youtu.be/KhSJ5g5O7K0

29 views

The US Elections Will Have Global Economic Impact

Capital Finance International , 2024

In November, US voters will decide who will control the White House, the Senate, and the House of... more In November, US voters will decide who will control the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, and their respective parties differ significantly on key economic policies that will affect not only the US but the global economy. Here, we examine the candidates’ positions on trade, tax, energy, and immigration

The automotive transition and the road to decarbonisation

Capital Finance International, 2024

The journey to decarbonise the planet is closely tied to the energy transition, with the shift fr... more

Politics and Climate Change Make Awkward Bedfellows in the Race to Tackle a Truly Fearsome Foe

Capital Finance International, 2024

The damage from climate change has already arrived, and will increase. The situation will only ge... more The damage from climate change has already arrived, and will increase. The situation will only get worse if the world fails to reduce carbon emissions — which will depend on countries establishing and fulfilling appropriate NDCs. Recent political developments in countries with significant influence on this trajectory do not seem promising. We can only hope that this evolution does not bring greater consequences for the Road to Decarbonisation.

Processos de industrialização tardia

Ao amigo e mestre Mário Possas, com quem apJ-endi que o rigor intelectual e o contínuo questionam... more Ao amigo e mestre Mário Possas, com quem apJ-endi que o rigor intelectual e o contínuo questionamento de caminhos teciricos j p e ñ c o n-l. d o s fonte de sio ingredientes necessários para tornar a intuiçio conhecimento progressivo. Agradei;o também seus c o m e n t r i o s sobre vers5es preliminares do presente texto. A Luciano Coutinho, cuja liderança de equipe de trabalho me pel-mH iu a conct:ntraç:ão de esfon:os pal-a a cone lu são deste b a b a l h o. A Haria da C o n c e ĩ i o Tavares, J õ o Manuel Cardoso de Mello e Wilson Cano, cujas perguntas em momentos certos ajudaram a matuJ-açio elo presente trabalho. Aos c o m a d r e s Hamilton Ferreira e Marta Arretche, meus parceiros ideais na jornada ao Leste Asi,tico e com quem será um p r i v i l g i o trilhar novas rotas. A Rogério Gomes, Sílvia Possas, José Maria da Silveira e por s.ua c 011 t r i b ui ç t o intelectual Francisco Lopreato, solidariedade pessoal nos vários momentos cruciais da realizatio do presente trabalho. Suas liç5es de amizade sâo universais e deveriam ser aplicadas em todos os tempos e lugares. A Ana Lucia Silva, 11:.:H i ano Lap 1 ane, Margarida Baptista e J o s Carlos Miranda, com q ũ m o convívio elo trabalho em cor1junto tem sido uma experiência crescentemente gratificante. A Bastiaan R ẽ d o n , Mircio Wohlers. Carlos A n i b i l Fabrício de Olivei1•a, Co-:::, ta, Rin<:tldc ''Pudim'' Fonseca e Carlos A m r i c o Pacheco, memoráve :i. s debates et í 1 ico ..-acadl?micos, ao muito conhecimento. pelos produtivos e longo dos quais sorvi A Angela Morandi e Clésio Xavier, que leram e dividiram comigo a emoçio dos momentos finais do presente t1•abalho. A José Antônio "Bf:'ij inho" de Avila e Teodulo Vasconcelos, com os quais comecei a seguir os caminhos da H : s p o n s á v e l ". A Al€:'Xandre Munhoz (in f!1emoriam), C n d i d a Teixeira e !>1auricio do Valle, os quais, em circunstâncias distintas, me ajuc!aram a atravessar dificuldades no percurso. Ao NEIT e ao GERI, pelo suporte institucional Bárbara, Otávio Augusto, Pedro Ivo e Luiza, um time que contribuiu com muito carinho e p a c ĩ n c i a , sem os quais este trabalho ñ o sci ñ o teria sido concluído, como nio teria sentido.

O padr‹o de financiamento na industrializa ‹o coreana

Financializing Commodity Markets: Consequences, Advantages and African Case Study

Policy Center for the New South, 2024

Africa has a wealth of natural resources, including minerals, agriculture, and energy commodities... more Africa has a wealth of natural resources, including minerals, agriculture, and energy commodities, which provides an opportunity for the financialization of these commodities on the continent, a concept that has gained global attention and sparked debate on the potential benefits and drawbacks. Although the financialization of commodities has been studied in various contexts, including in African countries, challenges such as liquidity constraints and market readiness have emerged as critical impediments to its widespread adoption. This paper examines the existing literature to clarify the positive and negative aspects of commodity financialization, drawing on global examples and specific cases within Africa. By examining best practices and lessons learned, this paper offers guidance on how African countries can navigate the complexities of preparing for and embracing commodity financialization in order to unlock its potential benefits while mitigating the associated risks.

The Global War of Subsidies

Capital Finance International, 2024

US bids to limit tech imports and exports send a message of frustration and fear.

How Will AI Affect the Economy?

Capital Finance International, 2024

What effect will AI have on productivity and economic growth, and on social inclusion and income ... more

China's Economic Growth is on-Target Despite Challenges

Capital Finance International, 2024

The IMF World Economic Outlook recently released a projection of China's economic growth of 4.6 p... more The IMF World Economic Outlook recently released a projection of
China's economic growth of 4.6 percent and 4.1 percent for this year
and next. In 2023, after the economic reopening with the end of the “Covid-zero” policy, the rate was 5.2 percent, above the official target of five.
This year, the official target has again been set at five percent. The challenges approached here notwithstanding, the macro-economic
performance in the first quarter of 2024 has been in sync with such a target.

The reform of the global financial architecture Toward a system that delivers for the South

Atlantic Council and Policy Center for the New South, 2024

The current global financial architecture, developed in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference, is ... more The current global financial architecture, developed in
1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference, is no longer
able to respond to the needs of the world of the twenty-
first century. Many voices are calling for reforms,
including the Secretary General of the United Nations, and the
various reform proposals will be discussed at a UN Summit in
September 2024.14 This report contributes to the ongoing debate
by proposing reforms of the global financial architecture
in three areas: governance, sovereign-debt management, and
increasing financing for climate and economic development.

Demographic dynamics and immigration policies high income countries

by Otaviano Canuto and Eduardo Andrade

Policy Center for the New South, 2024

Most high-income countries will experience declines in their populations over the next few decade... more Most high-income countries will experience declines in their populations over the next few decades. Some negative consequences of aging are on the horizon: greater fiscal imbalances and risks of economic stagnation.
Immigration may be a way for those countries to mitigate the tendency. On the source side of immigration flows, brain drain is a risk.
The policy paper presents the case of Japan, a nation that has grappled with the consequences of a declining and aging population for several years, as an example for other countries destined to confront similar circumstances in the forthcoming decades.

AI and the Future of Government: Unexpected Effects and Critical Challenges

by Tiago Peixoto and Otaviano Canuto

Policy Center for the New South Policy Paper , 2024

Based on observable facts, this policy paper explores some of the lessacknowledged yet critically... more Based on observable facts, this policy paper explores some of the lessacknowledged yet critically important ways in which artificial intelligence (AI) may affect the public sector and its role. Our focus is on those areas where AI's influence might be understated currently, but where it has substantial implications for future government policies and actions. We identify four main areas of impact that could redefine the public sector role, require new answers from it, or both. These areas are the emergence of a new language-based digital divide, jobs displacement in the public administration, disruptions in revenue mobilization, and declining government responsiveness. This discussion not only identifies critical areas but also underscores the importance of transcending conventional approaches in tackling them. As we examine these challenges, we shed light on their significance, seeking to inform policymakers and stakeholders about the nuanced ways in which AI may quietly, yet profoundly, alter the public sector landscape.

AI and the Future of Government: Unexpected Effects and Critical Challenges

Policy Center for the New South, 2024

Based on observable facts, this policy paper explores some of the lessacknowledged yet critically... more Based on observable facts, this policy paper explores some of the lessacknowledged yet critically important ways in which artificial intelligence (AI) may affect the public sector and its role. Our focus is on those areas where AI's influence might be understated currently, but where it has substantial implications for future government policies and actions. We identify four main areas of impact that could redefine the public sector role, require new answers from it, or both. These areas are the emergence of a new language-based digital divide, jobs displacement in the public administration, disruptions in revenue mobilization, and declining government responsiveness. This discussion not only identifies critical areas but also underscores the importance of transcending conventional approaches in tackling them. As we examine these challenges, we shed light on their significance, seeking to inform policymakers and stakeholders about the nuanced ways in which AI may quietly, yet profoundly, alter the public sector landscape.

The Middle-Income Trap and Resource-Based Growth: the Case of Brazil

Policy Center for the New South, 2024

This paper examines Brazil's economic growth patterns over the last three decades and identifies ... more This paper examines Brazil's economic growth patterns over the last three decades and identifies a missed opportunity for the country to attain high-income status by the mid-2010s. Instead, Brazil has suffered from low productivity growth, and has made little progress in transforming its production and export structures in favor of higher value-added activities. This premature de-industrialization makes it challenging for Brazil to transition from its longstanding upper-middle-income status. Brazil now has a limited, two-decade window to catch up with high-income nations before losing its demographic dividend, potentially leaving the country with an aging population without achieving high-income status. Therefore, it is crucial for Brazil to raise productivity growth through competition policies, and by embracing technological change. Achieving this goal requires comprehensive trade reforms to improve domestic competition, and to harness technology advancements effectively. This paper discusses key elements of such a policy framework within the broader context of a development strategy aimed at breaking free from the middle-income trap.

Emerging Markets and Developing Economies in the Global Financial Safety Net

by Otaviano Canuto and Amshika Amar

Policy Center for the New South, 2024

When countries face external financial shocks, they must rely on financial buffers to counter suc... more When countries face external financial shocks, they must rely on financial buffers to counter such shocks. The global financial safety net is the set of institutions and arrangements that provide lines of defense for economies against such shocks.

From any individual country standpoint, there are three lines of defense in their external financial safety nets: international reserves, pooled resources (swap lines and plurilateral financing arrangements), and the International Monetary Fund.

We argue here that there is a need to extend and facilitate access to the ultimate global financial safety net layer: the IMF. We illustrate that by pointing out how Morocco and Mexico have boosted their defensive power by having access to IMF precautionary lines of credit.

Basiléia 2: da regulação substantiva à regulação procedimental

How to Measure the Digital Economy in 5G Technologies and Digital Silk Road Era

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Jan 25, 2023

The current transformation of the society under the influence of digital technologies has no hist... more The current transformation of the society under the influence of digital technologies has no historical analogue in terms of its spread and the pace of development. The future will heavily depend on digital technologies. The role of the digital economy and 5G technologies is increasing day by day and for Georgia,-as a developing country, it is important not to fall behind the world trends. Measuring the digital economy and calculating its mathematical algorithm (gross virtual product) is important for the modern world, since, based on the world development trends, the digital economy plays an imperative role directly in the development of the economy. A non-existent, highly unusual and universal economic governance is being established-a corporate "digital dictatorship", with its benefits and risks, which will radically change human thinking, mentality, consumer behavior and economic activity. A new paradigm of employment is developing-Gigeconomy. A new model of economic relations is established-platform economy and many others.

Palestra: "Desafios do desenvolvimento brasileiro: a armadilha da renda média

"Desafios do desenvolvimento brasileiro: a armadilha da renda média" foi o tema da pale... more "Desafios do desenvolvimento brasileiro: a armadilha da renda média" foi o tema da palestra proferida por Otaviano Canuto, diretor executivo pelo Brasil do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI), organizado pelo Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia (NUPEC) da Universidade Federal de Sergipe. Para acessar o vídeo clique na URI abaixo.São Cristóvão, S

Sostenibilidad Financiera del Financiamiento Subnacional a Través de la Deuda

Trimestre fiscal, 2010

Padrões de especialização, hiatos tecnológicos e crescimento com restrição de divisas

Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Jul 1, 1998

Padrões de especialização, hiatos tecnológicos e crescimento com restrições de divisas Patt... more Padrões de especialização, hiatos tecnológicos e crescimento com restrições de divisas Patterns of specialization, technological hiatus and foreign-exchange constrained growth OTAVIANO CANUTO*,** RESUMO: Este artigo apresenta um modelo Norte-Sul sobre a interação entre comércio exterior e crescimento restrito de câmbio, modelo em que os padrões de especialização associados às estruturas de produção das economias desempenham um papel crucial. O crescimento econômico é condicionado pela dinâmica setorial da inovação e imitação, bem como pelas elasticidades-renda e elasticidade-preço. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Crescimento econômico; modelo Norte-Sul; padrão de especialização ABSTRACT: This paper presents a North-South model on the interaction between foreign trade and foreign-exchange constrained growth, a model in which patterns of specialization associated to production structures of the economies play a crucial role. Economic growth is conditioned by sector dynamics of innovation and imitation, as well as by income-elasticities and price-elasticities.

CLIMBING A HIGH LADDER DEVELOPMENT IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Policy Center for the New South, 2021

This book approaches the opportunities and challenges faced by developing countries to raise thei... more This book approaches the opportunities and challenges faced by developing countries to raise their per capita income levels during the recent phase of globalization. After dealing with the post-global financial crisis economic landscape in advanced economies, the book deals with the windows of opportunity opened by trade and financial globalization for developing countries to climb the income ladder. Domestic preconditions for a developing country to benefit from those windows are then pointed out. China, Brazil, and Sub-Saharan Africa are presented as case studies. The book ends with an assessment of the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the global economy.

Financial Deepening and Post-Crisis Development in Emerging Markets - Current Perils and Future Dawns

by Otaviano Canuto and Aleksandr Gevorkyan

Financial Deepening and Post-Crisis Development in Emerging Markets is a compilation of diverse b... more Financial Deepening and Post-Crisis Development in Emerging Markets is a compilation of diverse but logically coherent contributions on the problems of emerging markets’ financial and macroeconomic development in the context of the post-2008 crisis. A loosely mixed and changing association of developing economies, emerging markets have evolved in the post-crisis environment as integral to the stability of the global financial system and sustainable growth of the global economy. It is in such setting that this study, covering a vast geography and a broad range of economic viewpoints, serves as an informed guide in the unchartered waters of the post-crisis redefined fundamental uncertainty.

Dealing with the Challenges of Macro Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets

Until Debt Do Us Part - Subnational Debt, Insolvency, and Markets

State and local debt and the debt of quasi-public agencies have grown in importance as a result o... more State and local debt and the debt of quasi-public agencies have grown in importance as a result of fiscal decentralization, rapid urbanization, and the increasing role played by private capital. However, with debt comes the risk of insolvency. This book brings together the reform experience of major emerging economies and developed countries. Written by leading practitioners and experts in public finance in the context of multilevel government systems, the book examines the interaction of markets, regulators, subnational borrowers, creditors, national governments, taxpayers, ex-ante rules, and ex-post insolvency systems in the quest for subnational fiscal discipline.

Ascent after Decline: Regrowing Global Economies after the Great Recession

The Day After Tomorrow: A Handbook on the Future of Economic Policy in the Developing World

A nova economia internacional: uma perspectiva brasileira

Rio de Janeiro: …, Jan 1, 1998

SIDALC - Servicio de Informacion y Documentacion Agropecuaria de las Americas.

Os (des) caminhos da industrialização tardia

São Paulo: Nobel, Jan 1, 1994

Time to Reset the Compass for Brazil's Economic Growth

Brazil’s macroeconomic management will face four major immediate challenges in the near future. ... more

The High Density of Brazilian Production Chains

International trade has undergone a radical transformation in the past decades as production proc... more International trade has undergone a radical transformation in the past decades as production processes have fragmented along cross-border value chains. The Brazilian economy has remained on the fringes of this production revolution, maintaining a very high density of local supply chains. This paper calls attention to the rising opportunity costs incurred by such option taken by the country

Brazil - Navigating between Risks and Policy Choices

Presentation at the Inter-American Dialogue, Washington - DC, USA, September 30, 2014

Global Imbalances on the Rise

Discussions around large current account imbalances among systemically relevant economies as a di... more Discussions around large current account imbalances among systemically relevant economies as a direct threat to the stability of the global economy vanished in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. As the crisis originated in the U.S. financial system – followed by a second dip in the Eurozone – and global imbalances diminished in following years the issue has faded into the background.
More recently, some signs of a possible resurgence of rising imbalances have returned attention to the issue. We argue here that, while not a threat to global financial stability, the resurgence of these imbalances reveals a sub-par performance of the global economy in terms of foregone product and employment, i.e. a post-crisis global economic recovery below its potential. In addition, we approach how the re-orientation of the U.S. economic policy already announced by president-elect Trump suggests risks of new bouts of tension around global current account imbalances.