College of Population Studies

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is the most common cause of respiratory tract infection in infants and children and shows increasing trend among elderly people worldwide. In many developing country settings, population and household structures have gone through some significant changes in the past decades, namely fewer births, more elderly population, and smaller household size but more RSV high-risk individuals. These dynamics have been captured in a mathematical model with RSV transmission dynamics to predict the disease burden on the detailed population for future targeted interventions. The population and disease dynamics model was constructed and tested against the hospitalization data for Acute Lower Respiratory Tract Infection due to RSV in rural Thai settings between 2005 and 2011. The proportion of extended families is predicted to increase by about 10% from 2005 to 2020, especially for those with elderly population, while the classic nuclear family type (with adults and children) will decline by about 10%. For RSV, infections from extended family type (approximately 60% of all household types) have majorly contributed to the force of infection (FOI). While the model predicted the increase of FOI from the extended family by 15% from 2005 to 2020, the FOI contributed by other household types would be either stable or decrease in the same time period. RSV incidence rate is predominantly high among babies (92.2%) and has been predicted to decrease slightly over time (from 940 to 864 cases per 100,000 population by 2020), while the incidence rates among children and elderly people may remain steadily low over the same period. However, the estimated incidence rates among elderly people were twice than those in children. The model predicts that approximately 60% of FOI for RSV will come from members of the extended family type. The incidence rate of RSV among children and elderly in extended families was about 20 times lower than that in infants and the trend is steady. Targeted intervention strategies, such as health education in some specific groups and targeted vaccination, may be considered, with the focus on extended family type. Target interventions on babies can lessen the

Vietnam, like many developing countries, is facing a rapid aging population. Therefore, understanding factors that are important to well-being in old age has become a key public policy concern. Using data from 2011 Vietnam National Aging Survey, the goal of this study was to examine the association between level of education and the subjective well-being of elderly males and females in Vietnam based on two affective domains: happiness and loneliness (N=2,571). Multinomial logistic regression analyses showed level of education was associated with happiness and loneliness of the elderly but there were distinct gender differences. Higher education was positively associated with men' s happiness, but not for women. Regarding loneliness, having university education is associated with a lower level of loneliness for both sexes. The study found those with higher education tended to be happier and less lonely. However, educational level had a stronger effect on males than females. Therefore, raising education level of the next generations is important in improving their subjective well-being during their old age.

This thesis studies the effects of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) on human capital investment and women's empowerment in Bangladesh. Chapter Two studies how the entry of NGOs in primary education has affected educational outcomes of girls and examines the mechanisms which account for the relative performance of NGO versus state schools in improving female educational outcomes. The results show that the entry of NGO schools has significantly increased girls' enrollment as compared to boys. The two most prominent characteristics of NGO schools that encourage girls' enrollment are the high percentage of female teachers and having Parent-Teacher Associations. NGO schools show strong effects in improving children's test scores. Chapter Three analyzes the factors which affect teacher presence, student attendance, and community participation in primary schools in Bangladesh. The results show that, after controlling for other factors, NGO school teachers are more like...

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is rising worldwide, exacerbated by aging populations. We estimated and predicted the diabetes burden and mortality due to undiagnosed diabetes together with screening program efficacy and reporting completeness in Thailand, in the context of demographic changes. An age and sex structured dynamic model including demographic and diagnostic processes was constructed. The model was validated using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The prevalence of DM was predicted to increase from 6.5% (95% credible interval: 6.3–6.7%) in 2015 to 10.69% (10.4–11.0%) in 2035, with the largest increase (72%) among 60 years or older. Out of the total DM cases in 2015, the percentage of undiagnosed DM cases was 18.2% (17.4–18.9%), with males higher than females (p-value < 0.01). The highest group with undiagnosed DM was those aged less than 39 years old, 74.2% (73.7–74.7%). The mortality of undiagnosed DM was ten-fold greater than the mortality of those with di...

This paper uses household, school, and test score data from Bangladesh to compare and contrast the effectiveness of NGO-run and state-run schools in the provision of primary education. I study how the entry of NGOs in primary education has affected educational outcomes of girls and examine the mechanisms which account for the relative performance of NGO versus state schools in improving female educational outcomes. The results show that the entry of NGO schools has significantly increased girls’ enrollment as compared to boys. Constructing cohorts from cross-sectional data using year of birth and year of NGO school establishment, I show that cohorts which were exposed to NGO schools have higher probability of enrollment and the effect operates mainly through girls. The two most prominent characteristics of NGO schools that encourage girls’ enrollment are the high percentage of female teachers and having Parent-Teacher Associations (PTAs). NGO schools show strong effects in improving...

Objective: To investigate the relationship between sex-composition of children and women’s fertility desire in Vietnam. Materials and methods: Using data from the 2014 Vietnam Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), we investigate the association between sex composition of children and desire for additional children among women in reproductive age (15 to 49 years) across Vietnam (N=5,605). Results: Multivariate logistic regression models showed statistically significant association between sex composition of children and women’s fertility desire, after controlling for social norms of fertility preference, demographic and socioeconomic factors. For each group of women (those with one child, two children, and three or more children) women with no sons are more likely to have higher fertility desire compared to women with at least one son. However, women with both son (s) and daughter (s) tend to have lower fertility desire compared to those who have all sons. Conclusion: Vietnam’s t...

This cross-sectional research aims to study the influence of family role and radio media advertising on dietary supplement uses among Thai elderly in 2016. A total sample of 338 people aged 60 or older was selected from residents of Khao Thong sub-district in Phayuha Khiri district, Nakhonsawan province. A multinomial logistic regression was used for correlation analyses. It was found that 35 percent of the elderly had ever taken dietary supplements before. Among them, 19 percent were current users and 16 percent had stopped using. A comparison between those who were ‘previous users’ and those who were ‘non-users’ revealed that the elderly whose family members, relatives, friends and neighbors were supplements sale representatives had 17 times higher odds of using dietary supplements than those who did not. Also, the elderly who received encouragements from family members regarding the use of dietary supplements had 2.7 times higher odds of using dietary supplements than those who d...

Adolescents face several challenges where ASRH issues are concerned. One of these issues is the low uptake of HIV prevention services especially those in high-density urban townships who are prone to several factors that hinder their access to HIV prevention services. This study sought to highlight the prevalence of HIV prevention methods use among adolescents and factors that determine their accessibility in Dzivarasekwa and Tynwald Districts. A total of 500 questionnaires were administered to adolescents aged 15-19 years to collect quantitative data. The study also conducted 10 Focus group discussions and 20 Key informant interviews to solicit qualitative data. The findings showed that, though a level of prevention was observed, a significant number of adolescents were engaging in sexual activities. Adolescents were aware of most HIV prevention methods: however, their knowledge was not being translated into the utilization of these methods. Recommendations were also offered to ser...

The utilization of Sexual and Reproductive Health by adolescents is determined by a myriad of factors. This research conducted between August 2017 and May 2018 analyzes the determinants of HIV prevention amongst adolescents in Zimbabwe. Qualitative and qualitative research methods were triangulated. A total of 200 questionnaires were administered to adolescents aged 15-19 years to collect quantitative data. The study conducted Focus group discussions and Key informant interviews to solicit qualitative data. The fi ndings showed that, a signifi cant number of adolescents were engaging in sexual activities. Adolescents were aware of most of HIV prevention methods: however their knowledge was not being translated into utilization of these methods. This was infl uenced by a lot of factors at individual, interpersonal, organization, community and national levelsLow uptake of prevention services was mainly attributed to high cost, low awareness, lack of proper knowledge about the benefi ts of the services. Recommendations were also offered to service on how HIV prevention services uptake can be improved amongst adolescents.