Papers by Luis Bettencourt
The concepts of sustainable development have experienced extraordinary success since their advent... more The concepts of sustainable development have experienced extraordinary success since their advent in the 1980s. They are now an integral part of the agenda of governments and corporations and their goals have become central to the mission of research laboratories and universities worldwide. However, it remains unclear how far the field has progressed as a scientific discipline, especially given its ambitious agenda of integrating theory, applied science and policy, making it relevant for development globally and generating a new interdisciplinary synthesis across fields as diverse as ecology, the social sciences and engineering. To address these questions we assembled a corpus of scholarly publications in the field and analyzed its temporal evolution, geographic distribution, disciplinary composition and collaboration structure. We show that sustainability science has been growing explosively since the late 1980s when foundational publications in the field increased its pull to new ...
SSRN Electronic Journal
One of the most commonly-observed properties of human settlements, both past and present, is the ... more One of the most commonly-observed properties of human settlements, both past and present, is the tendency for larger settlements to display higher population densities. Work in urban science and archaeology suggests this densification pattern reflects an emergent spatial equilibrium where individuals balance movement costs with social interaction benefits, leading to increases in aggregate productivity and social interdependence. In this context, it is perhaps not surprising that the more temporary camps created by mobile hunters and gatherers exhibit a tendency to become less dense with their population size. Here we examine why this difference occurs and consider conditions under which hunter-gatherer groups may transition to sedentism and densification. We investigate the relationship between population and area in mobile hunter-gatherer camps using a dataset, representing a large cross-cultural sample, derived from the ethnographic literature. We present a model based on the interplay between social interactions and scalar stress for the relationship between camp area and group size that describes the observed patterns among mobile hunter-gatherers. The model highlights the tradeoffs between the costs and benefits of proximity and interaction that are common to all human aggregations and specifies the constraints that must be overcome for economies of scale and cooperation to emerge.
The recent growth of high-resolution spatial data, especially in developing urban environments, i... more The recent growth of high-resolution spatial data, especially in developing urban environments, is enabling new approaches to civic activism, urban planning and the provision of services necessary for sustainable development. A special area of great potential and urgent need deals with urban expansion through informal settlements (slums). These neighborhoods are too often characterized by a lack of connections, both physical and socioeconomic, with detrimental effects to residents and their cities. Here, we show how a scalable computational approach based on the topological properties of digital maps can identify local infrastructural deficits and propose context-appropriate minimal solutions. We analyze 1 terabyte of OpenStreetMap (OSM) crowdsourced data to create worldwide indices of street block accessibility and local cadastral maps and propose infrastructure extensions with a focus on 120 Low and Middle Income Countries (LMIC) in the Global South. We illustrate how the lack of ...
Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History
Urban agglomeration economies make cities central to theories of modern economic growth. There is... more Urban agglomeration economies make cities central to theories of modern economic growth. There is historical evidence for the presence of Smithian growth and agglomeration effects in English towns c.1450-1670, but seminal assessments deny the presence of agglomeration effects and productivity gains to Early Modern English towns. This study evaluates the presence of increasing returns to scale (IRS) in aggregate urban economic outputs-the empirical signature of feedbacks between Smithian growth and agglomeration effects-among the towns of 16th century England. To do so, we test a model from settlement scaling theory against the 1524/5 Lay Subsidy returns. Analysis of these data indicates that Tudor towns exhibited IRS-a finding that is robust to alternative interpretations of the data. IRS holds even for the smallest towns in our sample, suggesting the absence of town size thresholds for the emergence of agglomeration effects. Spatial patterning of scaling residuals further suggests regional demand-side interactions with Smithian-agglomeration feedbacks. These findings suggest the presence of agglomeration effects and Smithian growth in pre-industrial English towns. This begs us to reconsider the economic performance of Early Modern English towns, and suggests that the qualitative economic dynamics of contemporary cities may be applicable to premodern settlements in general.
SSRN Electronic Journal
Societal responses to crises require coordination at multiple levels of organization. Exploring e... more Societal responses to crises require coordination at multiple levels of organization. Exploring early efforts to contain COVID-19 in the U.S., we argue that local governments can act to ensure systemic resilience and recovery when higher-level governments fail to do so. Event history analyses show that large, more urban areas experience COVID-19 more intensely due to high population density and denser socioeconomic networks. But metropolitan counties were also among the first to adopt shelter-in-place orders. Analyzing the statistical predictors of when counties moved before their states, we find that the hierarchy of counties by size and economic integration matters for the timing of orders, where both factors predict earlier shelter-in-place orders. In line with sociological theories of urban governance, we also find evidence of an important governance dimension to the timing of orders. Liberal counties in conservative states were more than twice as likely to adopt a policy and implement one earlier in the pandemic, suggesting that tensions about how to resolve collective governance problems are important in the socio-temporal dynamic of responses to COVID-19. We explain this behavior as a substitution effect in which more urban local governments, driven by risk and necessity, step up into the action vacuum left by higher levels of government and become national policy leaders and innovators.
It is commonly assumed that cities are detrimental to mental health. However, the evidence remain... more It is commonly assumed that cities are detrimental to mental health. However, the evidence remains inconsistent and, at most, makes the case for differences between rural and urban environments as a whole. Here, we propose a model of depression driven by an individual's accumulated experience mediated by social networks. The connection between observed systematic variations in socioeconomic networks and built environments with city size provides a link between urbanization and mental health. Surprisingly, this model predicts lower depression rates in larger cities. We confirm this prediction for US cities using three independent datasets. These results are consistent with other behaviors associated with denser socioeconomic networks and suggest that larger cities provide a buffer against depression. This approach introduces a systematic framework for conceptualizing and modeling mental health in complex physical and social networks, producing testable predictions for environment...
Crime is costly economically, socially, and psychologically for all societies, especially in urba... more Crime is costly economically, socially, and psychologically for all societies, especially in urban areas. While there are many well-studied environmental and social influences on crime such as poverty and marginalization, one less studied, but important factor is the effect of neighborhood greenspace. Prior research has shown that greenspace is negatively associated with crime, but the mechanism of this effect is debated. One suggested mechanism is that greenspaces increase local street activity, which in turn reduces crime, but past work has failed to examine effects of greenspace and street activity together, making it difficult to decouple these factors. Additionally, past research has typically used the static physical presence of greenspace as opposed to determining residents’ engagement with and use of greenspace, which may be critical to understanding the potential causal role of greenspace on crime. Here, we examine the association of crime with street activity, physical gre...
SSRN Electronic Journal
This is a report on the discussions held during an NSF SUS conference “Graduate Education for a N... more This is a report on the discussions held during an NSF SUS conference “Graduate Education for a New Sustainable Urban Systems Science: Designing a New PhD Curriculum Integrating Sustainability Science and Urban Science”. The conference was motivated by the call made by the NSF for “...developing the next generation of sustainable urban systems science.” (NSF 2018) The conference was premised on the assumption that such continued development will require the training of new generations of urban sustainability scientists, and that both the content and manner of training will be different from established degree programs.
SSRN Electronic Journal
The emergence of India as an urbanized nation is one of the most significant socioeconomic and po... more The emergence of India as an urbanized nation is one of the most significant socioeconomic and political processes of the 21 st century. An essential feature of India's urbanization has been the growth and persistence of informal settlements (slums) in its fast-developing cities. Whether living conditions in Indian urban slums constitute a path to human development or a poverty trap is therefore an issue of vital importance. Here, we characterize census data using the framework of urban scaling to systematically characterize the relative properties of Indian urban slums, focusing on attributes of neighborhoods such as access to basic services like water, sanitation, and electrical power. We find that slums in larger cities offer systematically higher levels of service access than those in smaller cities. Perhaps as expected, we also find consistent underperformance in service access in slums in comparison with non-slum neighborhoods in the same cities. However, urban slums, on average, offer greater access to services than neighborhoods in rural areas. This situation, which we quantify systematically, may help explain why Indian larger cities have remained attractive to rural populations in terms of living standards, beyond the need for an economic income premium.
Science advances, 2018
The world is urbanizing quickly with nearly 4 billion people presently living in urban areas, abo... more The world is urbanizing quickly with nearly 4 billion people presently living in urban areas, about 1 billion of them in slums. Achieving sustainable development from rapid urbanization relies critically on creating cities without slums. We show that it is possible to diagnose systematically the central physical problem of slums-the lack of spatial accesses and related services-using a topological analysis of neighborhood maps and resolved by finding solutions to a sequence of constrained optimization problems. We set up the problem by showing that the built environment of any city can be decomposed into two types of networked spaces-accesses and places-and prove that these spaces display universal topological characteristics. We then show that while the neighborhoods of developed cities express the same common topology, urban slums fall into a different topological class. We demonstrate that it is always possible to find solutions that grow a street network in existing slums, provi...
PloS one, 2018
Urban economies are composed of diverse activities, embodied in labor occupations, which depend o... more Urban economies are composed of diverse activities, embodied in labor occupations, which depend on one another to produce goods and services. Yet little is known about how the nature and intensity of these interdependences change as cities increase in population size and economic complexity. Understanding the relationship between occupational interdependencies and the number of occupations defining an urban economy is relevant because interdependence within a networked system has implications for system resilience and for how easily can the structure of the network be modified. Here, we represent the interdependencies among occupations in a city as a non-spatial information network, where the strengths of interdependence between pairs of occupations determine the strengths of the links in the network. Using those quantified link strengths we calculate a single metric of interdependence-or connectedness-which is equivalent to the density of a city's weighted occupational network....
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Papers by Luis Bettencourt