Papers by Narine Petrosyan
Amberd Bulletin, 2024
The final issue of the series focuses on the construction sector. Throughout the history of indep... more The final issue of the series focuses on the construction sector. Throughout the history of independence, events in the RA economy forced us to re-evaluate and re-assess the role of this fundamental factor in economic growth, which led to economic booms and, conversely, sharp declines. The paper explores the construction sector's role in the economy, its development, and expectations. It also seeks to identify the vulnerabilities of construction within the framework of both uncertain and certain future scenarios
Amberd Bulletin, 2024
Շարունակելով ներթափանցել հայաստանյան տնտեսական աճի խորքերը՝ այս անգամ թիրախավորել ենք գյուղատնտես... more Շարունակելով ներթափանցել հայաստանյան տնտեսական աճի խորքերը՝ այս անգամ թիրախավորել ենք գյուղատնտեսության ոլորտը։ Տնտեսական և, հատկապես, պարենային անվտանգության այս շարժիչ ուժը պարբերաբար ռիսկային տատանումներ է գրանցում՝ կորցնելով երբեմնի «տնտեսական հմայքը»։ Աշխարհաքաղաքական զարգացումները, գլոբալ արժեշղթաների խաթարման ռիսկերը ստիպում են վերարժևորել «անվտանգային այս բարձիկի» ներտնտեսական նշանակությունը։ Տնտեսության մեջ գյուղատնտեսական ոլորտի դերակատարման, դրա շուրջ ծավալվող զարգացուերի ու ակնկալիքների մասին է սույն հոդվածը, որտեղ փորձ է արվում թիրախավորելու գյուղատնտեսության խոցելի կողմերը՝ որպես տնտեսական աճի զսպող գործոն: Սակայն, օրակարգային է մնում հետևյալ հարցը. արդյո՞ք կարելի է աճի հույսեր փայփայել...
Amberd Bulletin, 2024
Հայաստանի տնտեսական զարգացումներն այնքան կտրուկ են և շատ հաճախ՝ իրավիճակային, որ նույնիսկ կարճաժա... more Հայաստանի տնտեսական զարգացումներն այնքան կտրուկ են և շատ հաճախ՝ իրավիճակային, որ նույնիսկ կարճաժամկետում կարելի է «որսալ» էական տեղաշարժեր տնտեսական աճի այս տատանողական շղթայում։ Եթե նախորդ 2 համարներում տեղ գտած հոդվածները նվիրել էինք արդյունաբերության ու ծառայությունների ոլորտների մութ անկյունների բացահայտմանը, ապա այս անգամ հերթն առևտրինն է։ Ծառայություններին շաղկապված այս ոլորտը շարունակում է բավական խոստումնալից աճ գրանցել։ Սակայն, օրակարգային է մնում հետևյալ հարցը. մինչև ե՞րբ կարելի է նման աճի հույս փայփայել... Այս և նույնաբնույթ հարցադրումների միջոցով փորձենք որոշակիություն հաղորդել աճի անորոշության այս հանգույցին։
AMBERD BULLETIN, 2024
With strong economic growth now in its second year, heated debate continues about economic growth... more With strong economic growth now in its second year, heated debate continues about economic growth, its feasibility, truthfulness, value and ultimately, inclusiveness. The debate centers on the mark left by high growth rates. Does this growth leave its mark on the lives of each of us, how evenly is it distributed across sub-sectors of the economy, can we have long-term hopes for this growth... These seemingly endless questions will be addressed in this and subsequent editions of a series of articles that examine the most noteworthy developments in growth-driven industries and highlight key expectations.
Messenger of ASUE, 2024
In the modern world, structural reforms' role in all spheres of economic and social life is impos... more In the modern world, structural reforms' role in all spheres of economic and social life is impossible to underestimate. The years following the multifaceted crises that hit the world economy in different periods of human history continuously proved that many countries, even with developed economies, could not independently return to the precrisis level of the main macroeconomic indicators. As a result, many leading nations of the world considered the implementation of structural reforms as the main factor for promoting growth, which spread to many countries with a domino effect. As a result, in the modern world, structural reforms are considered the main stimulus to ensure economic growth in the conditions of scarce resources and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. In this context, the analysis and consolidation of the evolution of theories regarding the nature of structural reforms, their economic significance, and the connection between the latter and the main macroeconomic variables (in particular, economic growth) becomes a prerequisite for studying the chain of reforms, which is the basis of this article.
MESSENGER OF ASUE , 2024
The article explores the dynamics of building material prices by examining global and local marke... more The article explores the dynamics of building material prices by examining global and local markets. The research identifies the factors influencing price fluctuations and investigates whether these factors stem from demand-side or supply-side influences. Based on the literature and collected data the research highlights that building materials, such as cement and steel, are
critical to the construction sector, with major producers including China, India, Turkey, Germany, and the US. While price developments are influenced by global supply-demand dynamics, raw material prices, trade policies, supply chain disruptions, and Chinas economic activity, the post-Covid spike in construction prices was driven by macroeconomic imbalances
and supply chain disruptions. Our empirical assessments imply, that this price spike was transferred to Armenia, as global prices are a key determinant for Armenia’s import-dependent construction sector. Another important determinant was Armenia’s GDP gap, with a transition
mechanism working through the demand for construction, and hence – demand for construction materials and inflationary pressures stemming from them. The research results imply, that business and policy planning in the construction sector can benefit from forecasting construction
prices given a realistic input of assumptions on external and domestic variables.
Proceedings on Engineering Sciences, Dec 14, 2023
Armenia imports all of its vegetable oil for domestic consumption, consisting mainly of sunflower... more Armenia imports all of its vegetable oil for domestic consumption, consisting mainly of sunflower oil imported almost entirely from Russia. Thus, the price in Armenia is formed based on the purchasing price, transportation costs, and margin. But the price movements in the Armenian retail market are not always consistent with the international markets, which rises the need for a comprehensive micro and macro-level analysis. In this article, the authors analyze the price value chains on micro-level data and reveal factors determining retail market price with econometric models. The analysis showed, that the key determinants are the international price of vegetable oil, USD/AMD exchange rate, and domestic inflationary factors. The article argues that the movements of the Armenian vegetable oil market are not always consistent with the changes in these factors: the market overreacts with increased margins during turbulent periods. This pattern was confirmed both in 2021 and 2022 when despite the divergence of Russian and international prices and the relative stability of the Armenian market, the analysis showed increased markups.
AMBERD BULLETIN
The struggle for hegemony among the world's economic giants is growing from year to year, man... more The struggle for hegemony among the world's economic giants is growing from year to year, manifesting itself in various ways, including ambitious endeavors to achieve dominance in the international currency market. Calls to abandon the massive use of the US dollar in international trade have received particularly wide resonance in the last decade. Moreover, the list of countries implementing such appeals is gradually expanding, ranging from Brazil to the countries of Southeast Asia. How realistic are these calls? Are there any grounds for the implementation of these ideas and what are the consequences of abandoning the US dollar in international trade?
AMBERD BULLETIN
The geopolitical realities formed as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, along with economic a... more The geopolitical realities formed as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, along with economic and political risks, gave the RA economy new positive impulses in 2022, which led to the consolidation of favorable positions in a number of important economic indicators. In this regard, the real estate market was no exception, which has reached a new level of activation along with the influx of Russian tourists and IT companies. The paper examines the realities recorded in the real estate market during 2022, the composition, structure and territorial distribution of transactions, as well as issues related to changes in the price level, in order to understand the impact of this sector on economic growth and the circumstances of its long-term nature.
Հրատարակության է երաշխավորել ՀՊՏՀ գիտական խորհուրդը Մասնագիտական խմբագիր` Հ. Գալստյան տնտեսագիտու... more Հրատարակության է երաշխավորել ՀՊՏՀ գիտական խորհուրդը Մասնագիտական խմբագիր` Հ. Գալստյան տնտեսագիտության թեկնածու Գրախոսներ` Ֆ. Մայիլյան տնտեսագիտության դոկտոր, դոցենտ Հ. Երիցյան տնտեսագիտության թեկնածու, դոցենտ Խմբագրական խորհուրդ` Դ. Գալոյան տ.գ.դ., պրոֆեսոր Թ. Մկրտչյան տ.գ.դ., դոցենտ Դ. Հախվերդյան տ.գ.դ., պրոֆեսոր Գ. Նազարյան տ.գ.թ., դոցենտ Հ 247 ՀՀ սահմանամերձ բնակավայրերի սոցիալ-տնտեսական զարգացման հայեցակարգային մոտեցումների մշակում (Գեղարքունիքի և Տավուշի մարզերի օրինակով) / Տ. Մարտիրոսյան և ուրիշներ.-Եր.: Տնտեսագետ, 2022.-էջ .-100 («Ամբերդ» մատենաշար 55):
Banber Hayastani petakan tntesagitakan hamalsarani, 2022
Introduction. Armenia consumes about 30,000 tons of vegetable oil annually, most of which, more t... more Introduction. Armenia consumes about 30,000 tons of vegetable oil annually, most of which, more than 90%, is sunflower oil. During the last 25 years, the volumes of vegetable oil consumed in the RA have continuously increased, and currently, it is a type of product that assumes daily consumption in the consumer basket of RA households, which acquires strategic importance in nutritional and social terms. Moreover, according to the RA Law "On Material Reserves" adopted on May 4, 2020, vegetable oils are also included in the list of strategic reserves, for a clear schedule for the accumulation of non-decreasing reserves of imported raw materialswhich is defined. 1 However, sunflower oil, which is a product of strategic importance, has been exclusively imported in recent years, although during the times of the Soviet Union Armenia produced volumes of production of vegetable oil, especially sunflower oil, (7.0-8.5 thousand tons of vegetable oil annually, which provided almost 60 percent of the consumer demand of the country). After independence, due to many objective and subjective reasons, the volume of vegetable oil production has significantly decreased-having a discrete character (sunflower oil in small volumes was produced in 2002-2003, 2006, and 2013-2014). However, even in the mentioned years with some volume of production domestic supply had an insignificant impact on the total consumption, and the demand for vegetable oil was completely or almost completely satisfied by import. This phenomenon is worrisome because meeting the domestic demand for vegetable oil depends solely on imports when there are both experience and capabilities for its production. Meanwhile, more than 95% of the vegetable oil imported to the RA is sourced from the Russian Federation, which means that the market of vegetable oil in the RA becomes vulnerable. The sensitivity of the vegetable oil market to external factors can be studied based on post-2020 events, like Covid-19, the Artsakh war, and the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the war. The latter led to turbulence in the RA vegetable oil market, when the market reacted with significant price increases (up to 87% for June 2021 compared to June 2020), or supply disruptions and shortages (April-May 2022). It should also be noted that the players in the RA vegetable oil market are exclusively the importing companies. Among them, there are large importers, which have a dominant market, and can have a decisive influence on the structure of the market. The oligopolistic characteristics of the RA vegetable oil
AMBERD BULLETIN
The geopolitical realities that emerged as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, along with econ... more The geopolitical realities that emerged as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, along with economic and political risks, opened up new opportunities for the three South Caucasian countries. The continuous influx of IT companies and tourists to these countries nullified the forecasts for the beginning of the year by various international structures, that aroused negative sentiments in the countries of the region. The paper examines the economic development of the countries of the region under the conditions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, considers the updated expectations of economic growth at the end of the year and how “sustainable” they are for these countries.
AMBERD BULLETIN
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) conducts studies, analyzes and evaluates possible development... more The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) conducts studies, analyzes and evaluates possible developments on the macroeconomic environment and developments of the member countries - Armenia, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan - on a monthly basis. The September report of the structure includes the statistics of the main macroeconomic indicators of the RA, in which, against the background of the general decline, a continuous increase in the economic activity index of the RA is observed. What are the main drivers of these developments, how are they interpreted by the EDB and what to expect from future developments?
AMBERD BULLETIN
In the last decade of the 20th century, a general trend emerged in the process of fiscal policy c... more In the last decade of the 20th century, a general trend emerged in the process of fiscal policy coordination: the introduction of fiscal rules that aimed at reducing or curbing the budget deficit, reducing public debt, and other goals. All rules had at least one thing in common - building confidence in the implementation of macroeconomic policies. The paper discusses the impact of the application of old and new fiscal rules in Armenia on the process of ensuring deficit and debt stability, the chain economic effect of underperformance of capital expenditures, as well as the consequences of deviations from fiscal rules due to «exceptional cases» in Armenia.
HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe), 2021
Վճռորոշ բառեր՝ «Մեկ գոտի, մեկ ճանապարհ» նախաձեռնություն, տնտեսական կապեր, զարգացման հեռանկարներ, ... more Վճռորոշ բառեր՝ «Մեկ գոտի, մեկ ճանապարհ» նախաձեռնություն, տնտեսական կապեր, զարգացման հեռանկարներ, հայ-չինական հարաբերություններ Необходимость и возможности развития армяно-китайской экономической повестки в рамках китайской инициативы «Один пояс, один путь»
AMBERD BULLETIN
Today, in addition to meeting domestic demand for electricity, Armenia also exports electricity t... more Today, in addition to meeting domestic demand for electricity, Armenia also exports electricity to neighboring countries. This fact indicates that the sector can be of vital and strategic importance for the development of the national economy and increasing the economic competitiveness of the country. Therefore, the further development of the sector and the more effective use of existing competitive opportunities can be the best preconditions for promoting the country's economic growth, increasing economic competitiveness and ensuring national security. The paper addresses the current trends in the modern energy system of the Republic of Armenia and the possible risks and challenges arising from them, as well as the motivations for the development of the sector by the public and private sectors.
Messenger of Armenian State University of Economics, 2021
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Papers by Narine Petrosyan
critical to the construction sector, with major producers including China, India, Turkey, Germany, and the US. While price developments are influenced by global supply-demand dynamics, raw material prices, trade policies, supply chain disruptions, and Chinas economic activity, the post-Covid spike in construction prices was driven by macroeconomic imbalances
and supply chain disruptions. Our empirical assessments imply, that this price spike was transferred to Armenia, as global prices are a key determinant for Armenia’s import-dependent construction sector. Another important determinant was Armenia’s GDP gap, with a transition
mechanism working through the demand for construction, and hence – demand for construction materials and inflationary pressures stemming from them. The research results imply, that business and policy planning in the construction sector can benefit from forecasting construction
prices given a realistic input of assumptions on external and domestic variables.
critical to the construction sector, with major producers including China, India, Turkey, Germany, and the US. While price developments are influenced by global supply-demand dynamics, raw material prices, trade policies, supply chain disruptions, and Chinas economic activity, the post-Covid spike in construction prices was driven by macroeconomic imbalances
and supply chain disruptions. Our empirical assessments imply, that this price spike was transferred to Armenia, as global prices are a key determinant for Armenia’s import-dependent construction sector. Another important determinant was Armenia’s GDP gap, with a transition
mechanism working through the demand for construction, and hence – demand for construction materials and inflationary pressures stemming from them. The research results imply, that business and policy planning in the construction sector can benefit from forecasting construction
prices given a realistic input of assumptions on external and domestic variables.