THE JOURNAL OF APPLIED BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS, 2017
This paper investigates the determinants of foreign exchange reserves in India by using Auto Regr... more This paper investigates the determinants of foreign exchange reserves in India by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model during 2000:Q1 to 2014: Q4 by using the variables such as foreign exchange reserve, nominal exchange rate, inflation, current account deficit, trade openness and short term debt/GDP. We found that in the long run, variables such as inflation and short term external debt/GDP affects the foreign exchange reserves. One percent increase in inflation reduces the foreign exchange reserves by 0.12% where as one percent increase in short term external debt/GDP increases the foreign exchange reserves by 0.46%. On the other hand, in the short run, exchange rate affects positively foreign exchange reserves of India.
We tested the mean reversion property of 46 agricultural commodities of India covering the period... more We tested the mean reversion property of 46 agricultural commodities of India covering the period 2000:M1-2013:M1. In doing so, we used two batteries of time series tests. One battery of test is associated with testing of the null hypothesis of a unit root whereas; second battery of test is associated with testing of the null hypothesis of stationarity. We find the robust evidence of stationarity for Betelnut/Arecanut, Black Pepper, Cardamom, Cummin, Garlic, Ginger (Fresh), Guava, Poultry chicken and Turmeric. This indicates that any policy to influence the prices of these commodities will not have a permanent impact as they have a tendency to revert to the mean. Thus, we recommend to the Policymakers/Government to review the commodity futures ban for these commodities. However, if Government/Policymakers wish to control the food prices, they need to make policies which influence the prices of the commodities exhibiting the unit root behaviour. And any policy shock to these commodit...
We evaluated the attractiveness of India as a destination of investment by firms by identifying t... more We evaluated the attractiveness of India as a destination of investment by firms by identifying the important determinants from literature review in the area. These determinants were put to pairwise comparisons in order to get judgements of respondents or experts to derive priority scales. Thus, the model for decision making by foreign investors to invest in India is shown by using multicriterial analysis, and Analytical Hierarchy Process. India may be the right place for doing business as emerged from evaluation which revealed that GDP and GDP growth rate are one of the important determinants for attracting firms in the country.
Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2019
This study analyses the crude oil import elasticity of demand during 1987-88 to 2016-17 by using ... more This study analyses the crude oil import elasticity of demand during 1987-88 to 2016-17 by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique. By using macroeconomic variables such as real crude oil price and real GDP an attempt is made to determine the long-run and short-run elasticities of crude oil demand in Indian context. In our empirical analysis, we found that the long-run income elasticity coefficient was found to be statistically significant with expected sign. It was found that the crude oil import demand is highly elastic to income in the long-run suggesting that a one percentage increase in GDP of India leads to a 2.89 percentage increase in crude oil import demand. It was also revealed that the responsiveness of international crude oil price changes in import demand are insignificant. We can say crude oil demand in India is very sensitive to income rather than price changes.One of the reasons might be full control of the retail price of the petroleum p...
In this paper, we examine the determinants of bilateral export demand function of India during 19... more In this paper, we examine the determinants of bilateral export demand function of India during 1993:Q1-2015:Q1. The starting point of our study is 1993:Q1 by keeping into consideration that RBI implemented market determined managed floating flexible exchange rate system during that period. We have employed Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model by using the macroeconomic variables such as real exports, foreign income, nominal exchange rate (Rupee-Dollar) and relative price. We found there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between real exports, foreign income, exchange rate and relative price. In our empirical analysis, we found that in the long run and short run, real exports are influenced more by foreign income followed by relative price. Foreign income carries a positive sign and is statistically significant, which implies that 1% increase in foreign income will increase real export by 1.63% in the long run. Likewise, relative price carries a negative sign and is statistically significant which implies 1% decrease in relative prices that will increase real exports by 0.22% in the long run. The nominal exchange rate carries a negative sign and is statistically significant (in both short run and long run), which suggests that depreciation of nominal exchange rate would not stimulate the volume of export during our study period. Hence, for policy point of view if any policy makers want to promote exports by depreciating, the rupee will not give fruitful results.
Asian journal of agriculture and development, 2017
The study analyzed the persistence of shocks to the seasonal time series of the price indices of ... more The study analyzed the persistence of shocks to the seasonal time series of the price indices of selected agricultural commodities in India. The seasonal unit root test procedure proposed by Hylleberg et al. (1990) and Beaulieu and Miron (1992) were used for 10 major price indices of agricultural commodities. The study covered the period January 2000 to January 2013. Overall results provide significant and robust evidence rejecting the presence of unit roots at all seasonal frequencies for cereals; condiments and spices; eggs, meat, and fish; pulses; and vegetables. For the rest of the commodities studied, evidence indicates that the seasonality present is partly deterministic and partly stationary stochastic. These findings have important policy implications for policymakers and research analysts.
Village forest is a managed state forest by village institution for the prosperity of villagers. ... more Village forest is a managed state forest by village institution for the prosperity of villagers. Village that has granted village forest is responsible for its utilization and its sustainability. The development of village forest in Buntoi Village is still at the preliminary stage; therefore the identification of environmental services, policy, institutional arrangements, and sustainable potential livelihood need to be conducted. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyse the potential of ecosystem services and influencing factors in the utilization of the ecosystem services. The result showed that there was lack of water services in the Buntoi village since there was no spring water in the forest. Also did not have the beauty of potential landscape that can attract tourists. Moreover, the potential of biodiversity and carbon sequestration in the village had not been optimised. Low utilization of ecosystem services in Buntoi was due to: (1) perceptions of stakeholders that had not yet support the utilization of ecosystem services; and (2) lack of support from district and provincial in the utilization of ecosystem services in village forest. Activities that can be developed to utilize biodiversity, beauty of landscape, and carbon conservation in Buntoi are ecotourism and REDD+ scheme..
We tested the mean reversion property of 46 agricultural commodities of India covering the period... more We tested the mean reversion property of 46 agricultural commodities of India covering the period 2000:M1-2013:M1. In doing so, we used two batteries of time series tests. One battery of test is associated with testing of the null hypothesis of a unit root whereas; second battery of test is associated with testing of the null hypothesis of stationarity. We find the robust evidence of stationarity for Betelnut/Arecanut, Black Pepper, Cardamom, Cummin, Garlic, Ginger (Fresh), Guava, Poultry chicken and Turmeric. This indicates that any policy to influence the prices of these commodities will not have a permanent impact as they have a tendency to revert to the mean. Thus, we recommend to the Policymakers/Government to review the commodity futures ban for these commodities. However, if Government/Policymakers wish to control the food prices, they need to make policies which influence the prices of the commodities exhibiting the unit root behaviour. And any policy shock to these commodities will have the permanent impact and therefore, the Government/Policymaker can consider for commodity futures ban. Authors
THE JOURNAL OF APPLIED BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS, 2017
This paper investigates the determinants of foreign exchange reserves in India by using Auto Regr... more This paper investigates the determinants of foreign exchange reserves in India by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model during 2000:Q1 to 2014: Q4 by using the variables such as foreign exchange reserve, nominal exchange rate, inflation, current account deficit, trade openness and short term debt/GDP. We found that in the long run, variables such as inflation and short term external debt/GDP affects the foreign exchange reserves. One percent increase in inflation reduces the foreign exchange reserves by 0.12% where as one percent increase in short term external debt/GDP increases the foreign exchange reserves by 0.46%. On the other hand, in the short run, exchange rate affects positively foreign exchange reserves of India.
We tested the mean reversion property of 46 agricultural commodities of India covering the period... more We tested the mean reversion property of 46 agricultural commodities of India covering the period 2000:M1-2013:M1. In doing so, we used two batteries of time series tests. One battery of test is associated with testing of the null hypothesis of a unit root whereas; second battery of test is associated with testing of the null hypothesis of stationarity. We find the robust evidence of stationarity for Betelnut/Arecanut, Black Pepper, Cardamom, Cummin, Garlic, Ginger (Fresh), Guava, Poultry chicken and Turmeric. This indicates that any policy to influence the prices of these commodities will not have a permanent impact as they have a tendency to revert to the mean. Thus, we recommend to the Policymakers/Government to review the commodity futures ban for these commodities. However, if Government/Policymakers wish to control the food prices, they need to make policies which influence the prices of the commodities exhibiting the unit root behaviour. And any policy shock to these commodit...
We evaluated the attractiveness of India as a destination of investment by firms by identifying t... more We evaluated the attractiveness of India as a destination of investment by firms by identifying the important determinants from literature review in the area. These determinants were put to pairwise comparisons in order to get judgements of respondents or experts to derive priority scales. Thus, the model for decision making by foreign investors to invest in India is shown by using multicriterial analysis, and Analytical Hierarchy Process. India may be the right place for doing business as emerged from evaluation which revealed that GDP and GDP growth rate are one of the important determinants for attracting firms in the country.
Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2019
This study analyses the crude oil import elasticity of demand during 1987-88 to 2016-17 by using ... more This study analyses the crude oil import elasticity of demand during 1987-88 to 2016-17 by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique. By using macroeconomic variables such as real crude oil price and real GDP an attempt is made to determine the long-run and short-run elasticities of crude oil demand in Indian context. In our empirical analysis, we found that the long-run income elasticity coefficient was found to be statistically significant with expected sign. It was found that the crude oil import demand is highly elastic to income in the long-run suggesting that a one percentage increase in GDP of India leads to a 2.89 percentage increase in crude oil import demand. It was also revealed that the responsiveness of international crude oil price changes in import demand are insignificant. We can say crude oil demand in India is very sensitive to income rather than price changes.One of the reasons might be full control of the retail price of the petroleum p...
In this paper, we examine the determinants of bilateral export demand function of India during 19... more In this paper, we examine the determinants of bilateral export demand function of India during 1993:Q1-2015:Q1. The starting point of our study is 1993:Q1 by keeping into consideration that RBI implemented market determined managed floating flexible exchange rate system during that period. We have employed Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model by using the macroeconomic variables such as real exports, foreign income, nominal exchange rate (Rupee-Dollar) and relative price. We found there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between real exports, foreign income, exchange rate and relative price. In our empirical analysis, we found that in the long run and short run, real exports are influenced more by foreign income followed by relative price. Foreign income carries a positive sign and is statistically significant, which implies that 1% increase in foreign income will increase real export by 1.63% in the long run. Likewise, relative price carries a negative sign and is statistically significant which implies 1% decrease in relative prices that will increase real exports by 0.22% in the long run. The nominal exchange rate carries a negative sign and is statistically significant (in both short run and long run), which suggests that depreciation of nominal exchange rate would not stimulate the volume of export during our study period. Hence, for policy point of view if any policy makers want to promote exports by depreciating, the rupee will not give fruitful results.
Asian journal of agriculture and development, 2017
The study analyzed the persistence of shocks to the seasonal time series of the price indices of ... more The study analyzed the persistence of shocks to the seasonal time series of the price indices of selected agricultural commodities in India. The seasonal unit root test procedure proposed by Hylleberg et al. (1990) and Beaulieu and Miron (1992) were used for 10 major price indices of agricultural commodities. The study covered the period January 2000 to January 2013. Overall results provide significant and robust evidence rejecting the presence of unit roots at all seasonal frequencies for cereals; condiments and spices; eggs, meat, and fish; pulses; and vegetables. For the rest of the commodities studied, evidence indicates that the seasonality present is partly deterministic and partly stationary stochastic. These findings have important policy implications for policymakers and research analysts.
Village forest is a managed state forest by village institution for the prosperity of villagers. ... more Village forest is a managed state forest by village institution for the prosperity of villagers. Village that has granted village forest is responsible for its utilization and its sustainability. The development of village forest in Buntoi Village is still at the preliminary stage; therefore the identification of environmental services, policy, institutional arrangements, and sustainable potential livelihood need to be conducted. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyse the potential of ecosystem services and influencing factors in the utilization of the ecosystem services. The result showed that there was lack of water services in the Buntoi village since there was no spring water in the forest. Also did not have the beauty of potential landscape that can attract tourists. Moreover, the potential of biodiversity and carbon sequestration in the village had not been optimised. Low utilization of ecosystem services in Buntoi was due to: (1) perceptions of stakeholders that had not yet support the utilization of ecosystem services; and (2) lack of support from district and provincial in the utilization of ecosystem services in village forest. Activities that can be developed to utilize biodiversity, beauty of landscape, and carbon conservation in Buntoi are ecotourism and REDD+ scheme..
We tested the mean reversion property of 46 agricultural commodities of India covering the period... more We tested the mean reversion property of 46 agricultural commodities of India covering the period 2000:M1-2013:M1. In doing so, we used two batteries of time series tests. One battery of test is associated with testing of the null hypothesis of a unit root whereas; second battery of test is associated with testing of the null hypothesis of stationarity. We find the robust evidence of stationarity for Betelnut/Arecanut, Black Pepper, Cardamom, Cummin, Garlic, Ginger (Fresh), Guava, Poultry chicken and Turmeric. This indicates that any policy to influence the prices of these commodities will not have a permanent impact as they have a tendency to revert to the mean. Thus, we recommend to the Policymakers/Government to review the commodity futures ban for these commodities. However, if Government/Policymakers wish to control the food prices, they need to make policies which influence the prices of the commodities exhibiting the unit root behaviour. And any policy shock to these commodities will have the permanent impact and therefore, the Government/Policymaker can consider for commodity futures ban. Authors
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Papers by subhendu dutta
In doing so, we used two batteries of time series tests. One battery of test is associated with testing of the null
hypothesis of a unit root whereas; second battery of test is associated with testing of the null hypothesis of stationarity.
We find the robust evidence of stationarity for Betelnut/Arecanut, Black Pepper, Cardamom, Cummin, Garlic, Ginger
(Fresh), Guava, Poultry chicken and Turmeric. This indicates that any policy to influence the prices of these
commodities will not have a permanent impact as they have a tendency to revert to the mean. Thus, we recommend
to the Policymakers/Government to review the commodity futures ban for these commodities. However, if
Government/Policymakers wish to control the food prices, they need to make policies which influence the prices of
the commodities exhibiting the unit root behaviour. And any policy shock to these commodities will have the
permanent impact and therefore, the Government/Policymaker can consider for commodity futures ban.
Authors
In doing so, we used two batteries of time series tests. One battery of test is associated with testing of the null
hypothesis of a unit root whereas; second battery of test is associated with testing of the null hypothesis of stationarity.
We find the robust evidence of stationarity for Betelnut/Arecanut, Black Pepper, Cardamom, Cummin, Garlic, Ginger
(Fresh), Guava, Poultry chicken and Turmeric. This indicates that any policy to influence the prices of these
commodities will not have a permanent impact as they have a tendency to revert to the mean. Thus, we recommend
to the Policymakers/Government to review the commodity futures ban for these commodities. However, if
Government/Policymakers wish to control the food prices, they need to make policies which influence the prices of
the commodities exhibiting the unit root behaviour. And any policy shock to these commodities will have the
permanent impact and therefore, the Government/Policymaker can consider for commodity futures ban.
Authors