Papers by sondoss elsawah
Sustaining water resources is a critical issue that face many Australian cities. To meet this cha... more Sustaining water resources is a critical issue that face many Australian cities. To meet this challenge, people’s decisions and behaviours are major factors to consider when making environmental change. Thus, it is essential to build an informed public understanding about the problem, plausible futures and potential solutions. Communication about complexity and uncertainty of water management is a challenging task for communication policies. System Dynamics (SD) provides a unique framework for learning and communication about the complexity and uncertainty of situations that arise in the management of scarce water resources. This paper describes the development of an SD model to aid communicating about water management in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The proposed model provides an opportunity to test the behaviour of water supply and demand in response to uncontrollable (e.g. climate conditions) drivers and management policies. This paper describes the completed model and...
Two of the basic tenets of decision support system efforts are to help identify and structure the... more Two of the basic tenets of decision support system efforts are to help identify and structure the decisions to be supported, and to then provide analysis in how those decisions might be best made. One example from wetland management would be that wildlife biologists must decide when to draw down water levels to optimise aquatic invertebrates as food for breeding ducks. Once such a decision is identified, a system or tool to help them make that decision in the face of current and projected climate conditions could be developed. We examined a random sample of 100 papers published from 2001-2011 in Environmental Modelling and Software that used the phrase "decision support system" or "decision support tool", and which are characteristic of different sectors. In our review, 41% of the systems and tools related to the water resources sector, 34% were related to agriculture, and 22% to the conservation of fish, wildlife, and protected area management. Only 60% of the papers were deemed to be reporting on DSS. This was based on the papers reviewed not having directly identified a specific decision to be supported. We also report on the techniques that were used to identify the decisions, such as formal survey, focus group, expert opinion, or sole judgment of the author(s). The primary underlying modelling system, e.g., expert system, agent based model, Bayesian belief network, geographical information system (GIS), and the like was categorised next. Finally, since decision support typically should target some aspect of unstructured decisions, we subjectively determined to what degree this was the case. In only 23% of the papers reviewed, did the system appear to tackle unstructured decisions. This knowledge should be useful in helping workers in the field develop more effective systems and tools, especially by being exposed to the approaches in different, but related, disciplines. We propose that a standard blueprint for reporting on DSS be developed for consideration by journal editors to aid them in filtering papers that use the term, "decision support".
Simulation & Gaming, 2015
ABSTRACT Background Unlike traditional communication approaches, simulation/gaming has the capaci... more ABSTRACT Background Unlike traditional communication approaches, simulation/gaming has the capacity to communicate about the complexity and uncertainty aspects of managing natural resources in engaging and informative ways.
The future management of freshwater resources for human and environmental needs requires an integ... more The future management of freshwater resources for human and environmental needs requires an integrated set of tools for predicting the relationship between climate change, water quality and ecological responses. In this paper, we present the early phases of a project for building a Bayesian network (BN) based framework to link ecological and water quality responses to features of the flow regime in the Molonglo and Yass rivers in southeastern Australia. At this stage, the objective is to conceptualize the modelling components and define causal links. Expert elicitation was used to identify important drivers and interactions which influence water quality attributes and related ecological responses.
Environmental Modelling & Software, 2015
ABSTRACT Bayesian networks (BNs) are a popular tool in natural resource management but are limite... more ABSTRACT Bayesian networks (BNs) are a popular tool in natural resource management but are limited when dealing with ecological assemblage data and when discretizing continuous variables. We present a method that addresses these challenges using a BN model developed for the Upper Murrumbidgee River Catchment (south-eastern Australia). A selection process was conducted to choose the taxa from the whole macroinvertebrate assemblage that were incorporated in the BN as endpoints. Furthermore, two different approaches to the discretization of continuous predictor variables for the BN were compared. One approach used Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN) which estimates the thresholds based on the biological community. The other approach used was the expert opinion. The TITAN-based discretizations provided comparable predictions to expert opinion-based discretizations but in combining statistical rigor and ecological relevance, offer a novel and objective approach to the discretization. The TITAN-based method may be used together with expert opinion.
Environmental Modelling & Software, 2015
Integrated assessment and its inherent platform, integrated modelling, present an opportunity to ... more Integrated assessment and its inherent platform, integrated modelling, present an opportunity to synthesize diverse knowledge, data, methods and perspectives into an overarching framework to address complex environmental problems. However to be successful for assessment or decision making purposes, all salient dimensions of integrated modelling must be addressed with respect to its purpose and context. The key dimensions include: issues of concern; management options and governance arrangements; stakeholders; natural systems; human systems; spatial scales; temporal scales; disciplines; methods, models, tools and data; and sources and types of uncertainty. This paper aims to shed light on these ten dimensions, and how integration of the dimensions fits in the four main phases in the integrated assessment process: scoping, problem framing and formulation, assessing options, and communicating findings. We provide examples of participatory processes and modelling tools that can be used to achieve integration.
Journal of Environmental Management, 2015
This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human element... more This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising:
Water Resources Management, 2013
ABSTRACT In complex socio-ecological systems, such as managing natural resources, human frames an... more ABSTRACT In complex socio-ecological systems, such as managing natural resources, human frames and mental models play a central role in deriving the system’s behaviour. Differences in stakeholder views and perceptions may impede the design and implementation of collective policies. Understanding stakeholder views and mental models is a pre-requisite for understanding decision making, improving communication, and eventually developing management policies that cater to the diversity of values and interests. Motivated by this premise, this research uses a cognitive mapping approach to examine the frames used by a group of water users with regard to managing available water resources. We focus on the Australian Capital Territory as a case study. Two different frames have emerged from the results: hard and soft. Differences in frames embody various perceptions about the problem definition, its causes, effective management strategies, and hence, responsibility attribution. The paper describes both frames and highlights those perceptions that may stand as barriers against sustainable management. These findings can be transferred to other arid and semi-arid areas.
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2014
The management of freshwater ecosystems is usually targeted through the regulation of water quant... more The management of freshwater ecosystems is usually targeted through the regulation of water quantity (limiting diversions and providing environmental flows) and regulation of water quality (setting limits or targets for constituent concentrations). Climate change is likely to affect water quantity and quality in multiple ways and the future management of freshwater ecosystems requires predictions of plausible future conditions. We use a suite of ecologically-relevant hydrological indicators to determine the significance of projected climate-driven hydrological changes in the Upper Murrumbidgee River Catchment in south eastern Australia in relation to river regulation. We also determine the possible water quality changes (in relation to guidelines for aquatic ecosystem protection) associated with the climate change projections to identify the combined effects of hydrological and water quality changes. The results of this study suggest that river regulation has resulted in greater changes to ecologically-relevant streamflow characteristics than climate change scenarios that involve a 1 and 2°C temperature rise in the Upper Murrumbidgee River Catchment. In contrast to the projected hydrological changes, Bayesian Network modelling suggests very small changes to violations of water quality thresholds designed to protect aquatic ecosystems as a result of climate change. By identifying key components of the flow and water quality regimes that may be affected by climate change, we are able to provide managers with information that assists in developing adaptation initiatives.
eco.confex.com
Addressing the challenges associated with Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) requires a... more Addressing the challenges associated with Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) requires advances and shifts towards systematic and social learning approaches. IWRM engages groups to explore collaborative decision making with the use of simulation ...
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2011
Our planet is increasingly threatened by degradation in water quantity and quality due to climate... more Our planet is increasingly threatened by degradation in water quantity and quality due to climate change, population growth and development pressures. Water shortage is one of the most challenging environmental problems to humankind in the 21st century under the changing climate. Water shortages and scarcity escalate risks to food security and economic viability. For decades, water management has been dominated by supply oriented paradigm of expanding the capacity of accessible water (e.g. building dams). While large scale infrastructure projects provided effective solutions for chronic water crises in the past, they have come at expensive, irreversible and delayed ecological, economic and social costs. As more questions are raised concerning over reliance on infrastructure solutions, discussions about a sustainable future suggest a greater focus on the demand side of the equation is needed. In this paper, we use multi-recursive and runoff coefficient analysis methods to analyze the annual runoff of the mainstreams (Kuye River, Tuwei River, Wuding River and Jialu River) in the middle reaches of Yellow River. The main objective is to estimate the impacts of climate change and human activity on water resources in the study area and test the potential of water demand management to lessen the gap between supply and demand. Results show remarkable drop in the average annual runoff as a combined effect of climate change and human activity. Moreover, results show that human activities are the direct reason for the changes of river runoff, and the proportion of human activities account the biggest is Wuding river, next is Kuye river, Jialu river is smallest, these changes lead to the decrease of river runoff, and even drying up in recent Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change years. This result highlights the importance of using WDM to diminish the increasing gap between demand and supply. Motivated by this, the paper presents a comprehensive framework for implementation WDM in the middle reaches of Yellow River. The framework includes a wide range of instruments: legislative, economic, technological and educational. The core step of the framework, collaboration among water planners, water service providers and end-users lies as an essential mechanism for achieving long term trade-offs between ecological and socio-economic water needs.
International Journal of Enterprise Information Systems, 2000
Environmental Modelling & Software, 2013
The design and implementation of effective environmental policies need to be informed by a holist... more The design and implementation of effective environmental policies need to be informed by a holistic understanding of the system processes (biophysical, social and economic), their complex interactions, and how they respond to various changes. Models, integrating different system processes into a unified framework, are seen as useful tools to help analyse alternatives with stakeholders, assess their outcomes, and communicate results in a transparent way. This paper reviews five common approaches or model types that have the capacity to integrate knowledge by developing models that can accommodate multiple issues, values, scales and uncertainty considerations, as well as facilitate stakeholder engagement. The approaches considered are: systems dynamics, Bayesian networks, coupled component models, agent-based models and knowledge-based models (also referred to as expert systems). We start by discussing several considerations in model development, such as the purpose of model building, the availability of qualitative versus quantitative data for model specification, the level of spatio-temporal detail required, and treatment of uncertainty. These considerations and a review of applications are then used to develop a framework that aims to assist modellers and model users in the choice of an appropriate modelling approach for their integrated assessment applications and that enables more effective learning in interdisciplinary settings.
Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2011
Water security is an integral aspect of the socio-economic development in China. Nevertheless, wa... more Water security is an integral aspect of the socio-economic development in China. Nevertheless, water resources are under persistent pressures because of the growing population, heavy irrigation, climate change effects and short-term policies. Traditional management approaches narrowly focus on increasing supply and reducing demand without considering the complex interactions and feedback loops that govern water resource behaviour. Whereas these approaches may provide quick fix solutions, they often lead to unanticipated, sometimes catastrophic, delayed outcomes. Therefore, water management needs to take a holistic approach that caters to the interdependent physical Readers should send their comments on this paper to [email protected] within 3 months of publication of this issue.
Despite the perceived value of DSS in informing environmental and natural resource management, DS... more Despite the perceived value of DSS in informing environmental and natural resource management, DSS tools often fail to be adopted by intended end users. By drawing together the experience of a global group of EDSS developers, we have identified and assessed key challenges in EDSS development and offer recommendations to resolve them. Challenges related to engaging end users in EDSS development emphasise the need for a participatory process that embraces end users and stakeholders throughout the design and development process. Adoption challenges concerned with individual and organisational capacities to use EDSS and the match between EDSS and organisational goals can be overcome through the use of an internal champion to promote the EDSS at different levels of a target organisation; coordinate and build capacity within the organisation, and; ensure that developers maintain focus on developing EDSS which are relatively easy and inexpensive to use and update (and which are perceived as such by the target users). Significant challenges exist in relation to ensuring EDSS longevity and financial sustainability. Such business challenges may be met through planning and design that considers the long-term costs of training, support, and maintenance; revenue generation and licensing by instituting processes which support communication and interactions; and by employing software technology which enables easy model expansion and re use to gain an economy of scale and reduce development costs. A final group of perhaps more problematic challenges relate to how the success of EDSS ought to be q Position papers aim to synthesise some key aspect of the knowledge platform for environmental modelling and software issues.
2010 18th IEEE International Requirements Engineering Conference, 2010
Abstract Water management arises in the context of social systems where human perceptions form th... more Abstract Water management arises in the context of social systems where human perceptions form the basis for problem definition. Actors construct various cognitive interpretations of the problem causes, and therefore, preferred solutions and responsibility ...
Journal of Applied Ecology, 2015
Since the inception of System Dynamics (SD) modelling and simulation around 50 years ago, researc... more Since the inception of System Dynamics (SD) modelling and simulation around 50 years ago, researchers and practitioners have sought to foster in-depth understandings of complex, dynamic problem situations with the aim of improving individual and group strategy-development and decision-making performance. Whilst considered by many to be a mature discipline, SD still falls short of being universally accepted by managers and
The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) is increasingly threatened by risks to its water security ... more The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) is increasingly threatened by risks to its water security driven by climate change effects, growing population and water-intensive lifestyle. As an inland territory, the ACT has few supply options which are economically and ecologically expensive. Demand management strategies seek to deliver sustainable consumption patterns. Effective communication is an essential part for achieving resilient reductions in
Uploads
Papers by sondoss elsawah