Ship collisions are rare occurrences with a potential to cause significant human, monetary and/or... more Ship collisions are rare occurrences with a potential to cause significant human, monetary and/or environmental loss. One element in preventing collision accidents is the presence of a collision alert system (CAS), providing warnings to ship crews and/or personnel in Vessel Traffic Services of the collision risk in a real-time operational environment. In risk research, there is a recent focus on foundational issues related to risk concepts, perspectives and methods for describing risk, with calls for work addressing these risk-theoretical issues in application areas. Despite several proposed applications for CAS, no frameworks covering these risk-theoretic issues have been presented. Hence, the purpose of this paper is twofold. First, a framework for maritime risk-informed CAS (RICAS) is presented, including a risk-conceptual basis, a systematic description of the risk perspective and a discussion on the intended use of the risk model. A theoretical framework for the operationalization of the construct ''ship collision risk'' is presented, and a method for measuring this construct is introduced. Second, the framework is applied to a case-study concerning open sea navigation. An evaluation of the proposed RICAS in comparison with earlier proposed CAS methods indicates an improved performance over these.
In this paper, we introduce a framework evaluating a critical distance between two encountering s... more In this paper, we introduce a framework evaluating a critical distance between two encountering ships being on collision courses, at which the collision can be avoided by course alteration of give-way ship alone. This distance is determined with the use of a hydrodynamic model of ship motion, and series of simulations conducted for several types of encounters and predefined two types of ships, namely Ro-Ro and bulk carrier. The framework delivers results in a form of a deterministic critical envelope around a stand-on ship, delineating the area required by the give-way ship to perform collision evasive action. The concept of MDTC contour is promising and could lead to rising marine traffic safety level by increasing the situational awareness among navigators. Once the concept is fully developed it could be implemented as a part of collision evasive solutions or a part of e-navigation systems, informing the officers about the critical distance and time to commence a successful last c...
The probability of an accident in transportation systems can serve as a measure of these systems ... more The probability of an accident in transportation systems can serve as a measure of these systems safety or risk, depending on the objective. Therefore numerous methods and models for risk evaluation, with respect to maritime, have been developed. However, these models are either too simplified, allowing relatively fast analysis but very often missing the substantial links among the model variables, or they are too slow for effective analysis, due to computational complexity, not necessarily backed-up with the complexity of the model itself. Thereby, this paper introduces a novel method evaluating the probability of ship-ship collision in the maritime transportation system focusing on the open sea collisions, applying the queuing theory in the simulation model. The model allows relatively fast prediction as it focuses on the specific events (e.g. accidents), instead of simulating the whole traffic. To support this hypothesis a case study is presented focusing on a selected element of...
Ship traffic poses various risks in terms of human casualty, damage to the environment and econom... more Ship traffic poses various risks in terms of human casualty, damage to the environment and economic loss. In a busy and ecologically vulnerable sea area such as the Gulf of Finland, the risks are considerable. Various analyses can provide an understanding of the safety level of maritime traffic: e.g. analytical or simulation models, accident data, Bayesian networks and fault trees. In this paper, the risk of vessel collisions in the open sea area of the Gulf of Finland is studied by identifying near misses, for summer traffic only. These are identified from AIS data using the established concept of the ship domain. This domain is defined as the area around a vessel which navigators try to keep clear for safety reasons. The near miss detection methodology and its challenges are described, some results are presented and comments are given.
TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, 2013
Ship traffic is one of the factors that is presented in almost all of the existing grounding mode... more Ship traffic is one of the factors that is presented in almost all of the existing grounding models, and is considered as one of the affecting factors on the likelihood of grounding accident. This effect in grounding accident is mostly accepted by the experts as a common sense or simply by just generalizing the ship-ship collision cases to grounding accidents. There is no available research on the actual causal link between the ship traffic and grounding accident in the literature. In this paper, authors have utilized the statistical analysis on historical grounding accident data in the Gulf of Finland between the years 1989 and 2010 and the AIS data of the same area in year 2010, as the source of ship traffic data, to investigate the possible existence of any correlation between the ship traffic and the grounding accident. The results show that for the studied area (Gulf of Finland) there is no correlation between the traffic density and the grounding accident. However, the possibility of the existence of minor relation between the traffic distribution and grounding accident is shown by the result. This finding, however, needs further investigation for more clarification.
This paper presents an extended risk assessment for a ship-ship collision where the struck ship i... more This paper presents an extended risk assessment for a ship-ship collision where the struck ship is a RoPax vessel in an open sea area. The assessment combines state-of-the-art engineering models for assessing probabilities of events and their consequences in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The overall model rationale is briefly outlined and abridged results are shown.
Ship collisions are rare occurrences with a potential to cause significant human, monetary and/or... more Ship collisions are rare occurrences with a potential to cause significant human, monetary and/or environmental loss. One element in preventing collision accidents is the presence of a collision alert system (CAS), providing warnings to ship crews and/or personnel in Vessel Traffic Services of the collision risk in a real-time operational environment. In risk research, there is a recent focus on foundational issues related to risk concepts, perspectives and methods for describing risk, with calls for work addressing these risk-theoretical issues in application areas. Despite several proposed applications for CAS, no frameworks covering these risk-theoretic issues have been presented. Hence, the purpose of this paper is twofold. First, a framework for maritime risk-informed CAS (RICAS) is presented, including a risk-conceptual basis, a systematic description of the risk perspective and a discussion on the intended use of the risk model. A theoretical framework for the operationalization of the construct ''ship collision risk'' is presented, and a method for measuring this construct is introduced. Second, the framework is applied to a case-study concerning open sea navigation. An evaluation of the proposed RICAS in comparison with earlier proposed CAS methods indicates an improved performance over these.
In this paper, we introduce a framework evaluating a critical distance between two encountering s... more In this paper, we introduce a framework evaluating a critical distance between two encountering ships being on collision courses, at which the collision can be avoided by course alteration of give-way ship alone. This distance is determined with the use of a hydrodynamic model of ship motion, and series of simulations conducted for several types of encounters and predefined two types of ships, namely Ro-Ro and bulk carrier. The framework delivers results in a form of a deterministic critical envelope around a stand-on ship, delineating the area required by the give-way ship to perform collision evasive action. The concept of MDTC contour is promising and could lead to rising marine traffic safety level by increasing the situational awareness among navigators. Once the concept is fully developed it could be implemented as a part of collision evasive solutions or a part of e-navigation systems, informing the officers about the critical distance and time to commence a successful last c...
The probability of an accident in transportation systems can serve as a measure of these systems ... more The probability of an accident in transportation systems can serve as a measure of these systems safety or risk, depending on the objective. Therefore numerous methods and models for risk evaluation, with respect to maritime, have been developed. However, these models are either too simplified, allowing relatively fast analysis but very often missing the substantial links among the model variables, or they are too slow for effective analysis, due to computational complexity, not necessarily backed-up with the complexity of the model itself. Thereby, this paper introduces a novel method evaluating the probability of ship-ship collision in the maritime transportation system focusing on the open sea collisions, applying the queuing theory in the simulation model. The model allows relatively fast prediction as it focuses on the specific events (e.g. accidents), instead of simulating the whole traffic. To support this hypothesis a case study is presented focusing on a selected element of...
Ship traffic poses various risks in terms of human casualty, damage to the environment and econom... more Ship traffic poses various risks in terms of human casualty, damage to the environment and economic loss. In a busy and ecologically vulnerable sea area such as the Gulf of Finland, the risks are considerable. Various analyses can provide an understanding of the safety level of maritime traffic: e.g. analytical or simulation models, accident data, Bayesian networks and fault trees. In this paper, the risk of vessel collisions in the open sea area of the Gulf of Finland is studied by identifying near misses, for summer traffic only. These are identified from AIS data using the established concept of the ship domain. This domain is defined as the area around a vessel which navigators try to keep clear for safety reasons. The near miss detection methodology and its challenges are described, some results are presented and comments are given.
TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, 2013
Ship traffic is one of the factors that is presented in almost all of the existing grounding mode... more Ship traffic is one of the factors that is presented in almost all of the existing grounding models, and is considered as one of the affecting factors on the likelihood of grounding accident. This effect in grounding accident is mostly accepted by the experts as a common sense or simply by just generalizing the ship-ship collision cases to grounding accidents. There is no available research on the actual causal link between the ship traffic and grounding accident in the literature. In this paper, authors have utilized the statistical analysis on historical grounding accident data in the Gulf of Finland between the years 1989 and 2010 and the AIS data of the same area in year 2010, as the source of ship traffic data, to investigate the possible existence of any correlation between the ship traffic and the grounding accident. The results show that for the studied area (Gulf of Finland) there is no correlation between the traffic density and the grounding accident. However, the possibility of the existence of minor relation between the traffic distribution and grounding accident is shown by the result. This finding, however, needs further investigation for more clarification.
This paper presents an extended risk assessment for a ship-ship collision where the struck ship i... more This paper presents an extended risk assessment for a ship-ship collision where the struck ship is a RoPax vessel in an open sea area. The assessment combines state-of-the-art engineering models for assessing probabilities of events and their consequences in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The overall model rationale is briefly outlined and abridged results are shown.
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Papers by Jakub Montewka