Papers by Jonathan Fulton
The Persian Gulf regional security complex is shaped by intense competition between regional stat... more The Persian Gulf regional security complex is shaped by intense competition between regional states and, since the aftermath of Operation Desert Storm, US military preponderance. US security cooperation with the Gulf Cooperation Council member states has sustained a status quo that has allowed extra-regional countries to advance their interests without making significant contributions to regional stability. An examination of the presence of five Asian countries (China, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea) in the Gulf suggests that, as the US signals intentions to reduce its security commitments to the region, the perception of hegemonic retreat will influence the regional policies adopted by these Asian countries. A further and related consideration is the 'great-power competition' narrative that is driving politics at the systemic level. The US-China bilateral relationship will have a significant impact on extra-regional powers' approach to the Gulf.
Middle East Policy, 2021
China's deepening ties to Iran, evident in the comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP) signed i... more China's deepening ties to Iran, evident in the comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP) signed in 2021 after five years of stalled progress, is not an indication of a revisionist Chinese approach to the Gulf region. In fact, its CSPs with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, already activated and implemented, are at far more mature levels, commensurate with China's deep levels of economic and political engagement with the Arab side of the Gulf. This is consistent with a strategic hedging approach that Beijing has used to build a sustainable presence without disrupting a competitive and fragile regional order. With far larger and more diverse interests in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, China's partnership with Iran creates leverage due to the asymmetry inherent in the China-Iran relationship. In an intensely competitive regional order like the Gulf, the prevailing assumption is that extraregional powers with deep interests cannot sit on the fence indefinitely. Eventually they will have to pick a side. This thinking has long featured in analysis of China's relations with Gulf countries and continues to confound those who anticipate its adopting a more conventional approach. However, Beijing's engagement with both Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is a strategic opportunity made available by US security commitments to the Gulf monarchies, and as long as that remains the case we can expect China to continue straddling both sides of the Gulf. It does not imply neutrality, however. China's regional interests favor the Arab side, and its preference for the status quo provides opportunities for policy coordination with Beijing for both the United States and the GCC countries. This point has become more important since the summer of 2020, when a leaked document supposedly provided details of what some interpreted as the end of China's fence-sitting: a 25-year partnership agreement with Iran that included ambitious targets for cooperation in the
The Indo-Pacific has become more prominent internationally since President Trump’s administration... more The Indo-Pacific has become more prominent internationally since President Trump’s administration began using it instead of the Asia-Pacific – a term more commonly used by his predecessors. This change in terminology largely appears to be a response to China’s growing influence across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean, as its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) expands. The Trump administration’s approach to the Indo-Pacific indicates an attempt to limit Chinese gains, a contrast to previous U.S. administrations’ efforts to integrate China into the liberal order. This could potentially lead to balancing behavior across Eurasia, with competition increasing in multiple Asian regions. The Gulf, deeply embedded in the American-led liberal order while increasingly engaged with China, is a region that could be affected by Sino-American competition, as economic and strategic interests of external powers come into play at a time when the regional order is undergoing change. This confluence of tensions – at both the international and regional levels – will influence the Gulf’s political, economic, and security environment.
Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 2020
2020 marks the 30th anniversary of China-Saudi Arabia diplomatic relations, and over this time th... more 2020 marks the 30th anniversary of China-Saudi Arabia diplomatic relations, and over this time the relationship has evolved from one of marginal significance to a comprehensive strategic partner- ship. As China’s role in the Middle East expands, the partnership with Saudi Arabia will increase in importance. This article analyses the bilateral relationship by using the ‘1!2!3’ cooperation pat- tern as a framework. Introduced during the 2014 China-Arab States Cooperation Forum, this pattern articulates the cooperation priorities Beijing will focus on while engaging with Arab states: energy, trade and investment, infrastructure, nuclear energy, space satellite, and renewable energy. By analysing levels of China-Saudi cooperation through the ‘1 ! 2 ! 3’ we can determine the relative success of the initiative, anticipate the near-term tra- jectory of the bilateral relationship, and develop a framework for measuring China’s relations with other key states in the Middle East.
Asian Politics & Politics, 2020
Saudi Arabia's geostrategic location and role as a Middle East regional power, combined with its ... more Saudi Arabia's geostrategic location and role as a Middle East regional power, combined with its ambitious Saudi Vision 2030 development plan, make it an important Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partner for China, which has become Saudi Arabia's largest trading partner. Despite mutual interests, the role of the United States as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf region means that the Sino‐Saudi Arabia relationship must be managed in such a way that it does not directly challenge Washington. This article argues that China has followed a strategic hedging approach in developing its relations with Saudi Arabia, focusing on the economic and developmental goals of the BRI and Saudi Vision 2030 to avoid antagonizing the United States (US) while taking advantage of US regional security commitments.
Atlantic Council, 2020
Scowcroft and his tireless efforts to build a new security architecture for the region. Our work ... more Scowcroft and his tireless efforts to build a new security architecture for the region. Our work in this area addresses the full range of security threats and challenges including the danger of interstate warfare, the role of terrorist groups and other nonstate actors, and the underlying security threats facing countries in the region. Through all of the Council's Middle East programming, we work with allies and partners in Europe and the wider Middle East to protect US interests, build peace and security, and unlock the human potential of the region. You can read more about our programs at www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/middle-east-programs/.
While normalization between the UAE and Israel is probably not the game-changer some believe it t... more While normalization between the UAE and Israel is probably not the game-changer some believe it to be, it does firm up a changing regional environment. The deal will create a new dynamic on three levels: domestic, regional, and international. Expect more pieces to fall into place soon as other countries adjust. The announcement that Israel and the UAE are normalizing relations is less of an earthquake than it might appear, as Israel and several Gulf states have been moving in that direction. The breakthrough appears to be the logical outcome of the trajectory followed by PM Benjamin Netanyahu and the UAE's Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Zayed, who have had secret diplomatic contacts for some time. Their agreement is the third peace deal between Israel and an Arab country, following Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994). It will create a new dynamic on three levels: domestic, regional, and international.
Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 2020
Primarily using an outside-in approach, this paper explores the nature of China and Russia’s more... more Primarily using an outside-in approach, this paper explores the nature of China and Russia’s more active bilateral engagement with the UAE. It finds that in an environment where political instability within the larger Middle East combines with uncertainty about US intentions, regional leaders and leaders of extra-regional powers with interests in the Persian Gulf have to adjust accordingly, either to protect those interests or to take advantage of the opportunity to expand their presence in a strategically and economically important theatre.
Regions in the Belt and Road Initiative, 2020
Journal of Arabian Studies, 2019
In the summer of 2018 China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) upgraded their bilateral relations... more In the summer of 2018 China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) upgraded their bilateral relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, China’s highest level of diplomatic relations. This follows a trajectory of deepening multifaceted ties that has been steadily becoming strategically important for both states, especially as China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, results in deeper engagement in the Middle East. This article examines the features of the China-UAE relationship, providing an original historical framework that explains the context of relations through four periods prior to the BRI: indifference, hostility, transition, and interdependence. It then analyzes developments in the bilateral relationship during the early stages of the BRI, demonstrating that the UAE has become a key partner for China in its Middle East policy.
Routledge Handbook of Persian Gulf Politics, 2020
Regions in the Belt and Road Initiative, 2020
Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, 2020
Atlantic Council MENASource
CHINA'S GREAT GAME IN THE MIDDLE EAST - European Council on Foreign Relations, 2019
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Papers by Jonathan Fulton
At the theoretical level, Buzan and Waever’s work on regional security complexes is used to develop a framework for analyzing the current impact of the BRI and its potential future effects within these regions, while the case studies explore the extent to which different International Relations and International Political Economy theories explain change in these relationships as the regional security environment shifts. The contributors address questions as diverse as the domestic political and economic drivers impacting the level of BRI cooperation; the effects of cooperation with the US; as well as the historical political and economic risk considerations for China in pursuing BRI cooperation; and the motivations of regional responses to the BRI and rivalries and variations in those responses.
This book will be of interest to academics working in the fields of Chinese foreign policy, International Relations, International Political Economy, and area studies. Professionals in the corporate world and Governmental practitioners and non-government agencies will also find the contributions useful.
This book analyses the changing dynamic in this region, with expert contributors providing original empirical case studies that examine the relations between the Gulf monarchies and extra-regional powers, including the USA, Russia, China, India, Brazil, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, France, and the United Kingdom. At the theoretical level, these case studies explore the extent to which different international relations and international political economy theories explain change in these relationships as the regional, political and security environment shifts. Focusing on how and why external powers approach their relationships with the Gulf monarchies, contributors ask what motivates external powers to pursue deeper involvement in an unstable region that has seen three major conflicts in the past 40 years.
Addressing an under-analysed, yet important topic, the volume will appeal to scholars in the fields of international relations and international political economy as well as area specialists on the Gulf and those working on the foreign policy issues of the extra-regional powers studied.
This book uses neoclassical realism to analyse the evolution of Sino-GCC relations. Examining the pressures that shaped China’s policy toward the Arab Gulf monarchies, it demonstrates that systemic considerations have been predominant since 1949, yet domestic political considerations were also always an important consideration. Relations are examined across diplomatic and political interactions, trade and investment, infrastructure and construction projects, people-to-people exchanges, and military and security cooperation.
This book will appeal to scholars in the fields of International Relations and International Political Economy, as well as area specialists on China, the Persian Gulf, the Arab Gulf Monarchies, and those working on foreign policy issues.