By Jessica Wright
EXCLUSIVE POLL
Public support for a republic has slumped to a 16-year low with more Australians in favour of retaining the monarchy for now.
A Sun-Herald/Nielsen poll conducted two weeks before the federal election showed that - when asked straight out if Australia should become a republic - 48 per cent of the 1400 respondents were opposed to constitutional change (a rise of 8 per cent since 2008) while 44 per cent said we should change (a drop of 8 per cent since 2008). But when asked which of the following statements best described their view:
Australia is not likely to become a republic before the end of the reign of Queen Elizabeth II.
- 31 per cent said Australia should never become a republic.
- 29 per cent said Australia should become a republic as soon as possible.
- 34 per cent said Australia should become a republic only after Queen Elizabeth II's reign ends.
Backing for a republic is at its lowest since 1994 - five years before Australia had a referendum on the topic.
Nielsen pollster John Stirton said yesterday that, despite the slump, there was a sense of inevitability Australia would one day become a republic with a large number backing Prime Minister Julia Gillard's stance that the issue should be closely considered after a change of monarchy.
"These results suggest Australians will be more likely to support a republic when Queen Elizabeth II is no longer on the throne," he said.
Our top politicians are divided over the republic issue. During the election campaign Ms Gillard echoed the sentiments of her predecessor, Kevin Rudd, who said a republic was not a first-term priority and would only be considered after a monarch change. Ms Gillard said a Labor government would work towards an agreement on the type of republic model - a sticking point in the 1999 defeat of the referendum.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott - an open monarchist along with his mentor and former leader John Howard - said Australians had shown little desire for change. He would not seek to put the republic question to a vote under a Coalition government.
''The Australian people have demonstrated themselves to be remarkably attached to institutions that work,'' he said. ''I think that our existing constitutional arrangements have worked well in the past. I see no reason whatsoever why they can't continue to work well in the future.
Of the three independent MPs being courted by the major parties in the House of Representatives, Rob Oakeshott is a republican but Bob Katter and Tony Windsor prefer the status quo. Significantly, each of the independents represent electorates which were strongly opposed to the 1999 referendum. Kennedy recorded a 70.21 per cent vote against the republic, New England 67.39 per cent and Lyne 61.59 per cent.
Greens Leader Bob Brown introduced a bill in the Senate for a plebiscite to be held at the election. The motion was defeated but he said yesterday it was ''high time we replaced the Union Jack with a dinkum Australian symbol on our flag.''
Former opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull, who led the republican movement for seven years before entering Parliament, said yesterday ''the best prospect and time for debate to get enough momentum to carry through is probably after the end of the Queen's reign''.
Australian of the Year Patrick McGorry, speaking at the national republican lecture in Canberra on Thursday, called on the nation to grow up: ''An Australian republic will allow Australia to accept its own unique and complex identity, which includes indigenous Australia and our immigrant heritage.''
But Australians for Constitutional Monarchy head David Flint said his assessment was curious.''Nations aren't individuals on a psychologist's couch … it would be foolish to change those institutions purely on the basis of a psychiatrist making some analogy with the immature.''
THEY SAID ...
PATRICK McGORRY Australian of the Year
"Australia's adolescence has lasted more than 100 years … It is time for Australia to pass the test of maturity and emerge from its prolonged adolescence into the full flower of independent adulthood as the republic of Australia.''
JULIA GILLARD Prime Minister
''The appropriate time to be a republic is when we see the monarch change. Obviously, I'm hoping for Queen Elizabeth that she lives a long and happy life, and having watched her mother I think there's every chance she will.''
TONY ABBOTT Opposition Leader
''I think that our existing constitutional arrangements have worked well in the past. I see no reason whatsoever why they can't continue to work well in the future.''
BOB BROWN Greens leader
''It is high time we replaced the Union Jack with a dinkum Australian symbol on our flag. There can be no reason to delay at least holding a plebiscite on whether or not Australia wants to become a republic.''
MALCOLM TURNBULL Former leader of republic movement
''The best prospect and time for debate is probably after the end of the Queen's reign. This is recognising how hard it is to change the constitution. To have it amended you need almost no opposition.''
DAVID FLINT Australians for Constitutional Monarchy
''We are one of the world's oldest and stable democracies, and we have a constitution which has been extraordinarily and unusually successful.''
JOHN WARHURST Deputy chairman Australian Republican Movement
''Even if we believe we should wait until the Queen dies, we should be making preparations beforehand because this is a process that will take several years at least.''