Climate Change

Climate Change Science

• WHY THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• Eliminating all CO2 emissions from the built environment
by 2040 meets the 1.5°Climate target.
https://www.epa.gov/climatechange-science/
basics-climate-change
Overview of Oxygen Isotope Analysis
1.Isotope Basics:
Oxygen has three stable isotopes: 16^{16}16O, 17^{17}17O, and 18^{18}18O. The ratio of 18^{18}18O to 16^{16}16O in
water (H2O) varies with temperature, with lighter isotopes evaporating and condensing more readily than heavier ones.
2.Temperature and Isotope Ratio:
As snow forms and falls, the ratio of oxygen isotopes is influenced by the temperature of the water vapor in the atmosphere.
Colder temperatures typically result in a higher ratio of 16^{16}16O in the snow, while warmer temperatures yield a higher
proportion of 18^{18}18O.
Methodology
3.Sample Collection:
Collect snow samples during snowfall events. It's crucial to ensure samples are taken from undisturbed areas to avoid
contamination.
4.Melting and Preparation:
Melt the snow samples in a controlled environment to prevent isotopic fractionation that can occur during melting.
5.Isotope Ratio Measurement:
Use a mass spectrometer to analyze the oxygen isotopic composition of the water. The instrument will measure the ratio of
18^{18}18O to 16^{16}16O.
6.Calibration and Comparison:
Compare the measured isotopic ratios to established temperature proxies and modern datasets. This often involves using
calibration equations derived from observational data correlating isotopic ratios with temperature.
Interpretation
7.Data Analysis:
Analyze the isotopic data in conjunction with other climate data (e.g., historical temperature records) to draw conclusions about
past temperature conditions during snowfall events.
8.Reconstruction of Past Climates:
The data can be used to reconstruct historical climate patterns, aiding in the understanding of how temperature and precipitation
have changed over time.
Applications
This method is valuable for paleoclimatology, allowing researchers to study historical climate changes, understand glacial cycles,
and inform models predicting future climate scenarios. It also helps in understanding local and regional climate dynamics by
examining variations in isotope ratios over time.
Basics of Climate Change
The Greenhouse Effect
Key Greenhouse Gases
Other Greenhouse Gases
Aerosols
Climate Feedbacks
The Greenhouse Effect

• The earth's temperature depends on

the balance between energy entering
and leaving the planet’s system.
When sunlight reaches the earth’s
surface, it can either be reflected back
into space or absorbed by the earth.
Incoming energy that is absorbed by
the earth warms the planet. Once
absorbed, the planet releases some of
the energy back into the atmosphere
as heat (also called infrared radiation).
Solar energy that is reflected back to
space does not warm the earth
Global Energy Flows (
)
The atmosphere
radiates the
equivalent
of 59% of incoming
sunlight back to
space as thermal
infrared energy, or
heat.Jan 14, 2009
• Certain gases in the atmosphere absorb energy, slowing
or preventing the loss of heat to space. Those gases are
known as “greenhouse gases.” They act like a blanket,
making the earth warmer than it would otherwise be.
This process, commonly known as the “greenhouse
effect,” is natural and necessary to support life.
However, the recent buildup of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere from human activities has changed the
earth's climate and resulted in dangerous effects to
human health and welfare and to ecosystems.
Key Greenhouse Gases
Nitrogen-based fertilizers spur
greenhouse gas emissions by
stimulating microbes in the soil to
produce more nitrous oxide. Nitrous
oxide is the third most important
greenhouse gas, behind carbon dioxide
and methane

• Key Greenhouse Gases

Most of the warming since 1950 has been caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases.4 Greenhouse gases
come from a variety of human activities, including burning fossil fuels for heat and energy, clearing forests,
fertilizing crops, storing waste in landfills, raising livestock, and producing some kinds of industrial products.
• Carbon Dioxide
Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas contributing to recent climate change. Carbon dioxide enters the
atmosphere through burning fossil fuels, solid waste, trees, and other biological materials, and as a result of
certain chemical reactions, such as cement manufacturing. Carbon dioxide is absorbed and emitted naturally as
part of the carbon cycle, through plant and animal respiration, volcanic eruptions, and ocean-atmosphere
exchange.
• Methane
Both natural and human activities produce methane. For example, natural wetlands, agricultural activities, and
fossil fuel extraction and transport all emit methane.
• Nitrous Oxide
Nitrous oxide is produced mainly through agricultural activities and natural biological processes. Fossil fuel burning
and industrial processes also create nitrous oxide.
• F-Gases
Chlorofluorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride,
together called F-gases, are often used in coolants, foaming agents, fire extinguishers, solvents, pesticides, and
aerosol propellants.
 Air is made up of many gases like nitrogen,

Other Greenhouse Gases

oxygen along with water vapor
molecules. When air is warm, the molecules
have more energy and they move about
creating space for more water vapor
molecules to fill in. This is the reason that
warm air contains more water molecules than
• Ground-Level Ozone cool air.
• Ground-level ozone is created by a chemical reaction between emissions
of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds from automobiles,
power plants, and other industrial and commercial sources in the
presence of sunlight. In addition to trapping heat, ground-level ozone is a
pollutant that can cause respiratory health problems and damage crops
and ecosystems.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor is another greenhouse gas and plays a key role in
climate feedbacks because of its heat-trapping ability. Warmer air holds
more moisture than cooler air. Therefore, as greenhouse gas
concentrations increase and global temperatures rise, the total amount
of water vapor in the atmosphere also increases, further amplifying the
warming effect.5
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/climate-change/steamy-relationships-how-
atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/
• It works like this: As greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and
methane increase, Earth’s temperature rises in response. This
increases evaporation from both water and land areas. Because
warmer air holds more moisture, its concentration of water vapor
increases. Specifically, this happens because water vapor does
not condense and precipitate out of the atmosphere as easily at
higher temperatures. The water vapor then absorbs heat
radiated from Earth and prevents it from escaping out to space.
This further warms the atmosphere, resulting in even more water
vapor in the atmosphere. This is what scientists call a "positive
feedback loop." Scientists estimate this effect more than doubles
the warming that would happen due to increasing carbon dioxide
alone.
This diagram shows the mechanisms behind a positive water vapor feedback loop.
Increases in carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, cause a rise global air temperatures.
Due to increased evaporation and since warmer air holds more water, water vapor levels in the atmosphere rise,
which further increases greenhouse warming. The cycle reinforces itself. The background is a sunset through
altocumulus clouds.
NASA and NOAA Historic NWS Collection
 Greenhouse Gases: Sources
and Sinks
Greenhouse Gas Principal Sources (and Sinks) GWP*

Global anthropogenic
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Fossil fuel use, land use 1 GHG emissions
change
(oceans, terrestrial biosphere)

Methane (CH4) feed-in tariffs Fossil fuel mining/distribution, 21

livestock, rice agriculture,
landfills

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Agriculture and associated 310

land use change

“F-gases” Hydrofluorocarbons Industrial processe 140 -

(HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), 23,900
Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6)

*GWP = Global Warming Potential from Second Assessment

Report, as used for reporting purposes under the UNFCCC Sources: IPCC (2007) AR4 WGI & WGIII

19
Aerosols

• Aerosols in the atmosphere can affect climate. Aerosols are microscopic (solid or liquid)
particles that are so small that instead of quickly falling to the surface like larger particles,
they remain suspended in the air for days to weeks. Human activities, such as burning fossil
fuels and biomass, contribute to emissions of these substances, although some aerosols also
come from natural sources such as volcanoes and marine plankton.
• Unlike greenhouse gases, the climate effects of aerosols vary depending on what they are
made of and where they are emitted. Depending on their color and other factors, aerosols can
either absorb or reflect sunlight. Aerosols that reflect sunlight, such as particles from volcanic
eruptions or sulfur emissions from burning coal, have a cooling effect. Those that absorb
sunlight, such as black carbon (a part of soot), have a warming effect.
• Not only can black carbon directly absorb incoming and reflected sunlight, but it can also
absorb infrared radiation.6 Black carbon can also be deposited on snow and ice, darkening the
surface and thereby increasing the snow's absorption of sunlight and accelerating melt. 7 For
more information, see the 2015 Report to Congress on Black Carbon. While reductions in all
aerosols can lead to more warming, targeted reductions in black carbon emissions can reduce
global warming. Warming and cooling aerosols can also interact with clouds, changing their
ability to form and dissipate, as well as their reflectivity and precipitation rates. Clouds can
contribute both to cooling, by reflecting sunlight, and warming, by trapping outgoing heat.
 F. GHG are partly masked by
aerosol cooling Nitrogen oxides (NOx) act as indirect
greenhouse gases by producing the
tropospheric greenhouse gas 'ozone' via
photochemical reactions in the
atmosphere. The impact of NOx gases
on global warming is not all bad though.

Can biomass burning have a cooling effect?

Of the carbon dioxide that we humans contribute,
roughly two-thirds is from the burning of fossil fuels
and one-third is from the burning of biomass, such
as forests, grasslands and agricultural crops. But
biomass burning also emits particles, many of
which reflect light, causing cooling.Aug 4, 2004
Causes of Climate Change

Since the Industrial

Revolution, human activities
have released large amounts
of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere, which has
changed the earth’s climate.
Natural processes, such as
changes in the sun's energy
and volcanic eruptions, also
affect the earth's climate.
However, they do not explain
the warming that we have
observed over the last
century.1
Human Versus Natural Causes

Human Versus Natural Causes

Scientists have pieced together a record of the earth’s climate by analyzing
a number of indirect measures of climate, such as ice cores, tree rings,
glacier lengths, pollen remains, and ocean sediments, and by studying
changes in the earth’s orbit around the sun.2 This record shows that the
climate varies naturally over a wide range of time scales, but this
variability does not explain the observed warming since the 1950s.
Rather, it is extremely likely (> 95%) that human activities have
been the dominant cause of that warming.3
Human activities have contributed substantially to climate change through:
•Greenhouse Gas Emissions
•Reflectivity or Absorption of the Sun’s Energy
Greenhouse Gases
Concentrations of the key greenhouse gases have all increased since the Industrial Revolution
due to human activities. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide concentrations are now
more abundant in the earth’s atmosphere than any time in the last 800,000 years. 5 These
greenhouse gas emissions have increased the greenhouse effect and
caused the earth’s surface temperature to rise. Burning fossil fuels changes the climate more
than any other human activity.
Carbon dioxide: Human activities currently release over 30 billion tons of carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere every year.6 Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
have increased by more than 40 percent since pre-industrial times, from
approximately 280 parts per million (ppm) in the 18th century7 to 414 ppm in
2020.8
Methane: Human activities increased methane concentrations during most of the
20th century to more than 2.5 times the pre-industrial level, from approximately 722
parts per billion (ppb) in the 18th century9 to 1,867 ppb in 2019.10
Nitrous oxide: Nitrous oxide concentrations have risen approximately 20 percent
since the start of the Industrial Revolution, with a relatively rapid increase toward the
end of the 20th century. Nitrous oxide concentrations have increased from a pre-
industrial level of 270 ppb11 to 332 ppb in 2019.12
For more information on greenhouse gas emissions, see the
Greenhouse Gas Emissions website. To learn more about actions that can reduce these
This graph shows the increase in atmospheric concentrations of three of the key greenhouse gases over the last 2,000 years.
Increases in concentrations of these gases since 1750 are due to human
activities in the industrial era. Source: U.S. EPA, Climate Change Indicators in the United States:
Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases, 2021.
Reflectivity or Absorption of the Sun’s Energy
Activities such as agriculture, road construction, and
deforestation can change the reflectivity of the earth's
surface, leading to local warming or cooling. This effect is
observed in heat islands, which are urban centers that are
warmer than the surrounding, less populated areas. One reason
that these areas are warmer is that buildings, pavement, and
roofs tend to reflect less sunlight than natural surfaces. While
deforestation can increase the earth’s reflectivity globally by
replacing dark trees with lighter surfaces such as crops, the net
effect of all land-use changes appears to be a small cooling. 13
Emissions of small particles, known as aerosols, into the air can
also lead to reflection or absorption of the sun's energy. Many
types of air pollutants undergo chemical reactions in the
atmosphere to create aerosols. Overall, human-generated
aerosols have a net cooling effect on the earth. Learn more about
 Natural Processes
Natural Processes
Natural processes are always influencing the earth’s climate and can explain climate changes
prior to the Industrial Revolution in the 1700s. However, recent climate changes cannot be
explained by natural causes alone.
Changes in the Earth’s Orbit and Rotation
Changes in the earth’s orbit and its axis of rotation have had a big impact on climate in the
past. For example, the amount of summer sunshine on the Northern Hemisphere, which is
affected by changes in the planet’s orbit, appears to be the primary cause of past cycles of ice
ages, in which the earth has experienced long periods of cold temperatures (ice ages), as well
as shorter interglacial periods (periods between ice ages) of relatively warmer temperatures. 14
At the coldest part of the last glacial period (or ice age), the average global temperature was
about 11°F colder than it is today. At the peak of the last interglacial period, however, the
average global temperature was at most 2°F warmer than it is today. 15
Variations in Solar Activity
Changes in the sun’s energy output can affect the intensity of the sunlight that reaches the
earth’s surface. While these changes can influence the earth’s climate, solar variations have
played little role in the climate changes observed in recent decades. 16 Satellites have been
measuring the amount of energy the earth receives from the sun since 1978. These
measurements show no net increase in the sun’s output, even as global surface temperatures
have risen.17
The sun follows a natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs in intensity (bottom chart),
but the effect on the earth is small. Over the same period, the average global temperature
has increased markedly (top chart).
Source: National Academy of Sciences, Climate Change Evidence & Causes, 2020.
Changes in the Earth’s Reflectivity
The amount of sunlight that is absorbed or reflected by the planet depends on the earth’s
surface and atmosphere. Dark objects and surfaces, like the ocean, forests, and soil, tend to
absorb more sunlight. Light-colored objects and surfaces, like snow and clouds, tend to reflect
sunlight. About 70 percent of the sunlight that reaches the earth is absorbed. 18 Natural changes
in the earth’s surface, like the melting of sea ice, have contributed to climate change in the
past, often acting as feedbacks to other processes.
Volcanic Activity
Volcanoes have played a noticeable role in climate, and volcanic eruptions released large
quantities of carbon dioxide in the distant past. Some explosive volcano eruptions can throw
particles (e.g., SO2) into the upper atmosphere, where they can reflect enough sunlight back to
space to cool the surface of the planet for several years.19 These particles are an example of
cooling aerosols.
Volcanic particles from a single eruption do not produce long-term climate change because they
remain in the atmosphere for a much shorter time than greenhouse gases. In addition, human
activities emit more than 100 times as much carbon dioxide as volcanoes each year. 20
Changes in Naturally Occurring Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
Over the last several hundred thousand years, carbon dioxide levels varied in tandem with the
glacial cycles. During warm interglacial periods, carbon dioxide levels were higher. During cool
glacial periods, carbon dioxide levels were lower. 21 The heating or cooling of the earth’s surface
and oceans can cause changes in the natural sources and sinks of these gases, and thus change
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.22 These changing concentrations have acted
as a positive climate feedback, amplifying the temperature changes caused by long-term shifts
Impacts of Climate Change

Impacts of Climate Change

Climate change is happening. Global average temperature has increased about 1.8°F from
1901 to 2016.1 Changes of one or two degrees in the average temperature of the planet can
cause potentially dangerous shifts in climate and weather. These real, observable changes
are what we call climate change impacts​​because they are the visible ways that climate
change is affecting the Earth. For example, many places have experienced
changes in rainfall, resulting in more floods, droughts, or intense rain, as well as more
frequent and severe heat waves.
The planet's oceans and glaciers have also experienced changes—oceans are warming and
becoming more acidic, ice caps are melting, and sea level is rising. As these and other
changes become more pronounced in the coming decades, they will likely present
challenges to our society and our environment.
•Warmer temperatures increase the frequency,
intensity, and duration of heat waves,2 which can
pose health risks, particularly for young children
and the elderly.
•Climate change can also impact human health by
worsening air and water quality,
increasing the spread of certain diseases, and
altering the frequency or intensity of
extreme weather events.3
•Rising sea level threatens coastal communities and
ecosystems.4
•Changes in the patterns and amount of rainfall, as
well as changes in the timing and amount of
stream flow, can affect water supplies and water
quality and the production of hydroelectricity.5
•Changing ecosystems influence geographic ranges
of many plant and animal species and the timing of
their lifecycle events, such as migration and
reproduction.6
•Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, and
floods, can increase losses to property, cause costly
Looking Ahead

• Looking Ahead
• Elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide will persist in
the atmosphere for hundreds or thousands of years, so
the earth will continue to warm in the coming decades.
The warmer it gets, the greater the risk for more severe
changes to the climate and the earth's system.
Although it's difficult to predict the exact impacts of
climate change, what's clear is that the climate we are
accustomed to is no longer a reliable guide for what to
expect in the future

.
Adapting to Climate Change

• Adapting to Climate Change

• Adaptation helps us prepare for some of the likely
effects of climate change by reducing their impacts on
ecosystems and people's well-being. Examples of
adaptation include strengthening water conservation
programs, upgrading stormwater systems, developing
early warning systems for extreme heat events, and
preparing for stronger storms through better emergency
preparation and response strategies.
Climate Change Indicators in the United States
The Short Answer: Permafrost is any ground that remains completely frozen
—32°F (0°C) or colder—for at least two years straight. These permanently
frozen grounds are most common in regions with high mountains and in
Earth's higher latitudes—near the North and South Poles.
Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis
(CIRA)
GHG, adaptation, mitigation,
and …..
 Greenhouse Gases: Sources
and Sinks
Greenhouse Gas Principal Sources (and Sinks) GWP*

Global anthropogenic
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Fossil fuel use, land use 1 GHG emissions
change
(oceans, terrestrial biosphere)

Methane (CH4) feed-in tariffs Fossil fuel mining/distribution, 21

livestock, rice agriculture,
landfills

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Agriculture and associated 310

land use change

“F-gases” Hydrofluorocarbons Industrial processe 140 -

(HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), 23,900
Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6)

*GWP = Global Warming Potential from Second Assessment

Report, as used for reporting purposes under the UNFCCC Sources: IPCC (2007) AR4 WGI & WGIII

42
Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU)
How much CO2 budget is left?
How much budget is left? Our best estimate of the 1.5 C remaining
carbon budget is 440 billion tonnes of CO2 from 2020 onward. If
human activities around the globe continue to produce CO2 at current
rates, we will deplete the remaining carbon budget in a little more
than 10 years.
What does carbon budget mean? The carbon budget is the amount of CO2 that
humanity can emit while still having a chance to contain global warming
within 1.5 degrees centigrade compared with preindustrial levels, as advocated by
the Paris Agreement.Apr 8, 2021
The remaining global CO2 budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C was given
as 400 billion tonnes CO2 in the IPCC report of 2021. For an average country, its
share of this global CO2 budget will run out in 7 years.
CO2 budget 275 billion t and our productionis 36 BT in 2024
he remaining carbon budget for the 50% likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5 °C (2.7
°F) was estimated in IPCC AR6 to be 500 Gt CO2 from the start of 2020. The updated
assessment has reduced that budget to 200 Gt CO2 from the start of 2024.
Dealing with Global Climate Change
(questions to students)
• Responding to climate change requires action on two fronts: firstly "adaptation" to the consequences of
current and future climate change and secondly "mitigation" of climate change by drastically reducing
global greenhouse gas emissions, avoiding future emissions in developing countries and ensure carbon
sinks, like the rainforest are preserved.
• The term adaptation encompasses a broad range of responses that help governments, communities and
individuals cope with the impact of climate change

• To avoid the worst of climate change, CO 2 levels must be stabilized at 550ppm

• 50% higher than current levels
• 426.91 parts per million
Global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide 1990-2024, by month. Monthly mean atmospheric carbon
dioxide (CO₂) concentrations reached a record high of 426.91 parts per million (ppm) in June 2024.

• Two ways to attempt to manage climate change

• Mitigation
• Focuses on limiting greenhouse gas emissions to moderate global
climate change
• Adaptation
• Focuses on learning to live with to the environmental changes and
societal consequences brought about by global climate change
 The Feed-In Tariffs are based on the electricity
generated by a renewable energy system which is

Dealing with Global Climate Change-

used in the property. There is also an additional
bonus for any energy produced which is exported
to the electricity grid. This means you get paid

Mitigation
more for the energy you don’t use than for that
which you do which encourages energy efficiency

• Locate/invent alternative fuels to fossil fuels

• Increase efficiency of cars and trucks
• Sequestering carbon before it is emitted
• Plant and Maintain trees to naturally sequester carbon
• Energy efficiency: introducing standards for consumer appliances and
equipment, such as lighting, air conditioners and motors, and
stronger building codes and certifications.
• Renewable energy: commercializing and scaling technologies like
solar, wind, small hydro, biopower and geothermal energy.
• Policy: introducing feed-in tariffs, reverse auctions and other market-
based mechanisms and financial instruments to speed up
investments in clean energy
Adaptation
Sensors
• In addition to the role that sensors play in monitoring climate change by
helping to capture more accurate data, research indicates that they also
constitute promising technologies for improving energy efficiency.
• Sensors can be used in several environmental applications, such as control of
temperature, heating and lighting.
Water Purification, Water Recycling and Efficient Irrigation Systems
ICTs can contribute to the improvement of water resource management
techniques, monitoring of water resources, capacity building and awareness
rising.
Broadly diffused applications such as mobile phones can serve as tools to
disseminate information on low-cost methods for desalination, using gray water
and harvesting rainwater for every day uses, as well as for capacity building on
new irrigation mechanisms, among others.
More Resilient Crops
• In the face of higher temperatures, more variable crop seasons and decreasing productivity, ICTs have the
potential to enhance food security by strengthening agricultural production systems through information about
:
• pest and disease control
• planting dates
• seed varieties
• irrigation applications
• early warning systems
• improving market access, etc.
Weather Forecasting Technologies
 ICTs play a key role in the implementation of innovative weather forecasting technologies, including
the integration of community monitoring.
 The use of mobile phones and SMS for reporting on locally-relevant indicators, for instance likelihood
of floods, can contribute to greater accuracy and more precise flood warnings to communities.
 Based on this information, authorities could design and put in more appropriate strategies.
 Flood Safeguards
 Climatic changes such as increased and erratic patterns of precipitation
negatively affect the capacity of flood and drainage systems, built
environment, energy and transportation, among others.
 ICT applications such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can facilitate
the monitoring and provision of relevant environmental information to
relevant stakeholders, including decision-making processes for the
adaptation of human habitats.
Innovations around Infectious Diseases
• Extreme weather events and changing climatic patterns associated with
climate change have been linked to the spread of vector-borne such as
malaria and water-borne diseases.
• ICTs such as mobile phones, community radio and the Internet have the
potential to enable information sharing, awareness raising and capacity
building on key health threats, enabling effective prevention and response.
Dealing with Global Climate Change-
Adaptation

• Rising sea levels

and coastal
populations
• Move inland
• Construct
dikes and
levees
• Adapt to shifting
agricultural zones
• NYC sewer line
NDCs: Nationally Determined
Contributions
 The Paris Agreement COP21
The Paris Agreement establishes a clear goal to limit the increase of global
temperature to “well
below” 2°C, and ideally to 1.5 °C, compared to pre-industrial levels, during this
century.
To realize this climate target, a profound transformation of the global energy landscape
is essential. The
world must urgently shift away from the consumption of fossil fuels and towards
cleaner renewable
forms of energy by rapidly replacing conventional fossil fuel generation and uses with
low-carbon
Technologies.
To meet the aims of the Paris Agreement, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions need
to be reduced by a minimum of 3.8% per year from now until 2050, with continued
reductions
thereafter.
Paris Agreement at the 21st Conference of
the Parties (COP 21) and NDCs
• The Paris Agreement and NDCs
• Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the
Paris Agreement and the achievement of these long-term goals. NDCs
embody efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and
adapt to the impacts of climate change. The Paris Agreement (Article
4, paragraph 2) requires each Party to prepare, communicate and
maintain successive nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that it
intends to achieve. Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation measures,
with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions
• keep the increase in global temperature to well below 2°C with
respect to the pre-industrial era, with the further aim of limiting it to
1.5°C; and strengthen the capacity of adaptation to the adverse
effects of climate change and increase resilience.
• From the INDCs (Warsow COP19) to the NDCs (Paris
COP21), national commitments to a global objective
• INDC lost its tag of “proposed” and began to be referred
as the Nationally Determined Contribution NDCs
NDCs: National determined
Contribution
• NDCs are national climate plans highlighting climate
actions, including climate related targets, policies and
measures governments aims to implement in response to
climate change and as a contribution to global climate action.
Central to the NDCs is the concept of national determination.
• NDCs are established independently by the parties
(countries or regional groups of countries) in question. ...
Once states have set their initial NDCs, these are expected to
be updated on a 5-year cycle. Biennial progress reports are to
be published that track progress toward the objectives set out in
states' NDCs.
 NDCs are countries' self-defined mitigation goals. ... While parties are
legally obligated to have an NDC, and to pursue measures with the
aim of achieving it, achievement of the NDC is not a legally binding
or enforceable commitment.
Legally-binding elements: Commitments by all parties to:
• Prepare, communicate and maintain NDC
• Pursue domestic mitigation measures
• Provide information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding
• Communicate successive NDC every 5 years
• Provide information necessary to track progress in implementing NDC
Parties are requested to submit the next round of NDCs (new
NDCs or updated NDCs) by 2020 and every five years
thereafter (e.g. by 2020, 2025, 2030), regardless of their
respective implementation time frames
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-
determined-contributions-ndcs/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs
The Paris Agreement and NDCs
Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the Paris Agreement and the achievement of these
long-term goals. NDCs embody efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of
climate change. The Paris Agreement (Article 4, paragraph 2) requires each Party to prepare, communicate and
maintain successive nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that it intends to achieve. Parties shall pursue
domestic mitigation measures, with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions.
What does this mean?
The Paris Agreement requests each country to outline and communicate their post-2020 climate actions, known as
their NDCs.
Together, these climate actions determine whether the world achieves the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement
and to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as soon as possible and to undertake rapid
reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHGs in the second half of this century. It is understood that the
peaking of emissions will take longer for developing country Parties, and that emission reductions are undertaken on
the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, which are critical
development priorities for many developing countries.
Submissions of NDCs
The Paris Agreement recognizes that the long-term goals specified in its Articles 2 and 4.1 will be achieved through
time and, therefore, builds on a ratcheting up of aggregate and individual ambition over time.
NDCs are submitted every five years to the UNFCCC secretariat. In order to enhance the ambition over time the Paris
Agreement provide that successive NDCs will represent a progression compared to the previous NDC and reflect its
highest possible ambition.
Parties are requested to submit the next round of NDCs (new NDCs or updated NDCs) by 2020 and every
five years thereafter (e.g. by 2020, 2025, 2030), regardless of their respective implementation time
frames
• As a result, each NDC reflects the country’s ambition for
mitigation taking into account its domestic context and
capabilities. When preparing NDCs, some countries
attached conditions to the implementation of some
measures. These are referred to as conditional
contributions, in contrast to unconditional contributions.
 NDC-SDG Connections
https://klimalog.die-gdi.de/ndc-sdg/
• Connecting climate action to the Sustainable Development Goals:
Analyse and compare how climate actions formulated in Nationally
Determined Contributions (NDCs) corresponds to each of the 17
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
 More ambitious NDCs are needed already by
2020
to be able to close the gap: a UN report 2017
G20 nations cause 76% of global greenhouse gas emissions; only half those emissions are covered
by ambitious pledges to cut them, under the Paris Agreement. G20 leaders could get the world on
track for COP26 to deliver on the Paris Agreement commitment, and keep 1.5° alive
The first NDCs were submitted as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) by Parties in 2015 and, with the ratification of
the Paris Agreement, the INDCs officially became NDCs. The NDCs must be submitted in a five-year cycle, with the second generation

due in 2020 .
End of chapter on Climate change
 “Humanity is the major influence on the
global climate change observed over the
past 50 years. Rapid societal responses can
significantly lessen negative outcomes.”

“It is clear from extensive scientific

evidence that the dominant cause of the
rapid change in climate of the past half
century is human-induced increases in
the amount of greenhouse gases…”

“The scientific evidence is clear: global

climate change caused by human
activities is occurring now, and it is a
growing threat to society.”
 Intergovernment
al Panel on
Climate Change
(IPCC)

“Human influence has been

detected in warming of the
atmosphere and the ocean, in
changes in the global water
cycle, in reductions of snow
and ice, in global mean sea
level rise, and in changes in
some climate extremes.”
“It is extremely likely that human influence has been the
dominant cause of the observed warming”
AR6 Climate Change 2021:
The Physical Science Basis
Warming is Unmistakable

ΔT ~ 1.0°C = 1.8°F

Anomaly:
Difference from average

Independent analyses of observations agree: Earth is warming

 Global Warming 5,000 land-station
Warming is Unmistakable
Recent
years
warmest
on
record

ΔT ~ 1.0°C = 1.8°F

Anomaly:
Difference from average

Independent analyses of observations agree: Earth is warming

 Global Warming
Attributing Climate
Change •The June-July-August (JJA) season for 2023 was the
warmest on record globally by a large margin, with
an average temperature of 16.77°C, 0.66°C above
average.

Observations
[IPCC, 2013]
Model input = Natural drivers

Model input = Natural +

anthropogenic drivers

Global climate models cannot reproduce observations

without incorporating anthropogenic CO2 emissions

Additional observational analyses have found the climate

change “fingerprint” of anthropogenic CO2 emissions
 The Evidence is In:
Earth’s Climate is Changing

Worst case scenario

Future change
depends on
trajectory of
CO2 emissions
Best case scenario [IPCC, 2013]

We know:
- The climate is changing
- Climate change is anthropogenic
- Regulating CO2 is the only way to mitigate future changes
 “Humanity is the major influence on the
global climate change observed over the
past 50 years. Rapid societal responses can
significantly lessen negative outcomes.”

“It is clear from extensive scientific

evidence that the dominant cause of the
rapid change in climate of the past half
century is human-induced increases in
the amount of greenhouse gases…”

“The scientific evidence is clear: global

climate change caused by human
activities is occurring now, and it is a
growing threat to society.”
 Intergovernment
al Panel on
Climate Change
(IPCC)

“Human influence has been

detected in warming of the
atmosphere and the ocean, in
changes in the global water
cycle, in reductions of snow
and ice, in global mean sea
level rise, and in changes in
some climate extremes.”
“It is extremely likely that human influence has been the
dominant cause of the observed warming”
AR6 Climate Change 2021:
The Physical Science Basis
Warming is Unmistakable

ΔT ~ 1.0°C = 1.8°F

Anomaly:
Difference from average

Independent analyses of observations agree: Earth is warming

 Global Warming 5,000 land-station
Warming is Unmistakable
Recent
years
warmest
on
record

ΔT ~ 1.0°C = 1.8°F

Anomaly:
Difference from average

Independent analyses of observations agree: Earth is warming

 Global Warming
Attributing Climate
Change •The June-July-August (JJA) season for 2023 was the
warmest on record globally by a large margin, with
an average temperature of 16.77°C, 0.66°C above
average.

Observations
[IPCC, 2013]
Model input = Natural drivers

Model input = Natural +

anthropogenic drivers

Global climate models cannot reproduce observations

without incorporating anthropogenic CO2 emissions

Additional observational analyses have found the climate

change “fingerprint” of anthropogenic CO2 emissions
 The Evidence is In:
Earth’s Climate is Changing

Worst case scenario

Future change
depends on
trajectory of
CO2 emissions
Best case scenario [IPCC, 2013]

We know:
- The climate is changing
- Climate change is anthropogenic
- Regulating CO2 is the only way to mitigate future changes