Chapter Five-risk and Return-1
Chapter Five-risk and Return-1
Chapter Five-risk and Return-1
CHAPTER 5
AF 212 & ST 2107
Risk and Return Fundamentals
• To maximize share price, the financial
manager must learn to assess two key
determinants: risk and return. Each financial
1
Boom 0.50 70 10
• Sensitivity analysis
Where
• Covxy = the covariance of returns on securities X and Y
• RX = Return on Security X
• RY = Return on Security Y
• E(RX) = Expected Return of X
• E(RY) = Expected Return of Y
• Pi = Probability of the occurrence of the state of
Calculations of Covariance
• Three steps
1. Determine the expected returns on
assets
2. Determine the deviation of possible
returns from the expected return on
each asset
3. Determine the sum of the product of
each deviation of returns of two assets
and respective probability
Example
• If equal amount is invested in X and Y,
the expected return on the portfolio is
• E(RP) = 5 X 0.5+ 8 X 0.5 = 6.5%
• The covariance of returns of securities X
and Y is
• Covxy = 0.1(-8-5)(-14-8) + 0.2(10-5)(-4-8)
+ 0.4(8-5)(6-8) +0.2(5-5)(15-
8) + 0.1(-4-5)(20-8)
= 7.8-12.-2.4+0-10.8=-33.0
Cont…
State Pr Returns (%) Expected Deviation from Deviations X
of the (E) (R) Returns (ER) expected returns probability
Econ
omy
X Y E(RX) E(RY) RX- E(RX) RY- E(RY) [RX- E(RX)] x
[RY- E(RY)]P
A 0.1 -8 14
B 0.2 10 -4
C 0.4 8 6
D 0.2 5 15
E 0.1 -4 20
5 8 Covxy
Relationship between returns of
securities X and Y
Positive Covariance
• When X’s and Y’s returns are above or below
their average returns at the same time, this
implies positive relation between returns and
hence the covariance is positive
Negative Covariance
• If X’s returns is above its average while Y’s
return is below its average return and vice
versa, it denotes a negative relationship
between return of X and Y and hence the
Covariance is negative
Zero Covariance
• When returns on X and Y shows no pattern, that
is there is no relationship and hence Covariance
is zero.
Correlation
• Correlation is a measure of linear
relationship between two variables, say
X and Y
• Note that, the covariance of returns of
securities X and Y is a measure of both
variability of returns of securities and
their associations
Formula for correlation
Hints on Correlation
• The value of correlation, called the correlation
coefficient, could be positive, negative or
zero. It ranges between –1.0 and +1.0.
• It depends on the sign of covariance since
standard deviations are always positive
numbers.
• The correlation coefficient is a measure of
the degree of correlation between two series.
• A correlation coefficient of +1.0 implies a
perfectly positive correlation while a
correlation coefficient of –1.0 indicates a
perfectly negative correlation
Calculation of Correlation of returns of
securities X and Y
• We need to first calculate the standard deviation
• The standard deviation of securities X and Y are as follows
• 2X =0.1(-8-5)2 + 0.2(10-5)2 + 0.4(8-5)2 +0.2(5-5)2+0.1(-4-
5)2
= 16.9+3.6+5+0+8.1= 33.6
X =33.6 = 5.80%
• 2Y =0.1(14-8)2 + 0.2(-4-8)2 + 0.4(6-8)2 +0.2(15-
8)2+0.1(20-8)2
• =3.6+28.8+1.6+9.8+14.4= 58.2
Y =58.2 = 7.63%
• The correlation of two securities X and Y is as follows
• Corxy = Covxy= -33.0 = -0.746
• x y 5.80X7.63
Securities X and Y are negatively correlated. The
correlation coefficient of -0.746 indicates a high
negatively relationship. If investor invests his/her wealth
in both instead any one of them, the investor can reduce
Variance of a Two- Asset
Portfolio
• Two- asset portfolio co-vary as well and
therefore their variance is not the
weighted average of the variance of
assets
• The formulae for variance of two-
security portfolio
• 2p =2xw2x + 2yw2y +2wxwyCovarxy
= 2xw2x + 2yw2y +2wxwyxyCorxy
The Variance of Portfolio
• If the weight of investment X and Y
is equal, the variance of Portfolio is
therefore
• From 2p = 2xw2x + 2yw2y
+2wxwyxyCorxy
• Then 2p =33.6(0.5)2 +58.2(0.5)2
+2(0.5)(0.5)(5.8)(7.63)(-0.746)
• = 8.4 +14.55-16.51= 6.45
Minimum Variance Portfolio
Cont…
• e By applying the formulae
• W*= 58.2-(-33) = 0.578
• 58.2+33.6-2(-33)
• Thus weight for Y will be
(1-0.578)=0.422
• The portfolio variance ( with 57.8 per
cent of investment X and 42.2
percent in Y) n2.2 percent in Y)
Diversification
Systematic risk is a risk that influence a large number of
assets or security market as a whole, also called market
risk. Eg inflation
Unsystematic risk is a risk that affects at most a small
number of assets, also called unique or asset – specific
risk.
Total risk = Systematic risk + Unsystematic risk
(Nondiversifiable risk) (Diversifiable risk)
(Market risk) (Business-
specific risk)
RISK DIVERSIFICATION
• When more and more securities are included
in a portfolio, the risk of individual securities
in the portfolio is reduced.
• This risk totally vanishes when the number
of securities is very large.
• But the risk represented by covariance
remains.
• Risk has two parts:
1. Diversifiable (unsystematic)
2. Non-diversifiable (systematic)
The Principal of Diversification
The principal states that spreading an
investment across a number of assets will
eliminate some, but not all, of the risk.
Unsystematic risk is essentially eliminated by
diversification, so a portfolio with many assets
has almost no unsystematic risk. In other words,
systematic risk is not eliminated by
diversification, and this risk is measured by beta.
Total risk of an investment is measured by the
standard deviation of its return.
Systematic Risk
• Systematic risk arises on account of the
economy-wide uncertainties and the
tendency of individual securities to move
together with changes in the market.
• This part of risk cannot be reduced through
diversification.
• It is also known as market risk.
• Investors are exposed to market risk even
when they hold well-diversified portfolios
of securities.
Examples of Systematic Risk
• Economic Decline
• Global Crises (war and even
terrorism)
• natural disasters,
• weather events,
• inflation,
• Interest Rate Fluctuations etc
Unsystematic Risk
• Unsystematic risk arises from the unique
uncertainties of individual securities.
• It is also called unique risk.
• These uncertainties are diversifiable if a
large numbers of securities are combined to
form well-diversified portfolios.
• Uncertainties of individual securities in a
portfolio cancel out each other.
• Unsystematic risk can be totally reduced
through diversification
Examples of Unsystematic Risk
Total Risk
Systematic and unsystematic risk and
number of securities
Systematic Risk and Beta
The systematic principle states that the reward for
bearing risk depends only on the systematic risk of an
investment. In other words, the expected return on a risky
assets depends only on that asset’s systematic risk.
Exxon 0.50
AT&T 0.90
IBM 0.95
Wal-Mart 1.10
Microsoft 1.30
Harley-Davidson 1.65
Beta Estimation
Portfolio Betas
Portfolio beta is the summation attained by
multiplying each asset’s beta by its portfolio
weight. It is calculated like the expected portfolio
return. Looking in previous table, suppose you
invest half of your money in AT&T and an half in
General Motors. What would the beta of the
combination be?
Solution: βp = 0.50 x βAT&T + 0.5 x βGM
= 0.50 x 0.90 +0.50 x 1.15
= 1.025.
So, Portfolio beta = Σ Wi * βi
Where: Wi = proportion of an asset in the portfolio,
βi = beta of the asset.
Beta and Risk Premium
• Note that a risk free by definition has no
systematic risk or unsystematic risk. So,
it has a beta of zero.
• Remember that we can calculate the
expected portfolio return and beta given
the mix of an asset and risk free.
Combining a Risk-free Asset and
a Risky asset
Activity
• An investor is looking to calculate the
beta of company XYZ compared to
the ABC. XYZ has a standard
deviation of returns of 22.12%, and
ABC has a standard deviation of
returns of 22.21%. Based on data
over the past three years, the
correlation between the firm XYZ and
ABC is 0.82.Calculate the beta of XYZ
Beta and Risk Premium
• From the above data we can determine the
Reward-To-Risk Ratio which is the slope of
the straight line of the Portfolio Expected
return against Portfolio Beta. Note that the
slope is just the risk premium on Asset A.
• Slope = (E(RA) – Rf)/ βA = (20% - 8%) / 1.6
=7.5%.
• The result tells us that asset A offers a
reward-to-risk ratio of 7.5%. In other words,
asset A has a risk premium of 7.50 percent
per unit of systematic risk.
Above Data(Activity)
Suppose an asset A has expected return of
20%, beta 1.6, risk free 8%. If 25% of
portfolio is invested in asset A, then the
expected portfolio returns are 11% and 0.4
for beta.
Example
• Roberto Enterprises is concerned that exporting
to South East Asia will impact on its share price
and is seeking a full analysis of the determinants
of share price. At the moment the company has
a risk return rating on its shares of 15.5%,
determined by using a beta factor of 1.25. The
risk free rate is 5.5%.
• Required:
i. What is the risk premium for Roberto
Enterprises?
ii. What risk is measured by beta?
iii. What does a beta of 1.25 inform shareholders
about the risk of Roberto Enterprises? Explain
The Security Market Line (SML
• Is the line that describe the relationship between systematic
risk and expected return in financial markets. In other
words, is a positively sloped straight line displaying the
relationship between expected return and beta. That is the
relation is said to be linear.
• Market Portfolio:
• Suppose we consider a portfolio made up of all the assets
in the market, such portfolio is called a market portfolio.
• Because all the assets in the market must plot on the SML,
so the market portfolio must be made of those assets. To
determine where it plots on SML we need to know beta of
the market portfolio (βM) which must have the systematic
risk of 1 or beta 1. The slope of the SML can be expressed
as:
• SML slope = (E(RM) – Rf)/ βM = (E(RM) – Rf)/ 1: = E(RM) – Rf
• The term E(RM) – Rf is often called the Market risk premium
A Risk-Free Asset and A Risky Asset
RISK-RETURN ANALYSIS FOR A PORTFOLIO OF A RISKY AND A RISK-FREE SECURITIES
120 – 20 17 7.2
100 0 15 6.0
80 20 13 4.8
60 40 11 3.6
40 60 9 2.4
20 80 7 1.2
0 100 5 0.0
20
Expected Return
D
17.5
C
15
B
12.5
10 A
7.5
5
2.5
0
0 1.8 3.6 5.4 7.2 9
Standard Deviation
Activity (CAPM)
• The risk free rate of return is 8% and
the market rate of return is
17%.Betas for four shares P,Q,R and
S are respectively 0.6,1,1.2
and0.2.What are the required rates
of return on these four shares?
Take away Assignment.
• Implication of CAPM to the investors
• Assumptions of CAPM
• Limitations of CAPM
The Arbitrage Pricing Theory
• Arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is a
valuation model Compared to CAPM , it
uses fewer assumptions but is harder to
use. The basis of arbitrage pricing theory
is the idea that the price of a security is
driven by a number of factors. These can
be divided into two groups:
• macro factors macro factors and
• company specific
Cont…
• The APT (Ross, 1976) holds that return of
a stock depends on several economic and
industry factors rather than assuming
only the market factor like CAPM. In the
APT, sensitivity to any of the macro
economic-factors are represented by beta
coefficient . The APT assumes that there
is a linear relationship between return of
the risky assets and macro return of the
risky assets and macro economic
variables.
Cont…
• APT, describes a mechanism used by
investors to identify an asset, investors to
identify an asset, such as, a share of
common stock, which as, a share of
common stock, which is incorrectly
priced. Investors can is incorrectly priced.
Investors can subsequently bring the
price of the subsequently bring the price
of the security back into alignment /
security back into alignment /
configuration with its actual value.
configuration with its actual value
Cont…
• This theory predicts a relationship
between the returns of a portfolio and the
returns of a single through a linear
combination of many independent macro-
economic variables. APT uses the risky
asset's expected return and the risk
premium of a return of a number of
macro-economic factors .
Assumptions of APT
• Unlike CAPM, APT assumes ,
• Investors have homogenous beliefs;
• Investors are risk averse
• Markets are perfect
Calculating Asset’s Return with APT