RISK_O&G_13-12
RISK_O&G_13-12
RISK_O&G_13-12
• Global Trend
• Carbon Capture/Sequestration
Most effective at upgraders.
Regulation
Government:
• Efficiency and market regulations (National Energy
Board and Office of Energy Efficiency of Natural
Resources Canada)
• Environmental Regulations (Environment Canada)
• Property Regulations (Provincial Government and
Federal Government)
Self-regulation:
• Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP)
Total Return Performance of
Canadian Energy Sector
Recent transactions & trends
• The Canadian transactions market has been very active
• The year's most significant trend is the increased interest
from Asian investors and the high-profile deliberations by the
Canadian government about the implications of foreign
investment in Canada’s oil and gas Industry.
Traditional risk exposure
• Commodity price volatility
• Business risk (production and sales uncertainty)
• Macroeconomic influence
• Credit risk (Counterparty failures)
• Operational Risk (Pricing)
• Environmental/legal risk(contract enforcement)
(environmental protection and disaster prevention)
Others
• Pipeline approval
• Access to capital investment
• Global realignment of oil production
• Availability of unconventional hydrocarbon sources
• Underlying commodity supply and demand
fundamentals
• Foreign investment and M&A
Risk management
• Sensitivity analysis
– On cash flows sensitive to:
• Oil and gas prices
• Interest rates
• FX changes
– Further developed with
• Probability calculations for movements in prices,
interest rates and FX
Commodity derivatives
• The use of commodity derivatives can mitigate or remove oil
or gas price uncertainty
• Options, futures, swaps, forward contracts…
Contingent liability derivatives
• On a diversified conventional reserve base with significant
production history, predicting the future production
performance over certain time horizon using type and decline
curves is generally quite accurate
• Companies with this sort of conventional reserve base can
enter into contingent liability derivatives like swaps on a high
percentage of their PDP(proved, developed, and producing)
production with a high degree of confidence that the physical
production to back any hedge liabilities will be there
regardless of availability of future resources like capital and
rigs to drill and complete future wells.
How to manage risk?
What constitutes a sensible risk management program
depends on context:
• One of the largest conventional oil and natural gas producers in Canada
• One of the S&P/TSX 60, the 60 largest companies on the Toronto Stock
Exchange
• In 2011 the company converted from an income trust (Penn West Energy
Trust) back into an independent corporation (Penn West Exploration).
Financial scenario
• Market capitalization: 4.22 Billion CAD
NYSE 13/12/13
Price = 8.61
Management profile
David E. Roberts
President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Roberts brings more than 30 years of operational experience in the
upstream oil and gas business most recently as former Executive Vice
President and Chief Operating Officer of Marathon Oil Corporation
Todd H. Takeyasu
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Todd is a Chartered Accountant with more than 25 years of oil and natural gas
industry and public accounting experience. He has been with Penn West since
1994 in various positions
Mark P. Fitzgerald
Senior Vice President, Development
Mark is a Professional Engineer who joined Penn West in 2008. Prior to his current
role of Senior Vice President, Development, Mark was Senior Vice President of
Production and Senior Vice President of Operations for Penn West.
Risk management at Penn West
Penn West is exposed to a group of risks correlated to the activity it
promotes in the sector of oil and natural gas production.
Commodity price risk, foreign currency risk, credit risk, interest rate
risk, liquidity risk, environmental and climate change.
The company has got the aim to mitigate these risks throughout
business strategies and management controls using determined
financial instruments.
As at December 31, 2012 and 2011, the only asset or liability measured
at fair value on a recurring basis was the risk management asset and
liability, which was valued based on “Level 2 inputs” being quoted prices
in markets that are not active or based on prices that are observable for
the asset or liability.
Hedging at Penn West
“Penn West considers price hedging of oil and natural gas
production to be a useful tool of risk management.
Penn West continues to employ derivative instruments on a
portion of its production volumes spanning several quarters
into the future.
The company also secured hedges to fix the costs of electric
power at its oilfield operations, improving its ability to project
operating costs, netbacks and cash flows.
Penn West is careful and judicious in its hedging activities in
order to preserve exposure to commodity price upside and
avoid unreasonable opportunity costs”
Commodity price risk
• For oil and gas sales, financial derivatives: limit credit risk
by transacting only with institutions within credit facility,
with high credit ratings, obtaining financial security.
Liquidity risk
Liquidity risk is the risk that the Company will be unable to meet its
financial liabilities as they come due. Management utilizes short and
long-term financial and capital forecasting programs to ensure credit
facilities are sufficient relative to forecast debt levels, dividend and
capital program levels are appropriate, and that financial covenants will
be met. Management also regularly reviews capital markets to identify
opportunities to optimize the debt capital structure on a cost effective
basis. In the short term, liquidity is managed through daily cash
management activities, short-term financing strategies and the use of
collars and other financial instruments to increase the predictability of
cash flow from operating activities.
Foreign exchange rate risk
Prices received for crude oil are referenced to US dollars, thus Penn West’s
realized oil prices are impacted by Canadian dollar to US dollar exchange rates. A
portion of the Company’s debt capital is denominated in US dollars, thus the
principal and interest payments in Canadian dollars are also impacted by
exchange rates. When considered appropriate, the Company may use financial
instruments to fix or collar future exchange rates to fix the Canadian dollar
equivalent of crude oil revenues or to fix US denominated long-term debt
principal repayments.
Interest rate risk
A portion of the Company’s debt capital is held in floating-rate bank facilities
which results in exposure to fluctuations in short-term interest rates which
remain at lower levels than longer-term rates. From time to time, Penn West may
increase the certainty of its future interest rates by entering fixed interest rate
debt instruments or by using financial instruments to swap floating interest rates
for fixed rates or to collar interest rates.
As at December 31, 2012, a total of $1.9 billion (2011 – $2.0 billion) of fixed
interest rate debt instruments was outstanding with an average remaining term
of 5.5 years (2011 – 6.5 years) and an average interest rate of 5.8 percent (2011 –
5.9 percent), including the effects of interest rate swaps.
Safety, environmental and regulatory risks
Penn West is committed to minimizing the environmental impacts of our
operations and to involving our stakeholders throughout the exploration,
development, production and abandonment phases. Our environmental
programs encompass stakeholder communication, impact minimization,
resource conservation, and site abandonment and reclamation.
Safety is an integral part of Penn West's activities. Safety programs protect not
only the Company and its employees, but also friends, families, fellow workers,
the public and the environment, from the far-reaching effects of serious
accidents.
Penn West's senior management is committed to continually improving safety
standards, programs, training, awareness – and, most importantly, the safety of
its employees and contractor's employees
Consolidated balance sheets
Consolidated statement of earnings
Consolidated statement of cash flows
Overview
• Sector: oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and condensate
• In striving to be the lowest-cost natural gas producer
• The company plans to continue focusing capital investment in oil
and liquids rich natural gas plays, minimizing investment in dry
natural gas plays and attracting third party capital investments
• In 2013 expectation of liquids production between 50,000 and
60,000 barrels per day
• Strong liquidity position: in 2012 $3.2 billion in cash and cash
equivalent
• Stable dividends
• Joint venture with subsidiaries of Mitsubishi Corporation,
PetroChina Company Limited and Toyota Tsusho Corporation
Management
Doug Suttles
President & Chief Executive Officer
Before joining Encana, Doug held a number of senior leadership posts at
BP, including Chief Operating Officer, BP Exploration & Production, and
President, BP Alaska.
Doug graduated from the University of Texas at Austin in 1983 with a B.S.,
Mechanical Engineering.
Sherri Brillon
Executive Vice-President & Chief Financial Officer
She served as Director of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
Ms. Brillon holds an Economics degree from University of Calgary in 1981.
Bob Grant
Executive Vice-President, Corporate Development, EH&S & Reserves
With over 30 years of experience in the oil and natural gas industry, Bob
joined one of Encana’s predecessor companies in 1985.
Bob graduated from Dalhousie University with a Bachelor of Science
degree in engineering in 1975 and from Nova Scotia Technical College
with a Bachelor in mechanical engineering in 1978.
Operating Areas
Businesses
Based on the Company’s operations and geographic locations as follows:
•Canadian Division includes the exploration for, development of, and
production of natural gas, oil and NGLs and other related activities within
Canada.
•USA Division includes the exploration for, development of, and production
of natural gas, oil and NGLs and other related activities within the U.S.
•Market Optimization is primarily responsible for the sale of the Company’s
proprietary production. These results are included in the Canadian and USA
Divisions. Market optimization activities include third party purchases and
sales of product that provide operational flexibility for transportation
commitments, product type, delivery points and customer diversification.
•Corporate and Other mainly includes unrealized gains or losses recorded
on derivative financial instruments.
Canadian Division
USA Division
Resource play hub model
Utilizes highly integrated production facilities and is
used to develop resources by drilling multiple wells
from central pad sites
Historical prices
TSX NYSE
• The Company provides investment opportunity in the oil sands through its
36.74% interest in the Syncrude Project.
• The Company is the joint venture owner of the Syncrude Joint Venture
(Syncrude), a producer of low sulphur, light, synthetic crude oil (SCO).
• During the year ended December 31, 2011, Canadian Oil Sands estimates
Syncrude’s proved plus probable reserves at 4.8 billion barrels (1.8 billion
barrels net to the Company)
Management Key People
Marcel R. Coutu
•Mr.Marcel has been Chief Executive Officer and President of Canadian Oil Sands
Limited since August 24, 2001
•Chairman of the Board of Syncrude Canada Ltd
•More than 25 years of experience in the energy sector
Ryan M. Kubik
•Mr. Ryan has been Chief Financial Officer of Canadian Oil Sands Limited since April
2007
•He served as Treasurer of Canadian Oil Sands Limited from September 1, 2002 to
April 2007 and served as its Acting Controller from July 2005 to July 2006.
•More than 25 years of exeperience.
Allen R. Hagerman
•Mr. Allen has been Executive Vice President at Canadian Oil Sands Limited since
April 2007
•He served as the Chief Financial Officer of Canadian Oil Sands Limited from June
1, 2003 to April 2007.
•More than 25 years of experience in the financial management of energy
companies .
Syncrude Project At-a-Glance
Reserves and Resources
Based on independent reserves and resources estimates
by GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd. as of December 31,
2012.
Historical Prices
COS.TO on Toronto Stock Exchange
Historical Prices
Historical Prices
Risk Management Philosophy
• COS approach Risk Management through process to identify, categorize
and assess risk.
• COS takes number of actions when risk have been identified and
categorized including avoidance, Mitigation, Risk transfer and Acceptance.
Crude Oil Price Risk
•The financial condition, operating results and future growth of Canadian Oil
Sands are substantially dependent on prevailing and expected prices of oil.
•Prices for oil are subject to large fluctuations in response to changes in the
supply of and demand for oil, market uncertainty and a variety of additional
factors, including access to markets and sufficient transportation capacity, all of
which are beyond the control of Canadian Oil Sands. Prices are influenced by
global and regional supply and demand factors
•Canadian Oil Sands prefers to remain unhedged on crude oil prices; however,
during periods of significant capital spending and financing requirements,
management may hedge prices to reduce cash flow volatility. Canadian Oil Sands
did not have any crude oil price hedges in place during 2012 or 2011; instead, a
strong balance sheet was used to mitigate the risk around crude oil price
movements.
Operational Risk
• Equipment failures
• Operator errors
• Weather-related shutdowns
• Catastrophic events
• In the past, the Corporation has hedged foreign currency exchange rates by
entering into fixed rate currency contracts. The Corporation did not have
any foreign currency hedges in place at December 31, 2011, and as at 2012,
they do not intend to enter into any new currency hedge positions. The
Corporation may, however, hedge foreign currency exchange rates in the
future, depending on the business environment and growth opportunities.
Interest Rate Risk
• Financial Results Impacted by U.S. and Canadian interest rate
changes because its credit facilities and investments are exposed
to its floating interest rate.
• COS did not has significant exposure to Interest rate risk due to
short term nature of its Investment.
Liquidity Risk
• Liquidity risk is the risk that Canadian Oil Sands will not be able to meet its
financial obligations as they come due.
• Canadian Oil Sands actively manages its liquidity through cash, debt and
equity management strategies.
Credit Risk
• Canadian Oil Sands is exposed to credit risk primarily through its
trade accounts receivable balances with customers, with financial
counterparties with whom the Corporation has invested its cash and
from whom it has purchased term deposits, and with its insurance
providers in the event of an outstanding claim.
• Syncrude’s future plans will depend on such agreement and may depend
on the financial strength and views of the other participants at the time
such decisions are made.
Sensitivity Analysis