How Economies

Grow and
Develop
© Dünhaupt, Dullien, Goodwin, Harris, Nelson, Roach, Torras
Chapter outline

1. Development and Economic Growth

2. Country Growth Experiences
3. Understanding Poverty
4. Inequality

Chapter 18 2
Learning goals

 After today’s lecture, you will be able to:

– Explain the difference between “economic growth” and “economic
development.”
– Understand the relevance to economics—and to economic growth in
particular—of the Industrial Revolution.
– Describe general patterns of economic growth over time and across different
regions and countries.
– Discuss the controversy concerning whether global inequality is increasing or
decreasing.
– List various factors that play a role in development.

– Explain how poverty, economic growth, and human development are related.

Chapter 18 3
Development and Economic
Growth
Standard economic growth theory

how is economic growth related to economic

development?

for people’s incomes on average to increase over time,

GDP growth rate > rate of population growth

Chapter 18 5
 Economic growth in the AS/AD Model

AS0 AS1  Economic growth

increases the maximum
productive capacity of the
Inflation rate (π)

economy. It involves both

supply-side and demand-
side expansions, and does
not necessarily involve a
change in the rate of
inflation.

AD1

AD0

Expanded
maximum Output (Y )
capacity
6
 What causes economic output to increase?

 one way that output could increase is if there is an

expansion in the inputs used to produce it:
– natural capital
– manufactured capital
– human capital
– social capital
– financial capital

Chapter 18 7
 Production function
 production function: a mathematical relation between
various inputs and the level of output
 factors of production: the essential inputs for
economic activity, including labor, capital, and natural
resources
 technology is the other important variable that
influences economic output, and productivity depends
crucially on the level of technology
 total factor productivity reflects all contributions to
total production not already reflected in the input
levels

8
The industrial revolution

 a process of social, technological, and economic

change, which began in Britain and Western Europe in
the 18th century
– new methods of production
– new work organization

 greater output per worker

9
The 1950s: Rostow: from underdevelopment to
development
 from “underdevelopment” to development :
I. traditional agrarian society
II. preconditions for take-off
III. takeoff
IV. drive to maturity
V. age of high mass consumption
 if domestic savings were insufficient to enable a
country to reach the “takeoff ” stage, “foreign saving”
should help compensate for the shortfall
10
The 1980s: Development through structural reforms

 the main principles of the Washington Consensus

– fiscal discipline
– market liberalization and privatization
– trade liberalization and openness to foreign investment
 loans from the World Bank, the IMF, and other
institutions were made conditional on structural
reforms
 idea: make developing economies appealing and
„safe“ for foreign investment

11
Table 18.1 Per capita annual real GDP growth in selected Latin American countries, 1980–
2015 (%)

Country Real GDP Growth (in %)

Bolivia 0.9
Brazil 1.2
Chile 3.3
Colombia 2.0
Ecuador 1.1
Mexico 0.8
Peru 1.4
Venezuela –0.3
All Middle Income Countries average 2.7

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Database, 2016.

Chapter 18 12
Country Growth
Experiences
 World economic growth, 1971–2015
 All series are shown using an index of 100 for 1971 levels. During the period 1971–
2015, population nearly doubled, energy use more than doubled, food production
trippled, and gross world product increased by 280 percent.
400
Gross World Product
350
Food Produc-
Index (1971=100

tion
300

250 Energy Use

200
Population
150

100

50

Source: World Bank, World Development 14

Indicators Database, 2016.
Income, growth, and population comparisons, selected countries and country groups

Country or GDP per Capita, 2015 Percent Growth in GDP Percent of World
Category (PPP, constant 2011 per Capita (PPP. Annual Population (2011)
international $) Average. 1991-2015)
High Income 42,261 1.4% 16.2%
Hong Kong 53,380 2.6% 0.1%
United States 52,549 1.5% 4.4%
Japan 35,804 0.7% 1.7%
France 37,306 0.9% 0.9%
South Korea 34,387 3.9% 0.7%
Middle Income 10,104 3.3% 74.6%
Russia 23,895 0.8% 2.0%
Turkey 18,959 2.4% 1.1%
Brazil 14,455 1.4% 2.8%
China 13,400 8.8% 18.7%
India 5,730 4.8% 17.8%
15
Income, growth, and population comparisons, selected countries and country groups

Country or Category GDP per Capita, 2015 Percent Growth in Percent of World
(PPP, constant 2011 GDP per Capita (PPP. Population (2011)
international $) Annual Average.
1991-2015)
Bangladesh 3,137 3.6% 2.2%
Nepal 2,313 2.5% 0.4%
Haiti* 1,658 -0.3% 0.1%
Ethiopia 1,530 3.9% 1.4%
Congo, DR 737 -1.7% 1.1%

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Database, 2016.

*Data for Haiti growth rate is for 1999–2015.

16
What accounts for the striking differences in economic
growth across countries?
 economies such as the U.S., Europe, and Japan
benefitted from many decades of economic growth
(with periods of slowdown or recession)
 GDP increase due to a combination of factors:
– aggregate demand
– labor productivity
– technological innovation
– investment in manufactured capital
– taking advantage of trade opportunities
Chapter 18 17
Successful economic growth from taking advantage of
trade opportunities
 industrialized countries used protectionism
– tariffs and quotas to limit trade – to foster development of
important domestic industries
 developed countries “kicked away” the
(protectionist) ladder
  they now insist that poor countries follow free trade
rules

Chapter 18 18
The virtuous cycle of the Asian tigers

 self-reinforcing patterns of:

– high savings and investment leading to greater productivity
– competitive export industry
– growth of domestic industries

 resulting financial capital invested in machines, tools,

factories, and other equipment that can enhance productivity
 cycle begins again

Chapter 18 19
Are developing countries catching up?

 convergence: the idea that poorer countries or regions are

on a path to “catch up”
– idea: underlying economic forces will cause poorer countries and
regions to “catch up” with richer ones
 evidence suggests that while some developing countries
are on a path to catch up with the richer ones in GDP
terms, others are not
 since 2000 there has been significantly more progress
towards convergence
– this is mainly driven by the rapid growth in China and India, but
applies to other countries also
Chapter 18 20
 Figure 18.3 GDP per capita in 2015 (in current PPP $
per person)
 Income per person is highest in the industrialized countries of North America and
Europe, along with Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Income per person is lowest in
many African and Asian countries.

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

Database, 2016. 21
 Per capita GDP expressed as a percentage of per-
capita GDP in the USA
80%

70%
South Korea

60%

50%

40%

Botswana
30%

China
20%

10% India

0%

Source: Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar and Marcel P. Timmer (2015), "The Next Generation of the
Penn World Table" American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182, available for download at
www.ggdc.net/pwt . Chapter 18 22
Figure 18.4b Per capita GDP expressed as a percentage
of per-capita GDP in the USA

35%

30%
Brazil
25%

20%

15%
Bolivia
10%
Nigeria
5%

0% Congo, DR

Source: Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar and Marcel P. Timmer (2015), "The Next Generation of the
Penn World Table" American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182, available for download at
www.ggdc.net/pwt . Chapter 18 23
 Growth and income relationship with area
proportional to population
15%

13%

China
11%

9%
GDP growth (annual %)
1980-2015 average

7%
India South Korea

5% United Kingdom United States

3%

1%

-5 000 5 000 15 000 25 000 35 000 45 000 55 000

-1% Germany

Ukraine
-3%

-5% South Sudan

GDP per capita 2015

(constant 2010 US$)
Source: World Bank, World Development
Indicators Database, 2016. Chapter 18 24
What accounts for the striking differences in economic
fortunes across countries?
 a great variety of factors plays a role in development
 their significance and the direction of effect (positive
or negative) may vary greatly from country to country
 it is impossible to make all-encompassing statements
about why many developing countries have failed to
achieve sustained growth

Chapter 18 25
Natural resources

 arable land, rich  overexploitation of

mineral and energy natural resources lead
resources, good to environmental
natural port facilities degradation and
and healthy climate economic distortion
make it easier for a  misdirected oil
country to prosper revenues can lead to
corruption and waste
 other sectors are
starved of investment
and resources

Chapter 18 26
 Savings and investment

 investment in  additions to capital do

manufactured capital, not automatically lead
agriculture and to growth
human capital are  capital intensive
essential to growth technologies might be
 education in science inappropriate in
and technologies countries with high
likely to have unemployment
significant effects on  labor intensive
growth products generate
less export revenue

Chapter 18 27
 Allocation of investment

 market allocation of investment might ignore social

priorities
 public goods such as environmental quality and water
supplies require public role
 governments can play a role in planning industrial
investments through industrial policy and to promote
infant industries

Chapter 18 28
 Foreign sources of financial capital

 bilateral development assistance: grants or loans made

by rich country’s governments to poorer countries
 multilateral development assistance: aid or loans from
international organizations (World Bank, IMF)
 private foreign investment
 empirical evidence is mixed:
– aid went to corrupt leaders

– poor countries highly indebted and spend a lot on debt

service
– FDI might crowd out local initiatives
Chapter 18 29
Domestic demand versus export orientation

 level of aggregate demand important for growth

 underdeveloped domestic markets
 countries become dependent on exports
– problematic if world demand is limited
– terms of trade (price of exports relative to imports)

Chapter 18 30
Financial, legal and regulatory institutions

 effective systems of  corruption, internal

property rights and conflict, and other
contract enforcement factors make it
allow entrepreneurs difficult for effective
to benefit from their institutions to take
investments root
 corporate and bank  political instability
regulation leads to economic
inefficiency and
difficulty to attract FDI
 less saving for future
investment
Chapter 18 31
Capitalism

 characterized by private ownership of productive

assets
 laissez-faire capitalism: great reliance on exchange as
a mode of coordination (with relatively little
coordination by public administration)
– UK and U.S.
 administrative capitalism: substantial reliance on
public administration (as well as exchange) as a mode
of coordination
– Germany, Italy, France, Australia, Japan
Chapter 18 32
Socialism

 system that relies more on public ownership

 administrative socialism: state ownership
predominates and activity is coordinated primarily by
public administration
– Soviet Union, North Korea
 market socialism: state ownership predominates but
economic activity is coordinated through markets
– China, Vietnam

Chapter 18 33
Understanding Poverty
How to define poverty

 poverty line: the income threshold below which

members of a population are classified as poor
– minimum standard to escape extreme poverty is $1.90 per
day
– threshold for being considered at risk of poverty is
calculated relative to national incomes
– disadvantage: not useful for comparing across countries
– advantage: allows a country to define poverty according to
its own standard of living
Chapter 18 35
 Growth rates and changes in poverty rates, selected
countries
Period Annual growth Poverty rate at Poverty rate at
rate in per beginning of end of period,
capita GDP, % period, % %
Bangladesh 1983 - 2010 2.6 22.4 11.2
Brazil 1981 - 2013 1.1 9.8 2.8
China 1981 - 2010 8.9 43.2 2.7
Ethiopia 1982 - 2010 1.1 24.3* 9.0
India 1983 - 2011 4.3 16.1 4.3
Indonesia 1984 - 2010 3.5 27.9 2.9
Mexico 1984 - 2012 0.8 9.7 0.7
Nigeria 1985 - 2009 1.7 17.4 21.8
Philippines 1985 - 2012 1.3 9.3 2.7
South Africa 1992 - 2011 1.0 11.0 4.9
Thailand 1981 - 2012 4.3 5.0 0.0

Source: World Bank, World Development Note: The poverty rate is based on a poverty line
Chapter 18 36
Indicators Database, 2013. of $1.90 per day.
The Multidimensional Poverty Index

 based on Amartya Sen’s capability approach:

– capabilities: the opportunities that people have to pursue
important aspects of well-being, such as being healthy and
having access to education
 the Multidimensional Poverty Index considers several
elements that are critical for a decent life:
– physical living standards, education, and health
 in some countries, there are large discrepancies
between MPI poor and income poor
Chapter 18 37
Human development and the
Millennium Development Goals
 human development: an approach to development that
stresses the provision of basic needs such as food,
shelter, and health care
 Millennium Development Goals: a set of goals declared
by the United Nations in 2000 (deadline 2015 for
achievement)
– eradication of extreme poverty

– promotion of education, gender equity and health

– environmental sustainability

– partnership between rich and poor countries

Chapter 18 38
Were the Millennium Development Goals a success?

 between 2000 and 2015,  progress very uneven

many dimensions of  much misery and poverty
human development remained
improved more rapidly  countries did not open up
 by 2015, global poverty markets to the products
rate decreased from 47% of poorer countries
to 14%  inadequate funding
 degree of incompatibility
between goals and
macroeconomic
strategies

Chapter 18 39
The Sustainable Development Goals

 a set of goals set forth by the United Nations in 2015,

building on and expanding the Millennium
Development Goals,
 including goals such as
– battling inequality worldwide
– promoting inclusive growth
– limiting climate change

Chapter 18 40
Inequality
The Kuznets Curve

 inverted-U relationship between economic growth and

inequality
 initial stage of economic growth:
– inequality increases as investment opportunities create a
wealthy class
– influx of rural laborers into cities keeps wages down
 further industrialization:
– democratization, increases in education and safety-net policies

– inequality declines

Chapter 18 42
 The unequal distribution of the world’s income, 2007

Top 20%: 82.8%

of world income

Next 20%: 9.9%

of world income

Third 20%: 4.2%

of world income

Fourth 20%: 2.1%

of world income

Poorest 20%: 1.0%

of world income

Source: I. Ortiz and M. Cummings, “Global Inequality: Beyond the Bottom Billion,” UNICEF Social and Economic
Policy Working Paper, April 2011. Chapter 18 43
Policies that promote GDP growth and a reduction in
the degree of income inequality
1. promote education
2. well-designed labor market policies and institutions
3. immigration and discrimination policies
4. tax policies

Chapter 18 44
Recent studies of inequality

 countries that are more unequal in terms of income

perform more poorly on many well-being indicators
 at very low levels of income per head, increases in
per-capita income are associated with steep increases
in life expectancy
 after a middle-income is reached, increases in income
are associated with much more modest increases in
life expectancy
 at high incomes the relationship flattens out

Chapter 18 45
 The relation between life expectancy and income, with area proportional to population

90
Japan
85 China

80
Life Expectancy 2014 in years

75
United States
70

65
India
60

55
South Africa

50 Nigeria

45

40
0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000

GDP per capita 2014

(constant 2010 US$)

Source: World Bank, World Development

Indicators Database, 2013. Chapter 18 46
Economic development and human development

 benefits of economic growth have been unevenly

distributed
 much of the world’s population has been left out in
terms of living standards and well-being
 policies to achieve GDP growth should be balanced
with promotion of human development goals
 indefinite GDP growth will be in the long term
ecologically unsustainable

Chapter 18 47
What to take home (I)

 for purposes of evaluating how economic growth is

related to economic development, it is often helpful
to focus on the growth rate of GDP per capita, that is,
output per person.
 economic historian W.W. Rostow advanced the thesis
that progress from “underdevelopment” to
development invariably followed five steps
 the main principles of the Washington Consensus
were: fiscal discipline, market liberalization and
privatization, trade liberalization and openness to
foreign investment.
Chapter 18 48
What to take home (II)

 although industrialized countries have generally benefited

from openness to trade, they have also typically used
protectionism—tariffs and quotas to limit trade—to foster
the development of important domestic industries
 poverty can be defined as the percentage of the
population below what is known as the poverty line
 it is impossible to make all-encompassing statements
about why many developing countries have failed to
achieve sustained growth
 one factor that appears to be essential in almost every
case for promoting growth and development is human
capital
Chapter 18 49