ESTIMATION OF

PARAMETERS

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 Point Estimate for Population μ
Point Estimate
• A single value estimate for a population parameter
• Most unbiased point estimate of the population mean μ is the sample
mean X̄ .

Estimate Population with Sample

Parameter… Statistic
Mean: μ x

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 Point Estimate for Population
μ
Example #1:
The sample mean is 45.12 and the population mean is
46.51. Here, the point estimate is the single value 45.12

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 Point Estimate for Population
μ
Example #2:
A teacher wanted to determine the average height of
Grade 9 students in their school. What he did was to go to
one of the eight sections in Grade 9 and then took their
heights. He computed for the mean height of the student and
got 165 cm.

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 Point Estimate for Population
μ
Example #3:
The following are the systolic blood pressures of all
teachers in a private high school.
120 110 120 130 120
130 112 125 120 130
120 120 130 110 120
140 115 125 130 115
145 120 123 140 130
110 140 140 120 120
160 120 135 130 125
130 130 140 120 110
125 150 125 110 125
115 120 130 120 130
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 Point Estimate for Population
μ
Example #3 Cont.:
Assume that the following systolic blood pressures
were randomly selected from the 50 observations.

120 112 120 130 120

140 115 130 110 130
145 140 123 140 115
110 150 140 120 130
130 120 130 120 130

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 Point Estimate for Population
μ
Example #3: Interpretation
The sample mean x̅ = 126.8 is still different from the population mean
µ=125.6
Perhaps, it is better to approximate the population parameter by determining a
range of values within which the population mean is most likely to be roared
instead of using the point estimate. This range of values is called confidence
interval.
In approximating the population mean by determining a range of values within
which it is most likely to be located, confidence levels are used. The confidence
levels of 90%, 95%, and 99% are usually chosen.
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 Level of Confidence
Level of confidence c
• The probability that the interval estimate contains the population
parameter.
c is the area under the
c standard normal curve
between the critical values.

z
-zc z=0 zc
Use the Standard
Normal Table to find the
Critical values corresponding z-scores.
The remaining area in the tails is 1 – c .
 Level of Confidence
• If the level of confidence is 90%, this means that we are 90% confident
that the interval contains the population mean μ.

c = 0.90

z
-zc = -1.645 z=0 zzcc = 1.645
The corresponding z-scores are +1.645.
 Margin of Error
Margin of error

• The greatest possible distance between the point estimate and the value
of the parameter it is estimating for a given level of confidence, c.
• Denoted by E.

σ When n  30, the sample

E  zcσx  zc standard deviation, s, can
n be used for .
• Sometimes called the maximum error of estimate or error tolerance.
 Finding the Confidence
Interval
Example #1:
The mean score of a random sample of 49 Grade 11
students who took the first periodic test is calculated to be 78.
the population variance is known to be 0.16
a. Find the 95th confidence interval for the mean of the
entire Grade 11 students
b. Find the lower and upper confidence interval
 Finding the Confidence
Interval
Example #1: Solution
Step 1: Find the value of or
Step 2: Find , then the margin of error.
Step 3: Substitute the value of x̅ and E in the confidence
interval x̅ -E < μ < x̅ +E
 Finding the Confidence
Interval
Example #1: Interpretation

The researcher is 95% confident that the sample mean x̄ = 78

differs from the population mean µ by no more than 0.112 or
0.11. Also, the researcher is 95% confident that the population
mean µ is between 77.89 and 78.11 when the mean of the sample
is 78.

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Estimating the Difference
Between Two Population
Means

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 Estimating the Difference Between Two
Population Means
Example:

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 Estimating the Difference Between Two
Population Means
Example:
Step 1: Write the given information:
Step 2: Find the value of or
Step 2: Find , then the margin of error.
Step 3: Substitute the value of x̅ and E in the confidence
interval x̅ -E < μ < x̅ +E

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 Confidence Intervals for the Population Mean

A c-confidence interval for the population mean μ


• x  E    x  E where E  zc
n
• The probability that the confidence interval contains μ is c.
 Example # 2: Constructing a Confidence
Interval σ Known
A college admissions director wishes to estimate the mean
age of all students currently enrolled. In a random sample
of 20 students, the mean age is found to be 22.9 years. From
past studies, the standard deviation is known to be 1.5
years, and the population is normally distributed. Construct
a 90% confidence interval of the population mean age.

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 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval σ Known
• First find the critical values
c = 0.90

z
z c z=0 zc
-zc = -1.645 zc = 1.645

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 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval σ Known
• Margin of error:

E  zc 1.5
n  1.645  20  0.6
• Confidence interval:
Left Endpoint: Right Endpoint:
xE xE
 22.9   22.9 
0.6 0.6
 22.3  23.5 20
 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
22.3 < μ < 23.5
Interval σ Known

Point estimate
22.3 22.9 23.5
( • )
xE x xE

With 90% confidence, you can say that the mean age
of all the students is between 22.3 and 23.5 years.

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• Given a c-confidence level and a 
E  zc
margin of error E, the minimum n
sample size n needed to estimate the
population mean  is E  z2c
2  2

E2 2c 2
z
• If  is unknown, you can estimate n
it using s provided you have a z c 2
n z
2c 2
preliminary sample with at least 30 ( )
members. E 2 E

 z c 
2

n 
 E  22
 Example #1: Sample Size

Find the minimum sample size required to estimate an unknown

population mean using the following given data.
Confidence level = 95%
Margin of error = 75
σ = 250

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 Example #1: Sample Size
Solution:

Step 1: Find

Step 2: Solve for n.

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 Example: Sample Size

•You want to estimate the mean number of sentences in a

magazine advertisement. How many magazine advertisements
must be included in the sample if you want to be 95% confident
that the sample mean is within one sentence of the population
mean? Assume the sample standard deviation is about 5.0.

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 Solution: Sample Size
• First find the critical values
0.95

0.025 0.025

z
-zc = -1.96
zc z=0
zc
zc = 1.96

zc= 1.96
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 Solution: Sample Size
zc = 1.96   s = 5.0 E=1

 z c 
2
 1.96  5.0
n   2 1  
 E   96.04
When necessary, round up to obtain a whole number.

You should include at least 97 magazine advertisements

in your sample.
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 The t-Distribution
• When the population standard deviation is unknown, the sample size is
less than 30, and the random variable x is approximately normally
distributed, it follows a t-distribution.
t x - 
s
n
• Critical values of t are denoted by tc.

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T-Distribution

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t-Distribution
 t-Distribution

INTERPRETATION:
The value of the test statistics or computed t value
does not fall in the critical region. Therefore, the
mean score of Grade 8 section Newton in
Mathematics is the same with mean score of all the
students taking up Grade 8 Mathematics.
t-Distribution
t-Distribution
 Example #1: Critical Values of
t
A student researcher wants to determine whether the mean score in
mathematics of the 25 students in Grade 8 Section Newton is
significantly different from the average of the school which is 89.
The mean and the standard deviation of the scores of the students in
Section Newton are 5 and 15, respectively. Assume a 95%
confidence interval.

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 Example: Critical Values of t
Find the critical value tc for a 95% confidence when the sample size is 15.

Solution: d.f. = n – 1 = 15 – 1 = 14
Table 5: t-Distribution

tc = 2.145

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 Solution: Critical Values of t
95% of the area under the t-distribution curve with 14 degrees of freedom
lies between t = +2.145.

c = 0.95

t
-tc = -2.145 tc = 2.145

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 Confidence Intervals for the Population Mean

A c-confidence interval for the population mean μ

• s
x  E    x  E where E  tc
n
• The probability that the confidence interval contains μ is c.

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 In Words In Symbols

1. Identify the sample statistics n, x ,and (x  x)2

x s
x n n 1
s.
2. Identify the degrees of freedom, the
level of confidence c, and the critical
d.f. = n – 1
value tc.

3. Find the margin of error E. E

s
c
t n

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 In Words In Symbols

4. Find the left and right Left endpoint: x  E

endpoints and form the Right endpoint: x  E
confidence interval. Interval:
xExE

E
s
c
t n

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 Example: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
You randomly select 16 coffee shops and measure the temperature of the
coffee sold at each. The sample mean temperature is 162.0ºF with a sample
standard deviation of 10.0ºF. Find the 95% confidence interval for the
mean temperature. Assume the temperatures are approximately normally
distributed.

Solution:
Use the t-distribution (n < 30, σ is unknown,
temperatures are approximately normally distributed.)
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 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
• Margin of error:
Et s  2.131 10  5.3
c
n 16
• Confidence interval:

Left Endpoint: Right Endpoint:

xE xE
 162   162 
5.3156.7
 5.3

167.3 37
 Solution: Constructing a Confidence
Interval
• 156.7 < μ < 167.3
Point estimate
156.7 162.0 167.3
( )
xE x xE
•
With 95% confidence, you can say that the mean
temperature of coffee sold is between 156.7ºF and
167.3ºF.
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 Is n  30? Yes Use the normal distribution with
E  zc
σ
No
n
If  is unknown, use s
Is the population normally, or
approximately normally, instead.
distributed? No
Cannot use the normal
Yes distribution or the t-distribution.
Is  known? Yes Use the normal distribution
No
with E  z
c
Use the t-distribution with σ
n
E  tc
s
n
and n – 1 degrees of freedom. 39
 Point Estimate for Population p
Population Proportion
• The probability of success in a single trial of a binomial experiment.
• Denoted by p
Point Estimate for p
• The proportion of successes in a sample.
• Denoted
by number of successes in
x
 pˆ   samplenumber in
 read asn“p hat”
sample
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 Point Estimate for Population p
Estimate Population with Sample
Parameter… Statistic
Proportion: p pˆ

Point Estimate for q, the proportion of failures

• Denoted by qˆ  1  pˆ
• Read as “q hat”

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 Example: Point Estimate for p
In a survey of 1219 U.S. adults, 354 said that their favorite sport to
watch is football. Find a point estimate for the population proportion of
U.S. adults who say their favorite sport to watch is football. (Adapted
from The Harris Poll)

Solution: n = 1219 and x = 354

x
pˆ   354  0.290402  29.0%
n 1219
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Think of proportion as:

pˆ nx where x is binomial.

So the mean of pˆ is the mean
of x divided by n, and std is std of
x divided by n: Remember : the mean for
the Binomial distribution is
p np
 n p
ˆ
np and variance is npq.
 2 pˆ  npq
2

pq
n Also, when we divide the data points by
n a number the new mean gets divided
pq by
 pˆ 
n that number, and the variance gets divided 43
 Constructing Confidence Intervals for p
In Words In Symbols

1. Identify the sample statistics n and x.

pˆ 
2. Find the point estimate pˆ. n
x
3. Verify that the sampling distribution
npˆ  5, nqˆ 
of pˆ can be approximated by the 5
normal distribution. Use the Standard
4. Find the critical value zc that Normal Table
corresponds to the given level
of confidence c.
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 Constructing Confidence Intervals for p
In Words In Symbols
pˆ
5. Find the margin of error E. E  zc q
ˆ
n
6. Find the left and right endpoints Left endpoint: pˆ 
and form the confidence Right endpoint: E
interval. Interval: pˆ 
pˆ  E  p  E
pˆ
E

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 Example: Confidence Interval for p
•In a survey of 1219 U.S. adults, 354 said that their favorite sport to
watch is football. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion
of adults in the United States who say that their favorite sport to watch is
football.

•Solution: Recall pˆ  0.290402

•qˆ  1  pˆ  1  0.290402  0.709598 58

 Solution: Confidence Interval for p
• Verify the sampling distribution of pˆ can be approximated by the
normal distribution

npˆ  1219  0.290402  354  5

nqˆ  1219  0.709598  865  5
• Margin of error:
pˆ qˆ  (0.290402)  (0.709598)  0.025
E zc n 1219
1.96 59
 Solution: Confidence Interval for p
• Confidence interval:

Left Endpoint: Right Endpoint:

pˆ  E pˆ  E
 0.29   0.29 
0.025 0.025
 0.2650.265 < p < 0.315
 0.315

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 Solution: Confidence Interval for p
• 0.265 < p < 0.315

Point estimate
0.265 0.29 0.315
( • )
pˆ  p pˆ 
E ˆ E
With 95% confidence, you can say that the proportion
of adults who say football is their favorite sport is
between 26.5% and 31.5%.
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 Sample Size
• Given a c-confidence level and a margin of error E, the minimum
sample size n needed to estimate p is

z 
2

n  pˆ qˆ 
•  E an estimate for p
This formula assumes you have
c
andqˆ 
• If not, use pˆ ˆ
.  0.5 and qˆ 
0.5.

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Sample Size:

E  zc pˆ
q
2 ˆ
2 z
E  c n
n
pˆqˆ
2
zc
n 2
pˆqˆ
E
Slide 6- 63
 pˆ 
0.5
and

qˆ  0.5

The product of pq is the largest when p and q are both 0.5.

Max at p=0.5, q=0.5
 y  pq

pq
1y  p(1 p)
y pp 2

Slide 6- 64
 Example: Sample Size
You are running a political campaign and wish to
estimate, with 95% confidence, the proportion of
registered voters who will vote for your candidate. Your
estimate must be accurate within 3% of the true
population. Find the minimum sample size needed if
1. no preliminary estimate is available.
Solution:
Because you do not have a preliminary estimate
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 Solution: Sample Size
• c = 0.95 zc = 1.96 E = 0.03

2
 zc 
2
 1.96 
n  pˆqˆ   (0.5)(0.5)  
E  0.03 
1067.11

Round up to the nearest whole number.

With no preliminary estimate, the minimum sample

size should be at least 1068 voters.
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 Example: Sample Size
You are running a political campaign and wish to estimate, with 95%
confidence, the proportion of registered voters who will vote for
your candidate. Your estimate must be accurate within 3% of the true
population. Find the minimum sample size needed if
2.a preliminary estimate gives
pˆ 
Solution:
0..31

Use the preliminary estimate pˆ  0.31

qˆ  1  pˆ  1  0.31  0.69
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 Solution: Sample Size
• c = 0.95 zc = 1.96 E = 0.03

2
 zc 
2
 1.96 
n  pˆqˆ   (0.31)(0.69)  
E  0.03 
913.02
Round up to the nearest whole number.

With a preliminary estimate of pˆ  0.31, the

minimum sample size should be at least 914 voters.
Need a larger sample size if no preliminary estimate
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 Sample Problems
1. A simple random sample of 36 employees in large
manufacturing company yields an average length of
service of 8 years with a standard deviation of 5 years.
Determine (a) a 95% confidence interval for μ. (b) a 99%
confidence interval for μ.

69
Sample Problems

70
 Sample Problems

3. The standard deviation of a random sample of 36, taken from

a large population is 18.2. How large a sample is required if we
want to be 95% confident that our estimate of μ will not be off
by more than 4?

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 Sample Problems
4. The time required to finish an assembly job is believed to
be normally distributed with a standard deviation of 16
minutes. How large a sample is required if we want to have a
probability of .90 that the sample mean will differ from the true
mean by at most 2.2 minutes?

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 Sample Problems

5. A random sample of size 25, taken from a normal

population, has a mean of 80 and a standard deviation of
5. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean μ of
the population.

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 Sample Problems
6. Ten test runs were conducted in order to estimate the
average time required to assemble a mechanical device. The
results (rounded off to the nearest minute) are
22, 24, 28, 30, 26, 32, 35, 20, 24, 25
Construct a 99% confidence interval for the true mean.

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