Issue #195 The Energy Picture in A Few Graphics

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The Energy Picture Infographic

A 2024 Update
“Our most important task is to get off our
collision course. The first step in this process
is to thoroughly understand the problem and
begin to see the possibilities” within
intelligent responses
E.F. Schumacher in his 1973 book, Small Is Beautiful:
Economics as if People Mattered
Table of Contents
• Big Energy Picture In 22 Graphics – VLOG #1
• Electricity Picture In 14 Graphics – VLOG #2
• Noted intelligent response – Cogeneration or Combined Heat AND Power

• Natural Gas Picture In 22 Graphics – VLOG #3


• Noted intelligent response – Concentrated Solar AND Biogas

• Oil Picture In 14 Graphics – VLOG #4


• Noted intelligent response – Biodiesel AND algae greenhouses

• Coal Picture In 3 Graphics – VLOG #5


• Nuclear Picture In 7 Graphics – VLOG #6
• Hydro Picture In 3 Graphics – VLOG #7
• Renewables Picture In 18 Graphics – VLOG #8
Commodity
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Average
Prices:
since 2016
Coal 103.67% 31.19% -22.16% -18.02% -1.29% 160.61% -48.34% -9.97% 24.46%
Natural Gas 59.35% -20.70% -0.44% -25.54% 15.99% 46.91% 19.97% -43.82% 6.47%
Oil 45.03% 12.47% -24.84% 34.46% -20.54% 55.01% 6.71% -10.73% 12.20%
Dense forms of energy with high energy return on investment (EROI) let nature do the work. For example, oil
is just concentrated solar from eons ago.
Our Finite World; Compare & Contrast
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-worlds-loss-of-forests-since-the-ice-age/
• Every day the world uses 98+ million barrels of oil, 328 BCF of natural gas, 15 million tons of coal, 200,000 kilograms of
uranium, 10.4TWh of hydroelectricity and millions of hectares of wind farms, solar panels, forests and cornfields.
• One cubic mile of oil (CMO) equals the oil that the world consumes every year. Three CMOs equal the energy that the
world consumes every year. (More precisely, one CMO equals global oil consumption in 2000; by 2006, consumption
had increased to 1.06 CMO.)
Cogeneration, etc.
can drive efficiencies
here
https://thinkbeef.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Beef-Sustainibility_the-unt
old-story2.pdf
Well that was dramatic and hugely troublesome! – How much more is being demanded?!
Energy and the covid global lock down

Source: Dr. Chris Matensen


The Big Renewable Energy Myth You Need To Stop Believin
g (youtube.com)
•Description: Host Dan Cloutier will take you through a 7-part series exploring
what is regenerative agriculture and systems that contribute to sound actions for a
financially healthy farm and healthy environment long term .
•Here are key topics covered in part one:

Intelligent •Achieving permaculture and technological energy efficiency advancement


6:28
•On profitable energy efficiency and regenerative agriculture in barns and

Responses Intro
buildings 14:45
•Establishing a regenerative farm
matrix 17:24

https://youtu.be/Jo
•What makes up a Net Zero Home or Commercial
Building 20:25
•Intelligent response options for regenerative agriculture

t0RALHVIw
27:25
•Embodied building energy considerations and the green revolution
33:26
•A profitable integrated regenerative agriculture process scenario
38:31
•Regenerative and sustainable closed loop advantages
42:54
Electricity Picture
• Nationally, 450 landfills and 87 incinerators produced about 24 million megawatt-hours of electricity in 2007,
about 2 days of U.S. electricity use.
• By comparison, wind energy contributes about 3 days of U.S. power a year
• Solar produces 76 minutes’ worth.
US Energy Department data, 2009

o Fossil fuels accounted for about 80% of world primary energy consumption in 2022 and since, even with giant
subsidies since 2009:
o Solar was 0.8% & increased 25%
o Wind was 1.3% & increased 14%
o Nuclear was 1.7% & decreased 4%

2023 stats:
There are 3,393 fossil fuel-fired power plants
across the USA, most of which are natural
gas plants. Those plants generate more than
60 percent of the nation’s electricity. The
plants account for around 25 percent of the
nation’s emissions, according to the EPA.

Exxon Crushes Progressive Dre


ams That "Net Zero" Has Any C
hance By 2050: It Would Mean
Collapse In "Global Standard Of
Living" |
ZeroHedge
** Note the above tends
to be quoting energy cost
only and not include the
many forms of added
fees including
distribution,
transmission,
administrations and
many forms of taxes.
These make up over half
of the bill in many
jurisdictions.
CHP IS A SUSTAINABLE
SOLUTION

EFFICIENCY
• CHP avoids heat and transmission losses, so is far more
efficient than the electric grid.

• Conventional electricity and heat production is only 56%


efficient, while CHP generation can reach 80-90%
system efficiency.

ENVIRONMENTAL
• More efficient energy production reduces air pollution
and greenhouse gas emissions.
• By recovering ‘waste heat,’ CHP systems reduce carbon
emissions by 15-40% vs. the grid. EPA statistics show a
5MW natural gas CHP system can decrease emissions The EPA and Canada Green
from 45 kT/yr to 23 kT/yr.
Building Council (LEED)
promote the use of CHP.
Multi-Flex
Fuel By
Yanmar
ARK Passive Cooling uses about 5% (only 0.27kWh when operating per 1/10th
acre) of the amount of electricity that a swamp cooler uses (4.9kWh).

The ARK Cooling system uses 0.56 L h m² as compared to a pad and fan cooling system
(source Al-Helal 2007) which showed water consumption of 1.08 L h m² of floor area,
making the NVAC system more efficient in terms of water use efficiency. A swamp
cooler can use 10 gallons of water per hour with no water recovery (Source: McGill
University thesis)
Hot air out
Screen wind turbines
mesh

Buoyancy Effect
Cool air from low to Wind Effect
ground

Cools by 6-
The ARK Cooling System 20°C or 3.4-
22.7°F while
hardly using
electricity!!
Natural Gas

Short Heat Is Trouble


US Export LNG Traffic
Real picture for natural gas

Hmmm
IEA’s wishful notion
Canada’s Recent Natural Gas Use & the soon to happen collision with its LNG licenses

Source: Natural Gas Facts | Canadian Gas Association (cga.ca)

• Warmer weather will help draw down on the record NatGas storage in the US. The end of
the withdrawal season was:
• 2019: 1.107 trillion cubic feet (tcf)
• 2020: 1.986 tcf
• 2021: 1.750 tcf
• 2022: 1.386 tcf
• 2023: 1.830 tcf
• 2024: 2.259 tcf, the highest inventories in years for the US.

• 47.1 million tons per annum (mtpa) or 2.827 trillion cubic feet of natural gas for export to
Asia by 2028-2030.

 The export plans of these LNG plants would leave a massive shortage of natural gas for
export to the USA even if production output can be maintained
Hmmm how much industry might Canada
attract with low natural gas prices rather
than exporting at a discount
Note: Canada decides to export about half
it’s gas which will ultimately hurt Canada
badly

tler
r, gen
de
in kin
n pu t
o
e so terms.
rtag
Sho
o te:
N
- Data centers alone now use 4.7+% of electricity used in the world and growing
- It takes an estimated 1,449 kilowatt hours (kWh) of energy to mine a single
bitcoin.
•Canadian Legislated to be Added Carbon Levy
per GJ of Natural Gas:
•2021 - $2.02/GJ
•2026 - $5.57/GJ
•2030 - $8.60/GJ
ARK Concentrated Solar Boiler
Concentrated Solar Boiler
Solar Technology Comparison
Concentrated Solar Plant vs Solar PV farm

CSP PV Comment
Capacity - MW 100 100
Sunlight converstion (watts/square meter) 500 200 PV is 200 and solar thermal is 700
Solar collection Area 200,000 500,000
site collection area ratio 2 0.5 stacked csp vs spaced solar farm
Site Area required (m2) 100,000 1,000,000
Site area required (acres) 25 247 Evacuated Concentrated
investment rate per watt 0.40 1.50
plant cost ($millions) 40 150 Tube Collector Solar Plant
Safe from vacuum loss
X 
Dirt, snow, glass
cleaning, etc X 
Stagnation &
overheating X 
25 years lifetime
X 
Medium temperature
160°C plus X 
Most Efficiency Wins
Our 4’ X 28’ parabolic mirror concentrated solar system components reach
efficiencies of 72% at 1000w/m² solar radiation. This aligns well with the
International Journal of Low Carbon Technologies 2011 findings that the best
solar performer was a “natural convection heat pipe system (concentrated solar)
where the maximum temperature reached up to nearly 100°C / 210°F or boiling
water temperatures”. Such temperatures enable the use of hot water for
electrical generation, space heating and cooling and or industrial process heat for
maximum flexibility of use. We can also well store this heated water to overcome
solar intermittency in 3” insulated tanks where our heat loss will be only
22BTU/ft²/hr.
Intelligent Response - BioGas
• https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-renewable-natural-gas-boom-coming-advocates-say-as-co
mpanies-turn/

• https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/poop-boom-manure-supplies-tighten-fertilizer-prices-soar
In this work, the analysis study of the use of solar thermal energy to heat a
mesophilic digester was carried out. The aim of this work is to compare
between two optimized design which developed by using TRNSYS platform
and chose the best system which can cover almost all need heat energy of
the bio-digester. The result showed that the design 2 is powerful than the
first design [6], i.e, the system 2 cover almost 100 % in all period of the
year, in the contrary the first design occupied 87% for all year.
Solar
heat gain
assists

80°C+ hot water supply


about 2000 hours per
year, stored below
lagoon keeps the lagoon
at 20°C+
•Renewable gas or biogas has become a hot
Biogas commodity in recent months in Canada due to 20-
year offtake agreements being offered, rapidly
Opportunities rising fertilizer prices and GHG pressures. ARK has
an offering that assists Canadian farm operations

https://youtu.be/-V navigate the complexity of the technology and so


forth to a strong revenue stream.
btlnqscyI
Oil
Through the Royal Dutch Shell
years they
become:
Transport fuel cost comparisons
Biodiesel (B100) made with on farm
materials on-site will be materially
less cost than diesel from the pump

Source:
https://afdc.energy.gov/files/u/publication/alternative_fuel_p
rice_report_july_2021.pdf
Carbon intensity is ‘game changer’ | The Western Producer
Algae Greenhouses
The Intelligent
Response of •Small scale biodiesel production plants have been
used by many for a very long time and we provide

Biodiesel one example of a ranch in Alberta. We lay out


sample economics on a single slide. We look in
some detail at feed stock options from tallow,
https://youtu.be/K canola, soybean, rapeseed and algae.

JJ_wnwdTMk
Coal
Coal still
globally going
strong in 2024
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-coal-miners-all-sold-out-coal-2022
Worldwide demand for coal is set to reach a historic high this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its ‘Coal 2023’ report .
The body sees global demand for the fuel rising 1.4% by the end of 2023, surpassing 8.5 billion tons for the first time on record, largely due to soaring coal consumption in “favoured” economies. For
instance, “in India and China, it is expected to grow by 8% and 5%, respectively, largely driven by a growing demand for electricity amid insufficient hydropower production”.
Canada has more than tripled coal exports since claiming to ban coal exports under its climate plan, new records show. Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault had threatened to use criminal sanctions
against provinces that continue running coal-fired power plants (turns out the CO² from burning in China is good but helping Canadians is criminal in these policies): "Canada is driving the international
phase-out of emissions from coal power." READ MORE
At 32 million tonnes, Canada’s exports were nearly the same as the US, accounting for a similar dollar value even after factoring in currency translation. About 83% came from BC and Alberta. The difference
was that nearly half of Canadian exports go to China instead of India. Little wonder, federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault is listed as executive vice-chairman of the Beijing-based China council for
International Cooperation on Environment and Development. The irony is that he sits on a Chinese environment NGGO linked directly to Chinese Premier Xi Jinping even as he pushes emissions caps back
home.
Nuclear
Current US Nuclear Power Numbers
America currently operates 92 nuclear reactors across 54 commercially
operating nuclear-power plants, providing 18.2 percent of the nation’s
electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
That’s down from 99 reactors in 2016. The average nuclear plant employs
between 400 and 700 highly skilled workers, has a payroll of about $40
million, and contributes $470 million to the local economy,
according to the Nuclear Energy Institute trade group.
Source:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/04/case-for-nuclear-strengthens-as-
first-new-nuclear-reactor-in-decades-goes-online/
By 2021, nuclear
energy had fallen to
4.3% of global energy
production. Several
nuclear accidents—
Chernobyl, Three
Mile Island, and
Fukushima—
contributed to
turning sentiment
against nuclear
energy.
o In 2006, the Energy Watch Group of Germany studied world uranium supplies and issued a report concluding that, in its most optimistic scenario,
the peak of world uranium production will be achieved before 2040. If large numbers of new nuclear power plants are constructed to offset the use
of coal as an electricity source, then supplies will peak much sooner. Thomas Seltmann, “Nuclear Power: The Beginning of the End,” Sun & Wind
Energy (Energy Watch Group, November 2009).
o Today, there are some 441 nuclear power reactors operating in 30 countries. These 441 reactors, with combined capacity of over 376 Gigawatts (One
GWe equals one billion watts or one thousand megawatts), require 69,000 tonnes/year of uranium oxide (U3O8).
o In all there are over 300 reactors being built. Each GWe of increased capacity will require about 195 tU per year of extra mine production – three
times this for the first fuel load.
o In 2008, mines supplied 51,600 tonnes of uranium oxide concentrate containing 43,853 tU, which means mining supplied roughly 75% of nuclear
utility power requirements. The remaining supply deficit used to be made up from stockpiled uranium held by nuclear power utilities, but their
stockpiles are pretty much depleted.
o The world only has about 70 years' supply of reactor-grade uranium left at current consumption. New reactors are projected to add an incredible
42% more nuclear power plants within the next decade to 15 years. That means our uranium supply will fall even faster albeit there is hope as we
currently do not have the technology to use most of the energy embodied in uranium or to use thorium.
o “If all the world’s electricity was nuclear-generated, the supply of accessible uranium would be exhausted in nine years.” (source Dr. Helen Caldicott ,
https://www.helencaldicott.com/)
We have been bullish on uranium since 2009
The world might try to go increasingly nuclear – but every cubic mile of oil equivalent (CMO
– energy used globally annually) of nuclear energy will require 500 new surface uranium
mines; 1,000 new underground uranium mines; and 2,280 nuclear reactor operations.

Source: (5) SRSrocco


Report on X: "This is the idea put fo
rth by the Uranium Investing Indust
ry. However, the U.S. holds 140 milli
on tons of Uranium in total inventor
ies, enough to run its Nuclear Powe
r Plants for 3.5 years. As you can see
, Inventories are near the Upper En
d. https://t.co/64r1vfUQCT" / X (twi
tter.com)
Hydro
Tapped?
Producing one CMO of energy a year from hydro power will require the construction of 153 of China’s Three Gorges Dams –
or one every four months for the next 50 years. But this number of “undammed” rivers do not exist.

Only a third of world’s great rivers remain free flowing, analysis finds
The Guardian

Billions of people rely on rivers for water, food and irrigation, but from the Danube to the Yangtze most large rivers are
fragmented and degraded. Untouched rivers are largely confined to remote places such as the Arctic and Amazonia. The
assessment, the first to tackle the subject on a worldwide level, examined 12m kilometres of rivers and found that just 90 of
the 246 rivers more than 1,000km (621 miles) long flowed without interruption. Click here to continue reading

European rivers are littered with barricades, but a movement grows to remove them National Geographic
In a four-year study spanning 36 European countries, scientists surveyed almost 1,700 miles of river by foot—and found at
least 1.2 million obstacles preventing European rivers from flowing freely. That’s more than one barrier for every mile of river
(or 0.74 barriers per kilometer).
Hydro-electric output dropped 14% in
2021 due to lack of moisture
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/renewables-not-so-reliable-us-hydropower-plunges-14

2023 headlines:
Drought reveals cracks in Canada-U.S. Columbia River Treaty as B.C. lake dries up
The resident of Nakusp on the shores of the reservoir in British Columbia’s southern Interior says she’s seen thousands
of dead fish on the shore, and the receding waterline means boat access has been cut to waterfront properties.
Instead of lapping waters, some homes now face an expanse of sucking quicksand. Drought is part of the reason. But
so too is the Columbia River Treaty with the United States that obligates B.C. to direct water from the reservoir across
the border at American behest. Click here to continue reading
Money, power and an ecosystem are all at stake in Canada-U.S. negotiations over this river
Walk along the banks of the Columbia River in B.C. and you might be forgiven for thinking it’s like any of the province’s
other big waterways. You might spot a sturgeon, or glimpse one of the more than 60 dams in the Columbia’s
watershed. But the Columbia is not like other rivers. For one, it crosses the U.S. border to empty into the Pacific in
Oregon. The Columbia River basin is also a vital source of electricity, providing about 40 per cent of all U.S.
hydroelectric power, while B.C. draws almost half of its total electrical generation from the region.
Click here to continue reading
Hydrogen
Water for a Hydrogen Economy: an Alberta case study
How much water is required to produce hydrogen? How much water and hydrogen would be required to
replace 20% of the natural gas produced in Alberta? What is the cost of producing hydrogen? A report
was recently published by WaterSMART Solutions Ltd. that responds to these questions. The report
highlights the importance of water in the development of the hydrogen economy, and particularly begins
to consider the tradeoffs that will likely be required with existing water consuming sectors in the
province.

https://watersmartsolutions.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/watersmart_H2infographic_FINAL_v2.pdf
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Fuel-Cells/Is-Green-Hydrogen-Being-Overhyped.html
Renewables
If we are about protecting the environment:

Data from NOAA Fisheries shows humpback whale strandings from Maine to Florida have
surged post-2016.

We must really protect it


“All of life, including human life in all of its manifestations, runs principally on contemporary
sunlight that enters the top of our atmosphere at approximately 1.4 kilowatts per square
meter (5.04 MJ per square meter per hour). Roughly half that amount reaches the Earth’s
surface. This sunlight does the enormous amount of work that is necessary for all life. The
principal work that this sunlight does on the Earth’s surface is to evaporate water from that
surface (evaporation) or from plant tissues (transpiration) which in turn generates elevated
water that falls back on the Earth’s surface as rain, especially at higher elevations. The rain in
turn generates rivers, lakes, and estuaries and provides water that nurtures plants, animals,
and civilizations. Differential heating of the Earth’s surface generates winds that cycle the
evaporated water around the world, and sunlight of course maintains habitable temperatures
and is the basis for photosynthesis in both natural and human-dominated ecosystems. These
basic resources have barely changed since the evolution of humans (except for the impacts of
the ice ages) so that preindustrial humans were essentially dependent upon a constant
although limited resource base. Over time humans increased their ability to exploit larger
parts of that natural solar energy flow through technology, initially with spear points, knives,
and axes that could concentrate human muscular energy, and then with agriculture and
dams, and now with fossil fuels. The development of agriculture allowed the redirection of
photosynthetic energy captured on the land from the many diverse species in a natural
ecosystem to the few species of plants (called cultivars) that humans can and wish to eat, or
to the grazing animals that humans controlled. Curiously the massive increase in food
production per unit of land brought on by agriculture did not, over the long run, increase
average human nutrition but mostly just increased the numbers of people.”
Which states have coughed up how many
billions in renewables subsidies?

Data courtesy of US Department of Energy


What’s It Gonna Take?
• Producing one CMO of electricity from wind will require three million two-megawatt
wind turbines. These turbines would occupy 580,000 acres of combined space.
• “On a percentage basis, renewables take the gold for growth recently with an
impressive rate of 13% per year since 2010. But from an absolute perspective the
news is more sobering: systems like wind, solar and biomass are not taking market
share away fast enough to make a difference to disconcerting metrics like carbon
intensity. Because coal and natural gas are also growing at a good clip, on massively
higher volumes, the share of renewables in the world’s energy diet (currently 1.4%)
is increasing by 0.1% per year. That means that unless something changes, under
current conditions it’s going to take 200-1,000 years to put the fossil fuel industry to
bed! Arc Financial July 2, 2013
Biggest copper mines produced 20% l
ess copper in 2023
https://aheadoftheherd.com/biggest-
copper-mines-produced-20-less-
copper-in-2023-richard-mills/
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/visualizing-copper-demand-renewables-powered-future
Some basic energy costs:
 One metric ton of cement = 5.1 GJ
 One metric ton of glass = 5.3 GJ
 One metric ton of steel = 21.3 GJ
 One metric ton of aluminum = 64.9 GJ
 One MT of potassium fertilizer = 13.8 GJ
 One MT of phosphorus fertilizer = 17.5 GJ
 One MT of nitrogen fertilizer = 78.2 GJ
Source: R. L. Jaffe and W. Taylor Energy info card, Physics of energy 8.21,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
There is no green revolution without natural
gas derived nitrogen fertilizer
When energy the master
currency price inflates it inflates
the prices of everything

This was as of 2013… policies and energy realities


have made this an ugly painful picture since then.
Who knew and
when?!
Permaculture Design For Our Future

That Or This
1. Gain of rooftop acreage with little transport required
2. Role of small business in decentralized production
3. Virtually free greenhouse cooling
4. Virtually free passive solar greenhouse heating
5. Composting for heating, nutrient reuse and biogas
6. Aquaponics to solve overfishing and reduce produce
fertilizer costs
7. Concentrated solar
8. Cogen to quadgeneration for energy efficiency
9. Algae greenhouse for new fast replenishment fuels
10. Only a fragment of what permaculture has to offer
Leveraging Energy •• The What’s and Why’s of Passive Solar Heating

Efficiency for & Cooling – Part 3A 0:00


•• Energy Efficiency Technology Layer Options –

Profit and Part 3B 23:56


•• Concentrated Solar Heating Boiler & Chilling –
Environmental Part 3C 27:52
•• ARK No Electricity Cooling – Part 3D 29:49
Goals •• Hydrogen to Diesel Engine Additive for 10-25%

https://youtu.be/hJ Efficiency Gain – Part 3E 37:36


•• How and Why Cogeneration Boilers Work – Part
NFU7GkxXQ 3F 39:07

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