LECTURE 6

Discrete Distributions
 Learning Objectives

In this part of the lecture, you learn:

 The properties of a probability distribution
 To calculate the expected value and variance of a
probability distribution
 To calculate probabilities from certain discrete
distributions
 Introduction to Probability
Distributions
 Random Variable represents a possible numerical value from an uncertain
event.
 Discrete random variables produce outcomes from a counting process (e.g.
number of classes you are taking).
 Continuous random variables produce outcomes from a measurement (e.g. your
annual salary, or your weight).
 Introduction to Probability
Distributions

Random
Variables

Discrete Continuous
Random Variable Random Variable
 Discrete Random Variables
 Can only assume a countable number of values

 Roll a die twice

Let X be the number of times 4 comes up
(then X could be 0, 1, or 2 times)

 Toss a coin 5 times.

Let X be the number of heads
(then X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5)
 Probability Distribution For A
Discrete Random Variable
 A probability distribution for a discrete random
variable is a mutually exclusive listing of all possible
numerical outcomes for that variable and a probability
of occurrence associated with each outcome.
 Discrete Probability Distribution

Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Let X = # heads.

4 possible outcomes
Probability Distribution
T T X Value Probability
0 1/4 = 0.25
T H 1 2/4 = 0.50
2 1/4 = 0.25
H T
Probability

0.50

H H 0.25

0 1 2 X
 Probability Distribution Function
 The Probability Distribution Function (PDF)
shows the probability for each value:
P(x)  0 for any value of x

 The individual probabilities sum to 1;

 P(x)  1
x

(The notation indicates summation over all

possible x values)
 Cumulative Probability Function

 The Cumulative Probability Function (CDF), denoted

F(x0), shows the probability that X is less than or equal
to x0
F(x 0 )  P(X  x 0 )
x P(x)
 In other words, 0 .25
F(x 0 )   P(x)
xx0
1
2
.50
.25

 Example: F(1) = P(X≤1)=P(0)+P(1) = 0.75

 PDF and CDF

0.25 1.00
0.90
0.20 0.80
0.70
0.15 0.60
Probability

Probability
0.50
0.10 0.40
0.30
0.05 0.20
0.10
0.00 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Value of X Value of X

PDF = P(X = x) CDF = P(X ≤ x)

 Expected Value
 Expected Value (or mean) of a discrete
distribution (Weighted Average)
μ  E(x)   xP(x)
x

x P(x)
 Example: Toss 2 coins, 0 .25

x = # of heads, 1 .50

compute expected value of x: 2 .25

E(x) = (0 x .25) + (1 x .50) + (2 x .25)

= 1.0
 Variance and Standard
Deviation
 Variance of a discrete random variable X

σ  E(x  μ)   (x  μ) P(x)
2 2 2

 Standard Deviation of a discrete random

variable X

σ  σ2  x
(x  μ) 2
P(x)
 Standard Deviation Example

 Example: Toss 2 coins, X = # heads, compute

standard deviation (recall E(x) = 1)

σ x
(x  μ) 2
P(x)

σ  (0  1)2 (.25)  (1  1)2 (.50)  (2  1)2 (.25)  .50  .707

Possible number of heads

= 0, 1, or 2
Transformation of Random Variables
 Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions

Discrete Continuous
Probability Distributions Probability Distributions

Uniform

Bernoulli

Binomial

Hypergeometric

Geometric

Poisson
 Uniform Distribution
 The uniform distribution describes a random
variable with a finite number of integer values
from a to b.
 Each value of the random variable is equally
likely to occur.
PDF CDF

n = b - a +1
Uniform Distribution
 Bernoulli Distribution
 A random experiment with only 2 outcomes
is a Bernoulli experiment.
 One outcome is labeled a “success” (denoted
X = 1) and the other a “failure” (denoted X = 0).
  is the P(success), 1 –  is the P(failure).
 “Success” is usually defined as the less likely
outcome so that  < 0.5 for convenience.
 Possible Bernoulli Settings

 A manufacturing plant labels items as

either defective or acceptable
 A firm bidding for contracts will either get a
contract or not
 A marketing research firm receives survey
responses of “yes I will buy” or “no I will
not”
 New job applicants either accept the offer
or reject it
 Bernoulli Distribution
 We have:
 P(0) + P(1) = (1 – ) +  = 1
 0 ≤  ≤ 1.
 The expected value (mean):
 E(X) = 
 The variance:
 E(X) =  and V(X) = (1 - )
 Binomial Probability Distribution

 Repeat Bernoulli experiment n times and

want to know the probability of X
successes.
 The number of combinations of selecting
X objects out of n objects is

n!
n Cx 
X!(n  X)!
 Binomial Distribution Formula

n! X n X
P(X)   (1-)
X ! (n  X)!
P(X) = probability of X successes in n trials,
with probability of success  on each trial
Example: Flip a coin four
times, let x = # heads:
X = number of ‘successes’ in sample,
n=4
(X = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
 = 0.5
n = sample size (number of trials
or observations) 1 -  = (1 - 0.5) = 0.5
 = probability of “success” X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
 Example:
Calculating a Binomial Probability
What is the probability of one success in five
observations if the probability of success is 0.1?
X = 1, n = 5, and  = 0.1

n!
P(X  1)   X (1   ) n  X
X!(n  X)!
5!
 (0.1)1 (1  0.1)51
1!(5  1)!
 (5)(0.1)(0.9) 4
 0.32805
 Binomial Distribution
Characteristics

 Mean
μ  E(x)  n
 Variance and Standard Deviation

σ  n (1 -  )
2

σ  n (1 -  )
 Binomial Characteristics
Examples
μ  n  (5)(0.1)  0.5
Mean P(X) n = 5  = 0.1
.6
.4
σ  n (1 -  )  (5)(0.1)(1  0.1) .2
0 X
 0.6708 0 1 2 3 4 5

μ  n  (5)(0.5)  2.5 P(X) n = 5  = 0.5

.6
.4
σ  n (1 -  )  (5)(0.5)(1  0.5) .2
 1.118 0 X
0 1 2 3 4 5
 Using Excel For The
Binomial Distribution (n = 4,  = 0.1)
 Using Minitab For The Binomial
Distribution (n = 4,  = 0.1)
2

5
4

1
 Exercise
 A multiple choice exam has 50 questions. Each
question has 4 choices but only one is the correct
answer. A student randomly selects a choice for
each question. Assume that a student passes the
exam if she has 30 or more correct answers.
 What is the probability that the student passes the
exam?
 The Hypergeometric Distribution

 The binomial distribution is applicable when

selecting from a finite population with
replacement or from an infinite population.

 The hypergeometric distribution is applicable

when selecting from a finite population without
replacement.
 The Hypergeometric Distribution

 “n” trials in a sample taken from a finite

population of size N
 Sample taken without replacement
 Outcomes of trials are dependent
 Concerned with finding the probability of “X=x i”
items of interest in the sample where there are
“s” items of interest in the population
 Hypergeometric Distribution
Formula

Where
N = population size
s = number of items of interest in the population
N – s = number of events not of interest in the population
n = sample size
x = number of items of interest in the sample
n – x = number of events not of interest in the sample
Properties of a Hypergeometric
Distribution
 Using the
Hypergeometric Distribution
■ Example: 3 different computers are selected from 10 in
the department. 4 of the 10 computers have illegal
software loaded. What is the probability that 2 of the 3
selected computers have illegal software loaded?
N = 10 n=3
s=4 x=2

( 4 C2 )(6 C1 )
P(X  2 | 3,10,4)   0.3
(10 C3 )

The probability that 2 of the 3 selected computers have

illegal software loaded is 0.30, or 30%.
 Using Excel for the
Hypergeometric Distribution (n = 8, N = 30, s = 10)
 Using Minitab For The Hypergeometric
Distribution (n = 8, N = 30, s = 10)
2

1
 Geometric Distribution

 The geometric distribution describes the

number of Bernoulli trials until the first success.
 X is the number of trials until the first success.
 X ranges from {1, 2, . . .}
 Must have at least one trial to obtain the first
success, but the number of trials is not fixed.
  is the constant probability of a success on
each trial.
Geometric Distribution
 The Poisson Distribution

 Use Poisson Distribution when:

 You wish to count the number of times an event
occurs in a given area of opportunity (time, space,
volume…)
 The probability that an event occurs in one area of
opportunity is the same for all areas of opportunity
 The number of events that occur in one area of
opportunity is independent of the number of events
that occur in the other areas of opportunity
 The average number of events per unit is  (lambda)
 Examples of Poisson Distribution

 The number of phone calls received by a call

center per hour.
 The number of taxis passing a particular street
corner per day.
 The number of computer crashes in a day.
 The number of mosquito bites on a person.
 Poisson Distribution Formula


e  x
P( X  x |  ) 
x!
where:
x = number of events in an area of opportunity
 = expected number of events (average number of events per unit)
e = base of the natural logarithm system (2.71828...)
 Poisson Distribution Example

Example: An average number of houses sold per

day by a real estate company is 2. What is the
probability that 3 houses will be sold tomorrow?
 x 2 3
e λ e (2)
P(X  3 | 2)  
x! 3!
2 3
(2.71828 )(2)
  0.18
3!
 Poisson Distribution
Characteristics

 Mean
μλ
 Variance and Standard Deviation

σ2  λ
σ λ
 Using Excel For The
Poisson Distribution (λ= 3)
 Using Minitab For The Poisson
2
Distribution (λ = 3)

3
5

1
 Graph of Poisson Probabilities

Graphically:
 = 0.50
=
X 0.50
0 0.6065
1 0.3033
2 0.0758
3 0.0126
4 0.0016
5 0.0002
6 0.0000
P(X = 2 | =0.50) = 0.0758
7 0.0000
 Poisson Distribution Shape
 The shape of the Poisson Distribution
depends on the parameter  :
 = 0.50  = 3.00
 Summary

 Addressed the probability of a discrete random

variable
 Discussed various discrete distributions
 Optional: Use the Poisson
approximation to the binomial
 The Poisson distribution may be used to
approximate a binomial by setting  = n.
 This approximation is helpful when n is large.
 A common rule of thumb says the
approximation is adequate if n  20 and   .05.
 Optional: Use the Poisson
approximation to the binomial
 Example:
 We set Poisson mean equal to binomial mean
 Optional: Use the binomial
approximation to the hypergeometric

 Both the binomial and hypergeometric involve

sample size of n and the number of successes X.
 The binomial sample is with replacement while the
hypergeometric sample is without replacement.
 Rule of Thumb: If n/N < 0.05, we can use the
binomial approximation to the hypergeometric,
using sample size n and  = s/N.
 Optional: Transformation rules

If we consider the sum of two independent random variables

X and Y, given as X + Y, then:
 Optional: Transformation rules

When X and Y are dependent, the covariance of them,

denoted by Cov(X,Y) or σxy, describes how the variables
vary in relation to each other.

Cov(X,Y) > 0, indicates that the two variables move in the

same direction, while Cov(X,Y) < 0 indicates that the two
variables move in opposite direction.
 Homeworks
 Ebook: Chaper 6
 6.66
 6.70
 6.81
 6.103
 6.106