WEEK 8

TOPIC 2: TROPICAL CYCLONES

LEARNING OUTCOMES: At the end of the session, the students should
be able to:
1.Determine the classification of tropical cyclones including its origin,
tracks, movement, development and the statistics.
-Classification of Tropical Cyclones (TC)
-Origin, Tracks, Movement and Development of TC
-TC Statistics
 CLASSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HOW
THEY FORM

It's important to note that tropical cyclones are classified by their

maximum sustained wind speed (an average wind over a length of
time ranging from 1 to 10 minutes, depending on the region of the
globe). They are not classified by maximum wind gusts (short
bursts of wind lasting a few seconds).
 Although I imagine most everyone is familiar with the term "hurricane", before
we study the nuts and bolts of these storms, we've got to cover some terminology that
helps scientists (and the public) classify tropical cyclones. After all, not all tropical
cyclones are hurricanes! For starters, formally, a tropical cyclone is the generic name
given to low-pressure systems that form over warm tropical or subtropical seas.
As I mentioned previously, tropical cyclones are meteorologically different than the mid-
latitude cyclones (also called "extratropical cyclones") that you learned about earlier. For
starters, tropical cyclones have a "warm core," meaning that temperatures throughout
most of the troposphere are higher at the center of a tropical cyclone compared to its
surroundings. Mid-latitude cyclones, on the other hand, are "cold core." Another big
difference is that mid-latitude cyclones rely on the presence of large temperature gradients
to strengthen (mid-latitude cyclones are associated with fronts). Tropical cyclones,
conversely, usually form in environments with small temperature gradients (in other
words, environments without fronts).
Instead of relying on large temperature gradients, organized thunderstorms around the
center of a tropical cyclone are key to its livelihood (for reasons we'll investigate later
in the lesson). Mid-latitude cyclones, on the other hand, often have thunderstorms well
displaced from their centers (if they have any thunderstorms associated with them at
all). This difference leads well-developed tropical cyclones and mid-latitude cyclones
to appear very differently on satellite imagery. For example, check out this color-
enhanced water vapor loop from July 9, 2018. The loop shows two cyclones marked by
distinct counterclockwise swirls. The cyclone closer to the U.S. coast a tropical cyclone
(Tropical Storm Chris), which has lots of tall, thunderstorm clouds near its center. The
cyclone farther northeast is a mid-latitude cyclone, which lacks thunderstorms near its
center. The side-by-side visible satellite images below also highlight the visual
contrasts between tropical and mid-latitude cyclones. On the left, a large mid-latitude
cyclone centered near Lake Michigan demonstrated a familiar comma shape on May
11, 2003, thanks to the conveyor-belts and fronts that you learned about previously. On
the right, however, Hurricane Rita lacks the comma shape of a mid-latitude cyclone,
and has thick, tall thunderstorm clouds surrounding its center.
(Left) A large, sprawling mid-latitude cyclone centered near Lake Michigan demonstrated a
familiar comma shape on this visible satellite image from May 11, 2003. (Right) Hurricane Rita
(approaching Category 5 status) at 1610Z on September 21, 2005, lacked the well-defined comma
shape of a mid-latitude cyclone. The visual differences of these two storms provide a clue that
mid-latitude and tropical cyclones operate a bit differently.
 The visual differences between mid-latitude and tropical
cyclones provide a clue that they operate a bit differently, and
we'll see how as the lesson unfolds. But, first, let's break down
the types of tropical cyclones to see how meteorologists classify
and keep track of them. For starters, forecasters often have their
eyes on clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the
tropics (often called "tropical disturbances"). Tropical
disturbances do not have closed circulations and are not formally
tropical cyclones; however, by convention in the U.S., tropical
disturbances that have the potential to develop into tropical
cyclones are dubbed "invests." But, if a tropical disturbance with
organized thunderstorms develops a closed circulation around its
surface center of low pressure (counterclockwise in the Northern
Hemisphere; clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere), a tropical
cyclone is born! Meteorologists then use the following labels to
classify the cyclone:
• Tropical Depression: a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained wind speeds less
than
34 knots (39 miles per hour). "Sustained" is a key word there because definitions of
what a "sustained" wind is vary across the globe (it could mean anywhere from a 1
-minute average wind speed to a 10-minute average wind speed). So, classifications of
tropical cyclones can vary across the globe based on different definitions of "sustained.“
Also note that to be classified as a tropical depression, a tropical disturbance must
develop a closed surface circulation, organized thunderstorms, and wind speeds less than
34 knots (39 miles per hour).
• Tropical Storm: a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained wind speeds of at least
34
knots (39 miles per hour). When a tropical storm is identified, it formally receives a name
(we'll talk more about naming conventions later in the lesson). Tropical cyclones retain
their
tropical storm status as long as their maximum sustained winds remain between 34 knots
and 63 knots.
• Hurricane: a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 64 knots (74
 Typically, a developing tropical cyclone will evolve from a tropical depression to a tropical
storm before becoming a hurricane (if conditions are favorable for strengthening). It's important to note
that tropical cyclones are classified by their maximum sustained wind speed (an average wind over a
length of time ranging from 1 to 10 minutes, depending on the region of the globe). They are not
classified by maximum wind gusts (short bursts of wind lasting a few seconds). The most intense tropical
cyclones are called hurricanes, but they only go by that name in some parts of the world (including the
United States). Indeed, in other parts of the world, tropical cyclones go by other names. For example, in
the Northwest Pacific Ocean, forecasters use the word typhoon instead of hurricane. In parts of the Indian
Ocean, such storms are called "severe cyclonic storms," while in other parts of the Indian Ocean, they're
called "severe tropical cyclones." So, don't be confused when you hear a terms like typhoon, severe
cyclonic storm, or severe tropical cyclone. They all describe storms that are the same as hurricanes
(tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of at least 64 knots).
At times, I may generically refer to "hurricanes," but keep in mind that such references also include
strong tropical cyclones that go by various labels in ocean basins around the world. Of course, all
"strong" tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons, etc.) are not created equal. Some are much more intense
than others. In the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins, forecasters use the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale to further classify a given hurricane. Hurricanes classified as Category 3, Category 4, or
Category 5 (all hurricanes with maximum sustained winds of at least 96 knots, or 111 mph) qualify as
major hurricanes.
 The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Description

Minor wind damage (to roofs, shingles, siding, gutters, large tree branches, etc.). Damage to power
lines and poles may result in power outages that could last several days.

Extensive wind damage (major roof and siding damage, shallow-rooted trees snapped or uprooted).
Power outages may last several days to weeks.

Devastating wind damage (major damage to, or complete loss of roofs, many trees snapped or
uprooted). Electricity and water likely unavailable for several days to weeks.

Catastrophic wind damage (complete loss of roofs and major damage to exterior walls of some homes,
most trees snapped or uprooted and power poles downed). Power outages may last weeks or months,
making hardest-hit areas uninhabitable.

Catastrophic wind damage (a high percentage of framed homes destroyed, residential areas isolated by
fallen trees and power poles). Power outages will last for weeks or months, making hardest-hit areas
uninhabitable.
 Although major hurricanes make up only 21 percent of the hurricanes that hit the United
States, these fierce storms account for over 83 percent of all the damage from landfalling
hurricanes. Other ocean basins also have different descriptors for extremely intense tropical
cyclones. In the Northwest Pacific Basin, for example, the particularly descriptive classification
of "super typhoon" is used once a typhoon's maximum sustained wind speed reaches at least
130 knots (more than twice the minimum wind-speed criteria for a typhoon). Super typhoons
are the equivalent of a at least a high-end Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

High-resolution enhanced
infrared satellite image of
Super Typhoon Haiyan before
its landfall in the Philippines.
At landfall, Haiyan had
maximum sustained winds of
195 mph.

Credit: NOAA / RAMMB / CIRA

 Like the basic classification scheme for tropical cyclones (tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane),
the categories of the Saffir-Simpson Scale and other descriptors like "major hurricane" and "super typhoon" are all
based on the maximum sustained wind speed within the storm. These winds are usually confined to a relatively
small area of the storm somewhere near the center, so the types of wind damage described by, say, a Category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, typically occur only in areas that take a "direct hit" from the storm (the center
passes nearby). Areas farther from the center may also experience wind damage, but it's typically less severe than
what's described by the storm's Saffir-Simpson rating. Winds, however, are only one hazard posed by tropical
cyclones. Indeed, a tropical cyclone need not even reach hurricane status to cause devastating effects (flooding in
southeast Texas from Tropical Storm Allison in 2001(link is external) is a prime example). So, just because a
tropical cyclone doesn't have strong enough winds to be a hurricane doesn't mean it can't be catastrophic!

You also may have heard of another storm classification, called a subtropical cyclone, which is a "hybrid
storm" of sorts. A subtropical cyclone has characteristics of both tropical cyclones and mid-latitude cyclones,
meaning that it may have a warm core through a small part of the troposphere only while being embedded in a
region of large temperature gradients. So, you may hear meteorologists use the terms "subtropical depression" or
"subtropical storm" to describe these hybrids. Such classifications help meteorologists diagnose a storm's structure
and keep historical records, but most people might not notice a difference in impacts between, say, a subtropical
depression and a tropical depression (their weather impacts would be similar). In case you're wondering, subtropical
cyclones can transition into tropical cyclones if they can fully develop a warm core and organized thunderstorms
around their center, and exit regions of large temperature gradients.
Now that we've covered some basic terms and classifications, we're going to talk
about the climatology of tropical cyclones. In particular, we'll focus on where,
when, and why they tend to form around the world. Read on.

How tropical cyclones are formed?

Cyclones form in low-pressure zones over warm intertropical seas. ... Drawing
energy from the sea surface and maintaining its strength as long as it remains over
warm water, a tropical cyclone generates winds that exceed 119 km (74 miles) per
hour.
WHERE DO TROPICAL CYCLONES ORIGINATE
FROM?
Tropical cyclones are intense circular storms that originate over the warm tropical
oceans with more than 119 kilometres per hour speed and heavy rains. Mainly, the
greatest damage to life and property caused not from the wind but from other
secondary events including storm surges, flooding, landslides and tornadoes.19 May
2020
Tropical cyclones form only over warm ocean waters near the equator. To form a
cyclone, warm, moist air over the ocean rises upward from near the surface. As this air
moves up and away from the ocean surface, it leaves is less air near the surface.

Cyclones form in low-pressure zones over warm intertropical seas. Tropical cyclone,
also called typhoon or hurricane, an intense circular storm that originates over warm
tropical oceans and is characterized by low atmospheric pressure, high winds, and
heavy rain.
 Tropical Cyclone Tracks
Tropical Cyclone Tracks. May 27, 2010. “Tropical cyclone” is the
term for low-pressure storm systems that form in tropical latitudes on
either side of the Equator.

Using a consensus of forecast models, as well as ensemble members

of the various models, can help reduce forecast error. ... An accurate
track forecast is important, because if the track forecast is incorrect,
forecasts for intensity, rainfall, storm surge, and tornado threat will also
be incorrect.
 THE MOVEMENT
The movement of a tropical cyclone (i.e. its "track") is
typically approximated as the sum of two terms: "steering"
by the background environmental wind and "beta drift".[46]

"Cyclone" refers to their winds moving in a circle, whirling round

their central clear eye, with their winds blowing counterclockwise
in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern
Hemisphere. The opposite direction of circulation is due to
the Coriolis effect.
 WHAT DETERMINES THE MOVEMENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE
It has long been observed that the movement of
a tropical cyclone can be described, to a large extent, by
the synoptic-scale flow sur- rounding the cyclone. ... The
pressure level at which the speed and direction of the
surrounding winds best correlate with those of
the cyclone is called the steering level.
 HOW DO TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVE AND ROTATE?
"The air wants to move in a straight line from high to low, but thanks to the Coriolis effect
the air is deflected to the left in the Southern Hemisphere going into the low pressure area in a
clockwise direction.
 THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

The development of a tropical

cyclone disturbance requires specific conditions: The
ocean surface temperature must be above 26°C with a
relatively homogeneous layer at least 60 metres deep,
because the heat and especially the humidity that the
air takes from the ocean are the “fuel” of
the cyclone machine.
 Meteorologists have divided the development of a tropical cyclone into four stages: Tropical
disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm, and full-fledged tropical cyclone.

Tropical cyclones develop in tropical oceans at least 5° - 30°

latitude north or south of the equator, where the sea temperature is
at least 27 °C.
 Tropical cyclones are important on Earth for transferring heat and
energy between the equator and the poles. Low pressure occurs either
side of the equator and together with the air heated over the warm
tropical ocean, results in thundery showers. Occasionally, these thundery
showers group together creating rapidly rising warm air which leads to
the development of a low pressure centre.

Several conditions are needed for a tropical cyclone to form:

 High sea temperatures of at least 27°C.
 Converging winds near the ocean surface forcing air to rise and form
storm clouds.
 Winds that do not vary greatly with height - known as low wind shear.
This allows the storm clouds to rise vertically to high levels;
 Sufficient distance from the equator for a spin such as the Coriolis
force to take effect.
Further aloft at about six
miles, as winds spin
inwards and upwards
releasing heat and
moisture, a cylinder of deep
thunderclouds
(cumulonimbus clouds)
form; the cloud tops are
carried outwards by the
outward-spiralling winds
leaving the tropical cyclone
core cloud free. The cloud
free centre of subsiding air,
which is often dry with little
wind, is referred to as the
eye.
There is a relatively small area of intense horizontal winds at the surface, often well over 100
m.p.h., while air rises strongly above, maintaining the deep cumulonimbus clouds.

The energy which drives a tropical cyclone is transferred as warm water is evaporated from the
tropical ocean. As the air descends, almost all, around 90%, of the stored energy is released by
condensation. This release of heat energy warms the air and the pressure decreases further
resulting in air rising faster to fill the area of low pressure. As the air rises; warmer, moist air from
the ocean is driven into the system creating further energy and resulting in the tropical cyclone
becoming a self- sufficient system. If the tropical cyclone travels over land, the energy source
(tropical ocean) is lost which results in the eventual breakdown of the storm.

As little as 3% of the heat energy may be converted into mechanical energy of the circulating
winds. This relatively small amount of mechanical energy equates to a power supply of
1.5x1012Watts - equivalent to about half the world-wide electrical generating capacity!
 TROPICAL CYCLONE STATISTICS

Tropical cyclone statistics in the

Northeastern Pacific
ABSTRACT
The principal area of tropical cyclogenesis in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean is offshore in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, between 8 and 15° N, and most of these cyclones move towards the west and northwest during
their initial phase. Historical analysis of tropical cyclone data in the Northeastern (NE) Pacific over the last 38
years (from 1966 to 2004) shows a mean of 16.3 tropical cyclones per year, consisting of 8.8 hurricanes and 7.4
tropical storms. The analysis shows great geographical variability of cyclone tracks, and that there were a
considerable number of hurricane strikes along the Mexican coast. About 50% of the tropical cyclones formed
turned north to northeast. It was rare that any passed further north than 30° N in latitude because of the cold
California Current. Hurricane tracks that affected the NE Pacific may be separated into 5 groups. We compared
the historical record of the sea surface temperature (SST), related with the El Niño events with a data set of
tropical cyclones, including frequency, intensity, trajectory, and duration. Although the statistical dependence
between the frequencies of tropical cyclones of the most abundant categories, 1 and 2, over this region and SST
data was not convincing, the percentage of high intensity hurricanes and hurricanes with a long life–time
(greater than 12 days) was more during El Niño years than in non–El Niño years.
Keywords: Tropical cyclone, Northeastern Pacific, hurricane track statistics.
Introduction
Every year a number of tropical cyclones have impact on the NE Pacific subtropical zone.
Sadler (1964) stated that the NE Pacific is second after the Western Pacific in its annual
frequency of hurricanes. Renard and Bowman (1976) determined that a mean of nine tropical
storms and five hurricanes are generated every year in the NE Pacific. Jáuregui (1981)
described characteristics of the NE Pacific hurricanes, and particularly the ones that affected
the northwest coast of México, using the 1962–1979 data sets. This author emphasized that
the western Mexican coast was exposed to a greater number of hurricanes than the coast of
the Gulf of México. The most devastating part of hurricane impact on the western Mexican
coast is due to the high rainfall associated with NE Pacific hurricanes, which can reach 400
mm per day in the coastal mountain areas.
Tropical cyclones of the NE Pacific are normally generated above waters with surface
temperatures higher than 27 °C between May and October, and outside the low–pressure
equatorial belt. Figure 1 shows the distribution of the origins of tropical storms in the NE
Pacific from 1966 to 2004. The maximum frequency zone of cyclone origin was between
latitude 10 and 15° N, and between longitudes 93 and 110° W, close to the Mexican Pacific
coast.
Data and methods
The data used (number of cyclones, intensities, trajectories, maximum wind speeds,
central pressures and categories) were provided by the Unisys Corporation on its web
page http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/ (consulted in April, 2004) by
courtesy of the NOAA National Hurricane Center.
The number of tropical hurricanes by category, month of occurrence and their duration
was compared for El Niño years and non–El Niño years, from 1966 to 2004, using the
chi–square statistical test (Emery and Thompson, 1997).
To compare the historical record of the equatorial NE Pacific SST index provided by the
NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on its web page
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/, (consulted in June, 2006) with a data set
of tropical cyclones, a cross spectral analysis was applied, calculating the spectral
densities for both time–series, cross– and coherence spectra.
Monthly climate composites for the low–troposphere wind and sea level pressure were
analyzed to establish the relationship between these parameters and trajectories of
tropical hurricanes. To do this we used the data base of the NOAA–CIRES Climate
Diagnostics Center provided on its web page
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi–bin/Composites/printpage.pl
Results and discussion
Averaging all the data from 1966 to 2004, 16 cyclones were generated annually in the NE Pacific (Fig. 3), with the largest number
recorded (28) in 1992. About 55% of the cyclones reached hurricane status with wind speeds above 117 km h –1. The annual mean
values of hurricanes of category 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 4, 2, 2 and 2, respectively (Table I). During the 38–year period, only 9 hurricanes
of category 5 were recorded. The months with major cyclonic activity were from July to September (70%) and cyclone life–times varied
from 1 to 25 days with a mean of 6.5 days.
 We analyzed the difference between the hurricane frequencies in the El Niño (1969, 1972–73, 1976–
77, 1982–83, 1986–87, 1991–93, 1997–98 and 2002) years and non–El Niño years. All categories of the
tropical hurricanes were analyzed separately to establish a relationship between tropical hurricane
intensity and El Niño activity (Fig. 4). The number of tropical hurricanes observed between 1966 and
2003 is shown in Table I. Figure 4a presents a comparison between the monthly mean number of
cyclones for El Niño and non–El Niño periods. Chi–square testing (for the confidence interval of 0.95)
showed that the difference between these parameters was statistically significant for the tropical storms
and for the strong hurricanes only (categories 4 and 5); there were no statistical difference between the
hurricane frequencies in El Niño and non–El Niño years for the most abundant categories 1 and 2. So,
there would appear to be a slight trend toward more intense and long–lived hurricanes of categories 3, 4
and 5 during El Niño years. Hypothetically we suppose that the only reason of the no significant statistical
difference for the 1 and 2 categories of the hurricanes in this analysis may be due to the insufficiently
large time series during El Niño years and the small number of hurricanes in some categories. Further
data collection in subsequent years will verify if this apparent trend is real, but the possibility of its
existence warrants some discussion here. Warm surface waters during El Niño years promote latent heat
increasing in the lower atmosphere and provide good conditions for the development of stronger
hurricanes. In these years, an increased percentage of high–energy hurricanes would be expected.
Analysis of the hurricane frequencies for both the El Niño and non–El Niño years (Fig. 4b) shows that the
mean number of tropical storms was actually less during the El Niño years than during the non–El Niño
years. Contrastingly, the mean frequencies for categories 3, 4, and 5 were larger during El Niño years
than during non–El Niño years. These two points are in good agreement with the idea that higher surface
temperature and evaporation should maintain the advanced stages of hurricane evolution. In addition, as
was predicted, there is some evidence that during El Niño years, hurricanes have greater life–time (
Fig. 4c; Table II).
 WRITTEN ASSESSMENT
WEEK 8 TOPIC 2
1.Explain the classification of tropical cyclones
including its,
2.Origin
3.Tracks
4.Movement
5.Development
6.statistics
Prepared by:

2/M ALAN C. MORENO, MME