WORLD

INDICES
ANALYSIS USED HISTORIC DATA UP TO END OF
September 2023
RELEASE TIME: OCTOBER 2023

September 2023
 OVERVIEW- MAIN INDICES HISTORY

Last 1 month Last Year Broad equity market weakness persisted in September – with only the
energy sector in positive territory – reversing the summer’s gains.
Steel (rebars)* -2% - 20 % Subsequently, the seven largest US “technology” stocks once again
Copper -3% - 17 % accounted for most of the S&P 500’s 13% year-to-date return. In fixed
income, 10-year government bond yields continued to hit fresh cycle highs,
Aluminum -1% - 3%
including in the US (4.61%) and Germany (2.93%). In commodity markets,
Brent +8% +3% energy remained in focus: Brent crude oil rose close to 10% to $92 p/b,
World Containers Index* - 10 % - 68 % following the extension of production cuts by Saudi Arabia.

Ordinary Portland Cement* - 0.7 % 0% Prices of copper declined marginally to reach USD 8,331.1 in September
MGO** +4% - 16 % 2023 while a decline in aluminum prices this year is reflecting a global
economic slowdown or nearing the bottom for prices, as per analysts.
VLSFO** +2% -7% Brent crude was priced at an average of approximately USD 90.38 per
barrel in September 2023.

* Global Average
** 2 ports average: Fujairah & Rotterdam
 OVERVIEW- MAIN INDICES FORECAST

Next 2 months Next 6 months Prices will remain buffeted by weak global economic growth and a
strong dollar, at a time of mounting supply risks and some policy
Steel (rebars)* -5% +4%
stimulus in China. These conflicting pressures suggest that prices will be
Copper +4% + 14 % fairly rangebound in the coming months. In particular, we expect energy
Aluminum -1% +5% prices to remain close to current highs on concerns about supply. The
macroeconomic backdrop for commodity prices looks more positive in
Brent +4% + 12% 2024. Demand for many commodities should receive a boost as
World Containers Index* -1% +1% developed economy central banks embark on monetary easing. What’s
more, we expect the US dollar to slip back and risk appetite to improve.
Ordinary Portland Cement* + 0.7 % + 0.7 % That said, subdued growth in China will remain a headwind, particularly
MGO** +5% + 23 % for the oil market which has been a major beneficiary this year from the
lifting of travel restrictions in China
VLSFO** +7% + 21 %

* Global Average
**2 ports average: Fujairah & Rotterdam
***Disclaimer: no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained in the present report .
 CONSTRUCTION IN MIDDLE EAST & NORTH
AFRICA

September 2023 Vs September 2022 ($)

PRICING PER SAND REBAR CEMENT CONCRETE READY MIX ELECTRIC
COUNTRY BLOCK CONCRETE CABLE
KSA - 1.2 % - 0.8 % 0.0 % - 0.5 % - 0.5 % + 0.5 %
UAE + 3.2 % + 5.7 % + 1.4 % + 1.1 % + 1.1 % - 0.5 %
EGYPT + 4.5 % + 31.8 % + 1.3 % + 3.4 % + 4.5 % + 1.1 %
QATAR + 5.4 % + 6.7 % + 13.2 % + 2.3 % - 0.7 % + 0.5 %
MOROCCO + 2.5 % + 6.0 % + 3.4 % + 2.2 % - 1.0 % - 0.3 %
 GLOBAL INDEX OF STEEL: HISTORY & FORECAST
End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) historical change
1-month || 6-months || 12-months
Flat Products Composite:
- 4,8 % || - 22,6 % || - 12 %
STEEL PRODUCTS: 12 M ON THS HISTORY & 6 M ON THS Long Products Composite:
FORECA ST - 1,6 % || - 11,5 % || - 19,3 %
1300 Sections & Beams:
- 1,5 % || - 10,2 % || - 17,9 %
1200
Rebars:
1100 - 2,3 % || - 12,7 % || - 20,2 %
1000

900

800
End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) forecast change
700
1-month || 2-months || 6-months
600
Flat Products Composite:
500 - 7,3 % || - 9,1 % || + 8 %
Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep-
2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 Long Products Composite:
Flat Products Long Products Rebar Sections/Beams
- 3,3 % || - 4,6 % || + 2,4 %
Sections & Beams:
-3,1 % || - 4,5 % || + 0,7 %
Rebars:
- 3,7 % || - 4,9 % || + 3,5 %
 GLOBAL INDEX OF STEEL - HISTORY
• September’s modest decrease in European hot rolled coil prices reflects destocking activity and efforts to stimulate sales in a stagnant market. Demand has
remained subdued since the summer holiday season and its extended shutdown periods. Mills claim that coil prices are now at their breakeven point.
Efforts to raise prices have failed. Europe’s new car registrations were up by 17.9 percent year-to-date by the end of August. Despite the industry’s relative
strength, the demand outlook has weakened. Some automotive sector subcontractors have cancelled orders. Construction, meanwhile, is being stifled by
high interest rates. In Germany, market participants describe a construction sector “in crisis”.

• Downward price pressure persists in the US hot rolled coil market. Activity is low in most steelconsuming sectors. Purchasing is limited. Mill delivery lead
times are between three and six weeks. Market sentiment is negatively affected by the ongoing automotive strikes. Similar conditions are reported in the
neighbouring Canadian market. Domestic producers are looking to fill gaps in their production schedules, by offering substantial price concessions.

• The Chinese steel coil market continues to be negatively affected by oversupply and weak demand. Nevertheless, sentiment is slowly improving. The local
mills are attempting to raise their selling prices, with mixed success. Buyers continue to purchase only for their immediate requirements. The rising cost of
raw materials is putting upward pressure on steel coil prices. Recently introduced stimulus measures are yet to have a significant impact on steel
consumption. Market participants are hopeful that the new government policies will, at least, provide a soft landing to the recent slowdown in the
economy.

• In northern Europe, some rebar benders continue to sell cheaply in the hope of further mill price cuts. Some distributors, meanwhile, are selling cheaply to
generate cash. According to PMI data sourced from S&P Global, via Factset, the German construction sector is contracting faster than those of neighbouring
countries. Cancellations in residential construction have become commonplace. There are no signs of improvement in the near term.

• Rebar is plentiful in the United States and Canada. Regional buyers report that most common dimensions are available almost immediately from mill
stocks. Other items can be obtained within a few weeks from the next scheduled rolling. US purchasing managers report that they have a multitude of
buying options. Consequently, domestic prices fell marginally in the past four weeks. Imported volumes are likely to be less of a consideration after the
closure of the Great Lakes navigation. New price quotations from non-North American rebar suppliers are for January arrival. Demand in the United States
and Canada is mixed. Many existing projects are being completed before the onset of the winter period. However, new investments are being delayed until
2024.

• Chinese rebar prices trended upwards between mid-August and mid-September. Construction activity improved this month, despite ongoing financial
concerns in the real estate sector. Government policies designed to boost property purchases are lifting steel market sentiment. The increased cost of raw
materials is adding to the upward pressure on rebar prices. Export sales volumes are satisfactory as local manufacturers remain competitive with producers
in other .countries
 GLOBAL INDEX OF STEEL - FORECAST
 MEPS predicts that steel prices will remain under downward pressure in the short term.

 Demand is being adversely affected by weakness in the economies of many European countries, strikes at US automotive manufacturers and financial difficulties in the
Chinese real estate sector.

 Most steel distributors and end-users, worldwide, are limiting their purchases, amid the current negative market sentiment.

 Many steelmakers are encountering squeezed profit margins, as steel prices fall and raw material costs, particularly those for coking coal, rise.

 Consequently, they are expected to make concerted efforts to raise their selling values in the early months of 2024.

 Low market stock levels, mill production cuts and the easing of inflationary pressures are forecast to support their initiatives, during that period.
 EGYPT STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (1/2)

Egypt- Rebars: The price of rebar increased in September 2023 compared to the previous Egypt- Sections & Beams: The expansion and development of warehouses in
month. The Building Materials Chambers reported an increase of about EGP 900/ton Egypt are projected to drive the demand for steel sections in the country in
(USD 26) in rebar prices in September 2023. The report also noted that Al-Garhi Steel the coming years. In August 2023, the Government of Egypt started the
Company was the front-runner in increasing the prices of rebar, which created a domino construction of a mega food warehouse. This is the second mega food
effect in the market. warehouse started by the government of the country as a part of the seven
Rising investment in housing construction projects is expected to propel the demand for strategic food warehouses planned by it across the country. According to the
steel rebar in the coming months. For instance, in September 2023, Areva Development Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade, this warehouse is planned to be spread
commenced construction on the Glare mixed-use project in New Cairo, which comprises across 10 acres and is to be developed with an investment worth USD 48.52
offices, clinics, and retail units. The development spans an impressive 6,880 sq. M. and million. Such initiatives by the government of the country are expected to fuel
has seven floors, having a total value of EGP 2.4 billion (USD 78 million). the demand for steel sections in Egypt in the coming years.
 EGYPT STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (2/2)

Egypt- Flat products: The country plans to invest USD 1 billion in an integrated flat steel Egypt- Long Products: In September 2023, there was a small rise in the prices of
production plant with a production capacity of 1.8 tons per annum. The reported ongoing long steel products. This can be attributed to a global increase in the prices of
construction projects in the country are expected to increase the demand for flat steel in raw materials such as iron ore, scrap, and coking coal, which led to a slight
Egypt in the coming months. The approval of a massive industrial city construction costing increase in the manufacturing cost of long products in Egypt. For instance,
USD 16 billion in Tarboul, Giza, Egypt, covering 26,000 acres is expected to positively According to the Building Materials Chambers, steel rebar witnessed a rise of
impact the demand for flat steel and increase the domestic prices. Thus, ongoing projects USD 29/ton in the month of September 2023.
and the development of new projects and investment zones in the country are propelling
the steel sector and boosting the overall economic scenario of the country.
 STEEL PRODUCTS IN EGYPT IN EGP

PRODUCTS 12 MONTHS HISTORY 1 MONTH HISTORY 2 MONTHS FORECAST 6 MONTHS FORECAST

1 $= 31 EGP REBAR + 110 % +3% -2% -4%

LONG + 65 % 0% -3% -8%
FLAT + 60 % 0% -3% -5%
SECTIONS & BEAMS + 52 % +1% -1% 0%
CARBON STEEL PIPE + 58 % 0% +1% -2%
 UAE STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (1/2)

UAE- Rebar: As of September 2023, the rebar prices in the UAE remained stable compared UAE- Sections & Beams: Surged investments in logistics and material supply chains are
to the previous month. The prices were hovering in the range of USD 704 - USD 710 per ton. projected to fuel the construction of warehouses in the UAE, thereby fueling the demand
In the retail sector, secondary mills provided rebar for USD 700 - USD 705 per ton. The for steel sections such as beams, angles, and channels in the country. For instance, in
benchmark mill's delivered rebar at a range of USD 702 - USD 712 per ton. In September September 2023, Fertiglobe partnered with AD Ports Group to explore opportunities in
2023, four steel companies in the UAE, namely CIM Steel Industry LLC, Rhino Steel, Metal logistics and supply chains. The company aims to reduce its greenhouse gas footprint by
Care Center Factory LLC, and Aziz Steel, joined forces under the Umm Al Quwain Industrial improving its operational efficiency and automating its logistics.
City Authority (UICA). Together, they planned to invest almost AED 501 million (USD 136 In September 2023, the Ministry of Economy of the UAE announced that Zencargo, a UK-
million) in capital expenditure. As per their agreement, these firms are preparing to convert based cargo company, has joined its NextGenFDI program. The company plans to start
1.4 million square feet of land into a specialized metal zone to build a modern cold rolling operations in the UAE to develop a trade, technology, and logistics ecosystem.
mill complex that can produce 500,000 tons annually, to establish the Middle East's initial
completely automated continuous coating line with a yearly potential of 250,000 tons of
Aluzinc coil production, to build a steel melt shop and downstream long product rolling mill
with an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons and to start production on steel forming
lines. It is expected to have a production capacity of 120,000 tons per year, manufacturing
roll-formed products such as pipes, tubes, and patented "Vision" brand aluminum products.
These products include drywall partition systems and ceiling systems, which are registered
in both the UK and GCC.
 UAE STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (2/2)

UAE- Flat Products: The UAE witnessed a marginal increase in flat steel prices in UAE- Long Products: The UAE long product prices in September 2023 was stable as
September 2023 compared to the previous month. This is primarily due to the compared to the previous month. Rising investment in the construction of luxury
country's surge in steel scrap prices. This price rise is also witnessed in flat steel hotels is expected to propel the demand for long-term products in the said forecast
imports from Turkey. Nonetheless, the demand for flat steel has remained stable and period. For instance, in September 2023, Marjan, a prominent developer in Ras Al
is expected to increase robustly in the UAE owing to the ongoing construction Khaimah, UAE, announced that a new W Hotel will be launched on Al Marjan Island in
projects in full swing. the UAE by 2027. This exciting project is the result of a collaboration between Marriott
International and real estate investment company Dalands Holding.
 KSA STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (1/2)

KSA- Rebars: In September 2023, rebar prices increased in Saudi Arbia due to a shortage KSA- Sections & Beams: The increase in the number of warehouses and the expansion of the
of billet and increased prices of steel scrap. Some of the tier-three rebar producers in logistics business in Saudi Arabia are expected to fuel the demand for steel sections in the
Saudi Arabia raised their prices to USD 738 per ton in cash. Meanwhile, tier-two mills, Al country. The Government of Saudi Arabia aims to develop the logistic infrastructure to
Rajhi and Al Ittefaq based in Riyadh and Dammam, increased their rebar quotes to USD diversify the local economy in the country. It has announced a Master Logistics Centers plan to
725 per ton. strengthen its logistic infrastructure. This plan includes the development of 59 logistics centers
Rising investment in infrastructure and housing projects is expected to propel steel spread across 100 million square meters. It also comprises 17 logistic centers in the eastern
consumption in the coming years. For instance, in September 2023, a megaproject was province, 12 in the Makkah region, 12 in the Riyadh region, and 18 in the remaining regions of
launched near Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, which includes an 11km canal. The Roshn Group, the country.
Saudi Arabia's largest developer owned by the Kingdom's Public Investment Fund, The competition in the steel industry of Saudi Arabia is continuously intensifying as companies
announced plans to develop Marafy, which is located north of Jeddah and is able to in the country are focusing on improving their product mix to enhance their market share. For
accommodate over 130,000 residents upon completion in 2025. instance, in September 2023, SABIC announced the divestment of its subsidiary Saudi Iron and
Steel Company (Hadeed). The subsidiary was acquired by the Public Investment Fund (PIF) at a
value of USD 3.33 billion. SABIC is planning to expand and focus on its chemical business
through this divestment.
 KSA STEEL PRODUCTS - 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST (2/2)

KSA- Flat Products: Few steel mills have improved the flat steel prices, whereas KSA- Long Products: In September 2023, Saudi Arabia faced a shortage of 8–10mm cold-
others have kept the prices flat for flat steel products. The prices have marginally drawn wire rods due to a high demand from fabricators. As a result, the benchmark mill's
increased owing to reduced margins caused by the rise in local scrap prices, thereby product prices increased by SAR 50–100/ton (USD 13.3–26.6).
pushing up the prices for billet and other steel products. Furthermore, the demand In September 2023, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) of Saudi Arabia announced to acquire
for flat steel is stable with ongoing construction projects such as NEOM in Saudi the Saudi Iron & Steel Company (Hadeed) from the Saudi Basic Industries Corporation
Arabia, which continue to boost the flat steel demand in the country. The demand is (SABIC) for USD 3.3 billion. Additionally, Hadeed will acquire AlRajhi Steel Industries
set to increase with the introduction of green steel plants in the country and help Company (Rajhi Steel) from Mohammed Abdulaziz AlRajhi & Sons Investment Company
move toward a sustainable economy. (Rajhi Invest). PIF stated that these acquisitions will aid in the development of the local
The growing opportunity for flat steel and other steel products in Saudi Arabia has industry and meet the growing demand for steel products in various sectors, such as
led to Essar Group planning to invest USD 4.5 billion in partnership with Desert construction, automotive, utilities, renewable energy, transportation, logistics, and more,
Technologies (DT), a solar company. The partnership is expected to develop in compliance with the Saudi Vision 2030.
renewable energy solutions at Essar’s existing flat steel complex in the country It is
said to be GCC’s first-ever green steel plant, and it aims to start production by 2027.
 ORDINARY PORTLAND CEMENT (OPC) GLOBALLY* - HISTORY & FORECAST (1/2)
KSA: The first half of 2023 was difficult for KSA cement manufacturers. For instance, Southern Province’s
GLOBAL OPC: 12 MONTHS HISTORY & 6 cement net profit declined by 68.9% in H1 2023 compared to H1 2022. Inflation and high interest rates
affected the sales volume and demand for cement in the KSA in H1 2023. The demand pressure is
MONTHS FORECAST anticipated to persist throughout 2023, and the sales are anticipated to be lower in 2023 than in 2022.
The country’s exports dropped to 620 kilotons, a fall of 21.3% compared to August 2022. In addition, the
104
FORECAST sales declined by 9.6%, dropping from 4.38 million tons to 3.6 million tons. Despite facing fluctuations in
manufacturing cost and demand, the country’s cement industry withstood and gave a positive outcome.
Considering the industry’s vitality and growing inclination toward carbon-free production, Hoffman
103 Green Cement Technologies and Shurfah Group signed a 22-year licensing agreement to build and
operate KSA’s first clinker-free cement plant. Its construction is anticipated to commence in 2024. This
new plant aims to support decarbonization in KSA’s construction sector as the country has set its net-
zero emission target by 2060.
102

Egypt: In Egypt, cement producers reported higher sales in H1 2023 compared to H1 2022, although
there was still a loss. For instance, South Valley Cement’s H1 2023 sales were USD 15.02 million, around
101 42% higher than H1 2022. However, the company still reported a loss of around USD 2.5 million, which
was 35% less than the H1 2022 loss. Companies are focusing on sustainable practices. For instance,
Lafarge Egypt announced plans to reduce its carbon emissions by 50% by 2030. The company has
initiated steps such as opting for alternative fuels and reducing the clinker factor in cement production to
100 achieve this goal. Construction sector is anticipated to keep cement demand steady and have a positive
Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar-
22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 impact on prices. For instance, as of September 2023, the country completed the USD 52 million project
for building houses for workers in the new satellite city, Badr, near Cairo. The growing construction
industry is expected to boost cement consumption in Egypt in the coming months

GLOBAL* HISTORY GLOBAL* FORECAST UAE: The growth of construction industry in the UAE is anticipated to augment cement demand in the
long run. Residential sector is a vital recipient of cement as the country has various projects in the
12 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 MONTH 1 MONTH 2 MONTHS 6 MONTHS pipeline. Some upcoming residential projects include Rahman Island, Reem Hills, Saadiyat Reserve, and
Water’s Edge. The growing demand for cement is anticipated to enhance the UAE’s cement production
- 0.3 % - 1.2 % 0.6 % 0.2 % 0.7 % 0.7 % and imports, thereby positively influencing its price. Manufacturers in the country are expanding their
production plans and introducing sustainable practices. For instance, in September 2023, JSW Cement
announced certain key milestones, one of which was a new clinker line in the UAE, which is expected to
be completed by December 2023. Also, UltraTech Cement Ltd. inked a deal with India Cements Ltd. and
purchased land in Andhra Pradesh, extending its footprints across the UAE.

* GLOBAL AVERAGE OF: KSA-UAE-EGYPT-QATAR-MOROCCO-INDIA-CHINA-EUROPE

 ORDINARY PORTLAND CEMENT (OPC) GLOBALLY* - HISTORY & FORECAST (2/2)

Qatar: The real estate sector of Qatar witnessed a boom, as according to the Ministry of Justice, 795 transactions were registered in the country
worth QR 4.375 billion (~USD 1.20 billion) in Q2 2023. The surge in property sales gives encouragement and confidence towards investments in
Qatar and new project development. The country’s ongoing projects are anticipated to have a positive impact on cement demand and prices. For
instance, in September 2023, the Public Works Authority (Ashghal) completed two phases of the Citizen's Subdivisions project in South Al Meshaf.
The growth in real estate sector is expected to prove beneficial for cement demand in the country and eventually have a positive influence on the
cement price.

Morocco: By application, the infrastructure segment increased cement offtake by 30.2%, reaching 71.2 kilotons, whereas the prefabricated segment saw an
increase of 15.8%, reaching 112.5 kilotons. All sectors witnessed an increase, except the building sector, whose off-take was 41.9 kilotons, down by 14.1%.
Cement imports, demand, and prices are anticipated to surge in Morocco in the coming months, on account of the severe 6.8 magnitude earthquake that hit the
country on September 8, 2023, the largest earthquake in the country in the last 120 years. A new agency is expected to ensure the reconstruction and
rehabilitation of affected areas with a USD 11.7 billion program. The program cost is distributed in financial aid, reconstruction, implementation of socio-
economic development initiatives, and other various sectors. The reconstruction is expected to enhance the demand for cement and concrete, thus increasing
its price.
 NON-FERROUS METALS- COPPER

FORECAST Prices of copper declined marginally to reach USD 8,331.1 in September 2023. Rising
inventories coupled with high interest rates have contributed to this decline. The
upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting is causing challenges for the market. Fed is
not expected to increase the interest rates this week; however the prospect of
maintaining these rates at high levels has led to uncertainty in the market. As per the
analysts, higher rates are expected to remain over a longer time amidst rising inflation
concerns. In addition to the interest rate challenges, slow economic growth in China
and higher debt in the real estate sector of the country have also impacted copper
prices. Depreciating pressure on the Yuan against the U.S. dollar could affect China’s
demand for industrial metals. As per analysts, the pressure is temporary as Yuan has
declined 5% on year-to-date levels. Inventory challenges are another key factor for the
declining copper prices over the short term. LME copper stocks rose by 175% since
July 2023 to 149,000 tons, reaching the highest levels since May 2022. The rise in
supply has thus put pressure on inventory levels, which resulted in inventory build-up.
This has created pricing pressure, with declining copper prices since July 2023. The
prices are expected to remain low over the next few months as inventory levels reach
record highs. However, by 2027, a copper supply shortfall of 5.4 million tons is
expected, which could push the copper prices by 15 to 20% to reach USD 9,800 per
End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) historical change ton. Global copper demand is expected to reach 29.8 million tons by 2027, supported
1-months || 6-months || 12-months by green energy transition in transportation and other industrial end uses. Global
- 3 % || - 24 % || - 17 % investment flow is increasing in energy-transition-related industries, which is expected
to benefit the copper demand over the long run.

End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

1-month || 2-months || 6-months
- 1,5 % || + 4 % || + 14 %
 NON-FERROUS METALS ALUMINUM

FORECAST End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) historical change

1-month || 6-months || 12-months

- 1 % || - 5 % || -3%

End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

1-month || 2-months || 6-months
- 1 % || - 1 % || + 5 %

A decline in aluminum prices this year is reflecting a global economic slowdown or nearing the bottom for prices, as per analysts. However, the aluminum demand is expected
to rise on account of the expansion of the clean energy sector. The aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange declined by one-fifth since the January peak and more
than 40% compared to last year’s highs, mainly due to the economic slowdown in the U.S. and Europe and weak construction demand from China. However, many producers
and suppliers are expected to be bullish over the medium term, mainly due to a high demand from electric vehicle and solar panel companies. Many traders have bought the
aluminum at a discount on future prices, this reflects weak spot demand and expectation that future prices will rise over the coming months. By 2027, aluminum is to have a
supply shortfall of 30.7 million tons despite an increase of 10% in production over the same period. This is projected to increase the aluminum prices to USD 3,000 by 2027.
Pressure to cut energy costs and emissions is expected to benefit aluminum recycling production to boost the aluminum supply by 2028. Currently, the aluminum demand has
lost its momentum owing to the poor performance of China’s real estate sector. China is also the largest consumer of aluminum, therefore, recovery of the Chinese real estate
sector over the long term is expected to benefit the aluminum demand at the international level. In 2027, global aluminum demand is expected to reach 108.2 million tons,
supported by the replacement of heavier steel with aluminum in vehicles and the expansion of electricity grid infrastructure.
 BUNKERS - Oil Brent Barrel 12 Months History & 6 Months Forecast

FORECAST
End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) historical change
1-month || 6-months || 12-months

+ 8 % || + 17 % || + 3 %

End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

1-month || 2-months || 6-months

+ 2 % || + 4 % || + 12 %

Brent crude was priced at an average of approximately USD 90.38 per barrel in September 2023. Oil prices surged in the first week of the month and remained increasing in the second
week of September as well. On September 5, 2023, prices for Brent crude oil rose to the highest in 10 months reaching USD 90 as the largest OPEC+ oil producers such as Saudi Arabia
extended supply cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day on Brent crude through December. In the third week of the month, OPEC announced an expected supply shortfall of 3.3 million
barrels per day in Brent crude over the next three months as a result of oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia. The aforementioned factor has been surging Brent crude oil prices by 2% from
the second week of September. In the fourth week of August 2023, Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1% to reach USD 93.43 from USD 94.34 owing to unchanged federal interest
rates. However, they are expected to increase by end of 2023 that is anticipated to raise Brent crude oil prices. In the fifth week of September 2023, these prices increased slightly owing
to a supply crunch in the Brent crude oil market due to an announcement by Russia to temporarily ban oil exports. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil
production in OPEC countries is predicted to increase from 28.6 million bpd in 2022 to 28.1 million bpd in 2023 and 28.5 million bpd in 2024. Moreover, global fuel consumption is
expected to rise from an average of 98.6 million bpd in 2022 to 101.2 million in 2023. The surged global fuel consumption is expected to lead to demand for increasing the supply of
Brent crude oil. Hence, it is expected to result in decreased Brent crude oil prices in near future.
 MARINE FUEL – MGO ROTTERDAM & FUJAIRAH

MARINE FUEL MGO: 12 MONTHS HISTORY MGO- MARINE GAS OIL

& 6 MONTHS FORECAST
1,400 FORECAST Fujairah: End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) historical change
1,300 1-month || 6-months || 12-months
1,200
1,100
1,000 + 2 % || - 11 % || - 24 %
900
800
Fujairah: End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) forecast change
700
600 1-month || 2-months || 6-months
500
Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar Apr- May Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar
22 22 22 22 23 23 -23 23 -23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 -24 + 4 % || + 9 % || + 28 %
Fujairah Rotterdam
Rotterdam: End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) historical change
Marine Gas Oil (MGO) prices registered a growth of 6.8% at Rotterdam port. An increase of 1.5% in MGO prices was 1-month || 6-months || 12-months
registered at Fujairah Port; MGO prices witnessed fluctuations in the first week of the month due to major
deviations in crude oil prices. Price fluctuations were witnessed in the month of September due to supply cuts by + 7 % || + 24 % || - 7 %
OPEC countries and Russia till the end of the year. Port of Fujairah accounted for the highest sales in eight months in
August 2023. However, the availability of marine fuels remained lower from the year-ago. According to MDI, in the Rotterdam: End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) forecast change
MGO segment, Rotterdam port was undervalued by 18 points, Singapore port was undervalued by 14 points, and
1-month || 2-months || 6-months
Fujairah by 12 points. On September 10, Monjasa announced the supply of bio bunker fuels in Latin America as
demand for green fuel increases as a result of the revised IMO 2050 climate strategy to ensure a broad fuel
transition from fossil fuels for the global merchant ships fleet. On September 25, Brazilian fuel supplier Ipiranga 3 % || + 2 % || + 19 %
announced the launch of MGO supply to domestic vessels in Rio de Janeiro port, Brazil. In the fifth week of the
month, Russia announced plans to exclude bunker fuel from the oil products export ban. The country’s energy
ministry has prepared a draft to exclude bunker fuel and gas oils from export ban announced earlier this month.
This resulted in a slight decrease in MGO prices for the week; however, increase in MGO supply is expected.
Moreover, production cuts by major marine oil suppliers like Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to restrain the
growth of MGO prices in the coming months.
 MARINE FUEL - VLSFO ROTTERDAM & FUJAIRAH

VLSFO (very low sulfur fuel oil)

MARINE FUEL MGO: 12 MONTHS Fujairah: End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) historical change
HISTORY & 6 MONTHS FORECAST 1-month || 6-months || 12-months
850 FORECAST 3 % || 12 % || - 8 %
800
Fujairah: End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) forecast change
750 1-month || 2-months || 6-months
+ 4 % || + 8 % || + 26 %
700

650
Rotterdam: End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) historical change
600 1-month || 6-months || 12-months
+ 2 % || + 12 % || - 6 %
550

500 Rotterdam: End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar Apr- May Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar
22 22 22 22 23 23 -23 23 -23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 -24 1-month || 2-months || 6-months
+ 4 % || + 6 % || + 16 %
Fujairah Rotterdam

The price of VLSFO witnessed significant growth in the first week of the month. VLSFO prices followed a negative trend. Prices in Rotterdam port decreased by USD 3/mt to
599.50/mt, and prices at Fujairah declined by USD 4.50/mt to USD 631.50/mt. On September 1, Montfort announced the expansion of the Emirates bunkering market with the
initiation of the supply of VLSFO in the region. The company has installed three refueling barges with a capacity of 100,000 tons of marine fuels per month. In the second week of
the month, VLSFO prices witnessed a positive trend; prices in the world’s top 20 refueling hubs were USD 668.50 per ton which is 16% more than prices of June 2023. According
to MDI, VLSFO prices in Singapore emerged underpriced by 24 points. Moreover, prices in other ports like Fujairah and Rotterdam decreased by 16 and 5 points as weekly average.
On the other hand, Houston registered a significant decrease in the overpriced ratio with 17 points. In the fifth week of the month, VLSFO prices decreased slightly due to an
announcement by Russia to exclude bunker. fuels from its ban on oil exports implemented earlier this month to stabilize fuel prices in the domestic market. On September 26,
Bunker One and Acelen announced a partnership to launch a bunkering operation at the port of Itaqui. The aforementioned initiative is expected to increase the supply of VLSFO
in the region, negatively affecting the price. VLSFO prices at top ports registered a negative trend at the end of the month. Prices at Rotterdam decreased by USD 3/mt to USD
617/mt and prices at Fujairah fell by USD 10/mt to USD 650/mt. VLSFO prices are expected to increase in the coming months as a result of supply cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia.
However, Russia lifted the ban on bunker fuel exports which will suppress the prices for temporarily
 LOGISTICS- World Container Index (WCI)
The World Container Index (WCI) falling streak continued after a slight increase in
August 2023. The composite index declined by over 12.0% in September 2023
FORECAST compared to the previous month. On a y-oy basis, the decline was around 70%.
The WCI decline indicates the normalizing of the price, however, it still remains
about 4% over the 2019 average, i.e., before the pandemic.
Major decline was witnessed in China to Europe routes. In the fourth week of
September 2023, the y-o-y decline in cost for the Shanghai-Rotterdam route was
81%, whereas for the Shanghai-Genoa route was 71%. For Shanghai to New York
route the decline was around 63% and that for Shanghai to Los Angeles was 39%.
For Rotterdam to New York, the decline was 78% and that for New York to
Rotterdam was 40%.
In September 2023, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) announced that daily
transit limits and draft restrictions are expected to remain in place until next year.
The ACP has also warned that it may make additional transit reductions if the
drought persists. The backlog at the waterways was caused by a reduction in the
number of ships passing the canal daily. The number of ships that transit per day
under normal conditions dropped from 36 to 32. The continuation of the drought
in the Panama Canal can impact the shipping industry in the coming months as it
can increase the transit time and fuel consumption of ships if diverted to long
End of Sep percentage (%) historical change routes.

1-month || 6-months || 12-months

- 10 % || - 12 % || - 68 %

End of Sep 2023 percentage (%) forecast change

1-month || 2-months || 6-months

- 1 % || - 1 % || + 1 %
Glossary
Steel Rebar is mostly traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange. The standard future contract is 10 tons.
Steel is one of the world’s most important materials used in construction, cars and all sorts of machines and appliances. By far the
biggest producer of crude steel is China, followed by European Union, Japan, United States, India, Russia and South Korea.

Copper futures are widely traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME), at the COMEX and on the Multi-Commodity Exchange in
India. The standard contract is 25,000 lbs. Copper is the third most widely used metal in the world. Chile accounts for over one third of
world's copper production followed by China, Peru, United States, Australia, Indonesia, Zambia, Canada and Poland. The biggest
importers of copper are China, Japan, India, South Korea and Germany.

Aluminum futures are mostly traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME), the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) and the
Shanghai Futures Exchange. The standard future contract size is 5 tons. Aluminum is used widely in aerospace applications,
packaging, automobiles and railroad cars and as a construction material. The biggest producers of aluminum are: The Aluminum
Corporation of China (Chalco), Alcoa and Alumina Ltd, Rio Tinto from Australia, UC Rusal of Russia, Xinfa from China, Norsk
Hydro ASA from Norway and South 32 from Australia. China accounts for nearly 60 percent of global aluminum output. The biggest
resources of bauxites, the raw material for aluminum are located in Australia, China and Guinea.
Glossary
Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) is the most important cement type as it is widely used and all the research and tests on cement are
carried out on OPC in general. Ordinary portland cement is a cementing material obtained by fine grinding of portland clinkers with a
little amount of gypsum to adjust the setting time and prevent flash setting.

Brent Crude oil is a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide. While Brent Crude oil is sourced from the North Sea the
oil production coming from Europe, Africa and the Middle East flowing West tends to be priced relative to this oil.