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Chapter 11

The Basics of Capital Budgeting

Net Present Value (NPV)


Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)
Regular Payback
Discounted Payback
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What is capital budgeting?

• Analysis of potential additions to fixed assets.


• Long-term decisions; involve large expenditures.
• Very important to firm’s future.

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Steps to Capital Budgeting

1. Estimate CFs (inflows & outflows).


2. Assess riskiness of CFs.
3. Determine the appropriate cost of capital.
4. Find NPV and/or IRR.
5. Accept if NPV > 0 and/or IRR > WACC.

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What is the difference between independent
and mutually exclusive projects?

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Net Present Value (NPV)

• Sum of the PVs of all cash inflows and outflows of a


project:
CFtN
NPV   t
t0 ( 1  r )

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Example

Projects we’ll examine:


Cash Flow
Year L S CF
0 -100 -100 0
1 10 70 -60
2 60 50 10
3 80 20 60
CF is the difference between CFL and CFS. We’ll use
CF later.
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What is Project L’s NPV?

WACC = 10%
Year CFt PV of CFt
0 -100 - $100.00
1 10 9.09
2 60 49.59
3 80 60.11
NPVL = $ 18.79

Excel: =NPV(rate,CF1:CFn) + CF0


Here, CF0 is negative.
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What is Project S’ NPV?

WACC = 10%
Year CFt PV of CFt
0 -100 - $100.00
1 70 63.64
2 50 41.32
3 20 15.02
NPVS = $ 19.98

Excel: =NPV(rate,CF1:CFn) + CF0


Here, CF0 is negative.
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NPV for Project L & S

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Solving for NPV:
Financial Calculator Solution

Enter CFs into the calculator’s CFLO register.


CF0 = -100
CF1 = 10
CF2 = 60
CF3 = 80

Enter I/YR = 10, press NPV button to get NPVL = $18.78.

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Rationale for the NPV Method

NPV = PV of inflows – Cost


= Net gain in wealth
• If projects are independent, accept if the project
NPV > 0.
• If projects are mutually exclusive, accept projects
with the highest positive NPV, those that add the
most value.
• In this example, accept S if mutually exclusive
(NPVS > NPVL), and accept both if independent.

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Practice Session

WACC for both projects 10%

After-tax end of year


Initial Cost
cashflows Total Cash
Inflows
Year 0 1 2 3 4
Project A $1000 $500 $400 $300 $100 $1300
Project B $1000 $100 $300 $400 $675 $1475

Using NPV method, appraise the projects A & B


i.If they are independent projects
ii.If they are mutually exclusive projects
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NPV for Project L & S

After-tax end of year


WACC = 10% Initial Cost
cashflows Total Cash
NPV = PV CF - Cost
Inflows
Year 0 1 2 3 4

DF @ 10% 1 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683


Project A -1000 500 400 300 100 1300

PV Cashflows
(A)
-1000 454.5 330.4 225.3 68.3 1078.5 78.5

Project B -1000 100 300 400 675 1475

PV Cashflows 461.02
(B)
-1000 90.9 247.8 300.4
5
1100.125 100.125

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Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

• IRR is the discount rate that forces PV of


inflows equal to cost, and the NPV = 0:
N
CFt
0 t
t0 (1  IRR)
• Solving for IRR with a financial calculator:
IRR – discount rate
PV Cash Inflows = Initial cost
– Enter CFs in CFLO register. NPV= 0
– Press IRR; IRRL = 18.13% and
NPV = PV cash Inflows – Initial
IRRS = 23.56%. cost
• Solving for IRR with Excel:
=IRR(CF0:CFn,guess for rate)

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How is a project’s IRR similar to a bond’s YTM?
• They are the same thing.
• Think of a bond as a project. The YTM on YTM is the rate of
return which is
the bond would be the IRR of the “bond” generated by a bond
project. over a period up to
its maturity.
• EXAMPLE: Suppose a 10-year bond with a
9% annual coupon and $1,000 par value If the future
cashflows of interest
sells for $1,134.20. and redemption price
– Solve for IRR = YTM = 7.08%, the annual are discounted using
YTM, PV of such
return for this project/bond. cashflows will be
– Market Value = PV Interest + PV equal to its actual
market price.
Redemption value
– 1134.20 = PV ($90) for 10 years + PV $1000
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Rationale for the IRR Method

• If IRR > WACC, the project’s return exceeds its costs


and there is some return left over to boost
stockholders’ returns.
If IRR > WACC, accept project.
If IRR < WACC, reject project.
• If projects are independent, accept both projects,
as both IRR > WACC = 10%.
• If projects are mutually exclusive, accept S, because
IRRs > IRRL.

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What is the payback period?

• The number of years required to recover a project’s


cost, or “How long does it take to get our money
back?”
• Calculated by adding project’s cash inflows to its
cost until the cumulative cash flow for the project
turns positive.

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Calculating Payback

Project L’s Payback Calculation


0 1 2 3

CFt -100 10 60 80
Cumulative -100 -90 -30 50
30 80

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Strengths and Weaknesses of Payback

• Strengths
– Provides an indication of a project’s risk and liquidity.
– Easy to calculate and understand.
• Weaknesses
– Ignores the time value of money.
– Ignores CFs occurring after the payback period.

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Discounted Payback Period

Uses discounted cash flows rather than raw CFs.

0 10% 1 2 3

CFt -100 10 60 80
PV of CFt -100 9.09 49.59 60.11
Cumulative -100 -90.91 -41.32 18.79

Disc PaybackL = 2 + 41.32 / 60.11 = 2.7 years

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Practice Session

Evaluate the projects A & B using payback period and


discounted payback period technique of capital
budgeting (WACC=10%)
0 1 2 3

(Project A) CFt -1000 200 750 600

0 1 2 3

(Project B) CFt -1000 800 250 350

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Capital Budgeting

IRR PBP NPV

PBP < life of the


Independent IRR>WACC project NPV>0

Accept

Mutually Highest IRR Highest Positive


exclusive (IRR>WACC) Least PBP NPV

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Practice Session

WACC = 15% Initial Cost After-tax end of year cashflows

Year 0 1 2 3 4
Project A -10000 2500 4000 5300 1900
Project B -10000 1700 3000 6400 3500
Help the company choosing the project using NPV, IRR , PBP & Discounted PBP, when
projects are
a.Mutually exclusive
b.Independent
WACC=15%
(A) NPV=230.34; IRR=13.87%; PBP=2.66; DPBP=3.05
(B)NPV= - 44.06; IRR=14.81; PBP=2.83; DPBP=3.14

WACC=10%
(A) NPV=858.21; IRR=13.87%; PBP=2.66; DPBP=3.05
(B)NPV= 1223.76 ; IRR=14.81; PBP=2.83; DPBP=3.14
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What is the difference between normal and
nonnormal cash flow streams?

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Multiple IRRs

NPV

IRR2 = 400%
450
0 WACC
100 400
IRR1 = 25%
-800

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Why are there multiple IRRs?

• At very low discount rates, the PV of CF2 is large and


negative, so NPV < 0.
• At very high discount rates, the PV of both CF 1 and
CF2 are low, so CF0 dominates and again NPV < 0.
• In between, the discount rate hits CF 2 harder than
CF1, so NPV > 0.
• Result: 2 IRRs.

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Reinvestment Rate Assumptions

• NPV method assumes CFs are reinvested at the


WACC.
• IRR method assumes CFs are reinvested at IRR.
• Assuming CFs are reinvested at the opportunity cost
of capital is more realistic, so NPV method is the
best. NPV method should be used to choose
between mutually exclusive projects.
• Perhaps a hybrid of the IRR that assumes cost of
capital reinvestment is needed.

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Since managers prefer the IRR to the NPV method, is
there a better IRR measure?

• Yes, MIRR is the discount rate that causes the PV of


a project’s terminal value (TV) to equal the PV of
costs. TV is found by compounding inflows at
WACC.
• MIRR assumes cash flows are reinvested at the
WACC.

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Calculating MIRR

0 1 2 3
10%
-100.0 10.0 60.0 80.0
10%
10% 66.0
12.1
MIRR = 16.5%
-100.0 158.1
PV outflows TV inflows
$158.1
$100 =
(1 + MIRRL)3
MIRRL = 16.5%

Excel: =MIRR(CF0:CFn,Finance_rate,Reinvest_rate)
We assume that both rates = WACC.
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Why use MIRR versus IRR?

• MIRR assumes reinvestment at the opportunity cost


= WACC. MIRR also avoids the multiple IRR
problem.
• Managers like rate of return comparisons, and
MIRR is better for this than IRR.

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Find Project P’s NPV and IRR

Project P has cash flows (in 000s): CF 0 = -$800, CF1 =


$5,000, and CF2 = -$5,000.
0 1 2
WACC = 10%

-800 5,000 -5,000

• Enter CFs into calculator CFLO register.


• Enter I/YR = 10.
• NPV = -$386.78.
• IRR = ERROR Why?
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When to use the MIRR instead of the IRR? Accept
Project P?

• When there are nonnormal CFs and more than one


IRR, use MIRR.
– PV of outflows @ 10% = -$4,932.2314.
– TV of inflows @ 10% = $5,500.
– MIRR = 5.6%.
• Do not accept Project P.
– NPV = -$386.78 < 0.
– MIRR = 5.6% < WACC = 10%.

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NPV Profiles

• A graphical representation of project NPVs at


various different costs of capital.

WACC NPV L NPV S


0 $50 $40
5 33 29
10 19 20
15 7 12
20 (4) 5

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Independent Projects

NPV and IRR always lead to the same accept/reject


decision for any given independent project.

NPV ($)
IRR > r r > IRR
and NPV > 0 and NPV < 0.
Accept. Reject.

r = 18.1%

IRRL = 18.1% r (%)


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Mutually Exclusive Projects

NPV If r < 8.7%: NPVL > NPVS


IRRS > IRRL
L CONFLICT
If r > 8.7%: NPVS > NPVL ,
IRRS > IRRL
NO CONFLICT
S

%
r 8.7 r
IRRL IRRs
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Finding the Crossover Rate

• Find cash flow differences between the projects.


See Slide 11-7.

• Enter the CFs in CFj register, then press


 IRR. Crossover rate = 8.68%, rounded to 8.7%.

• If profiles don’t cross, one project dominates the


other.

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Reasons Why NPV Profiles Cross

• Size (scale) differences: the smaller project frees up


funds at t = 0 for investment. The higher the
opportunity cost, the more valuable these funds, so
a high WACC favors small projects.
• Timing differences: the project with faster payback
provides more CF in early years for reinvestment. If
WACC is high, early CF especially good, NPV S > NPVL.

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Practice session

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NPV Method
NPV Advantages NPV Disadvantages
Incorporates time value of Accuracy depends on
money. quality of inputs.

Not useful for comparing


projects of different sizes,
Simple way to determine if
as the largest projects
a project delivers value.
typically generate highest
returns.

May omit hidden costs such


Considers a company's cost
as opportunity costs and
of capital.
organizational costs.

Accounts for inherent


Purely quantitative in
uncertainty of projections
nature and does not
by most heavily discounting
consider qualitative factors.
far-future estimates.
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