Chap 007
Chap 007
Chap 007
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
“A market is the combined behavior of
thousands of people responding to
information, misinformation, and whim.”
— Kenneth Chang
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Learning Objectives
7-3
Controversy, Intrigue, and Confusion
• It may surprise you to learn that evidence strongly suggests that the
answer to this question is “probably not.”
7-4
Market Efficiency
7-5
What Does “Beat the Market” Mean?
7-6
Three Economic Forces that Can
Lead to Market Efficiency
• Arbitrageurs exist.
– Suppose collective irrationality does not balance out.
– Suppose there are some well-capitalized, intelligent, and rational investors.
– If rational traders dominate irrational traders, the market will still be efficient.
These conditions are so powerful that any one of them leads to efficiency.
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Forms of Market Efficiency,
(i.e., what information is used?)
7-8
Information Sets for Market Efficiency
7-9
Why Would a Market be Efficient?
7-10
Some Implications of Market Efficiency, I.
Does Old Information Help Predict Future Stock Prices?
– Some researchers have been able to show that future returns are partly
predictable by past returns. BUT: there is not enough predictability to
earn an excess return.
– Also, trading costs swamp attempts to build a profitable trading system
built on past returns.
– Result: buy-and-hold strategies involving broad market indexes are
extremely difficult to outperform.
• If you were to ask people you know whether stock market prices are
predictable, many of them would say yes.
• That is, stock price increases are about as likely as stock price
decreases.
7-12
Random Walks and Stock Prices, Illustrated.
7-13
How New Information Gets into Stock Prices, I.
• In its semi-strong form, the EMH states simply that stock prices fully
reflect publicly available information.
• Stock prices change when traders buy and sell shares based on
their view of the future prospects for the stock.
• But, the future prospects for the stock are influenced by unexpected
news announcements.
7-14
How New Information Gets into Stock Prices, II.
7-15
Event Studies, I.
7-16
Event Studies, II.
• On Friday, May 25, 2007, executives of Advanced Medical Optics, Inc. (EYE), recalled
a contact lens solution called Complete MoisturePlus Multi Purpose Solution.
• Advanced Medical Optics took this voluntary action after the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC) found a link between the solution and a rare cornea
infection.
• EYE Executives chose to recall their product even though no evidence was found that
their manufacturing process introduced the parasite that can lead to AK.
• Further, company officials believed that the occurrences of AK were most likely the
result of end users who failed to follow safe procedures when installing contact lenses.
• On Tuesday, May 29, 2007, EYE shares opened at $34.37, down $5.83 from the
Friday closing price.
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Event Studies, III.
7-18
Event Studies, IV.
• When researchers look for effects of news on stock prices, they must make
sure that overall market news is accounted for in their analysis.
• To separate the overall market from the isolated news concerning Advanced
Medical Optics, Inc., researchers would calculate abnormal returns:
• The expected return is calculated using a market index (like the Nasdaq 100
or the S&P 500 Index) or by using a long-term average return on the stock.
• Researchers then align the abnormal return on a stock to the days relative to
the news announcement.
– Researchers usually assign the value of zero to the news announcement day.
– One day after the news announcement is assigned a value of +1.
– Two days after the news announcement is assigned a value of +2, and so on.
– Similarly, one day before the news announcement is assigned the value of -1.
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Event Studies, V.
• According to the EMH, the abnormal return today should only relate
to information released on that day.
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Event Studies, VI.
7-21
Event Studies, VII.
• After the news was released, there was a large, sharp downward
movement in the CAR.
• That is:
– There is a band of cumulative abnormal returns
– A sharp break in cumulative abnormal returns, and
– Another band of cumulative abnormal returns.
7-22
Informed Traders and Insider Trading, I.
7-23
Informed Traders and Insider Trading, II.
7-24
Informed Trading
7-25
Legal Insider Trading
• When you hear the term insider trading, you most likely
think that such activity is illegal.
7-26
Who is an “Insider”?
7-27
Illegal Insider Trading
7-28
It’s Not a Good Thing: What did Martha do? (Part 1)
• The SEC believed that Ms. Stewart was told by her friend, Sam Waksal, who
founded a company called ImClone, that a cancer drug being developed by
ImClone had been rejected by the Food and Drug Administration.
• Martha Stewart sold her 3,928 shares in ImClone on December 27, 2001.
– On that day, ImClone traded below $60 per share, a level that Ms. Stewart
claimed triggered an existing stop-loss order.
– However, the SEC believed that Ms. Stewart illegally sold her shares because
she had information concerning FDA rejection before it became public.
• The FDA rejection was announced after the market closed on Friday,
December 28, 2001.
• This news was a huge blow to ImClone shares, which closed at about $46
per share on the following Monday (the first trading day after the information
became public).
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It’s Not a Good Thing: What did Martha do? (Part 2)
• In June 2003, Ms. Stewart and her stock broker, Peter Bacanovic, were
indicted on nine federal counts. They both plead not guilty.
• Just days before the jury began to deliberate, however, Judge Miriam
Cedarbaum dismissed the most serious charge of securities fraud.
• Ms. Stewart, however, was convicted on all four counts of obstructing justice.
– Judge Cedarbaum fined Ms. Stewart $30,000 and sentenced her to five months in
prison, two years of probation, and five months of home confinement.
– The fine was the maximum allowed under federal rules while the sentence was
the minimum the judge could impose.
– Peter Bacanovic, Ms. Stewart's broker, was fined $4,000 and was sentenced to
five months in prison and two years of probation.
So, to summarize:
Martha Stewart was accused, but not convicted, of insider trading.
Martha Stewart was accused, and convicted, of obstructing justice.
7-30
Are Financial Markets Efficient, I?
• But, market efficiency is difficult to test for these four basic reasons:
– The risk-adjustment problem
– The relevant information problem
– The dumb luck problem
– The data snooping problem
7-31
Are Financial Markets Efficient, II?
7-32
Some Implications if Markets are Efficient
7-33
Market Efficiency and the Performance
of Professional Money Managers, I.
• Let’s have a stock market investment contest in which you are going
to take on professional money managers.
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Market Efficiency and the Performance
of Professional Money Managers, II.
7-35
Market Efficiency and the Performance
of Professional Money Managers, III.
• The previous slide shows the number of these funds that beat the
performance of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund.
• You can see that there is much more variation in the dashed blue
line than in the dashed red line.
• What this means is that in any given year, it is hard to predict how
many professional money managers will beat the Vanguard 500
Index Fund.
• But, the low level and variation of the dashed red line means that the
percentage of professional money managers who can beat the
Vanguard 500 Index Fund over a 10-year investment period is low
and stable.
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Market Efficiency and the Performance
of Professional Money Managers, IV.
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Market Efficiency and the Performance
of Professional Money Managers, V.
7-38
Market Efficiency and the Performance
of Professional Money Managers, VI.
– In only six of the 21 years (1986—2006) did more than half beat the
Vanguard 500 Index Fund.
– In only two of these 21 investment periods, did more than half the
professional money managers beat the Vanguard 500 Index Fund.
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Market Efficiency and the Performance
of Professional Money Managers, VII.
7-40
Market Efficiency and the Performance
of Professional Money Managers, VIII.
• Using data from 1977 through 2006, we divide this time period into:
– 1-year investment periods
– Rolling 3-year investment periods
– Rolling 5-year investment periods
– Rolling 10-year investment periods
7-41
Market Efficiency and the Performance
of Professional Money Managers, IX.
• If markets are inefficient, and tools like fundamental analysis are valuable,
why can’t mutual fund managers beat a broad market index?
7-42
What is the Role for Portfolio
Managers in an Efficient Market?
• Some factors that influence portfolio choice include the investor’s age, tax
bracket, risk aversion, and even employer. Employer?
– Suppose you work for Starbucks and part of your compensation is stock options.
– Like many companies, Starbucks offers its employees the opportunity to purchase
company stock at less than market value.
– You can imagine that you could wind up with a lot of Starbucks stock in your
portfolio, which means you are not holding a diversified portfolio.
– The role of your portfolio manager would be to help you add other assets to your
portfolio so that it is once again diversified.
7-43
Anomalies
• We will now present some aspects of stock price behavior that are
both baffling and potentially hard to reconcile with market efficiency.
7-44
The Day-of-the-Week Effect:
Mondays tend to have a Negative Average Return
7-46
The Amazing January Effect, II.
7-47
The Turn-of-the-Year Effect, I.
7-48
The Turn-of-the-Year Effect, II.
• As you can see, the “Turn of the Year” returns are higher than the
“Rest of the Days” returns.
7-49
The Turn-of-the-Month Effect, I.
• On the next slide, we have separated daily stock market returns into
two categories.
– “Turn of the Month Days:” Daily returns from the last day of any month or
the following three days of the following month
– “Rest of the Days:” Any other daily returns
7-50
The Turn-of-the-Month Effect, II.
7-51
Bubbles and Crashes
7-52
The Crash of 1929
7-53
The Crash of 1929—The Aftermath
7-54
The Crash of 1987
• On October 19, 1987, the DJIA lost about 22.6% of its value on a
new record volume (about 600 million shares)
7-55
The Crash of 1987—Aftermath
7-56
Circuit Breakers
7-57
The Asian Crash
• The crash of the Nikkei Index, which began in 1990, lengthened into
a particularly long bear market.
• The Asian Crash started with a booming bull market in the 1980s.
7-58
The Asian Crash—Aftermath
7-59
The “Dot-Com” Bubble and Crash, I
• By the mid-1990s, the rise in Internet usage and its global growth
potential fueled widespread excitement over the “new economy.”
7-60
The “Dot-Com” Bubble and Crash, II
7-61
Chapter Review, I.
7-62
Chapter Review, II.
• Anomalies
– The Day-of-the-Week Effect
– The Amazing January Effect
– Turn-of-the-Year Effect
– Turn-of-the-Month Effect
7-63