CoBRA

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Cost Estimation, Benchmarking, and
Risk Assessment
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effort estimation model
Outline
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 Recap
 Project Management Methodologies-PERT
 CoBRA – Effort Estimation Model
 practical examples,
 Graphical illustrations
 Guidelines from practice
 Illustration of real-world CoBRA usage
 Application cases from various industrial contexts
 Exercise (Do yourself)
 Summery of the lecture
 What next……..
 Motivational Quotation for eLearning
3

If you're not benchmarking your performance against

your competitors, you're just playing with yourself.
Al Paison
To me, business is the ultimate sport. It's always on.
There is always someone trying to beat me."
Mark Cuban
Nobody is an industry of one."
Peerview Data
 What iconic figures say about CoBRA…
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The CoBRA method is a way of integrating the “Art” and the “Science” of software
estimation, which is usually believed to be a “Black Art.” The CoBRA method demystifies
the Black Art of software estimation.
–Yasushi Ishigai
Research Director at Research Center for Information Technology
Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., Japan
We had not been able to imagine building our own software estimation models until we
encountered the CoBRA method. As far as combining project data and expert judgment for
the purpose of software effort estimation is concerned, we can definitely say that there are
no other methods that are comparable to CoBRA.
–Morihiko Shinoda, Deputy Department Manager
–Yutaka Masaoka, Senior Engineer
Government, Public Sector Systems Division
Hitachi Solutions, Ltd, Japan
 What iconic figures say about CoBRA…
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 We used the CoBRA method for early-stage estimation of system integration projects. We
were very satisfied with CoBRA because we could easily model relevant cost drivers that
are specific to our own context as well as base development productivity. From limited use
in one group, we have now expanded its use to department-wide activities.
–Yasushi Aizaki
Manager at Systems Development Division
NTT Data Sekisui Systems, Japan
I am convinced that the CoBRA method has a high potential of resolving “acquisition
issues” related to the accountability of software costs in IT business, which enduringly
persist on the side of IT customers. That’s because the models are very simple and easy to
build and can be understood even by non-IT professionals.
–Hiroshi Iwakiri
General Manager
Information Systems Business Unit
Mitsubishi Electric Corporatio
 What is CoBRA?? effort estimation model
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 Cost Estimation, Benchmarking, and Risk Assessment—CoBRA

 combines human judgment and measurement data in order to
systematically create a custom-specific effort estimation model.
 To whom this topic is related ?
 This group primarily: project managers and project estimators
 Terminologies we must know before start…
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 cost
 “the amount or equivalent paid or charged for something” - cost is
defined in a monetary sense, fixed infrastructure and administrative
costs
 effort
 “the total work done to achieve a particular end.” - manpower spent
on performing activities aimed at providing a certain product or service
 In software engineering literature and practice, “cost” is often used as a
synonym for “effort.”
 Terminologies we must know before start…
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 Estimation: “the act of judging tentatively or approximately the value,

worth, or significance of something”
 Prediction: “the act of declaring or indicating in advance; especially
foretelling on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason”
 Planning: “the act or process of making or carrying out plans; specifically
the establishment of goals, policies, and procedures for a social or
economic unit”

Adam Trendowicz
 Some vital question to be asked??
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Why Software Effort Estimation?

Software Is Getting Complex
software has become the major driving force of the overall progress in the meanwhile. For example, it is said that 60–90 % of all
advances in the automotive domain nowadays are due to software systems.
Software Development Is Getting Complex?
rigid requirements on software functionality, quality, cost, and time to market, there are several external constraints that make software
development a very complex task

Development Technologies and Paradigms Change Rapidly

Development Distribution Increases
Software Development Is still Largely a Human-Intensive Process
“Eighty percent of software work is intellectual. A fair amount of it is creative. Little of it is clerical.”
Software Products Have an Abstract Character
 Project Management Is a Key Success Factor
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 The complex and multi-dependent character of software development makes managing software
projects a challenging task.
 an organization’s survival and growth require effective means for managing software projects.

 A software project also requires, as one of its key success factors

effective management.
Effective project management requires considering numerous issues.
It must focus on areas that are critical for
financial success, on the
effective use of resources, on an
analysis of market potential and opportunities for innovation,
a learning environment, etc……
 Effort Estimation Is the Basis for Effective Project
Management
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 Barry Boehm (1981), “Poor management can increase software costs more rapidly
than any other factor
 Glass (2002) points out poor effort estimation as one of the two most common
causes of runaway projects, besides unstable requirements.
 Rosencrance (2007), in her survey of more than 1,000 IT professionals, reports that
two out of the three most important causes of IT project failure are perceived to
be related to poor effort estimation
 Effective project management requires reliable effort and schedule estimation.
 What Is a Good Estimate?

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a good estimate is one that supports a project manager in successful

project management and successful project completion. A good
estimation method is thus an estimation method that provides such
support, without violating other project objectives such as project
management overhead.
 Why the CoBRA Method?

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 Several effort estimation methods have been proposed in recent decades.

 Each estimation method has its strengths and limitations

 Goodness largely depends on the context in which it is applied.

 method represents one of the two extreme estimation strategies:

1. expert-based
2. data-driven.
The first group bases effort predictions on the judgment of human experts,
latter group uses only measurement data to derive effort predictions.
 Why the CoBRA Method?

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 Jørgensen and Boehm (2009) propose the hybrid methods, which

combine the strengths of both strategies while avoiding their
weaknesses.
 combination of estimation approaches can substantially improve the

accuracy of estimates.
(1) combining multiple estimation paradigms, such as expert-based and

data-driven methods, into a hybrid method and

(2) combining multiple estimates provided by independent estimation

methods
 Why the CoBRA Method?

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 High estimation accuracy: The CoBRA method has proven in a number

of industrial applications that it provides highly accurate estimations, with
estimation error ranging from 9 to 14 %.
• Minimal data requirements: The CoBRA method requires only information on
size and effort from about ten already completed (“historical”) projects. Even
though these data are not available at the time of estimation, they can typically
be easily elicited postmortem. Actual project effort is typically documented,
and software size can be measured based on the project outcomes such as
requirements specification or software code.
 Why the CoBRA Method?

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Reusable cost model: The CoBRA effort model can be reused, completely or in
parts across similar projects.
Organizational learning: The CoBRA method provides a systematic process for
eliciting knowledge hidden in the experts’ minds and in measurement data and
for documenting it within a transparent and intuitive effort model.
• Comprehensive project management support: The CoBRA method supports
a number of project management activities such as estimation, project scope
negotiations, risk analysis, benchmarking, and process improvement.
• Organizational growth: The CoBRA method provides a systematic and intuitive
approach for analyzing factors that influence the performance of software
development processes and project effort. In that sense, it supports the understanding of development
processes and helps to identify important improvement
potentials.
• Building up of a measurement system:
 Principles of the CoBRA Method
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The Cost Estimation, Benchmarking, and Risk Assessment (CoBRA method combines
multiple prediction approaches in that it aggregates techniques representing expert-
based and data-driven estimation paradigms, within one hybrid estimation method.
Nominal effort (Effort Nom) is the engineering and management effort spent on
developing a software product of a certain size in the context of a nominal project.
A nominal project is a hypothetical “ideal” project in a certain environment of an
organization (or business unit).
 Principles of the CoBRA Method continues…
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 It is a project that runs under optimal conditions, that is, a

project where all environmental characteristics having an
impact on project effort are at their “best” levels (“perfect”)
from the start of the project. “best” refers to realistic levels
that are possible in a certain context
 Principles of the CoBRA Method continued….
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 Effort overhead (EO) is the additional effort spent on overcoming imperfections of a real
project environment, such as insufficient skills of the project team. Effort overhead refers
to a nonproductive project effort spent in addition to the nominal effort.
 Nominal productivity (PNom) refers to development productivity under optimal project
conditions, that is, the productivity of a nominal project where all effort factors have their
best levels. In general, productivity refers (IEEE-1045 1993) to the ratio between a
project’s output and input.
 The difference between nominal and actual productivity (productivity loss) is proportional
to the portion of additional nonproductive effort
 Components of an Effort Model

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CoBRA implements the idea of nominal project effort and effort

overhead through two basic components of an effort model the effort
overhead model and the productivity model.
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22 What next ……………..
CoRBA (Risk Management And Risk assessment Tool) continue..
Software Cost Estimation, Benchmarking and Risk Assessment