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    Week 9-1 - H0 and H1 (Updated)

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    Darren Neo
    1. Hypothesis testing involves formulating a null hypothesis (H0) and alternative hypothesis (H1) about a population parameter. H0 typically represents no change or effect, while H1 represents a change or effect. 2. A random sample is used to either reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is uncertainty inherent in using a random sample rather than a census of the population. 3. To account for this uncertainty, hypothesis testing uses a "buffer zone" around the expected value under the null hypothesis, only rejecting H0 if the sample value is sufficiently far outside this zone.

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    Week 9-1 - H0 and H1 (Updated)

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    Darren Neo
    24 views11 pages
    1. Hypothesis testing involves formulating a null hypothesis (H0) and alternative hypothesis (H1) about a population parameter. H0 typically represents no change or effect, while H1 represents a change or effect. 2. A random sample is used to either reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is uncertainty inherent in using a random sample rather than a census of the population. 3. To account for this uncertainty, hypothesis testing uses a "buffer zone" around the expected value under the null hypothesis, only rejecting H0 if the sample value is sufficiently far outside this zone.

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    Week 9-1 - H0 and H1 (updated)

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    1. Hypothesis testing involves formulating a null hypothesis (H0) and alternative hypothesis (H1) about a population parameter. H0 typically represents no change or effect, while H1 represents a change or effect. 2. A random sample is used to either reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is uncertainty inherent in using a random sample rather than a census of the population. 3. To account for this uncertainty, hypothesis testing uses a "buffer zone" around the expected value under the null hypothesis, only rejecting H0 if the sample value is sufficiently far outside this zone.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    24 views11 pages

    Week 9-1 - H0 and H1 (Updated)

    Uploaded by

    Darren Neo
    1. Hypothesis testing involves formulating a null hypothesis (H0) and alternative hypothesis (H1) about a population parameter. H0 typically represents no change or effect, while H1 represents a change or effect. 2. A random sample is used to either reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is uncertainty inherent in using a random sample rather than a census of the population. 3. To account for this uncertainty, hypothesis testing uses a "buffer zone" around the expected value under the null hypothesis, only rejecting H0 if the sample value is sufficiently far outside this zone.

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    Hypothesis testing

    1. Introducing H0 and H1
    Statistical model Random
    𝑋 𝑁 ( ? ,? ) sample

    1. Confidence interval
    Use the random sample to estimate the “?” by an interval [ , ]
    E.g., Using a random sample and a 90% CI, we estimate
    the average # of steps that a NTU student takes per day is
    between [4767.383,5232.617] steps
    Statistical model Random
    𝑋 𝑁 ( ? ,? ) sample

    2. Hypothesis testing (HT)


    Use the random sample to test a statement (H0) about the value of “?”
    Let me test whether “the average # of steps that a NTU student takes is equal
    to 5000” is plausible or not
    Mathematically, we want to verify ,” using a sample as evidence
    HT describes a method to converting a random sample to a yes-no conclusion
    about the statement
    Boston marathon

    The average finishing time is 3.97 hours, based on real data from
    the 2017 race (data file in course website)
    Understand and
    • The “null” hypothesis ( can be the status quo, or our current knowledge of the
    parameter (i.e., )
    • Our target parameter is the population mean of finishing time (), among all
    runners of a marathon race like this one
    “I want to test whether the average finishing time has changed since 2017 or not”
    3.97hr.
    “Before putting up the advertisement, sales per day are $1,000 (. I want to test
    whether the sales has changed in the presence the advertisement” $1000 / day
    • is the alternative hypothesis that encompasses all the other possible values not
    in (i.e., “all else”)
    is auto-generated based on
    Two types of
    Depending on the purpose of your study, your may take the form of
    equality or inequality

    : Average finishing time has not changed since 2017 (3.97 hr)
    : Average finishing time has changed since 2017 ( 3.97 hr)

    : Average finishing time has not improved since 2017 (3.97 hr)
    : Average finishing time has improved since 2017 ( 3.97 hr)
    Hypothesis testing (HT): key concept 1
    : (hours)
    :
    HT is a rule to decide supporting or not, based on a sample (from
    sample conclusion)
    Objective is to use sample to choose between these two opposing
    conclusions:
    a) “I do not find sufficient evidence against H0 “
    b) “I find sufficient evidence against H0”
    Hypothesis testing (HT): key concept 2
    : : 3.97

    A: Reject H0
    B: Not Reject

    To decide a) or b), I collected a random sample of 50 runners of the


    2019 marathon (. Sample mean is 4.0 hours.
    Since 4.0 is different from 3.97, is it right to reject ? If not, why not?
    Let’s analyze this 
    When H0 is true and (which we don’t know is true or not)
    My evidence: the sample mean of 50 runners may take this form
    (by CLT):

    (given , by CLT)

    Sample mean could deviate from 3.97 even when H0 is true—this


    distribution or uncertainty is due to “sampling” (instead of a census)
    So…not wise to reject H0 when differs only slightly with 3.97 (hr)
    Hypothesis testing (HT): key concept 2
    :
    :

    (given , by CLT)

    When , it is “quite likely” to get near 3.97, say 4.0. But it’s quite
    unlikely to get =5.0 or 3.0
    We will set a “buffer zone” around 3.97, for which we consider normal
    (pun unintended)
    Concept 2: We will allow some “buffer” in sample information,
    before rejecting
    Summary of hypothesis testing
    • Analyse the problem and formulate H0 and H1
    - H0: Null hypothesis (no change; no effect). H1: Alternative hypothesis
    (there is a change, or an effect on status quo)
    • Key concept #1:
    We use the sample, either to reject H0, or NOT reject H0
    • Key concept #2:
    The sampling process induces uncertainty -> Rationally, we create a
    “buffer” in making the rejection decision

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