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    SeismicHazard Introduction

    Uploaded by

    Cis Ie
    This document discusses seismic hazards and risk mitigation. It defines seismic hazards as ground shaking and effects from earthquakes like fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides and tsunamis. It distinguishes between hazard, which is the probability of earthquakes, and risk, which considers vulnerability and exposure. Risk is reduced by understanding hazards through fault mapping, codes to strengthen buildings, and early warning systems. Practical approaches are discussed like avoiding construction on faults, compacting soils in liquefaction-prone areas, and evacuating coasts after large quakes to escape tsunamis. The document stresses understanding local hazards to guide engineering and planning that reduces earthquake impacts.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    SeismicHazard Introduction

    Uploaded by

    Cis Ie
    32 views26 pages
    This document discusses seismic hazards and risk mitigation. It defines seismic hazards as ground shaking and effects from earthquakes like fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides and tsunamis. It distinguishes between hazard, which is the probability of earthquakes, and risk, which considers vulnerability and exposure. Risk is reduced by understanding hazards through fault mapping, codes to strengthen buildings, and early warning systems. Practical approaches are discussed like avoiding construction on faults, compacting soils in liquefaction-prone areas, and evacuating coasts after large quakes to escape tsunamis. The document stresses understanding local hazards to guide engineering and planning that reduces earthquake impacts.

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    SeismicHazard_introduction

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    This document discusses seismic hazards and risk mitigation. It defines seismic hazards as ground shaking and effects from earthquakes like fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides and tsunamis. It distinguishes between hazard, which is the probability of earthquakes, and risk, which considers vulnerability and exposure. Risk is reduced by understanding hazards through fault mapping, codes to strengthen buildings, and early warning systems. Practical approaches are discussed like avoiding construction on faults, compacting soils in liquefaction-prone areas, and evacuating coasts after large quakes to escape tsunamis. The document stresses understanding local hazards to guide engineering and planning that reduces earthquake impacts.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    32 views26 pages

    SeismicHazard Introduction

    Uploaded by

    Cis Ie
    This document discusses seismic hazards and risk mitigation. It defines seismic hazards as ground shaking and effects from earthquakes like fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides and tsunamis. It distinguishes between hazard, which is the probability of earthquakes, and risk, which considers vulnerability and exposure. Risk is reduced by understanding hazards through fault mapping, codes to strengthen buildings, and early warning systems. Practical approaches are discussed like avoiding construction on faults, compacting soils in liquefaction-prone areas, and evacuating coasts after large quakes to escape tsunamis. The document stresses understanding local hazards to guide engineering and planning that reduces earthquake impacts.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 26

    Materi presentasi

    • Definition & Type


    • Hazard vs Risk
    • What to do?
    • Practical approaches
    DEFINITION & TYPE

    Seismic Hazard ???


    DEFINITION & TYPE

    Seismic Hazard is the probability of occurrence of a specified


    level of ground shaking in a specified period of time. But a
    more general definition includes anything associated with an
    earthquake that may affect the normal activities of people, i.e.
    surface faulting, ground shaking, landslides, liquefaction,
    tectonic deformation, and tsunamis.
    DEFINITION & TYPE

    • Ground Rupture

    Alaskan pipe after the


    Denali quake ruptured
    through

    Ground rupture from the M8.1


    2001 Tibet earthquake
    DEFINITION & TYPE

    • Shaking
    – Wave
    amplitude
    – Wave
    frequency
    – Duration of
    shaking
    DEFINITION & TYPE

    • Liquefaction
    1964
    – Saturated sand Nigata
    loses strength Japan
    upon shaking

     Tsunami
     Wave wavelength 2004
    Sumatra
    ocean waves that earthquake
    can travel vast
    distances
    DEFINITION & TYPE

    Global seismic hazard

    (Allen, 2007)
    Hazard vs Risk

    The amount of damage and numbers of


    earthquake related deaths do not correlate
    to magnitude of the earthquake.
    Hazard vs Risk

    Relation between Risk and Hazard

    Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure

    Seismic Risk is expressed in terms of economic costs, loss


    of lives or environmental damage per unit of time.
    Vulnerability is the degree of damage caused by various
    levels of loading. The vulnerability may be calculated in a
    probabilistic or deterministic way for a single structure or
    groups of structures.
    Exposure is the number of people, buildings, structures that
    are exposed to the hazard. This is called an inventory.
    Hazard vs Risk

    Roles of Scientist and Engineer

    Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure


    • Scientist (Seismologist,Geophysicist, Geologists, etc)
    define the seismic hazard
    • Engineers (civil eng,architect,masons, etc.) reduce the risk
    by decreasing the vulnerability of structures to ground
    motion

    It is the job of the geophysicists to provide hazard


    assessments (- but not risk assessments.)
    What to do?

    Reducing earthquake risk begins with understanding the


    earthquake potential and the ground shaking that is to be
    expected in future earthquakes.
    Much of the risk may be mitigated by:
    • Implementation of Early Warning Systems.
    • Improvement and implementation of building codes.
    • Fault mapping.
    • Hazard Assesment.

    But….
    What about Prediction?
    What to do?

    Early Warning System (EWS)

    In many cases, the magnitude of an impending


    earthquake may be estimated a few tens of seconds
    prior to the arrival of the destructive ground motion to
    the populated area. In such cases, many lives may be
    saved simply by:
    • Shutting down power supplies.

    • Shutting down of nuclear reactors.

    • Stopping or reducing the speed of fast trains.


    What to do?

    Building codes

    • Earthquake don’t kill - buildings do


    (but also tsunami).
    • Earthquake resistant construction
    costs only 10% more than
    nonresistant construction.
    • Structures in CA built after 1976,
    when a new building code was
    implemented, suffered very little
    damage in the 1989 Loma Prieta
    and the 1994 Northridge.
    • The implementation gap.
    What to do?
    Fault mapping

    * Earthquakes occur on
    faults.

    * Yet, the location of some


    major faults is unknown.
    What to do?

    Hazard Assessment

    • Active fault map


    • Historical seismicity
    • Earthquake likelihood
    What to do?

    Lesson from the Hurricane Katrina example:

    It is possible to make high probability short term predictions for


    hurricanes, as was done in the case of hurricane Katrina. Still an
    estimated 1800 people were killed in New Orleans and
    neighboring areas. About 50% of New Orleans residences still
    have not yet returned to the city.

    What about Earthquake Prediction?


    Practical Approaches

    How would you mitigate damages


    from….
    • Ground Rupture
    • Liquefaction
    • Ground Shaking
    • Tsunami
    Practical Approaches

    Ground Rupture
    • Avoid construction
    • Relocate sensitive facilities
    • Implement low use facilities
    – Playing fields
    – Green space
    Practical Approaches

    Portola Valley California


    Practical Approaches
    Practical Approaches

    Liquefaction
    • Recognize liquefaction potential
    • In-situ remediation
    • Avoid construction in liquefaction prone
    areas
    Practical Approaches

    Tsunami mitigation
    • Early warning system
    – Broadcast signal to beaches after a major
    earthquake anywhere in the ocean basin
    • Safetey guidelines
    – Go to high ground
    – Climb a tree
    Practical Approaches

    Ground Shaking
    • Recognize the degree of probable ground
    shaking in the area
    • Improve construction methods to
    accommodate shaking without collapse
    PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD METHODOLOGY
    a Earthquake sources b c
    Ground motion

    peak ground acceleration


    M7.6 every 250yrs- 0.004 event/yr Hazard curve
    r1 d1

    exceeding pga
    annual rate of
    d4
    r2 d2
    M 7.6
    San

    M7.6
    d3
    And

    high seismicity
    re

    zone d2
    as f

    0.25g 0.5g
    distance
    a

    peak ground acceleration (pga)


    u lt

    r3

    To calculate the hazard curve (annual rate of exceeding ground motions) we:
    1. Determine magnitude, M, of earthquake and distance to a point, d2,
    2. Calculate ground motion distribution for that M and d2.
    3. Calculate the product:
    annual rate of earthquake *probability that earthquake will exceed certain ground motion level
    4. Sum these rates for all earthquakes in the model at each ground motion to get a hazard curve.
    This curve shows the annual rate or probability of exceedance of each ground motion.
    • Thank You

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