Clive Wilkinson: Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network

Status and Trends
of Coral Reefs
and
Impacts of Climate Change

on Reefs
Clive Wilkinson
Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network
CORAL REEFS are
Biodiversity Extremely high biodiversity

Highest in SE Asia W Pacific
The Coral Triangle
Food & Shelter Millions of people depend on them

About 500 million
30 million very dependent
Economic Base 100 countries with reefs

~30 with only reefs
$13,200 per hectare p.a
(spend 0.1% to conserve)
but CORAL REEFS
Threatened Degrading fast (near people)

Direct Human pressures
Global Climate Change
Poor Awareness, Capacity, Political Will
Solutions Conserve biodiversity in habitats -

MPAs networked & large
Assist Small Countries esp. SIDS
Multi-disciplinary – good science,
economics, law, management, policy
Status of Coral Reefs 1992
• 10% effectively lost
• 30% critical state – loss in 10 to 20 years*
• 30% threatened state – loss in 20 to 40 years*
• 30% remaining healthy
* unless we act soon

(estimates based on few data)
Reefs @ Risk analysis (World Resources Institute)
• 27% at high risk of loss
• 31% at medium risk of loss
• 42% at low risk of loss
estimates based on some data

• 16% lost in 1998 big bleaching event
• 18% threatened state – loss in 20 to 40 years*
(Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2000)

• 21% threatened state – loss in 20 to 40

years*
(Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2004)

Status of Coral Reefs 1992 - 2004
year Reefs Reefs Reefs Reefs

lost % critical threatnd healthy
1992 10 30 30 30
1998 * 27 31 42
2000 27 14 18 41
2004 20 19 21 40
Coral Reef Status over 16 years
• Reefs lost x2 from 10% to 20%

• Due to human activity
• About 40% reefs healthy
• Most remote reefs OK (climate change
major threat)
• Discovering deep warm water reefs &
cold water reefs
• BUT all reefs threatened by climate

change
Coral Reef Status
• Red Sea - healthy

• Persian Gulf – devastated by Climate
Change (1996, 1998 and since)
• Indian Ocean – 1998 losses recovering
slowly; human damage in East Africa
• South Asia – continuing to decline after
1998;
Coral Reef Status
• SE & N Asia – saddest case, biodiversity
centre with largest pressures
• Australia – OK & well managed;
• Pacific – generally healthy, esp remote reefs

Coral Reef Status
Wider Caribbean –
• massive declines in 1980s & 2005
• possibly lost 80% of coral & & &
• pollution, over-fishing, coral disease &

bleaching
• Severe economic losses

Caribbean Status
100
90
80
70
Mean cover % (weighted)
Hard Coral Cover
60
Sample Size (weighted)
50
40
30
20
10
0
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Year
Top 10 Threats to Coral Reefs
Global Change Threats:
• Coral bleaching
• Rising levels of CO2
• Diseases, Plagues and Invasives
Direct Human Pressures:
• Over-fishing (& destructive fishing)
• Sediments
• Nutrients
• Development
Governance, Awareness and Political Will:
• Poor management capacity
• Rising poverty & growing populations
• Low Political Will
Top 10 Threats to Coral Reefs
Global Change Threats:
• Coral bleaching – from rising sea
temperatures from global climate change
• Rising levels of CO2 – dissolved in

seawater; will reduce coral calcification
• Diseases, Plagues and Invasives – all

cause damage & linked to human
disturbance
Climate Change & Coral Reefs
1998 2005
From Hadley Climate Center, UK; red line is 10 year running average.
1998 El Nino Bleaching event – 6 month accumulated hotspots
Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef
• 1o HotSpot image – July 2005
• 2o HotSpot image – August 2005
• 3o HotSpot image – September 2005
4o HotSpot image – October 2005
No hurricanes through Lesser Antilles.
Caribbean in 2005
• Most severe bleaching year

• 51% coral loss in US Virgin Islands
• >> ½ corals bleached in affected areas
e.g. Jamaica, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Florida
• Severe coral death in Lesser Antilles
• Most severe hurricane year
• 2006, 2007 corals still diseased
Major Threats to Coral Reefs
• Over-fishing (& destructive fishing) –
bomb & cyanide fishing, & fishing beyond
sustainable yields, destroys reefs
• Sediments - from poor land use,

deforestation, & dredging smother corals
Bomb fishing can reduce
This to this
• Nutrients and Chemical pollution –carried
with sediments, sewage, & industry wastes -
stress corals
• Development on coasts – dredging, land

clearing, ports, airports, harbours;
reclaiming coral reefs; excess coral rock &
sand mining
The Human Dimension – Governance,
Awareness and Political Will:
• Poor management capacity –countries
have few trained personnel & equipment for
• management,
• raising awareness,
• enforcement &
• monitoring;
• most MPAs not managed effectively
Rising poverty & growing populations – all put

more pressures on reef resources beyond
sustainability
Low Political Will –solutions require strong political

will & governance of resources; assist with
Integrated Oceans Governance
Solutions for Reef Biodiversity
Better Governance
Assist Developing Countries (esp SIDS) to:

• Devolve authority to local governments &
communities
• Improve communication, education, awareness
raising on $ value of biodiversity &
conservation & MPAs
• Reduce population & poverty traps
Multilateral Environment Agreements

Assist Developing Countries to:
• Integrate MEA meetings
• regional pre-meetings, group countries
• Ensure training is required & combined
• Educate how to use MEAs
• Harmonise reporting (& meetings)
• Assist in application / report writing
Integrated Coastal Management

• Reduce sediments & nutrients e.g.
forestry, agriculture, development,
sewerage
• Make reef fisheries sustainable & protect

breeding stocks
• Develop sustainable aquaculture &

aquarium collection
• Provide alternative livelihoods

Marine Protected Areas

• Develop, plan, manage & enforce large no-take
MPAs
• Include resistant & resilient corals
• Demonstrate $$ benefits e.g. tourism
• Involve communities & local government

It is for the children -
danke

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Status and Trends

Impacts of Climate Change

Biodiversity Extremely high biodiversity

Food & Shelter Millions of people depend on them

Economic Base 100 countries with reefs

Threatened Degrading fast (near people)

Solutions Conserve biodiversity in habitats -

• 30% critical state – loss in 10 to 20 years*

• 30% threatened state – loss in 20 to 40 years*

• 30% remaining healthy

* unless we act soon

• 27% at high risk of loss

• 31% at medium risk of loss

• 42% at low risk of loss

estimates based on some data

• 16% lost in 1998 big bleaching event

• 14% critical state – loss in 10 to 20 years*

• 18% threatened state – loss in 20 to 40 years*

• 41% remaining healthy

(Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2000)

• 19% critical state – loss in 10 to 20 years*

• 21% threatened state – loss in 20 to 40

• 40% remaining healthy

(Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2004)

year Reefs Reefs Reefs Reefs

• Reefs lost x2 from 10% to 20%

• BUT all reefs threatened by climate

• Red Sea - healthy

• Australia – OK & well managed;

• Pacific – generally healthy, esp remote reefs

• possibly lost 80% of coral & & &

• pollution, over-fishing, coral disease &

• Severe economic losses

• Rising levels of CO2 – dissolved in

• Diseases, Plagues and Invasives – all

• Most severe bleaching year

• Sediments - from poor land use,

• Development on coasts – dredging, land

Rising poverty & growing populations – all put

Low Political Will –solutions require strong political

Assist Developing Countries (esp SIDS) to:

Multilateral Environment Agreements

Integrated Coastal Management

• Make reef fisheries sustainable & protect

• Develop sustainable aquaculture &

• Provide alternative livelihoods

Marine Protected Areas

Assist Developing Countries to:

• Include resistant & resilient corals

• Demonstrate $$ benefits e.g. tourism

• Involve communities & local government

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