Meteorology Today: An Introduction to Weather, Climate, and the Environment, 11e

C. Donald Ahrens

Weather Forecasting

CHAPTER 13
 Weather Observations
• Forecasters have access to
– Maps and charts
– Soundings
– Visible and infrared satellite images
– Doppler radar
– Atmospheric models
• Forecast funnel: a series of steps used to
forecast weather events
 Surface and Upper-Air Data
• Surface weather observing stations
– More than 10,000 land-based stations
– Hundreds of ship and buoy stations
– Airports collect data on an hourly basis
– Automated Surface Observing Systems
(ASOS) provide continuous data
• Upper-level stations
– Radiosondes collect data twice a day
– Aircraft collect data during flights
 Satellite Products
• Visible, enhanced infrared, and water
vapor images
– Many from inaccessible regions
• Other information: lightning, sea surface
temperature, and smoke from forest fires
 Doppler Radar
• A Doppler radar network covers nearly all
of the 48 contiguous United States
• Provides round-the-clock information on
rain, snow, sleet, and hail
• Provides warnings of destructive
windstorms and tornadoes
 Acquisition of
Weather Information
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
– Is responsible for the international exchange
of weather data
– Certifies weather stations’ observation
procedures
• Worldwide weather information is
transmitted to government meteorological
centers, e.g., the National Center for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
 Weather Forecasting Tools
• The National Weather Service (NWS)
uses the Advanced Weather Interactive
Processing System (AWIPS)
• AWIPS II was adopted in 2013
– Has data communications, storage,
processing, and display capabilities
– Integrates information into the Doppler
network
– Contains data processing algorithms
Forecasting Tools—Meteograms,
Soundings, and Thickness Charts
• Meteograms show changing weather
variables over time at a station
• Soundings: 2-D vertical profiles of
temperature, dew point, and winds
– Helpful for short-range mesoscale forecasts
– Aid in predicting fog, air pollution alerts, and
the downwind mixing of strong winds
• Thickness charts assist in analyzing
temperatures at different altitudes
 Time Range of Forecasts
• Very short-range (nowcast): up to 6 hrs
– Watch: hazardous weather is likely
– Warning: hazardous weather is imminent or
occurring
• Short-range: extend from 12 hrs to a few
days
• Medium-range: extend from 3 to 8 days
• Long-range: extend beyond 8 days
• Seasonal outlooks: three-month periods
 Forecasting Techniques—
Types of Forecasts
• Persistence: current weather will persist
• Steady-state (trend): trends will continue
• Analog method: looking for familiar trends
• Statistical: based on computer model
outcome
• Probability: based on past events or
proportions
 Forecasting Techniques—
Types of Forecasts
• Weather type: categorize weather into
types
• Climatological: based on the area’s
climate
 Numerical Weather Prediction
• Routine forecasting of weather by
computers using equations
• Atmospheric models: mathematical
equations are applied to describe changes
in the atmosphere with time
• Data assimilation: integrating data into
models
• Prog (prognostic chart) displays the
atmosphere at a specified future time
Why Forecasts Go Awry and Steps
to Improve Them
• Shortcomings
– Computer models have inherent flaws
– Models are not global in coverage
– Observations are sparse in certain regions
– Large spaces between grid points
– Surface weather is not interpreted correctly
– Small unpredictable fluctuations called chaos
• Efforts to improve short- and medium-
forecasts includes ensemble forecasting
 Accuracy and Skill
In Forecasting
• Forecasts of the NWS
– Between 12-24 hours are quite accurate
– Between 2-5 days are fairly good
– Beyond 7 days are not very accurate
• Criteria for a forecast to show skill
– Better than one based on persistence
– More than just a reflection of climatology
• Global Circulation Models (GCMs) do a
good job of predicting large-scale behavior
 Predicting the Weather
From Local Signs
• Theophrastus’ Book of Signs (3000 B.C.)
was used in weather forecasting for 2000
years
– Based on foretelling weather using natural
signs
– “A halo around the moon portends rain”
• Weather predictions can be made by
observing the sky (Table 13.3)
 Weather Forecasting
Using Surface Charts
• The best forecasting models include
multiple layers of the atmosphere
• Forecasters need a strong sense of
surface features to help with progs
• Past weather maps can be used to
determine the future movement of weather
systems (as in Figure 13.14)
 Determining the Movement of
Weather Systems—Rules of Thumb
• Mid-latitude cyclonic storms and fronts
move in the same direction and speed as
for the past 6 hours
• Low-pressure areas move in a direction
that parallels isobars of warm air
 Determining the Movement of
Weather Systems—Rules of Thumb
• Lows move toward the greatest pressure
drop
• Highs move toward the greatest pressure
rise
• Surface pressure systems move in the
same direction as the wind at 5,500 m
 The Importance of
Pressure Changes
• Isallobars: lines of equal pressure change
on weather maps
– Indicate regions of falling or rising pressure
• Pressure tendencies help us predict the
movement of highs and lows
– A large pressure gradient indicates strong
winds
– A drop in pressure indicates weakening—a
rise in pressure indicates strengthening
 A Forecast for Six Cities
• In the following slides, weather forecasts
are projected for six cities, using the
following assumptions
– Pressure systems and fronts move at a
constant rate
– The direction of movement is the same
 Weather Forecast for
Augusta, Georgia
• See Figure 13.17
– From text: “Clear and cold this morning with
moderating temperatures by afternoon.
Increasing high clouds with skies becoming
overcast by evening. Cloudy and not nearly
as cold tonight and tomorrow morning. Winds
will be light and out of the south or southeast.
Barometric pressure will fall slowly.”
• Fog? Fog can result if moist air is chilled
below the dew point
 Rain or Snow for
Washington, D.C.?
• See Figures 13.14 and 13.17
– From text: “Increasing clouds today and
continued cold. Snow beginning by early
Wednesday morning, possibly changing to
rain. Winds will be out of the southeast.
Pressures will fall.”
• Sleet? Sleet can form as moist ocean air
rises up over a snow layer and rain
refreezes near the ground
 Big Snowstorm for Chicago
• See Figures 13.14 and 13.17
– From text: “Cloudy and cold with light snow
beginning by noon, becoming heavy by
evening and ending by Wednesday morning.
Total accumulations will range between 6 and
10 inches… Barometric pressure will fall
sharply today and rise tomorrow.”
• 13 inches of snow? Due to an occluded
system
 Mixed Bag of
Weather for Memphis
• See Figures 13.14 and 13.17
– From text: “…light rain, low clouds, and fog…
partly cloudy and warmer by late this
afternoon. Clouds increasing with possible
showers… and turning colder. Winds
southeasterly this morning… and shifting to
northwesterly tonight. Pressures falling this
morning… rising after midnight”.
• Dense fog? Due to light winds and little
mixing
 Cold Wave for Dallas
• See Figures 13.14 and 13.17
– From text: “… possibility of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Clearing and
turning much colder tonight and tomorrow.
Winds will be southwesterly today, …gusty
north or northwesterly this afternoon and
tonight. Pressure falling this morning, then
rising later today.”
• Clouds? Due to moist Gulf air rising
northward up and over cold surface air
 Clear but Cold for Denver
• See Figure 13.17
– From text: “Clear and cold through tomorrow.
Northerly winds today becoming light and
variable by tonight. Low temperatures
tomorrow morning will be below zero.
Barometric pressure will continue to rise.”
• Temperature not below freezing? Due to
downslope winds which mixed the air
 A Meteorologist
Makes a Prediction
• Forecast information for San Francisco:
– Surface map shows there are no weather
fronts approaching the West Coast and there
is a region of low pressure at 1100 km (Figure
13.19)
– Additional information comes from the 500-mb
chart: 5640 m height line, the presence of an
omega high, and the deepening of the
longwave trough (Figure 13.20)
 The Models Provide Assistance
• Refer to Figure 13.21
– Models help provide the basis for the 24-hr
forecast for the positions of shortwaves,
upper-level pressure systems, and flow aloft
– Positions of trough and shortwaves differ only
slightly in models A, B, and C
• San Francisco forecast: “Increasing
cloudiness Sunday night, with rain
beginning Monday morning and continuing
through Monday afternoon.”
 A Valid Forecast
• A valid forecast for San Francisco (Figures
13.22 and 13.23)
– On Monday maps show what progs predicted
– Surface low has moved east and developed
into a trough west of CA
– Thick middle clouds, southerly winds and
pressure indicate rain
– Comparing model output to actual data is
beneficial for determining model usefulness
 Satellite and
Upper-Air Assistance
• Satellite assistance for San Francisco
(Figures 13.24 and 13.25)
– Comma clouds indicate that a low-pressure
area is developing into a mid-latitude cyclone
– Jet stream over Northern CA suggests
weather will move into CA; strong divergence
aloft will deepen the storm
– Satellite and Doppler images indicate rain will
arrive Monday afternoon
 A Day of Rain and Wind
• Rain and wind for San Francisco, CA
(Figures 13.26, 13.27, and 13.28)
– By Monday afternoon Doppler radar indicates
rain in northern and central CA
– Mid-latitude cyclone has intensified during the
day; pressure drop of ~11 mb; comma clouds
– By Tuesday morning a front with heavy clouds
stretches from Idaho into southern CA
 Questions for Discussion
• Suppose the chance for a “White
Christmas” at your home is 10 percent.
Last Christmas was a white one. If for next
year you forecast a “nonwhite” Christmas,
will you have shown any skill if your
forecast turns out to be correct? Explain.
 Questions for Discussion
• Explain how the phrase “sensitive
dependence on initial conditions” relates to
the final outcome of a computer-based
weather forecast.