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    PMM Doc 7

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    satex
    The document discusses different forecasting techniques including qualitative, quantitative, econometric, and judgmental methods. It also defines demand forecasting and forecasting bias. It provides steps to determine forecasting for single data using calculation of tables, resultants, and forecasting formulas to estimate future production values.

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    PMM Doc 7

    Uploaded by

    satex
    16 views12 pages
    The document discusses different forecasting techniques including qualitative, quantitative, econometric, and judgmental methods. It also defines demand forecasting and forecasting bias. It provides steps to determine forecasting for single data using calculation of tables, resultants, and forecasting formulas to estimate future production values.

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    The document discusses different forecasting techniques including qualitative, quantitative, econometric, and judgmental methods. It also defines demand forecasting and forecasting bias. It provides steps to determine forecasting for single data using calculation of tables, resultants, and forecasting formulas to estimate future production values.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    16 views12 pages

    PMM Doc 7

    Uploaded by

    satex
    The document discusses different forecasting techniques including qualitative, quantitative, econometric, and judgmental methods. It also defines demand forecasting and forecasting bias. It provides steps to determine forecasting for single data using calculation of tables, resultants, and forecasting formulas to estimate future production values.

    Copyright:

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    FORECASTING

    TOOLS &
    TECHNIQUES
    WHAT IS FORECASTING?
     Forecasting is the process of estimating a
    variable, such as the sale of the firm at some
    future date.
    VARIOUS FORECASTING
    TECHNIQUES:
     Qualitative forecasting techniques are
    subjective, based on the opinion and
    judgment of consumers, experts;
     Quantitative forecasting models are used to
    forecast future data as a function of past
    data; they are appropriate when past data
    are available.
     Econometric forecasting try to identify the
    underlying factors that might influence the
    variable that is being forecast

     Judgmental forecasting methods


    incorporate intuitive judgments, opinions
    and subjective probability estimates such as
    opinion poll, consumer survey etc.
    WHAT IS DEMAND FORECASTING
    ?
    Demand forecasting is the activity
    of estimating the quantity of a product or
    service that consumers will purchase. 
    WHAT IS FORECASTING BIAS ?
    A forecast bias occurs when there are
    consistent differences between actual
    outcomes and previously generated forecasts
    of those quantities;
    HOW TO DETERMINE
    FORECASTING FOR SINGLE DATA ?
    a)Calculating the table values:
    Step 1:
    Assume the years as ‘X’ .

    Step 2:
    Assume the given data’s as ‘y’.

    Step 3:
    Determine the deviation from the middle year
    ‘X’ & assume the value as ‘x’.
    Step 4 :
    Determine the square values of ‘x’ .

    Step 5 :

    Multiply the values of ‘x’ & ‘y’.


    B)CALCULATION OF
    RESULTANTS
    Step 1:
    Calculate the total number of years as ‘N’.

    Step 2:
    Calculate the summation of ‘y’

    Step 3:
    Calculate the summation of ‘x’.

    Step 4:
    Calculate the summation of ‘x2’
    Step 5 :
    Calculate the summation of ‘xy’.
    C)FINAL STEPS OR FORECASTING FORMULAS :
    Step 1:

    Forecasting formula : Yc = a + bx

    Step 2:

    Calculation of ‘a’ where’s a= ∑y


    N
    Step 3:

    Calculation of ‘b’ where’s b= ∑xy


    ∑x2
    PROBLEM
    Below are the given production(in metric
    tones) of a production company:

    Y1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004


    P 80 90 92 83 94 99 92

     Estimate/Forecast the likely production of


    2007.

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