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    Epidemiologic Transition

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    kaykhine
    This document discusses Abdel Omran's theory of the epidemiologic transition, which describes the long-term shift in disease patterns that occurs as populations modernize. It notes that mortality rates and causes of death change, with pandemics of infectious disease being replaced by non-communicable diseases. The transition is influenced by factors like socioeconomic status and public health interventions.

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    Epidemiologic Transition

    Uploaded by

    kaykhine
    119 views47 pages
    This document discusses Abdel Omran's theory of the epidemiologic transition, which describes the long-term shift in disease patterns that occurs as populations modernize. It notes that mortality rates and causes of death change, with pandemics of infectious disease being replaced by non-communicable diseases. The transition is influenced by factors like socioeconomic status and public health interventions.

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    This document discusses Abdel Omran's theory of the epidemiologic transition, which describes the long-term shift in disease patterns that occurs as populations modernize. It notes that mortality rates and causes of death change, with pandemics of infectious disease being replaced by non-communicable diseases. The transition is influenced by factors like socioeconomic status and public health interventions.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    119 views47 pages

    Epidemiologic Transition

    Uploaded by

    kaykhine
    This document discusses Abdel Omran's theory of the epidemiologic transition, which describes the long-term shift in disease patterns that occurs as populations modernize. It notes that mortality rates and causes of death change, with pandemics of infectious disease being replaced by non-communicable diseases. The transition is influenced by factors like socioeconomic status and public health interventions.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    of 47

    Epidemiologic Transition:

    Changes of fertility and mortality


    with modernization
    Abdel Omran. The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of
    the epidemiology of population change. Milbank
    Quarterly. 1971;49:509-538

    http://www.who.int/docstore/bulletin/pdf/2001/issue2/vol.79no.2.1
    59-170.pdf
    Lecture

    ■ Epidemiologic Transition
    ■ Geographic Studies, what do they tell us?
    Abdel Omran
    Evolution of Disease

    Charles Darwin
    Evolution of Species
    Epidemiology

     Psychiatric Epidemiologists
     Diabetes Epidemiology
     Cardiovascular Epidemiology
     Cancer Epidemiology
     Infectious Disease Epidemiology
    Instead at looking at individual
    diseases, we need to look at the
    patterns of diseases
    Mortality is the fundamental
    factor in the dynamics of
    population growth and causes of
    death.

    Mortality has no fixed upper limits.


    Thus if fertility approached its
    upper maximum, depopulation
    would still occur.
    During the epidemiologic
    transition, a long-term shift
    occurs in mortality and disease
    patterns whereby pandemics of
    infection are replaced by
    degenerative and man-made
    diseases...
    Age of Pestilence and Famine

    Characterized by high mortality rates,


    wide swings in the mortality rate,
    little population growth and very
    low life expectancy
    Age of Receding Pandemics

    Epidemics become less frequent,


    infectious diseases in general
    become less frequent, a slow rise in
    degenerative diseases begin to
    appear
    The shifts in disease patterns in
    the 19th century were primarily
    related to changing SES.
    With the 20th Century more
    related with disease control
    activities independent of SES:
    e.g. Mexico, China
    Epidemiologic Transition in
    Developing and Developed
    Countries
    80
    70
    60
    50
    Developing
    40
    Developed
    30
    20
    10
    0
    1945 1960 1980 1995
    14 years

    35 years
    Increasing Life Expectancy and
    Causes of Death
    100

    Other
    80

    60
    Violence
    40
    CHD

    20 CA
    Infection
    0
    40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76

    Population Life Expectancy


    Infectious Diseases
    Mortality Rates

    NCD

    Epidemiologic Transition
    Death Rates for TB in England
    and Wales
    4500
    4000
    3500
    3000
    2500
    2000
    1500
    1000
    500
    0
    1840 1855 1875 1895 1915 1935 1948 1958 1968
    Death Rates for TB in England
    and Wales
    4500
    4000 TB Bacillus
    3500 Identified
    3000
    2500
    2000
    Chemotherapy
    1500
    BCG Vaccination
    1000
    500
    0
    1840 1855 1875 1895 1915 1935 1948 1958 1968
    Death Rates for Measles in
    Children in England and Wales
    1400
    1200

    1000
    800
    600
    400

    200
    0
    1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
    Death Rates for Measles in
    Children in England and Wales
    1400
    1200

    1000
    800
    600
    400 Immunization begun

    200
    0
    1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
    NIDDM CHD
    Trauma
    Mortality Rates

    CA

    Epidemiologic Transition
    Importance of
    Geographic Patterns
    Incidence of Stomach CA
    Males
    Japan
    Columbia
    Iceland
    Finland
    UK
    US NW
    US White
    India
    Nigeria

    0 20 40 60 80 100
    Breast Cancer Incidence
    Females
    US Whites

    US NW

    UK

    Poland

    Jamaica

    Singapore

    Brazil

    Nigeria

    Japan

    0 5 10 15 20 25 30
    CHD Death Rates
    Males, aged 45-54
    Finland
    Scotland
    UK
    US
    Bulgaria
    Italy
    Egypt
    Japan
    Guatamala
    Thailand

    0 500 1000 1500


    Cirrhosis Death Rates,
    Males, aged 45-54
    France

    Italy

    Japan

    US

    Hong Kong

    Scotland

    UK

    0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
    High Incidence of NCDs in
    Developing Countries
    ✽ Possible Infectious Etiology
    Macronodular Cirrhosis
    Hepatocellular Carcinoma
    Rheumatic Heart Disease
    Iron deficiency anemia
    ✽ Related to Nutrition Deficiency
    Endemic Goiter
    Malnutrition Related Diabetes.
    High Incidence of NCDs in Developed Countries
    Cardiovascular
    CHD
    Deep Vein Thrombosis
    Respiratory
    Emphysema
    Lung CA
    Female Genital
    Endometriosis
    Endometrial CA
    Breast
    Breast CA
    Fibrocystic Disease
    Male Genital
    Prostrate CA
    Metabolic
    NIDDM
    Back to Nature

     Improved Physical activity


     A Healthier Diet, less saturated
    fats, more fiber
     Less Stress
    Transition

     Nomads 45 yrs
     Farmers 60 yrs
     Urban 70 yrs
    1960
    Urban Rural

    rural urban

    USA Developing
    Countries
    2006
    Urban Rural

    urban
    rural

    USA Developing
    Countries
    Causes of Death
    Developed Developing
    ■ Age 15-44 Age 15-44
    Accidents Accidents
    CA CHD
    CHD CA
    ■ Age 45-54 Age 45-54
    CHD CHD
    CA CA
    Accidents Accidents

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