TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS

MATH 30
Probability and Statistics
 OBJECTIVES

At the end of the lesson the students are expected to:

• Define a statistical hypothesis
• Create a Hypothesis from a given problem
• Provide an alternative from the given hypothesis
• Determine the errors in testing hypothesis
• Identify the procedures for testing statistical hypothesis
• Determine the appropriate test for testing hypothesis
• Determine the appropriate level of significance
• Interpret results from computed values
 REVIEW

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
Single Sample (Means)
Known Variance /Large Sample(n>30)
s s
x  z    x  z
2 n 2 n
Large Sample (n>30): s s
s s
x  z    x  z
2 n 2 n
Small Sample (n<30 and s unknown)
s s
v  n 1 x  t    x  t
2 n 2 n
 REVIEW
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
Two Sample (Difference Between Two Means)
Known Variance /Large Sample(n>30)
s 12 s 22 s 12 s 22
( x1  x2 )  z    1  2  ( x1  x2 )  z  
2 n1 n2 2 n1 n2
Small Sample (Equal Variances)
v  n1  n2  2 1 1 1 1
( x1  x2 )  t s p   1  2  ( x1  x2 )  t s p 
2 n1 n2 2 n1 n2
(n1  1) s1  (n2  1) s2
2 2
sp 
n1  n2  2
2
Small Sample (Unequal Variances)  s12 s2 2 
 
n  n 
v  2
1 2 
2
s12 s22 s12 s22  s12   s2 2 
( x1  x2 )  t   1  2  ( x1  x2 )  t   
n 
 
n 

2 n1 n2 2 n1 n2  1   2 
n1  1 n2  1
 REVIEW
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
Two Sample
Paired Observation
sd sd
v  n 1 d  t  d  d  t
2 n 2 n
Proportion
Single Proportion
pˆ qˆ pˆ qˆ
pˆ  z   p  pˆ  z
2 n 2 n
Difference of Two Proportions
pˆ1qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 pˆ1qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2
( pˆ1  pˆ 2 )  z   p  ( pˆ1  pˆ 2 )  z 
2 n1 n2 2 n1 n2
 REVIEW
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
Two Sample
Paired Observation
sd sd
v  n 1 d  t  d  d  t
2 n 2 n
Proportion
Single Proportion
pˆ qˆ pˆ qˆ
pˆ  z   p  pˆ  z
2 n 2 n
Difference of Two Proportions
pˆ1qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 pˆ1qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2
( pˆ1  pˆ 2 )  z   p  ( pˆ1  pˆ 2 )  z 
2 n1 n2 2 n1 n2
 REVIEW

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
Variances
(n  1) s 2 (n  1) s 2
v  n 1 s 2 
 2 2  1
2 2

Ratio of Two Variances

v  n 1 s12
s 22 s2 s12
 2  f
1

f  ( v1 ,v 2 ) s 2 2
( v1 ,v 2 )
s 22
2
 CONCEPTS

• A statistical hypothesis test is a method of making decisions using data,

whether from a controlled experiment or an observational study (not
controlled).

• A statistical hypothesis is an assertion or conjecture concerning one or

more populations.
• assumption/statement concerning one or more populations that may or
may not be true

Results of Hypothesis Testing

• statistically significant if it is unlikely to have occurred by chance alone,
according to a pre-determined threshold probability, the significance level.

• "Critical tests of this kind may be called tests of significance, and when such tests
are available we may discover whether a second sample is or is not significantly
different from the first.“ - Fisher
 Basic Concepts

Types:

1. Null hypothesis (H0)

statement about the value of the population
parameter
must be stated with “equality” condition

2. Alternative Hypothesis (H1)

the statement that holds true if H0 is false
statement of inequality
The probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when
it is true is called the significance level (α).
 Type I and Type II Errors

True state of nature

Decision
H0 is true H0 is false

Reject the H0 Type I error Correct decision

Fail to Reject H0 Correct decision Type II error

Objective: minimize Type I error

 Classical Method of Testing
Procedures in Statistical Testing of Hypothesis

1. Define H0 and H1.

2. Choose the level of significance (α)
3. Establish the critical region.
4. Select the appropriate test statistic
5. Make conclusion.
A) Reject H0 if test statistic has a value within
the critical region
B) otherwise, fail to reject H0.
 Classical Method of Testing

Defining Hypothesis:
A. Determine the Claim in the problem.
B. What parameter does the claim wants to check?
C. Does the claim include equality:

Keywords:
GREATER ( > ) LESS THAN ( < ) NOT EQUAL (≠)
Higher Lower Changed
Better Worsened Different
More Less Varied
Increased Decreased

GREATER THAN LESS THAN EQUAL (=)

OR EQUAL (>) OR EQUAL ( < )
At least At most the same
The same or better less or the same
 Classical Method of Testing

Defining Hypothesis:

D. If the claim contains equality, it is the null hypothesis:

H0 : q  q

If the claim does not include equality, it is the

alternative hypothesis.

H1 : q > q ; q  q ; q ≠ q

E. Negate or Contradict the hypothesis.

 Classical Method of Testing

Level of Significance:

• the probability of obtaining a type I error

• the region where the population parameter does not

fall in the confidence interval

Common Values of Statistical Significance (  )

0.01 Highly Significant

0.05 Statistically Significant
0.10 Significant
 Critical Region

Acceptance
region

1-α

z / 2 μ z / 2

Critical values

Rejection regions
 Classical Method of Testing

Critical Region:
• Region where there is no sufficient proof to accept the
null hypothesis, hence it is rejected and the alternative
is accepted.

k=0.2946
k00

1 0 0 

H1:  < o H1:  > o

H1:  ≠ o
 TEST STATISTICS
TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS
Single Sample (Means)
Known Variance /Large Sample(n>30)

x H1:  > o

z z > z
s H1:   o z < z
n H1:  ≠ o z > z/2 and z < z/2
Small Sample (n<30 and s unknown)
x v  n 1
t H1:  > o t > t
s H1:   o t < t
n
Single Proportion H1:  ≠ o t > t/2 and t < t/2

pˆ  p
z H1:p > po z > z
pˆ qˆ H1: p  po z < z
H1: p ≠ po z > z/2 and z < z/2
n
 EXAMPLES
Single Mean : Large Sample

In a labor management discussion it was asserted that it

takes the average worker 41.3 mins to get to work.
Usually, the travel time varies by 8.2 mins. A survey of
60 workers took on the average 39.7 mins to travel.
Using α = 0.01, determine if this agrees with the assertion.
 EXAMPLES

• # 5 page 300 Single Mean, Large Sample

• It is claimed that an automobile is driven on the average more
than 20 000 km per year. To test this claim, a random sample
of 100 automobile owners are asked to keep a record of the
kilometers they travel. Would you agree with this claim if the
random sample showed an average of 23 500 km and a
standard deviation of 3 900 km? Use 0.01 level of significance.
 EXAMPLES

# 4 page 300 Single Mean, Large Sample

The average height of females in the freshman of a certain
college has been 162.5 centimeters with a standard deviation
of 6.9 centimeters. Is there a reason to believe that there has
been a change in the average height if a random sample of 50
females in the present freshman class has an average height
of 165.2 cm. Use 0.05 level of significance.
 EXAMPLES
Single Mean : Small Sample

A random sample of 8 cigarettes of a certain brand has an

average nicotine content of 4.2 mg and a standard
deviation of 1.4 mg. Is this in line with the manufacturer’s
claim that the average nicotine content is less than
3.5 mg? Assume normality and α = 0.05
 EXAMPLES

# 7 page 300 Single Mean, Small Sample

• Test the hypothesis that the average content of containers of
a particular lubricant is 10 L if the contents of a particular
lubricant is 8 containers are 10.2, 9.7, 10.1, 9.8, 9.9, 10.4, 10.3
and 9.8 L. Use a 0.01 level of significance and assume that the
contents is normal.
 EXAMPLES

#10 page 300 Single Mean, Small Sample

Last year the employees of the city sanitation department
donated an average of $10.00 to the volunteer rescue squad.
Test the hypothesis at the 0.01 level of significance that the
average contribution this year is still $10.00 if a random
sample of 12 employees showed an average donation of
$10.90 with a standard deviation of $1.75. Assume that the
donations are normally distributed.
 Proportion
1. Upon testing 100 resistors manufactured by Company A, it is
found that 12 fail to meet the tolerance specifications. Test
the claim of the manufacturer at 0.02 level of significance
that the proportion of resistors failing to meet the tolerance
level is less than 20%. Assuming the distribution of resistors
failing to meet the tolerance is normally distributed.
2. Careful inspection of 70 precast concrete supports to be
used in a construction project revealed 28 with hairline
cracks. Test that the sampled concrete comes from a normal
population with cracks at 25% of the time. Use 0.02 level of
significance.
 An e-commerce research company claims that 60% or more
graduate students have bought merchandise on-line. A
consumer group is suspicious of the claim and thinks that the
proportion is lower than 60%. A random sample of 80
graduate students show that only 22 students have ever
done so. Is there enough evidence to show that the true
proportion is lower than 60%? Conduct the test at 10% Type
I error rate, and use the p-value and rejection region
approaches.
a. Is the type of test a two-tailed test or one-tailed test?
79%

A. One-tailed test
B. Two tailed test
21%

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 An e-commerce research company claims that 60% or more
graduate students have bought merchandise on-line. A
consumer group is suspicious of the claim and thinks that the
proportion is lower than 60%. A random sample of 80
graduate students show that only 22 students have ever
done so. Is there enough evidence to show that the true
proportion is lower than 60%? Conduct the test at 10% Type
I error rate, and use the p-value and rejection region
approaches.
a. Which of the following is the correct alternative
hypotheses.
A. H1: p < 0.6 43% 43%

B. H1: p= 0.6
C. H1: p > 0.6 7% 7%

D. None of the above 6

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 An e-commerce research company claims that 60% or more
graduate students have bought merchandise on-line. A
consumer group is suspicious of the claim and thinks that the
proportion is lower than 60%. A random sample of 80 graduate
students show that only 22 students have ever done so. Is there
enough evidence to show that the true proportion is lower than
60%? Conduct the test at 10% Type I error rate, and use the p-
value and rejection region approaches.
a. What is the value of p-hat and q-hat

53%
47%
A. p-hat =22 and q-hat= 58
B. p-hat =0.22 and q-hat=
0.58
C. p-hat =0.025 and q-hat=
0.975 0% 0%
D. p-hat =0.275 and q-hat=
75

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 An e-commerce research company claims that 60% or more
graduate students have bought merchandise on-line. A
consumer group is suspicious of the claim and thinks that the
proportion is lower than 60%. A random sample of 80 graduate
students show that only 22 students have ever done so. Is there
enough evidence to show that the true proportion is lower than
60%? Conduct the test at 10% Type I error rate, and use the p-
value and rejection region approaches.
a. What is the z-value at alpha?
A. 1.28
B. -1.28 57%
C. 3.28
D. -3.28
29%

14%

0%
 TEST STATISTICS
TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS
Two Means (Difference Between Two Means)
Known Variance /Large Sample(n>30)
x1  x2  d 0 H1:  1  > do z > z
z H1:  1   do z < z
s 12  s 2
2 H1:  1  ≠ do z > z/2 and z < z/2
n1 n2
Small Sample (n<30 and s1  s and unknown)
x1  x2  d 0 (n1  1) s1  (n2  1) s2
2 2
H1:  1  > do t > t
t sp  H1:  1   do t < t
n1  n2  2
sp 1  1 H1:  1  ≠ do t > t/2 and t < t/2
n1 n2 v  n1  n2 1
Small Sample (n<30 and s1 ≠ s and unknown)
2 H1:  1  > do t > t
x1  x2  d 0  s12 s2 2 
  H1:  1   do
t n  n 
t < t
v  2
2 
s12

s22 1
2
H1:  1  ≠ do t > t/2 and t < t/2
n1 n2  s12   s2 2 
   
n  n 
 1   2 
n1  1 n2  1
 EXAMPLES
A random sample of size n1 = 25 taken from a normal
population with a standard deviation of σ1 = 5 has a
mean x1 = 80. A second random sample of size n2=36
taken from a different normal population with a
standard deviation σ2= 3, has a mean x2 = 75. Using
α = .05, test the hypothesis that 1   2 .
 EXAMPLES

#12 page 330 Difference of Two Means, Large Sample

A random sample of size n1 = 25, taken from a normal population
with a standard deviation of 1= 5.2, has a mean = 81. A
second random sample size n2 = 36, taken from different a
normal population with a standard deviation of 2= 3.4, has a
mean = 76. Test the hypothesis that against the alternative .
Use 0.05 level of significance.
 EXAMPLES

#13 page 330 Difference of Two Means, Large Sample

A manufacturer claims that the average tensile strength of
thread A exceeds the average tensile strength of thread B by
at least 12 kg. To test his claim, 50 pieces of each type of
thread had an average tensile strength of 86.7 kg with a
standard deviation of 6.28 kg, while type B thread had an
average tensile strength of 77.8 kg with a standard deviation
of 5.61 kg. Test the manufacturer’s claim using a 0.05 level of
significance.
 EXAMPLES

#15 page 331 Difference of two means, Small Sample Equal Variances
• A study is made to see if increasing the substrate
concentration has an appreciable effect on the velocity of the
chemical reaction. With a substrate concentration of 1.5
moles per liter, the reaction was run 15 times with an average
velocity of 7.5 micromoles per 30 minutes with a standard
deviation 1.5. With a substrate concentration of 2.0 moles
per liter, 12 runs were made, yielding an average velocity of
8.8 micromoles per 30 minutes and a sample standard
deviation of 1.2. Is there a reason to believe that this increase
in substrate concentration causes an increase in the mean
velocity by more than 0.5 micromole per 30 minutes? Use a
0.01 level of significance and assume the population to be
approximately normally distributed with equal variances.
 EXAMPLES

#17 page 331 Difference of two means, Small Sample Equal Variances
To find out whether a new serum will arrest leukemia, 9 mice,
which have all reached an advanced stage of the disease are
selected. Five mice receive the treatment and 4 do not. The
survival times, in years, from the time the experiment
commenced are as follows:
Treatment 2.1 5.3 1.4 4.6 0.9
No Treatment 1.9 0.5 2.8 3.1
Test the hypothesis that the average running time of films
produced by company 2 exceeds the average running time of
films produced by company 1 by 10 minutes against the one
sided alternative that the difference is more than 10 minutes.
Use a 0.1 level of significance and assume the distributions of
times to be approximately normal with unequal variances.
 EXAMPLES

#18 page 331 Difference of two means, Small Sample Unequal Variances
A large automobile manufacturing company is trying to decide
whether to purchase brand A or brand B tires for its new
models. To help arrive at a decision an experiment is
conducted using 12 of each brand. The tires are run until they
wear out. The results are:
Brand A : x1 = 37 900 km s1 = 5100 km
Brand B : x2 = 39 800 km s1 = 5900 km
Test the hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significance that there is
no difference in the 2 brands of tires. Assume the populations
to be approximately normally distributed.
 TEST STATISTICS
TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS
Two Sample – Paired Observation
d  d
t H1: d > o t > t
sd H1:  d o t < t
H1:  d≠ o t > t/2 and t< t/2
n
Single Proportion
pˆ  p
z H1:p > po z > z
pˆ qˆ H1: p < po z < z
H1: p ≠ po z > z/2 and z < z/2
n
Difference of Proportions
( pˆ 1  pˆ 2 )  d 0
z H1:p1 -p2 > po z > z
pˆ 1qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ 2 H1: p1 -p2 > po z < z
 H1: p1 -p2 ≠ do z > z/2 and z < z/2
n1 n2
 EXAMPLES
#27 page 333 Paired Observations
According to the article “Practice and Fatigue Effects on the
Programming of a Coincident Timing Response,” published in the
Journal of Human Movement Studies in 1976, practice under
fatigued conditions distorts mechanisms which govern
performance. An experiment was conducted using 15 college males
who were trained to make a continuous horizontal right-to-left arm
movement from a micro-switch to a barrier, knocking over the
barrier coincident with the arrival of a clock sweephand to the 6
o’clock position. The absolute value of the difference between the
time, in milliseconds, that it took to knock over the barrier and the
tie for the sweephand to reach the 6 o’clock position (500 msec)
was recorded. Each participant performed the task five times under
pre fatigue and post fatigue conditions, and the sums of the
absolute differences for the five performances were recorded as
follows:
 EXAMPLES
#27 page 333 Paired Observations
Cont:
ATD Respondent Number
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
PreFTG 158 92 65 98 33 89 148 58 142 117 74 66 109 57 85
PostFTG 91 59 215 226 223 91 92 177 134 116 153 219 143 164 100

An increase in the mean absolute time differences when the task is

performed under the postfatigue conditions would support the
claim that practice under the fatigued conditions distorts
mechanisms that govern performance. Assuming the populations
to be normally distributed, test this claim at 5% significance.

•
 REVIEW

TEST OF HYPOTHESIS
Variances

(n  1) s 2 H1: s > so
 
2 z > z1
H1: s  so
s2
z < z
H1: s ≠ so z > z1-/2 and z < z/2

Ratio of Two Variances

s 12
2 H1: s1 /s > so t > t
s2 H1: s1 /s  so
f  H1: s1 /s ≠ so
t < t
s21
t > t/2 and t < t/2

s2 2
 EXAMPLES

#5 page 343 Single Sample Test of Variance

A soft-drink dispensing machine is said to be out of control if
the variance of the contents exceeds 1.15 deciliters. If a
random sample of 25 drinks from this machine has a variance
of 2.03 deciliters, does this indicate at the 0.05 level of
significance that the machine is out of control? Assume that
the contents are approximately normally distributed.
 EXAMPLES
#7 page 343 Two sample test concerning Ratio of variances
A study is conducted to compare the length of time between
men and women to assemble a certain product. Past
experience indicates that the distribution of times for both
men and women is approximately normally distributed but
the variance of the times for women is less than that of men.
A random sample of times for 11 men and 14 women
produced the following data:
Men Women
n 11 14
s 6.1 5.3
Test the hypothesis that variances are equal against the
alternative that variances are unequal . Use a 0.02 level of
significance.
 EXAMPLES

#12 page 344 Two Sample Ratio of Variances

The hydrocarbon emissions are known to have decreased dramatically during
the 1980s. A study was conducted to compare the hydrocarbon emissions
at idling speed, in parts per million (ppm), for automobiles of 1980 and
1990. Twenty cars of each year model were randomly selected and their
hydrocarbon emission levels were recorded. The data:
1980 Models
141 359 247 940 882 494 306 210 105 880
200 223 188 940 241 190 300 435 241 380
1990 Models
140 160 20 20 223 60 20 95 360 70
220 400 217 58 235 380 200 175 85 65
Test the hypothesis that against the alternative that . Use a 0.1
level of significance.