Why Do We Need Statistics? - P Values - T-Tests - Anova - Correlation33

Overview
• Why do we need statistics?

• P values
• T-tests
• ANOVA
• Correlation33
Why do we need statistics?
• To enable us to test experimental hypotheses
– H0 = null hypothesis
– H1 = experimental hypothesis
– Null = no difference in brain activation between these

2 conditions
– Exp = there is a difference in brain activation between
these 2 conditions
Alternate and Null
• H1: A = B There is no relationship between A and B Null

• H2: A ≠ B There is a relationship between A and B. Here, there is a
relationship, but we don’t know if it is positive or negative.
• H3: A < B There is a negative relationship between A and B. Here, the

< suggests that the less A is involved, the better B. Alternate
• H4: A > B There is a positive relationship between A and B. Here, the >
suggests that the more B is involved, the better A. Alternate
2 types of statistics
• Descriptive Stats
– e.g., mean and standard deviation (S.D)
• Inferential statistics
– t-tests, ANOVAs and regression
Issues when making inferences
• So how do we know whether the effect
observed in our sample was genuine?
– We don’t
• Instead we use p values to indicate our

level of certainty that our results represent
a genuine effect present in the whole
population
P values
• P values = the probability that the observed
result was obtained by chance
– i.e. when the null hypothesis is true
• α level is set a priori (Usually 0.05)
• If p < α level then we reject the null hypothesis

and accept the experimental hypothesis
– 95% certain that our experimental effect is genuine
• If however, p > α level then we reject the
experimental hypothesis and accept the null
hypothesis
Two types of errors
• Type I error = false positive
– α level of 0.05 means that there is 5% risk

that a type I error will be encountered
• Type II error = false negative

t-tests
• Compare two group means
Hypothetical experiment
Time
Q – does viewing pictures of the Simpson and the Griffin

family activate the same brain regions?
Condition 1 = Simpson family faces

Condition 2 = Griffin family faces
Calculating T
Difference between the means divided by the pooled
standard error of the mean
x1  x 2
t
s x1  x2
2 2
s1 s2
Group 1 Group 2
s x1  x2  
n1 n2
How do we apply this to fMRI
data analysis?
Time
Degrees of freedom
• = number of unconstrained data points
• Which in this case = number of data points
– 1.
• Can use t value and df to find the

associated p value
• Then compare to the α level
Different types of t-test
• 2 sample t tests
– Related = two samples related, i.e. same
people in both conditions
– Independent = two independent samples, i.e.
diff people in 2 conditions
• One sample t tests

– compare the mean of one sample to a given
value
Another approach to group differences
• Analysis Of VAriance (ANOVA)

– Variances not means
• Multiple groups
e.g. Different facial expressions
• H0 = no differences between groups

• H1 = differences between groups
Calculating F
• F = the between group variance divided by
the within group variance
– the model variance/error variance
• for F to be significant the between group

variance should be considerably larger
than the within group variance
What can be concluded from a
significant ANOVA?
• There is a significant difference between

the groups
• NOT where this difference lies
• Finding exactly where the differences lie

requires further statistical analyses
Different types of ANOVA
• One-way ANOVA
– One factor with more than 2 levels
• Factorial ANOVAs
– More than 1 factor
• Mixed design ANOVAs

– Some factors independent, others related
Conclusions
• T-tests assess if two group means differ
significantly
• Can compare two samples or one sample
to a given value
• ANOVAs compare more than two groups
or more complicated scenarios
• They use variances instead of means
Further reading
• Howell. Statistical methods for psychologists
• Howitt and Cramer. An introduction to statistics in psychology
• Huettel. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (especially chapter 12)
Acknowledgements
• MfD Slides 2005 – 2007

PART 2
• Correlation
• Regression
• Relevance to GLM and SPM
Correlation
• Strength and direction of the relationship
between variables
• Scattergrams
Y Y Y
Y Y Y
X X
Positive correlation Negative correlation No correlation

Describe correlation:
•
covariance
A statistic representing the degree to which 2
variables vary together n
– Covariance formula
 ( x  x)( y
i i  y)
cov( x, y )  i 1
n
n
– cf. variance formula  i
( x  x ) 2
S x2  i 1
n
but…
• the absolute value of cov(x,y) is also a function of the
standard deviations of x and y.
Describe correlation: Pearson
correlation coefficient (r)
• Equation cov( x, y)
rxy  s = st dev of sample
sx s y
– r = -1 (max. negative correlation); r = 0 (no constant
relationship); r = 1 (max. positive correlation)
• Limitations:
5
– Sensitive to extreme values, e.g. 2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
– r is an estimate from the sample, but does it

represent the population parameter?
– Relationship not a prediction.
Summary
• Correlation
• Regression
• Relevance to SPM
Regression
• Regression: Prediction of one variable
from knowledge of one or more other
variables.
• Regression v. correlation: Regression
allows you to predict one variable from the
other (not just say if there is an
association).
• Linear regression aims to fit a straight line
to data that for any value of x gives the
best prediction of y.
Best fit line, minimising sum
of squared errors
• Describing the line as in GCSE maths: y = m x + c
• Here, ŷ = bx + a
ŷ = bx + a
– ŷ : predicted value of y
– b: slope of regression line
– a: intercept
ε
= ŷ, predicted
= y i , observed
ε = residual
Residual error (ε): Difference between obtained and predicted values of

y (i.e. y- ŷ).
Best fit line (values of b and a) is the one that minimises the sum of squared
errors (SSerror) (y- ŷ)2
How to minimise SSerror
• Minimise (y- ŷ)2 , which is (y-
bx+a)2
Sums of squared error (SSerror)

• Plotting SSerror for each
possible regression line gives a
parabola.
• Minimum SSerror is at the
bottom of the curve where the
gradient is zero – and this can
found with calculus.
• Take partial derivatives of (y-
Gradient = 0
bx-a)2 and solve for 0 as min SSerror
simultaneous equations, giving: Values of a and b
rs y
b a  y  bx
sx
How good is the model?
• We can calculate the regression line for any data, but how well does it fit
the data?
• Total variance = predicted variance + error variance

sy2 = sŷ2 + ser2
• Also, it can be shown that r2 is the proportion of the variance in y that is
explained by our regression model
r2 = sŷ2 / sy2
• Insert r2 sy2 into sy2 = sŷ2 + ser2 and rearrange to get:
ser2 = sy2 (1 – r2)

• From this we can see that the greater the correlation the smaller the error
variance, so the better our prediction
Is the model significant?
• i.e. do we get a significantly better prediction of y
from our regression equation than by just
predicting the mean?
• F-statistic:
complicated
rearranging
sŷ2 r2 (n - 2)2
F(df ,df ) = =......=
ŷ er
ser2 1 – r2
• And it follows that:
r (n - 2) So all we need to
t(n-2) = know are r and n !
√1 – r2
Summary
• Correlation
• Regression
General Linear Model
• Linear regression is actually a form of the
General Linear Model where the
parameters are b, the slope of the line,
and a, the intercept.
y = bx + a +ε
• A General Linear Model is just any model
that describes the data in terms of a
straight line
One voxel: The GLM
Our aim: Solve equation for β – tells us how much BOLD signal is explained by X
b3
b4
b5
= b6 +
b7
b8
b9
Y = X × b + e
Multiple regression
• Multiple regression is used to determine the effect of a
number of independent variables, x1, x2, x3 etc., on a
single dependent variable, y
• The different x variables are combined in a linear way
and each has its own regression coefficient:
y = b0 + b1x1+ b2x2 +…..+ bnxn + ε
• The a parameters reflect the independent contribution of

each independent variable, x, to the value of the
dependent variable, y.
• i.e. the amount of variance in y that is accounted for by
each x variable after all the other x variables have been
accounted for
SPM
• Linear regression is a GLM that models the effect of one

independent variable, x, on one dependent variable, y
• Multiple Regression models the effect of several

independent variables, x1, x2 etc, on one dependent
variable, y
• Both are types of General Linear Model
• This is what SPM does and will be explained soon…

Summary
• Correlation
• Regression
Thanks!

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Overview

• Why do we need statistics?

– Null = no difference in brain activation between these

• H1: A = B There is no relationship between A and B Null

• H3: A < B There is a negative relationship between A and B. Here, the

• Instead we use p values to indicate our

• α level is set a priori (Usually 0.05)

• If p < α level then we reject the null hypothesis

– α level of 0.05 means that there is 5% risk

• Type II error = false negative

Q – does viewing pictures of the Simpson and the Griffin

Condition 1 = Simpson family faces

• Can use t value and df to find the

• One sample t tests

• Analysis Of VAriance (ANOVA)

• H0 = no differences between groups

• for F to be significant the between group

• There is a significant difference between

• NOT where this difference lies

• Finding exactly where the differences lie

• Mixed design ANOVAs

• Howell. Statistical methods for psychologists

• Howitt and Cramer. An introduction to statistics in psychology

• Huettel. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (especially chapter 12)

• MfD Slides 2005 – 2007

Positive correlation Negative correlation No correlation

– Sensitive to extreme values, e.g. 2

– r is an estimate from the sample, but does it

Residual error (ε): Difference between obtained and predicted values of

Sums of squared error (SSerror)

• Total variance = predicted variance + error variance

• Insert r2 sy2 into sy2 = sŷ2 + ser2 and rearrange to get:

ser2 = sy2 (1 – r2)

y = b0 + b1x1+ b2x2 +…..+ bnxn + ε

• The a parameters reflect the independent contribution of

• Linear regression is a GLM that models the effect of one

• Multiple Regression models the effect of several

• Both are types of General Linear Model

• This is what SPM does and will be explained soon…

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