Energy and Climate Change (ESE-832)

Dr. Warda Ajaz

US Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Energy (USPCAS-E)
National University of Sciences & Technology (NUST)
Email: [email protected] 1
 Course Themes
• Science of Climate Change
• Impacts of Climate Change
• Climate Change Governance
• Energy and Climate Change
• Addressing Climate Change through Energy Sector

2
Impacts of Climate Change
 Impacts of Climate Change
• The changing climate impacts society and ecosystems in a broad variety of ways.

• For example, climate change can alter rainfall, influence crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests
and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply.

• Climate-related impacts are occurring across the globe and over many sectors of our economy, including:

1. Agriculture
2. Coasts
3. Ecosystems
4. Human Health
5. Society
6. Water Resources
7. Energy
 1. Impacts on Agriculture

• Agriculture is an important sector of the

economy.

• Agriculture and fisheries are highly dependent

on the climate.

• Overall, climate change could make it more

difficult to grow crops, raise animals, and
catch fish in the same ways and same places
as we have done in the past.
 1. Impacts on Agriculture (cont.)
a. Impacts on Crops
• Higher CO2 levels can affect crop yields.
• Some laboratory experiments suggest that elevated CO2 levels can increase plant growth. However, other
factors, such as changing temperatures, ozone, and water and nutrient constraints, may counteract these
potential increases in yield.
• For example, if temperature exceeds a crop's optimal level, if sufficient water and nutrients are not
available, yield increases may be reduced or reversed.

• Though rising CO2 can stimulate plant growth, it also reduces the nutritional value of most food crops.
• Rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide reduce the concentrations of protein and essential minerals in
most plant species, including wheat, soybeans, and rice.
• This direct effect of rising CO2 on the nutritional value of crops represents a potential threat to human
health.
 1. Impacts on Agriculture (cont.)
a. Impacts on Crops (cont.)

• More extreme temperature and precipitation can prevent crops from growing.

• Extreme events, especially floods and droughts, can harm crops and reduce yields
• Floods damage the standing crops, leading to financial loss to the framers and food shortage in the country.
• Dealing with drought could become a challenge in areas where rising summer temperatures cause soils to
become drier. Although increased irrigation might be possible in some places, in other places water
supplies may also be reduced, leaving less water available for irrigation when more is needed.
 1. Impacts on Agriculture (cont.)
b. Impacts on livestock

• Changes in climate could affect animals both directly and indirectly

• Heat waves, which are projected to increase under climate change, could directly threaten livestock.
• In addition, over time, heat stress can increase vulnerability to disease, reduce fertility, and reduce milk
production.

• Drought may threaten pasture and feed supplies.

• Drought reduces the amount of quality forage available to grazing livestock.
• For animals that rely on grain, changes in crop production due to drought could also become a problem.
 1. Impacts on Agriculture (cont.)
b. Impacts on livestock (cont.)

• Climate change may increase the prevalence of parasites and diseases that affect livestock.
• The earlier onset of spring and warmer winters could allow some parasites and pathogens to survive more
easily.
• In areas with increased rainfall, moisture-reliant pathogens could thrive.

• Potential changes in veterinary practices, including an increase in the use of parasiticides and other animal
health treatments, are likely to be adopted to maintain livestock health in response to climate-induced changes
in pests, parasites, and microbes.
• This could increase the risk of pesticides entering the food chain or lead to evolution of pesticide
resistance, with subsequent implications for the safety, distribution, and consumption of livestock and
aquaculture products.
 1. Impacts on Agriculture (cont.)
b. Impacts on livestock (cont.)

• Increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) may increase the productivity of pastures, but may also decrease their quality.
• Increases in atmospheric CO2 can increase the productivity of plants on which livestock feed.
• However, the quality of some of the forage found in pasturelands decreases with higher CO2. As a result,
cattle would need to eat more to get the same nutritional benefits.
 1. Impacts on Agriculture (cont.)
c. Impacts on fisheries

• Fisheries already face multiple stresses, including overfishing and water pollution. Climate change may worsen
these stresses. In particular, temperature changes could lead to significant impacts.

• Many steps within an aquatic animal's lifecycle are controlled by temperature and the changing of the seasons
• Many aquatic species can find colder areas of streams and lakes or move north along the coast or in the
ocean.
• Changes in temperature and seasons can affect the timing of reproduction and migration.
• Moving into new areas may put these species into competition with other species over food and other
resources.
 1. Impacts on Agriculture (cont.)
c. Impacts on fisheries (cont.)

• Some marine disease outbreaks have been linked with changing climate.
• Higher water temperatures and higher estuarine salinities have enabled an oyster parasite to spread
farther north along the Atlantic coast.
• Winter warming in the Arctic is contributing to salmon diseases in the Bering Sea and a resulting reduction
in the Yukon Chinook Salmon.
• Finally, warmer temperatures have caused disease outbreaks in coral, eelgrass, and abalone.

• In addition to warming, the world's oceans are gradually becoming more acidic due to increases in atmospheric
carbon dioxide (CO2).
• Increasing acidity could harm shellfish by weakening their shells, which are created by removing calcium
from seawater.
• Acidification also threatens the structures of sensitive ecosystems upon which some fish and shellfish rely.
 1. Impacts on Agriculture (cont.)
• Global Scenario

• These effects of climate change on agriculture and food supply are likely to be experienced globally, though at
different scales.

• However, other stressors such as population growth may magnify the effects of climate change on food security.

• In developing countries, adaptation options like changes in crop-management or ranching practices, or

improvements to irrigation are more limited than in the industrialized nations.
 2. Impacts on Coastal Areas
• Coastal areas are also home to species and
habitats that provide many benefits to society
and natural ecosystems.

• The impacts of climate change are likely to

worsen problems that coastal areas already face.

• Confronting existing challenges that affect man-

made infrastructure and coastal ecosystems,
such as shoreline erosion, coastal flooding, and
water pollution, is already a concern in many
areas.

• Addressing the additional stress of climate

change may require new approaches to
managing land, water, waste, and ecosystems.
 2. Impacts on Coastal Areas (cont.)
Sea Level Rise

• Since 1901, global sea level has risen approximately eight inches.

• In a particular location, the change in sea level that is observed will be affected by the increase in global sea
level as well as land movement up or down. The motion of land can be caused by subsiding coastal lands, oil
and water extraction activities, melting ice, or tectonic movement. The terms "local" or "relative" sea level refer
to both the global change in sea level and the effects of land motion.

• Where the land is sinking, the rate of relative sea level rise is larger than the global rate.

• Mostly because of these differences in land motion, estimates of future relative sea level rise vary for different
regions.

• Climate change models project that global sea level rise will accelerate in the 21st century. Models based on
thermal expansion and ice melt estimate that global sea level is very likely to rise between 1 and 3 feet by the
end of the century.
 2. Impacts on Coastal Areas (cont.)
Sea Level Rise (cont.)

• Growing populations and development along the coasts increase the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to sea
level rise. Development can block the inland migration of wetlands in response of sea level rise, and change the
amount of sediment delivered to coastal areas and accelerate erosion. As a result of these changes, wetlands do
not receive enough sediment to keep up with rising seas, and may no longer function as natural buffers to
flooding

• Rising sea level also increases the salinity of ground water and pushes salt water further upstream. Higher
salinity can make water undrinkable without desalination.

A wetland is a place where the land is covered by water, either

salt, fresh or somewhere in between.

Marshes and ponds, the edge of a lake or ocean, the delta at the
mouth of a river, low-lying areas that frequently flood—all of these
are wetlands.
 2. Impacts on Coastal Areas (cont.)
Impacts of Changes in Storm Surge and Precipitation

• Coastal areas are also vulnerable to increases in the intensity of storm surge and heavy precipitation.

• Storm surges flood low-lying areas, damage property, disrupt transportation systems, destroy habitat, and
threaten human health and safety.

• For example, low-lying areas of New York City, Long Island, and New Jersey were flooded by several feet of
water by the storm surge from Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

• Sea level rise could magnify the impacts of storms by raising the base on which storm surges build.
 2. Impacts on Coastal Areas (cont.)
Impacts of Coastal Water Temperature

• Coastal waters have warmed during the last century, and are very likely to continue to warm in the 21st century,
potentially by as much as 4 to 8°F.

• This warming may lead to big changes in coastal ecosystems, affecting species that inhabit these areas.

• Warming coastal waters cause suitable habitats of temperature-sensitive species to shift poleward. Some areas
have recently seen range shifts in both warm- and cold-water fish and other marine species.
 2. Impacts on Coastal Areas (cont.)
Impacts of Coastal Water Temperature

• Higher sea surface temperatures increase the

risks of coral bleaching, which can lead to
coral death and the loss of critical habitat for
other species.
• when coral reefs become stressed from
increased ocean temperatures, they
expel microorganisms that live within
their tissues and are essential to their
health. This is known as coral bleaching.
• As ocean temperatures warm and
the acidity of the ocean increases,
bleaching and coral die-offs are likely to
become more frequent.
 2. Impacts on Coastal Areas (cont.)
Impacts of Rising Acidity

• The rising concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has increased the absorption of CO2 in the
ocean, which subsequently makes the oceans more acidic. .

• A more acidic ocean adversely affects the health of many marine species, including plankton, mollusks, and
other shellfish.

• In particular, corals can be very sensitive to rising acidity, as it is difficult for them to create and maintain the
skeletal structures needed for their support and protection.
 3. Impacts on Ecosystem
• Climate is an important environmental influence on
ecosystems.

• Changing climate affects ecosystems in a variety of ways.

• Climate change not only affects ecosystems and species

directly, it also interacts with other human stressors such as
development.

• Although some stressors cause only minor impacts when

acting alone, their cumulative impact may lead to dramatic
ecological changes.

• For instance, climate change may exacerbate the stress that

land development places on fragile coastal areas.
 3. Impacts on Ecosystem (cont.)
Changes in the Timing of Seasonal Life Cycle Events

• For many species, the climate where they live or spend part of the year influences key stages of their annual life
cycle, such as migration, blooming, and reproduction.

• Because species differ in their ability to adjust, asynchronies can develop, increasing species and ecosystem
vulnerability.

• These asynchronies can include mismatches in the timing of migration, breeding, pest avoidance, and food
availability.

• Growth and survival are reduced when migrants arrive at a location before or after food sources are present
 3. Impacts on Ecosystem (cont.)
Range Shifts

• Species are relocating to areas with more tolerable climate conditions.

• While this means a range expansion for some species, for others it means movement into less hospitable
habitat, increased competition, or range reduction, with some species having nowhere to go because they are
already at the top of a mountain or at the limit of land suitable for their habitat

• Range shifts particularly threaten species that:

• cannot move fast enough
• depend on conditions that are becoming more rare (like sea ice)

• Climate change and shifts in ecological conditions could support the spread of pathogens, parasites, and
diseases, with potentially serious effects on human health, agriculture, and fisheries.
• For example, the oyster parasite, Perkinsus marinus, is capable of causing large oyster die-offs. This parasite
has extended its range northward from Chesapeake Bay to Maine, a 310-mile expansion tied to above-
average winter temperatures.
 3. Impacts on Ecosystem (cont.)
Food Web Disruptions

• The impact of climate change on a particular species can ripple

through a food web and affect a wide range of other organisms.

• For example, the figure below shows the complex nature of the
food web for polar bears.

• Not only is the decline of sea ice impairing polar bear

populations by reducing the extent of their primary habitat, it is
also negatively impacting them via food web effects. Declines in
the duration and extent of sea ice in the Arctic leads to declines
in the abundance of ice algae, which thrive in nutrient-rich
pockets in the ice. These algae are eaten by zooplankton, which
are in turn eaten by Arctic cod, an important food source for
many marine mammals, including seals. Seals are eaten by polar
bears. Hence, declines in ice algae can contribute to declines in
polar bear populations
 3. Impacts on Ecosystem (cont.)
Buffer and Threshold Effects

• Ecosystems can serve as natural buffers from extreme events such as wildfires, flooding, and drought.

• Climate change and human modification may restrict ecosystems’ ability to temper the impacts of extreme
conditions, and thus may increase vulnerability to damage.

• Examples include reefs and barrier islands that protect coastal ecosystems from storm surges, wetland
ecosystems that absorb floodwaters, and cyclical wildfires that clear excess forest debris and help regenerate
and nourish the forests
 3. Impacts on Ecosystem (cont.)
Buffer and Threshold Effects (cont.)

• In some cases, ecosystem change occurs rapidly and irreversibly because a threshold, or "tipping point," is
passed

• For example, when coral reefs become stressed from increased ocean temperatures, they expel microorganisms
that live within their tissues and are essential to their health. This is known as coral bleaching. As ocean
temperatures warm and the acidity of the ocean increases, bleaching and coral die-offs are likely to become
more frequent. Chronically stressed coral reefs are less likely to recover.
 3. Impacts on Ecosystem (cont.)
Extinction Risks

• Climate change, along with habitat destruction and pollution, is one of the important stressors that can
contribute to species extinction.

• The IPCC estimates that 20-30% of the plant and animal species evaluated so far in climate change studies are at
risk of extinction if temperatures reach the levels projected to occur by the end of this century.

• Global rates of species extinctions are likely to approach or exceed the upper limit of observed natural rates of
extinction in the fossil record.

• Examples of species that are particularly climate sensitive and could be at risk of significant losses include
animals that are adapted to mountain environments, such as the pika; animals that are dependent on sea ice
habitats, such as ringed seals and polar bears; and coldwater fish, such as salmon.
 3. Impacts on Ecosystem (cont.)
Damage to Forests

• Hurricanes, ice storms, and wind storms can cause damage to forests. Hurricanes Rita and Katrina in 2005
damaged a total of 5,500 acres of forest. The amount of carbon released by these trees as they decay is roughly
equivalent to the net amount of carbon sequestered by all U.S. forests in a single year

• Although many trees are resilient to some degree of drought, increases in temperature could make future
droughts more damaging than those experienced in the past. In addition, drought increases wildfire risk, since
dry trees and shrubs provide fuel to fires. Drought also reduces trees' ability to produce sap, which protects
them from destructive insects such as pine beetles
 4. Impacts on Human Health
• Climate change impacts threaten our health by affecting the food we eat,
the water we drink, the air we breathe, and the weather we experience.

• The severity of these health risks will depend on the ability of public health
and safety systems to address or prepare for these changing threats, as well
as factors such as an individual's behavior, age, gender, and economic
status.

• Impacts will vary based on a where a person lives, how sensitive they are to
health threats, how much they are exposed to climate change impacts, and
how well they and their community are able to adapt to change.

• People in developing countries may be the most vulnerable to health risks

globally, but climate change poses significant threats to health even in
wealthy nations.

• Certain populations, such as children, pregnant women, older adults, and

people with low incomes, face increased risks;
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Rising Temperature

• The human body maintains body temperature in ambient temperatures not exceeding 32 degrees C

• Warmer average temperatures will lead to hotter days and more frequent and longer heat waves. These
changes will lead to an increase in heat-related illnesses/deaths.

• Direct impacts to health:

• Heat cramps – muscular pains and spasms
• Heat exhaustion – body fluids are lost through heavy sweating
• Heat stroke – is life threatening.

• Indirect impacts:
• impacts on ecosystems, water, food, disease-carrying vectors, lifestyle, community resilience.
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Relative Atmospheric Temperature (°C)
Humidity(%) and
26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
Temperature
0% 25 27 28 30 32 33 35 36 37 38
10% 25 27 28 30 32 33 35 37 39 41
20% 26 27 28 30 32 34 37 39 42 46
30% 26 27 29 31 33 36 39 43 47 52
40% 26 28 30 32 35 39 43 48 54 60
50% 27 28 31 34 38 43 49 55 62
60% 27 29 33 37 42 48 55 62
70% 27 31 35 40 47 54 63
80% 28 32 38 44 52 61
90% 28 34 41 49 58
100% 28 36 44 56

At an apparent temperature, (Ta) of:

32–40°C Heat cramps or heat exhaustion possible
41–54°C Heat cramps or heat exhaustion likely, heat stroke possible
54°C< Heat stroke highly likely
Exposure to full sunshine can increase the heat index value by up to 8oC
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Extreme Weather Events

• Increases in the frequency or severity of some extreme weather events, such as extreme precipitation, flooding,
droughts, and storms, threaten the health of people during and after the event.

• The people most at risk include young children, older adults, people with disabilities or medical conditions, and
the poor.

• Extreme events can affect human health in a number of ways by:

• Reducing the availability of safe food and drinking water.
• Damaging roads and bridges, disrupting access to hospitals and pharmacies.
• Interrupting communication, utility, and health care services.
• Contributing to carbon monoxide poisoning from improper use of portable electric generators during and
after storms.
• Creating or worsening mental health impacts such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Extreme Weather Events (cont.)

• Flooding is heavily concentrated in Asia- The top ten countries – in absolute and relative terms - are in south
and south east Asia

Source: 2009 Global Assessment report on Disaster Risk Reduction From: Environment Solutions: www.environmentsolutions.dk
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Extreme Weather Events (cont.)
• Pakistan has suffered devastating floods in the past decade.
• The worst floods were in 2010, when almost 1,800 people were killed and 21 million were affected.

• In 2012, monsoon floods in Pakistan during September, killed more than 400 people and affected more
than 4.5 million others/ Tens of thousands were made homeless by heavy flooding in the provinces of
Balochistan and Sindh where 2.8 million were affected.
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Change in Drinking Water Supply

• Climate change is resulting in:

• Changes to land cover and run-off patterns (erosion)
• Reduction in flows to dams and groundwater aquifers
• Increased evaporation from surface water storages
• Salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers
• Acidification of susceptible inland aquifers
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Air Quality Impacts

• Scientists project that warmer temperatures from climate change will increase the frequency of days with
unhealthy levels of ground-level ozone, a harmful air pollutant, and a component in smog.
• People exposed to higher levels of ground-level ozone are at greater risk of dying prematurely or being
admitted to the hospital for respiratory problems.
• Ground-level ozone can damage lung tissue, reduce lung function, and inflame airways. This can aggravate
asthma or other lung diseases. Children, older adults, outdoor workers, and those with asthma and other
chronic lung diseases are particularly at risk,
• Because warm, stagnant air tends to increase the formation of ozone, climate change is likely to increase
levels of ground-level ozone in already-polluted areas and increase the number of days with poor air
quality.
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Air Quality Impacts (cont.)

• Particulate matter is the term for a category of extremely small particles and liquid droplets suspended in the
atmosphere. Fine particles include those smaller than 2.5 micrometers (about one ten-thousandth of an inch).
Some particulate matter such as dust, wildfire smoke, and sea spray occur naturally, while some is created by
human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels to produce energy. These particles may be emitted directly or
may be formed in the atmosphere from chemical reactions of gases such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and
volatile organic compounds.
• Inhaling fine particles can lead to a broad range of adverse health effects, including lung cancer, chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and cardiovascular disease.
• Climate change is expected to increase the number and severity of wildfires. Particulate matter from
wildfire smoke can often be carried very long distances by the wind, affecting people who live far from the
source of this air pollutant.
• Climate-related changes in stagnant air episodes, wind patterns, emissions from vegetation and the
chemistry of atmospheric pollutants will also affect particulate matter levels.
• Older adults are particularly sensitive to short-term particle exposure, with a higher risk of hospitalization
and death. Outdoor workers like firefighters can also have high exposure.
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Air Quality Impacts (cont.)

• Climate change may affect allergies and respiratory health.

• The spring pollen season is already occurring earlier for certain types of plants, and the length of the season has
increased for some plants with highly allergenic pollen such as ragweed.

• In addition to lengthening the pollen season, rising carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures may also
lead to earlier flowering, more flowers, and increased pollen levels in some plants
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Changes in Drinking Water Supply

• Climate change is resulting in:

• Changes to land cover and run-off patterns (erosion)
• Reduction in flows to dams and groundwater aquifers
• Increased evaporation from surface water storages
• Salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers
• Acidification of susceptible inland aquifers
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Vectorborne Diseases

• Vectorborne diseases are illnesses that are transmitted by disease vectors, which include mosquitoes, ticks, and
fleas.

• These vectors can carry infectious pathogens, such as viruses, bacteria, and protozoa, from animals to humans.

• Changes in temperature, precipitation, and extreme events increases the geographic range of diseases spread
by vectors and can lead to illnesses occurring earlier in the year.
• The geographic range of ticks that carry Lyme disease is limited by temperature. As air temperatures rise,
ticks are likely to become active earlier in the season, and their range is likely to continue to expand
northward. Typical symptoms of Lyme disease include fever, headache, fatigue, and a characteristic skin
rash.
• Mosquitoes thrive in certain climate conditions and can spread diseases like Malaria, Dengue fever and
West Nile virus. Extreme temperatures—too cold, hot, wet, or dry—influence the location and number of
mosquitoes that transmit the diseases.
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Mental Health

• Any changes in a person's physical health or surrounding environment can also have serious impacts on their
mental health. In particular, experiencing an extreme weather event can cause stress and other mental health
consequences, particularly when a person loses loved ones or their home

• Individuals with mental illness are especially vulnerable to extreme heat; studies have found that having a pre-
existing mental illness tripled the risk of death during heat waves. People taking medication for mental illness
that makes it difficult to regulate their body temperature are particularly at risk.

• Even the perceived threat of climate change (for example from reading or watching news reports about climate
change) can influence stress responses and mental health.

• Some groups of people are at higher risk for mental health impacts, such as children and older adults, pregnant
and post-partum women, people with pre-existing mental illness, people with low incomes, and emergency
workers
 4. Impacts on Human Health (cont.)
Food Safety and Nutrition

• Climate change and the direct impacts of higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are
expected to affect food safety and nutrition. Extreme weather events can also disrupt or slow the distribution of
food
• Higher air temperatures can increase cases of Salmonella and other bacteria-related food poisoning
because bacteria grow more rapidly in warm environments. These diseases can cause gastrointestinal
distress and, in severe cases, death. Practices to safeguard food can help avoid these illnesses even as the
climate changes.
• Climate change will have a variety of impacts that may increase the risk of exposure to chemical
contaminants in food. For example, higher sea surface temperatures will lead to higher mercury
concentrations in seafood, and increases in extreme weather events will introduce contaminants into the
food chain through stormwater runoff.
• Higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the air can act as a "fertilizer" for some plants, but lowers the
levels of protein and essential minerals in crops such as wheat, rice, and potatoes, making these foods less
nutritious.
• Extreme events, such as flooding and drought, create challenges for food distribution if roads and
waterways are damaged or made inaccessible.
 5. Impacts on Society

• As a society, we have structured our day-to-day lives

around historical and current climate conditions. We are
accustomed to a normal range of conditions and may be
sensitive to extremes that fall outside of this range.

• Climate change could affect our society through impacts on

a number of different social, cultural, and natural
resources.
 5. Impacts on Society (cont.)
Impacts on Vulnerability and Equity

• Projected climate change will affect certain groups of people more than others, depending on where they live
and their ability to cope with different climate hazards. In some cases, the impacts of climate change are
expected to worsen existing vulnerabilities

• Where people live influences their vulnerability to climate change.

• Over the past decades, population has grown rapidly in coastal areas. These areas are most sensitive to
coastal storms, drought, air pollution, and heat waves.
• Arctic residents will likely experience problems caused by thawing permafrost and reduced sea ice.

• Different groups have different abilities to cope with climate change impacts.
• People who live in poverty may have a difficult time coping with changes. These people have limited
financial resources to cope with heat, relocate or evacuate, or respond to increases in the cost of food.
• Older adults may be among the least able to cope with impacts of climate change.
• Young children are another sensitive age group, since their immune system and other bodily systems are
still developing and they rely on others to care for them in disaster situations.
 5. Impacts on Society (cont.)
Impacts on Vulnerability and Equity (cont.)

• City residents and urban infrastructure have distinct sensitivities to climate change impacts. For example, heat
waves may be amplified in cities because cities absorb more heat during the day than suburban and rural areas.

• Cities are more densely populated than suburban or rural areas. As a result, increases in heat waves, drought, or
violent storms in cities would affect a larger number of people than in suburban or rural areas. Higher
temperatures and more extreme events will likely affect the cost of energy air and water quality, and human
comfort and health in cities.

• City dwellers may also be particularly susceptible to vulnerabilities in aging infrastructure. This includes drainage
and sewer systems, flood and storm protection assets, transportation systems, and power supply during periods
of peak demand, which typically occur during summer heat waves.
 5. Impacts on Society (cont.)
Impacts on Economic Activities and Services

• Communities that developed around the production of different agricultural crops, such as corn, wheat, or
cotton, depend on the climate to support their way of life.
• Climate change will likely cause the ideal climate for these crops to shift.
• Combined with decreasing rural populations, a changing climate may fundamentally change many of these
communities.
• Local production of certain agricultural products may decline dramatically and these crops would then have
to be imported.
 5. Impacts on Society (cont.)
Impacts on Economic Activities and Services (cont.)

• Climate change will also likely affect tourism and recreational activities. Communities that support themselves
through these recreational activities would feel economic impacts as tourism patterns begin to change
• A warming climate and changes in precipitation patterns will likely decrease the number of days when
recreational snow activities such as skiing and snowmobiling can take place.
• An increasing number of wildfires could affect hiking and recreation in parks.
• Beaches could suffer erosion due to sea level rise and storm surge.
• Changes in the migration patterns of fish and animals would affect fishing and hunting.
 5. Impacts on Society (cont.)
Impacts on Economic Activities and Services (cont.)

• Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heat
waves, droughts, and floods.
• These changes are likely to increase losses to property and crops, and cause costly disruptions to society.
• Escalating losses have already affected the availability and affordability of insurance in vulnerable areas.
• Climate change may make it harder and more expensive for many people to insure their homes,
businesses, or other valuable assets in risk-prone areas, or preclude them from insurance altogether.
Insurance is one of the primary mechanisms used to protect people and communities against weather-
related disasters.
 6. Impacts on Water Resources
• In many areas, climate change is likely to increase water
demand while shrinking water supplies.

• This shifting balance would challenge water managers to

simultaneously meet the needs of growing communities,
sensitive ecosystems, farmers, ranchers, energy producers,
and manufacturers.

• In some areas, water shortages will be less of a problem than

increases in runoff, flooding, or sea level rise.

• These effects can reduce the quality of water and can damage
the infrastructure that we use to transport and deliver water.
 6. Impacts on Water Resources
The Water Cycle
 6. Impacts on Water Resources (cont.)
Changes in Water Demand, Water Supply, and Water Quality

• The water cycle is a delicate balance of precipitation, evaporation, and all of the steps in between.

• Warmer temperatures increase the rate of evaporation of water into the atmosphere, in effect increasing the
atmosphere's capacity to "hold" water.

• Increased evaporation may dry out some areas and fall as excess precipitation on other areas.

• Changes in the amount of rain falling during storms provide evidence that the water cycle is already changing.

• Warming winter temperatures cause more precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow.

• Furthermore, rising temperatures cause snow to begin melting earlier in the year. This alters the timing of
streamflow in rivers that have their sources in mountainous areas.
 6. Impacts on Water Resources (cont.)
Changes in Water Demand, Water Supply, and Water Quality (cont.)

• As temperatures rise, people and animals need more water to maintain their health and economy. The amount
of water available for these activities may be reduced as Earth warms and if competition for water resources
increases

• Many areas around the globe currently face water shortages. The amount of water available in these areas is
already limited, and demand will continue to rise as population grows.

• Water quality could suffer in areas experiencing increases in rainfall. Heavy downpours can increase the amount
of runoff into rivers and lakes, washing sediment, nutrients, pollutants, trash, animal waste, and other materials
into water supplies, making them unusable, unsafe, or in need of water treatment.

• Freshwater resources along the coasts face risks from sea level rise. As the sea rises, saltwater moves into
freshwater areas.
6. Impacts on Water Resources (cont.)

Projected Changes in the Water Cycle

 7. Impacts on Energy Sector

• Climate change will increasingly affect the energy

sector.

• Although impacts on energy supply and demand

are the most intuitive, climate change can also
have direct effects on energy endowment,
infrastructure, and transportation and indirect
effects through other economic sectors.
 7. Impacts on Energy Sector (cont.)
Energy Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change (World Bank, 2011)
 7. Impacts on Energy Sector (cont.)
Energy Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change (World Bank, 2011)
 7. Impacts on Energy Sector (cont.)
Energy Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change (World Bank, 2011)
 7. Impacts on Energy Sector (cont.)
Energy Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change (World Bank, 2011)
 Current and Projected Impacts
• https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-
degrees/?utm_source=web&utm_campaign=Redirect#