DR. B. S. Rath 13.02.19 Winter School

Role of Weather Forecasting for
strengthening entrepreneurial development

in agriculture
Dr. B. S. Rath
Professor and Head
Department of Agricultural Meteorology
CA, OUAT, Bhubaneswar
Focus on
• Weather forecasting
• Entrepreneurship development
• Agriculture
– Agriculture is art, science and business of crop
production
• It is not a calendar based approach
• Rather it is dedicated holistic approach
• The concept of business invites entrepreneurship
development for earning more profit
• Recently Agriculture attained industry status
• Entrepreneurship in agriculture is agri-entrepreneuer
What is an entrepreneur?
• An entrepreneur is someone who produces for the market
• An entrepreneur is a determined and creative leader, always looking for
opportunities to improve and expand his business
• An entrepreneur likes to take calculated risks, and assumes
responsibility for both profits and losses
• An entrepreneur is passionate about growing his business and is
constantly looking for new opportunities
• Entrepreneurs are also innovators. They always look for better and more
efficient and profitable ways to do things.
• Being innovative, an important quality for a farmer-entrepreneur,
especially when the business faces strong competition or operates in a
rapidly changing environment
Weather Forecasting
Weather is the dominant factor determining the success or failure
of agricultural enterprises.
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to
predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and
time.
It is estimated that about 50 per cent of the total crop losses can be
avoided through improved weather forecasts.
The weather forecasts also provide guidelines for long range
seasonal planning and selection of crops most suited to anticipated
climatic condition.
If the farmers are informed well in time that the coming weather
may be unfavorable, Wastage can be minimized ,use of plant
protection chemicals , fertilizer application can be saved.
The WMO (2010) classified weather forecasting in different groups, however,
the shorter the range the highest the predictability and the more important
and suitable is the forecast for agriculture. The groups are as follows:
 Now-casting (NC) A description of current weather variables and description
of forecast weather variables for 0-2 hours. A relatively complete set of
variables can be produced (air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed
and direction, solar radiation, precipitation amount and type, cloud amount
and type, and the like).
 Very Short Range Forecast (VSRF) Description of weather variables for up to
12 hours. A relatively complete set of variables can be produced (same as in
nowcasting).
 Short Range Forecast (SRF) Description of weather variables for more than 12
hours and up to 72 hours. A relatively complete set of variables can be
produced (same as in nowcasting).
 Medium Range Forecast (MRF): 3 to 10 days. A relatively complete set of
variables can be produced (same as in nowcasting).
 Long Range Forecast (LRF) From 12-30 days up to two years. Forecast is
usually restricted to some fundamental variables (temperature and
precipitation).
Importance or Significance of Weather Forecast in
agriculture
1. The forecast of the weather events helps for suitable
planning of farm.
2. It helps in to undertake or withheld the sowing
operation
3. It helps in following farm operation:
I) To irrigate the crop or not
II) When to apply fertilizer or not.
III) Whether to start complete harvesting or to withhold it.
4. It also helps in to take measures to fight frost.
5. It helps in transportation and storage of food grains.
6. Helps in management of cultural operations like plugging
harrowing hoeing etc.
7. It helps in measures to protect livestock.
Weather Forecasts…
• Help you decide about
• Crop varieties
• Acreage allocation
• Plant
• Fertilize
• Irrigate
• Spray
• Crop insurance
• Marketing strategy
Weather
WeatherForecasts…
Forecasting
• Can be effectively used in crop planning and its management.

• A comprehensive weather based farm advisory is an interpretation
of how the weather parameters, in future and present will affect
crops, livestock and farm operations and, suggests actions to be
taken.
• The Advisory Services will be more effective if they are given in
simple and local language that farmers can understand it.
• In order to make the Agro-Met Advisory Services more successful
and continuous process, it is to be supported with:
– agro meteorological database,
– crop conditions,
– real time weather, research results on crop-weather
relationships, and
– skilled manpower in multi- disciplinary resources and users
interface.
Weather Forecasts…
Role of weather forecasting in Agriculture
It helps to know the farming systems & their potential. It is important to
• Be culturally sensitive & Win trust of farmers
• Develop alternatives / options / choices
• Demonstrate how climate / weather info helps to take good decisions
• Use seasonal calendar to identify farm activities
• Use matrix to identify critical decisions and relevant climate
parameters
• Hands‐on learning – role plays to illustrate long‐term rainfall
• Advisories based on weather/climate & cropping information.
• Climate predictions and meteorological forecasts with added value
for agriculture.
• Monitoring and early warning services connected to climate.
• Products of agro climatologically characterization;
• Development & validation of adaptation strategies
APPLICATION OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL
INFORMATION
Left Maize cob: Used neither

certified seeds nor Agrometeorological
Information
Middle Maize cob: Used certified seeds

but did not utilize Agrometeorological
Information
Right Maize cob: Used both certified

seeds and Agrometeorological
Information
Bhubaneswar Initiative: First in India
Bhubaneswar GKMS
Block level Advisory, 2012 Pilot GKMS yet to start
District level Advisory, 2006 IAAS started in 2008
Mass SMS to 70000+, 2012 Kissan Portal in 2013
Composite state Odia Bulletin, IMD yet to consider its utility

1999
Why we went for block level
advisory ?
District Level Forecast does’nt hold good at

Block
Experience with Odisha Farmers

Sources of Forecast and Advisory
Top 5 advisory Source Weather source
1. Fellow villagers 1. TV
2. SMS 2. SMS
3. News Paper
3. TV
4. Radio
4. News Paper 5. Fellow Villagers
5. Government Officer
Use of Weather Information
Daily Life Agriculture
1. Rainfall 1. Rainfall
2. Maximum Temperature 2. Low Pressure (Cyclone)
3. Minimum Temperature 3. Flood
4. Wind velocity 4. Drought
5. Humidity 5. Hailstorm
Farmers Expectations & Problems
Top 5 Expectations Top 5 Problems
1. Pest Control 1. Stress tolerant variety not
2. New Variety available
3. Seed Availability 2. Fertilizer not available in
4. Livestock Disease time
5. Weed Control 3. Old Stock Pesticides
4. Unable to identify pest
5. Cost prohibitive
What information we provide?
• Weather forecast
• Contingent measures
• Crop planning
• Crop, Livestock, poultry and fishery management
• Resource use
• Input and output price fixed by the Government
• Government subsidies/programmes
• Market Intelligence
Who are the prominent players of ICT
services in Odisha?
• TATA (mKissan)
• IFFCO.
• Reliance.
• OUAT (Supported by MoES & MOA)
OUTREACH MODE BY OUAT
1. SMS Text
(a)Agrisne:t 1.12 crore outreach cumulate
(b) mKissan : About 2.5 a week
2. SMS Voice : Odisha Mobile Bani
3. Reliance Foundation
4. Television
5. Radio
6. Website and Internet
7. Newspapers
8. E-mail
9. FAX
10. Phones
Way forward…
• Advanced Mobile Technology:
– Visuals
– Target specific
– Feedback
– Voice
• Involvement of rural youth and Civil Societies:
– Village Climate Risk Manager
• Convergence of Programmes
– Cooperation, Civil Supply, Panchayat Raj, Rural
Development, Agriculture, Water Resources,
Energy, etc.
• Encouragement of private players
Farmer level Advisory Initiative
• Static Info:
– Which crop is suitable to my land ?
– How much fertilizer is required for my “X” crop ?
• Dynamic Info:
– What crop shall I plant now ?
– What pest management practice should I do now ?
– Should I irrigate now or wait for Rainfall ?
– Should I sell my produce now or wait ?
– And so on…
Farmer level Advisory Cont…
• Solution
-Farmer level Dynamic Expert system.
• Requirement
– Village level land, soil, rainfall, Temperature, Irrigation
condition.
• Technology
– Remote sensing and GIS.
– Running SWAT model, DSSAT model and using weather
forecast model output.
• Pilot Districts: Baragah and Ganjam
• Consortium: IMD Delhi, IIT Chennai and OUAT,
Bhubaneswar
OUR MANTRA
FARMERS FIRST
8/5/2014 CCKN Meeting

DR. B. S. Rath 13.02.19 Winter School

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Role of Weather Forecasting for

strengthening entrepreneurial development

• Can be effectively used in crop planning and its management.

Left Maize cob: Used neither

Middle Maize cob: Used certified seeds

Right Maize cob: Used both certified

Block level Advisory, 2012 Pilot GKMS yet to start

District level Advisory, 2006 IAAS started in 2008

Mass SMS to 70000+, 2012 Kissan Portal in 2013

Composite state Odia Bulletin, IMD yet to consider its utility

District Level Forecast does’nt hold good at

Experience with Odisha Farmers

8/5/2014 CCKN Meeting

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